EUR/USD Climbs to Safety after Positive Unemployment Rate Data

By Fast Brokers – The EUR/USD is rising quickly after basing yesterday in reaction to the surprise decline in Germany’s unemployment change number.  Today’s EU unemployment rate data confirmed the improving employment market in Europe.  The EUR/USD has popped above our 1st and 2nd tier uptrend and 2nd tier downtrend lines, separating itself from the highly psychological 1.40 level.  However, optimism is a bit mixed since the EU CPI flash estimate came in two basis points below analyst expectations.  The EU continues to face deflationary pressures despite declining unemployment and rising consumer confidence.  Therefore, the ECB may need to lower rates again or increase the funding to its alternative liquidity measures since the injection of liquidity doesn’t seem to be having a potent enough impact on prices.  The possibility of an increase in liquidity is creating a drag on the Euro, noted in the subpar performance of the EUR/GBP.  Regardless, the improvement in unemployment and consumer in confidence is key since prices and industrial production should follow later.

Meanwhile, the spread between German and Greek bonds continues to narrow, showing investors are willing to take more risk with their EU investments.  Additionally, we’ve seen mixed yet positive data from the U.S. recently, giving the EUR/USD more motivation to recovery strongly Wednesday’s pullback.  On a cautionary note, Deutsche Bank’s CEO, Josef Ackermann, warned that individual and small business delinquencies may cause another wave of financial turmoil.  However, investors are focusing on the immediate-term once again rather than dire remarks regarding the medium-term.  Global economic fundamentals are improving and immediate-term, concrete data is telling a positive story.

The EUR/USD’s defense of 1.40 has been impressive, yet expected.  The EUR/USD is logging some encouraging volume on the buy-side while the currency pair’s correlations make positive moves.  Despite the recovery in the EUR/USD, the currency pair still has to deal with our 3rd tier downtrend line and previous July highs.  July highs could prove to be problematic since the contraction in CPI and PPI are capping gains in the Euro.  Additionally, the S&P futures are trading just below their highly psychological 1000 mark.  The EUR/USD may need the S&P to tackle 1000 before the currency pair can take down its own July highs.  Since we believe 1000 should prove to be a worthy obstacle, the EUR/USD could continue to slope downwards in a consolidative fashion from daily highs for the near-term.  This analysis seems realistic considering investors may hesitate ahead of the ECB meeting on Wednesday.  The ECB has issued surprise monetary shocks in the past, and an injection of liquidity next week isn’t entirely out of the question considering this week’s pricing data.

Present Price: 1.4195

Resistances: 1.4196, 1.4214, 1.4225, 1.4242, 1.4266

Supports: 1.4176, 1.4165, 1.4154, 1.4136, 1.4117

Psychological: 1.40

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

GBP/USD Locks and Pops from our Inflection Point

By Fast Brokers – The Cable is registering exciting gains after locking in on the inflection point of our 2nd tier uptrend and 3rd tier downtrend lines.  The GBP/USD was denied by our 3rd tier downtrend line on three previous attempts, and finally broke through on the fourth go around.  The Pound’s exertion of a relative strength is paying dividends as the GBP/USD aims for previous July highs.  This is a very bullish move by the GBP/USD, and there are not many barriers left standing in the Cable’s way of 1.70.  Meanwhile, the GBP/USD has separated itself from 1.65 while volume rises to the upside.  We notice similar, large movements in both gold and the EUR/USD, confirming the weight of today’s breakout.  However, the GBP/USD may opt to top out today beneath previous July lows since next week is Britain’s turn to highlight economic data headlines.  Investors may want to see how upcoming economic data fares, and possibly the BOE’s monetary policy decision before making a full commitment to 1.70.

Britain will kick off next week with its Halifax HPI and Manufacturing PMI data points.  Investors will be looking for continual improvement in Britain’s housing market, confirming yesterday’s positive Nationwide HPI and last week’s better than expected BBA Mortgage Approvals data points.  Investors will be paying particularly close attention to the data points leading up to Thursday’s BOE monetary policy decision.  More positive signs in economic data may lead investors to believe that the BOE won’t touch its QE package, a good sign for the GBP/USD.  However, negative data points could have the opposite effect.  However, economic data has already made enough encouraging developments in unemployment and housing, leading us to believe that the BOE meeting will adjourn on a positive note.  Either way, investors will likely trade on the rumor before the BOE makes its decision.

Regardless of fundamentals, the GBP/USD is making a technical bull charge today.  Our 3rd tier downtrend line is the final near-term downtrend line for quite a while, meaning the Cable could have a good amount of room to run.  However, such moves can often get overextended, meaning the currency pair should log a healthy consolidative pullback sometime in the near-future.  We can’t find too many negative things to say about the Cable’s technicals, usually a positive sign.

Present Price: 1.6661

Resistances: 1.6662, 1.6684, 1.6739, 1.6864, 1.6969

Supports: 1.6624, 1.6600, 1.6563, 1.6532, 1.6506

Psychological: 1.70, 1.65

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

USD/JPY Buckles on Climbing Volume after Mixed U.S. Eco. Data

By Fast Brokers – The USD/JPY is back below 95 and our 1st tier uptrend line as it reaches an inflection point with our 2nd tier downtrend line.  Volume is sizable, showing investors are backing today’s decline.  The combination of weaker than expected Japanese Industrial Production and Household Spending coupled with mixed U.S. GDP data regarding consumption is proving too much for the USD/JPY’s uptrend to handle.  The mixed consumption data from the U.S. GDP number is taking some of the luster away from the optimism surrounding America’s economic recovery.  As we explained before, the uptrend in the USD/JPY is presently reliant on a comparatively stronger U.S. economy vs. Japanese economy.  Since both central banks lowered their benchmark rates close to zero while initiating QE and alternative liquidity policies, the valuation of the USD/JPY is heavily influenced by comparative economic performance of the two nations.  An appreciating Yen only inflicts more damage on fragile Japanese exporters since higher prices of Japanese products could discourage foreign consumers.

Meanwhile, the S&P futures are staring up at their highly psychological 1000 level.  The 1000 mark should prove to be a tough obstacle, meaning the S&P could have limited near-term mobility to the upside.  This could cap gains in the USD/JPY since the currency pair is positively correlated with U.S. equities.  Technically speaking, it would be an encouraging sign if the USD/JPY could fight back above our 1st tier uptrend line as it collides with our 2nd tier downtrend line.  The currency pair will need to deal with the psychological 95 level again while our 3rd tier downtrend line gradually approaches.  As for the downside, the USD/JPY has 7/29 and 7/23 lows to fall back on should the situation deteriorate.

Present Price: 94.62

Resistances: 94.99, 95.73, 96.33, 96.77, 97.20

Supports:  94.49, 93.82, 93.28, 92.90, 92.39

Psychological: 95

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

US GDP better than expected in annual 2nd quarter data. Dollar drops in Forex Trading.


The U.S. economy’s annual pace of contraction in the second quarter of 2009 was better than expected and signaled that the economy’s deep recession may be subsiding according to the U.S. Commerce Department. The annualized GDP report released today showed that the U.S. Gross Domestic Product contracted by 1.0 percent in the April to June 2009 quarter from the second quarter level of 2008.  Economists and forecasts were expecting 250150usdchange1the GDP decline to be approximately 1.5 percent for the quarter. The second quarter GDP is a significant improvement from the revised 6.4 percent contraction in the first quarter of 2009. The first quarter decline was revised lower from an original 5.5 percent and marked the largest contraction in almost thirty years while the second quarter decline marks the first time since records began in 1947 that GDP data has shrunk for four quarters in a row.

Contributing to the second quarter GDP fall was a decrease in consumer spending, exports and nonresidential fixed investments.  Exports of goods and services decreased by 7.0 percent after falling by 29.9 percent in the first quarter. Imports fell by 15.1 percent following a 36.4 percent decline in the first quarter. Consumer spending, which makes up approximately two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, decreased in the second quarter by 1.2 percent after increasing in the first quarter by 0.6 percent.

US Dollar falls lower in Forex Trading today.

The U.S. dollar has fallen sharply lower today against the other major currencies in the spot forex market.  The dollar has been weaker versus the euro, British pound, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc, New Zealand dollar and Japanese yen.

The euro has advanced versus the dollar as the EUR/USD has increased to trading at 1.4243 at 12:59 pm after opening the day at 1.4128 at 00:00 GMT according to currency data from Oanda.

The British pound has risen today as the GBP/USD has advanced from its 1.6520 opening exchange rate to trading at 1.6697 usd per gbp.

The dollar has fallen lower versus the Japanese yen today and the pair is trading at 94.66 after opening at the day at the 95.35 exchange rate.

The dollar is falling slightly versus the Canadian loonie as the USD/CAD trades at the exchange rate of 1.0793 after opening the day at 1.0803.

The dollar has declined against the Swiss franc as the USD/CHF trades at 1.0695 after opening at 1.0847 today.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars have both advanced higher today against the USD. The AUD/USD has climbed from its 0.8286 opening rate to trading at 0.8322 later today.  The NZD/USD has increased from its 0.6557 opening to trading at 0.6596 today.

GBP/USD Chart – The British Pound sharply rising today versus the US Dollar in forex trading and reached over the 1.6700 threshold.

Today's Forex Chart
Today's Forex Chart

U.S. Dollar to Go Volatile on the Release of Advance GDP Figures

Source: ForexYard

The USD is set to go extremely volatile today on the release of Advance GDP figures for the 2nd quarter from the U.S. economy at 12:30 GMT. The forecasted results are -1.4%, significantly better than the 1st quarter results of -5.5%. The other things that are expected to move the market to day are the publication of the CPI Flash Estimate and the Unemployment Rate from the Euro-Zone. In order to make some big profits today, open you positions in the USD, EUR, GBP, and JPY now, as Friday’s trading gets under way.

Economic News

USD – USD Slides on Further Signs of Recovery

The Dollar slid yesterday, as the U.S. and global economy showed further signs of recovery. This was due to both the predictions for today’s U.S. GDP figures, which show the U.S. economy declined at a much slower pace the in the 2nd quarter than the 1st, and global corporate earnings figures led to a jump in optimism. In turn, this helped spark a global stock rally, as investors took advantage of the fresh optimism to snap up higher-yielding currencies, such as the EUR and Australian Dollar.

The USD fell against the EUR by 75 pips to 1.4128. This comes about as Germany and the Euro-Zone released better than expected unemployment and consumer confidence figures. The USD also tumbled against the GBP, as Britain posted optimistic consumer confidence figures. The GBP/USD pair closed higher by 150 pips at the 1.6519 level. Against the Japanese Yen, the Dollar rose 0.5% to 95.35 Yen, extending gains after government data showed a drop in continuing claims, boosting optimism about the U.S. labor market.

Today, there is a reasonably strong possibility that much of the same behavior in the forex market will continue. This is likely to occur as traders continue to trade on Thursday’s optimism. This may continue to drive the USD lower against its major currency [pairs. Also, it is advisable for traders to follow the following releases from the U.S. economy: Advance GDP and Employment Cost Index at 12:30 GMT and the Chicago PMI at 13:45 GMT. So if you want to make some bug money as end-of-week trading kicks in open your USD positions now.

EUR – EUR Rallies on Improved Global Economic Sentiment

The EUR was driven higher vs. the U.S Dollar yesterday by data showing an improvement in Euro-Zone economic sentiment in July, as well as an unexpected fall in German unemployment, which was seen as an encouraging sign for the region’s recovery prospects. The European currency also gained more ground versus the Yen to hit session highs on Thursday as a sharp rally in stocks boosted risk appetite. The EUR rose as high as 134.86 Yen, and finished trading at 134.67 Yen.

The EUR rose dramatically against the USD to $1.4128, rebounding from a 2 week low near the $1.40 level. The Euro-Zone single currency briefly pared gains after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said the EUR exchange rate looks somewhat on the strong side relative to its fundamentals. According to analysts, the EUR may pare its monthly gains against the U.S Dollar today prior to reports that will show deflation deepened in the 16-nation area, and job losses increased.

The GBP leaped against the U.S. Dollar on Thursday, after a report showed British house prices climbed in July for a 3rd month. This led the British Pound to extend its gains, hitting a 4 week high against the EUR. The Pound also gained against the EUR and USD due to a report released yesterday showing British consumer confidence at its highest level since April 2008. This was yet another sign that Britain is rising out of the recession. Analysts expect much of the gains for the EUR and GBP may continue throughout today’s trading.

JPY – JPY Plummets against the Major Currencies

The Japanese Yen fell against its most traded currencies on Thursday as the leading economies published a string of optimistic figures. This led to global stocks rising for a 3rd straight week, reducing demand for the relative safety of the Japanese currency. Looking at the bigger picture; positive economic data, rising stocks and better-than- expected earnings improved risk appetite, analysts said. Additionally, the improved risk appetite means that the safe-haven currencies will weaken further.

A wave of Japanese mutual funds will be launched today, keeping the Yen soft against the U.S Dollar and higher-yielding currencies, such as the Australian Dollar. But in the near term, the rush in the launching of these funds is expected to have only a limited impact, as a rally in global stocks and commodities in the past few weeks has made fund managers cautious about immediately putting money to work, many traders believe.

Crude Oil – Oil Rebounds On Market Optimism

Crude Oil rose above $67.50 a barrel on Thursday, boosted by higher stock markets in Europe and Asia, better than expected corporate results and data suggesting the economic downturn is bottoming out. The more than 5% rally yesterday, the highest gain in more than 3 months was boosted as continuing U.S. jobless claims figures improved sentiment in the energy sector. All of this is further evidence that the leading economies may rise out of recession in the coming months.

Oil may continue to gain on increased optimism that the global economic decline will ease. The number of people collecting unemployment insurance decreased for a third week, according to the U.S. Labor Department. A U.S. report yesterday showed that Crude supplies unexpectedly climbed as demand lagged behind year-earlier levels. However, this failed to drive prices lower, as the price of Crude also soared on a extremely weak USD.

Technical News


The cross rose to the 1.4128 level yesterday, in response to a 2 day decline in the pair. The chart’s oscillators seem to be showing mixed data. On one hand, the weekly chart’s Slow Stochastic signals that the upward movement will continue today. On the other hand, the RSI and the Stochastic Slow of the hourly chart shows that the pair has run out of steam, and that a bearish correction is imminent. Entering the pair when the downward breach occurs may turn out to pay off today.


The GBP/USD cross soared yesterday and currently stands at 1.6535. The daily chart’s oscillators seem to be neutral. However, the daily chart’s RSI and MACD signal that the pair is overbought, and that a bearish correction may take place today. This is also supported by the RSI of the weekly chart. Going short on the pair may be a wise move today, as traders seek to make end-of-week profits.


The cross experienced its 2nd day of gains, and is currently trading at 95.35. There is some technical data that supports the pair to hit the 96.00 mark today. However, the chart’s oscillators seem to be showing misleading signals. The daily chart’s MACD and the weekly chart’s Stochastic slow support a bullish move today. However, the hourly charts MACD and 4-hour chart’s Stochastic Slow signal a bearish trend today. Entering the pair when the signals are clearer may be the right choice today.


The USD/CHF cross declined slightly yesterday, despite climbing the 2 previous days. The pair is currently trading at the 1.0860 level, and there is much technical data to support a bullish move today. The Stochastic Slow on all of the charts signals an upward direction for the volatile pair today. This is also supported by the RSI of the daily chart. Going long with tight stops may turn out to pay off today, as Friday’s trading kicks in.

The Wild Card – Crude Oil

Crude Oil soared yesterday to above $67 a barrel. The oscillators of the hourly chart seem to show that the recent bullish trend for the black gold may be short lived, and that a bearish correction may be imminent. The RSI of the weekly chart and MACD of the daily chart also support the view that the price of Crude may go bearish in the near future. Entering the trend at an early stage, may turn out to be a wise choice for forex traders today.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)

By GCI Fx Research

The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.4095 level and was supported around the $1.4010 level.  Strong gains in U.S. equities markets led to a difficult day for the U.S. dollar as risk appetite expanded and the greenback’s safe haven appeal diminished. The International Monetary Fund reported recessionary problems in the eurozone are receding.  The IMF now foresees a 4.8% decline in gross domestic product in the eurozone this year.  Data released in the U.S. today saw weekly initial jobless claims up 25,000 to 584,000 while continuing jobless claims were off 54,000 to 6.197 million.  The Fed released its July Beige Book yesterday and reported the recession is easing in most regions of the country, noting “the pace of decline has moderated since the last report or that activity has begun to stabilize, albeit at a low level.”  In eurozone news, German July unemployment fell a surprising 6,000 on an adjusted basis and were up 52,000 on a non-adjusted basis, equivalent to 8.2% of the workforce.  Other data released today saw German June plant, machinery orders slump 46% y/y.  The European Commission reported business and consumer confidence in the eurozone improved in July with the overall Economic Sentiment Indicator rising sharply to an eight-month high of 76.0 from 73.2 in June.  Similarly, July industrial confidence improved to -30 from -32 in June and consumer confidence was lifted to -23 from -25.  Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3900 figure.

¥/ CNY

The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥95.65 level and was supported around the ¥94.80 level.  Data released in Japan overnight saw June industrial output climb 2.4% m/m and 8.3% q/q in April-June, – the largest jump since 1953 – while the July trade deficit printed at ¥38.415 billion in the first ten days of July, off 18.0% y/y.  Bank of Japan Policy Board member Noda said the central bank has no plans to change its current easy monetary policy and remains sensitive to an increase in long-term interest rates that could inhibit the economic recovery.  Noda added “As corporate earnings conditions remain severe, uncertainty over final demand is high even after progress in inventory adjustment, and concerns over fundraising are not receding.”  Some of the BoJ’s temporary liquidity measures will expire on 31 December as of now and Noda said keeping the measures for some time could damage the economy.  Noda is one of the more hawkish members of the Policy Board and his remarks evidence caution at the central bank.  The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 0.51% to close at ¥10,165.21.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥104.15 level.  The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥134.70 level and was supported around the ¥133.20 level.  The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¥158.00 figure while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-à-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¥87.90 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar lost ground vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8293 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8285.  Chinese officials made it clear overnight that they will continue to keep monetary policy loose and this supported international equity markets.  Traders had noted chatter yesterday suggesting China may begin to restrict bank lending further.

Daily Market Commentary provided by GCI Financial Ltd.

GCI Financial Ltd (”GCI”) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (”Forex”) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (”CFDs”) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.

DISCLAIMER: GCI’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Forex Signal Trading As an Assistance Tool For Forex Traders

By Hatem Serag

Forex signals providers has become popular services nowadays. Most forex traders use it as an assistance analytical tool to help them take the proper trading decision. This services are run by forex trading experts who possess a high level of market analysis experience where they can combine several indicators such as moving averages, trend lines, MACD, stochastic…etc. in order to generate an entry and exit signals which implies a high winning probability.

Most forex signal providers offer their signals only for the popular currency pairs such as: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD and USD/CHF. These currency pairs constitute about %80 of the market volume and are traded extensively by the majority of forex traders everywhere.

The forex signal providers offer their services for the public traders on a monthly subscription basis, where they send their signals out to their members through emails, SMS, or cell phone. The trader may be charged a subscription fee which ranges between $50 and $150 per month based on the service quality and the numbers of currency pairs they provide trading signals for.

The forex signal providers just send the entry price, stop loss price and take profit price. They do not offer any additional technical information about the method they used to generate their entry and exit signals. This makes the trader blindly follow their signals without being able to make a proper judgment on their signals quality unless he or she has a high degree of technical analysis experience.

How to Determine the Quality level of a Forex Signals Service?

The first step to make a judgment on a service is to ask for their activity history, this will prove or deny their claims.

The common mistake which most traders make is that they completely rely on these signals as a sole indicator to enter the market. Really these services save the trader a lot of time watching the market trying to pick a trading opportunity. However, the right technique should any one do is to use these signals as an extra indicators which help qualify his or her trading decision, in other words, the trader should make his own analysis for the price action and end with a personal prediction to the market movement based on his experience, then use these signals to approve or deny this decision.

Most traders use the signal provider services for a short period of time before making a judgment whether it’s a good or bad service. The next step to make a fair judgment, the trader should use the service for a relatively long period of time and make his statistics about the quality of this service and whether he or she will continue using it or not.

Final note:

As a trader, you should not relay completely on signal provider service. When you generate your own signals, you combine several trading indicators like trend lines, moving average, stochastic…etc, in order to get a high probable trade signal. Meanwhile, providers might choose to employ just one indicator in order to generate their signals, which may not be 100% accurate. This justifies why you should compare and contrast signals between one another and for the movement of the currency price.

Abut the Author

By: Hatem Serag – Read more detail review on this page: Forex Signals . On my website: Forex Courses you will find many valuable in depth reviews for the popular forex software and forex robots to help picking the one that suits your trading needs.

Should you use Forex robots?

By Daniel Hoffner

Before you consider purchasing a Forex Robot, you have to pick a Forex broker to
work with, and a “platform” to use. Which trading platform to use? There are
hundreds of brokers in the market, which means that you connect to them through
the internet, and trade through them. Usually each broker has his own platform –
how your screen looks, how to track of your funds, etc. When choosing a broker
its important to pick a big, regulated company, so that one morning you won’t
wake up to find that your company has gone bankrupt, together with your money.
Read the about tab on his main menu.

It is preferable, but not a must to pick a broker who uses a “metatrader 4” platform. Since it has become popular lately, many robots are written for it. Some brokers offer free money, but that doesn’t mean too much, as you can’t redeem it, but it lets you enlarge your margin. Pick
a broker that gives a margin of at least 100:1 (not more than 400:1). Since
we’ll recommend later on working with intraday trades, therefore its important
to pick a broker who uses tenths of pips (like fxcm). This decreases the
spreads, which is meaningful in intraday trading.

Lastly, always when starting to work with a new broker using his demo
platform. Mistakes made by unskilled fingers can cost a lot of money (I meant to
buy not sell).

Forex robots (also called expert advisors) cost money. The ones that cost no
money are usually worth that much. Robots can be very useful, especially for
people who don’t have the time or patience to sit in front of the computer all
day. Of course, they don’t profit 100% of the time, so its advisable to buy a
robot which has a high percentages of wins, and a refund offer if you are not
satisfied. You can find recommended robots at %LINK1% or %LINK2%. My experience
tells me that robots are better on opening the positions, than closing them. The
best way, therefore is to let the robot open the position, then monitor the
trade carefully, and decide for yourself when to close the position – if the
robot hasn’t closed it yet.

There are all also mechanical systems that indicate
to you exactly when you should buy/sell. But you have to be in front of the
computer to do the trade, but you have more control.

When deciding manually to close your position, if you’ve reached your take
profit level, let the position close. Don’t let the position remain open in the
hope that it will continue in your favor, because many times the profit you
could have earned will be wiped out. A bird in hand…

Even if you haven’t reached your desired profit, but the trading becomes wobbly
over a time, that means that the trading can go against you, so its better to
quit while ahead. This is especially true when all the trends/indicators that
caused you to open the trade, have changed direction.

About the Author

If you are interested in looking over a variety of the best and latest Forex
Autopilots (also called Expert Advisors or Forex Robots) you can visit my site

Crude Oil Price Crashes after Unusually High Inventory Data

Source: ForexYard

The price of Crude Oil experienced a sharp decline in prices yesterday after a U.S. inventories report highlighted a sudden surge in energy supplies. While these reports may carry mixed messages about demand, supply, and growth expectations, the message yesterday was quite clear: demand is plummeting. Many analysts were expecting a draw-back in prices after last week’s surge, but the inventory report only demonstrated how unwanted this commodity has become, which only put additional weight on the downward pressure this commodity was already expecting.

Economic News

USD – Dollar Extends Profits against the Majors

The Dollar continues to strengthen against all the major currencies. During yesterday’s session the greenback was traded near a two-week high versus the EUR. The Dollar also marked a significant uptrend against the Pound and Yen.

It seems that the main reason for the USD’s appreciation yesterday came as a result of the positive Core Durable Goods Orders monthly report, as well as a statement by China that it will maintain a more loose monetary policy. Whilst the Durable Goods figures reported a drop of 2.5% in June, mainly as a result of the weak demand for new civilian aircraft and defense equipment, it seems that investors were more impressed by the 1.1% rise in the Core Orders during June.

The difference between the two reports is that the Core report measures the change in the total value of new purchases orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods, excluding transportation items. Orders for aircraft are known to be very volatile, and thus have the potential to distort the underlying trend. This is why investors tend to attribute more importance to the Core report. The positive figure marked the third consecutive month in which this report delivered signs of positive growth, driving investors to believe that the global recession is reaching its end.

As for today, the main publication from the U.S economy looks to be the weekly Unemployment Claims report at 12:30 GMT. Currently, while all the major indicators of the U.S economy are showing signs of improvement, it is only the job sector which continues to deliver negative figures. Analysts forecast that 578K individuals have filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. If the actual result will be similar, this could be the harshest unemployment figures in the last month. Such a result may help drive the demand for the safety of the USD and drive its recent bullishness even higher.

EUR – German CPI Marks First Annual Decline in 22 Years!

The EUR dropped yesterday against most of the major currencies. The EUR is currently traded near a two weeks low against the Dollar, as the pair fell to the 1.40 level. The EUR also saw a sharp drop against the Pound during yesterday’s session.

The EUR’s slide came as a result of the unexpected negative German Preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. This indicator measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers in Germany. Considering the fact the Germany currently holds the strongest and relatively healthiest economy in the Euro-Zone, the inflation indicators from this nation have a large impact on the EUR. The indicator showed a drop of 0.1% in July.

More severely, this report has marked the first annual decline in consumer prices in Germany in more than 22 years! It appears to be the drop in energy and food costs, which took place as a result of the global recession, which created the poor annual decline in German CPI. It now seems quite certain that for any negative indicators from the German economy such as this one have the potential to weaken the EUR in the near future.

Looking ahead to today, another significant report is scheduled from the German economy. The German Unemployment Change, which measures the change in the number of unemployed people during the previous month, is expected at 07:55 GMT. Analysts have forecasted that unemployment in Germany increased by 44K in June. If the results are indeed close to this figure, the EUR might continue to depreciate against the major currencies.

JPY – Yen Slides on Poor Retail Sales Release

The Yen underwent a bearish session against most of the major currencies yesterday. The JPY dropped over 100 pips versus the Dollar, and over 200 pips against the Pound.

The Yen dropped yesterday on poor Retails Sales data. The report showed that the total value of sales at the retail level dropped by 3.0% in June, failing to reach expectations for a 2.5% drop. Furthermore, Japan’s retails sales fell for a 10th month in June, making the longest losing streak since 2003. It seems that even though the Japanese economy is showing signs of recovering, mainly due to the positive export figures, the Japanese citizens are reluctant to resume last year’s consumption levels, an indication that optimism may be lacking in Japan.

As for today, a batch of data is expected from the Japanese economy. Traders are advised to follow the Tokyo Core Consumer Price Index report. This report is a leading inflationary indicator for Japan, and thus tends to have a large impact on the JPY’s value. If current expectations for a 1.7% drop will be similar to the real result, the Yen might continue to weaken against the major currencies in late-trading today.

Crude Oil – Will Crude Oil Drop Below $60 a Barrel?

Crude Oil prices continued to slide yesterday. Yesterday morning, a barrel of oil was valued near $66, but the current price is trading for less than $63. The main reason for the sharp cut in crude oil prices yesterday was the Crude Oil Inventories report. The report shows an unexpected surge in U.S. energy stockpiles. While analysts expected a drop of 1.1M barrels, the actual result showed that stockpiles surged by 5.1M barrels!

Most analysts had anticipated a pull-back in prices since Oil was seemingly over-bought technically and fundamentally, but the high inventories report simply put added weight to this expected downward pressure. In addition, the USD continued to strengthen yesterday. Crude Oil is valued in Dollars, and as such, tends to fall under the weight of a strong Dollar.

Looking ahead to today, traders are advised to follow the Natural Gas Storage report, scheduled at 14:30 GMT. This is more energy data that has the potential to influence oil prices by showing a continued trend of high stockpiles, indicating low demand. Traders should also consider the Dollar’s movements in today’s trading, as it has a large effect on commodity values.

Technical News


After a steady decline in trading yesterday, the price of this pair now sits in the over-sold territory on the 4-hour chart’s RSI, indicating a level of upward pressure. The fresh bullish cross on the 4-hour Slow Stochastic, however, indicates that an upward correction is imminent. Going long with tight stops may be a smart choice today.


There appears to be a recent bullish cross on the 4-hour Slow Stochastic and an impending bullish cross on the 4-hour MACD, indicating that an upward movement may be on its way. This pair is currently range-trading, however, and has reached the lower border of its channel, supporting the notion that an upward move is indeed imminent. Buying on lows and selling on highs within this channel might be a wise choice.


The bullish channel on this pair, seen in the 4-hour chart, may be coming to a volatile ending today as the Bollinger Bands on the hourly chart are beginning to tighten drastically. The bearish cross on the 4-hour Slow Stochastic will likely help the price’s impending downward movement prior to its volatile jump. Waiting for the breach then jumping on the trend may be the best strategy today.


A volatile breach of the 4-hour chart’s Bollinger Bands occurred at the end of yesterday’s trading, which has pushed this pair’s indicators into over-sold territory. The 4-hour Slow Stochastic has a fresh bearish cross and its RSI is highlighting the downward pressure from the over-sold position. Going short and riding out the correction appears to be preferable today.

The Wild Card – Crude Oil

Yesterday’s volatile downward plunge has pushed many short- and mid-term indicators into showing an impending correction. However, the long-term indicators on the daily chart show that there may still be room to run for this bearish movement. The sudden pull-back in Crude Oil’s price may not yet be finished and, as such, forex traders may want to set their short positions as soon as possible to capture some of the remaining bearish movement.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Dollar Rises and Oil Drops


The 2 leading trends in the market at the moment are the bullish US Dollar and bearish commodities, especially Crude Oil and Gold. It is very clear that the two trends are highly correlated, thus whenever one of them will show signs of reversing, the other one is likely to follow.

The main reasons for these trends are statements from China that it will maintain a loose monetary policy, as well as yesterday’s unexpected high Crude Oil Inventories report. Crude Oil Inventories simply showed that oil supplies in the U.S have grown substantially; highlighting weak demand and possibly lower growth forecasts. Every time this report offers surprising results, a sharp change in oil’s value is promptly followed. This time around, the result was to push the price of Oil lower than was anticipated.

Today’s leading publications:
07:55 (GMT) – German Unemployment Change:

This report will show if the German unemployment condition has worsened in line with expectation during June. If the actual result will be similar to forecasts, the EUR is expected to drop.

12:30 (GMT) – U.S Unemployment Claims:

This report shows the changes in U.S unemployment during the last week. Analysts forecasted that 573K people have lost their jobs during the past week. Such result will be the worst result in the past 4 weeks and is likely to strengthen the demand for the safety of the Dollar. However, if the actual result will be somewhat better, then the Dollar might lose some steam.