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Last week AUD/USD went as high as 1.0844 but found resistance there and the sharp downward correction brought AUD/USD down to 1.0640 before the weekly closing at 1.0673.

On one hand the sharp downward move creates the doubts about the continuing upward move but please note that such a correction could not be ignored. Also please note that the downward move has not broken below the supports of either 22-day EMA or the Kijun-sen support of daily Ichimoku cloud. The currency pair found support almost exactly at the 22-day EMA as well as just above the mentioned Kijun-sen. You may also check the Watchouts-Observation-Alerts sub forum on our Forex forum for a post made about this on Friday.

For the next week, initially we expect some sideways move as long as a firm break below the above mentioned supports i.e. 1.0600 does not take place. 1.0600 is little below both the above mentioned levels. With a support over 1.0600, we expect further upward move to retest the recent 1.0844 and with a break over that towards 1.1000 resistance and with a break over 1.1000, further towards 1.1079 high.

On the downside, if AUD/USD breaks below 1.0600 then we would expect further downward correction towards 1.0470/1.0440. 1.0470 represents the 55-day EMA support as well as the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the upward move during December 15th, 2011 to February 8th, 2012. But even such a move can only be considered as a consolidation move and will not change our bullish outlook. We will expect a strong support in this range i.e. 1.0440/1.0470.

Overall we stay bullish for AUDUSD and will be expecting a move towards 1.1000 if the support levels mentioned above hold good.

You may also check the weekly audusd forecast/Outlook and daily aud/usd analysis at ForexAbode.

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox.com (Dublin) – Euro rose to a two-month high after the Greeks Prime Minister announcement of the approval of the austerity measure required for the second financial bailout. The region currency rose against the Great Britain Pound and the yen as a result of this announcement. The approval which had been stalled due to differences in the spending cuts proposal turns the focus to the Finance Ministers meeting on Feb. 15^th. Investors as well as analysts will put a close eye on the meeting as it is expected to decide whether to release the international rescue.

The Australian dollar showed some strength against the dollar before a report showing that the retail sales increased last month. This has boosted demand for higher-yielding assets. Many analysts however are very pessimistic about the recent gains by the euro and they are saying that this is short lived as the crisis in Europe is far from being resolved despite the positive news from Greece.

The euro rose to $1.3268 at 10:45 am representing a gain of 0.5% which is a two-month high. This is after it had fallen from its highest since Dec. 12 of 1.3322 on Feb. 9. Against the yen, Euro advanced 103.02 which represent an increment of 0.6 percent.  It rose 0.4 percent against the GBP to settle at 83.92 British pence. So far, euro has gained 2.3 percent against the dollar which remained unchanged against the yen.

With Greek lawmakers agreeing on the austerity measures, all eyes are now focusing on the Brussels where decision to give Greece a second bailout of 14.5 billion euro will be made. According to Valentin Marinov, a senior currency strategist at Citigroup Inc., analysts and investors are cautious about the prospects of the euro amidst the debt crisis. However, according to some surveys, the euro has gained against major world currencies over the past week and if the crisis in Greece is resolved amicably, the 17-nation currency will be stronger than most of its peers.

Article provided TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
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By TraderVox.com

Tradervox.com (Dublin) – There is huge doubt clouding the thinking of market participants about Greek austerity measures. Consequently, there hangs a certain amount of risk aversion in the markets and this affected the dollar positively. The US dollar enjoyed a very good day as participants preferred to long the dollar over the euro.EUR/USD closed the day at 1.3173 which was a whopping 100 pips below its opening price.

Despite the faith shown in the USD on Friday, reports that exited the US were generally mixed. Trade balance posted better results than expected as we saw a figure of $48.8 Billion deficit which was slightly better than most analysts expected. However, preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey data did not meet what analysts had expected. We saw a reading of 72.5 whereas analysts had expected a reading of 74.4.

We shall look ahead to the high profile events we expect can move the market this week and there are several expected.

Monday shall represent a quiet day as far as US reports are concerned as we expect no major announcement today.

Tuesday, we expect the retail sales report to be released. We think it will show a 0.8% gain although the core data may show a slightly lower increase of 0.6%.

Wednesday, there is the TIC long term purchase. Forecast shows we can expect a figure of 62.3 billion US Dollars, which if we do, is a significant increase from last month’s figure of 59.8 billion US Dollars. What this shall imply is that the value of purchase by foreign investors in the US is significantly greater than that of US locals.

On Thursday, we have several reports in the shape of building permits and housing starts report, Producer price index, Fed manufacturing index for Philadelphia and initial jobless claims.

CPI data shall conclude the week for US reports on Friday and a 0.3% gain in the core and mainstream version of the reports is what we anticipate.

This week therefore presents us with a lot of Dollar related reports which may push for a very volatile dollar.

Article provided TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox.com (Dublin) – Finally the Greek parliament approved the austerity measures late last night. Euro responded positively to the development and took out 1.3250 during the late Asian session. Early European session saw Euro printing a high of 1.3283. It is currently trading at 1.3266, up about 0.45%. The support may be seen at 1.3250 and below at 1.3190. The resistance may be seen at 1.3280 1.3350. The next task on the Greek deal is to pass the deal approved by the Greek parliament.

Article provided TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox

Source: ForexYard

After a brief dip in value last week, the price of crude oil rose back up this morning. Fears regarding the possibility of Greek austerity measures not being passed drove prices down toward the end of last week. With the news of fresh measures being approved by the Greek parliament last night, crude oil has steadily gone up in value. Since the news broke this morning, oil has gained 94 cents to $99.61 a barrel.

Traders will also want to note the international developments that are effecting prices. These include the impending European embargo of Iranian oil. As the situation in the Middle East grows increasingly tense, there is a possibility that the price of crude oil will remain relatively high. Traders will want to continue monitoring developments in the region for clues as to the direction the commodity will take.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

The sterling has been rapidly losing ground against the Aussie in recent months. Last week was a surprisingly choppy week for the pair with little happening; however, price action came alive later with the market closing out the week with a bearish Hikkake pattern.

Wednesday and Thursday were both inside bars, with Friday completing the bearish Hikkake pattern. The Inside bars were ‘coiled’ (the outside bar, followed by an inside bar, followed by another inside bar which is inside the previous inside bar), further strengthening their bias.

In the chart above we can see the Hikkake pattern. Although we’d have liked to have seen Fridays bar closing as a bearish pin bar, the fact it has falsely broken the highs and then retracing back within the outside bars range is a strong bearish signal.

The pattern is further strengthened as it formed rejecting a strong area of support/resistance as seen below. The area at 1.4800 supported the market back in the summer of 2011. January this year saw the pair falling back towards this area which did not hold as support this time round. The market broke though and has now retested it suggesting we could see a bounce back lower.

We’ll be looking to short the pair in the coming week at or around current levels (Friday close). Stops could be placed just above Fridays highs with targets initially being at last weeks lows, resulting in a good R:R trade

Article by vantage-fx.com

Last week saw the metal taking a breather from its recent bullish momentum with a slightly choppy week producing few trading opportunities. Wednesday, Thursday and Friday saw the market falling towards the both psychological and technical support/resistance level at 1700.

Friday’s daily bar closed as a bullish pin bar suggesting we could see the bulls returning in the coming week. Friday’s price almost reached the important level at 1700 but came just shy. Fridays pin shows a clear and strong rejection of lower support.

As seen in the chart above, the level at 1700 has proven in the past to be both technically and psychologically strong. With Fridays Price closing the day a bullish pin we’ll be looking to long the metal with the anticipation of the bulls returning.

Initially we’ll look to target the next obvious resistance area which comes in at just above 1760. Should the market reach this area we’ll look for price action confirmation for further bullish momentum before exiting the trade or letting it run higher.

Article by vantage-fx.com

Last week GBP/JPY moved as we indicated during the last weekend. The currency pair faced some good resistance just a few pips above the mentioned resistance level of 122.80 but then GBP/JPY broke over that resistance and moved as high as 123.18, found resistance there and closed for the week at 122.29.

The price action and the facts that the resistance did not even cause a break of either 5-day EMA support or the Tenkan-sen support of daily Ichimoku cloud, indicate that the upward sentiments are still holding. The very significant point was a break over 122.80. As we had mentioned, the range between 121.80 to 122.80 had proved to be an extremely strong resistance zone during November 2011 end to December 2011 end.

For the coming week, initially we would expect some sideways move. Even we will not ignore the possibilities of some downward consolidation towards 121.30 but overall we remain favor of some more upward gains. On the upside, a break of 123.18 should take GBPJPY towards 124.20 and a break of 124.35 should also target a break of 125.00 psychological resistance to take GBP/JPY towards 125.60.

Please note that even with the above outlook, our overall outlook is not bullish and we remain in favor of another fall from one of the mentioned resistance levels.

On the downside, if the currency pair breaks below 120.80 then we would expect further downward move towards 121.30. A break below 120.20 would represent a break of Kijun-sen support of daily Ichimoku cloud as well as 22-day EMA. Below this another support expected will be near 120.70 (55-day EMA). At this level even the psychological support of 120.00 ranges will also start coming. Our focus will change back towards deeper moves with a a break of first 120.20 and then 120.00. In such case we would also expect some further downward move towards 119.20. Though we do not expect it during next week but any break below 119.20/119.15 will make our outlook bearish for GBP/JPY for a retest of the recent low of 117.28.

You may also check the weekly gbpjpy forecast/Outlook and daily gbp/jpy technical analysis at ForexAbode.

Last week EUR/JPY moved ahead of 101.46 without any resistance but then found some resistance a few pips below the next resistance level mentioned last week i.e. 102.52. This resistance was also broken and EURJPY went as high as 103.29 and closed for the week at 102.42.

The significant point was the break 102.52, which was the peak of the resistance zone during December 14th to December 27th, 2011.

The price action suggests that we cannot ignore some more upward movement even with the overall bearish outlook for EUR/JPY. For the next week, initially we will stay neutral and would expect some sideways move or even some consolidation/correction but then we would expect some more upward gains towards 103.70 and if the currency pair breaks over 103.70/103.80 resistance zone then further upward but slow move towards the psychological resistance of 104.80/105.20.

Euro movements can be very sensitive to any new updates and hence change of sentiments from Euro region. A small change of sentiments can cause some unexpected volatile moves and hence a very careful approach is required while trading with Euro pairs.
Please note that we are considering the current upward moves only as correction during the overall downtrend. We would be expecting a fall from one of the resistance levels mentioned.

On the downside any firm break below 101.60 will start changing the outlook for further upward correction for EUR/JPY. A break below 101.60 will represent a break of 22-day EAM as well as the break of Tenkan line support of daily Ichimoku cloud. Below 101.60 we would again expect frequent supports near 101.10, 101.55/101.60 and then 99.75. A break below 99.75 will change our focus back towards the resumption of the downward trend and the confirmation of this will come with a break below 99.20. With such a move we can change our focus back towards a retest of 97.03. As we have been mentioning for past couple of weeks that below 97.00 the strong psychological support of 95.00 would start working and any subsequent downward move should be slow and with frequent supports near 96.60 and above 96.20 and 95.60.

You may also check the weekly eurjpy forecast/Outlook and daily eur/jpy technical analysis at ForexAbode.

Last week USD/JPY broke over the resistance of 77.40. The pair went as high as 77.80 and went into into a sideways mode. The weekly close was at 77.62.

The strong upward move suggests that we can expect some more upward gains but we will be careful as overall the currency pair stays in the sideways mode. Also as we had mentioned during last weekend that the upward jump was expected because of the approaching psychological level of 75.00 ranges.

On the upside, above 77.80 we will expect a move towards 78.28 and only a firm break above that will make us expect some more convincing upward gains towards 79.54 or the high of October 31st, 2011. A failure of the break above 77.80 and then 78.28 should take USD/JPY back towards 77.10 and a break below 77.00 will change our focus back towards downside towards the support levels of 76.40 then 76.20 and then 76.00.

Please note that we do not expect much directional move from USDJPY before the currency pair breaks the psychological resistance and support levels of 80.00 and 75.00 respectively.

You may also check the weekly usdjpy forecast/Outlook and daily usd/jpy analysis at ForexAbode.