InvestMacro FX

• The technical indicators that are used are the Williams Percent Ranges, Relative Strength Index (RSI), and Stochastic Slow.

• Point 1: The Slow Stochastic indicates a bearish cross, signaling that the next move may be in a downward direction.

• Point 2: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that the price of this cross currently floats in the overbought territory, signaling downward pressure.

• Point 3: The Williams Percent Ranges signals further bearishness for the pair, which in turn indicates further downward pressure to occur anytime soon.

EUR/AUD Daily Chart

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By Russell Glaser – The range trading that has trapped the price of spot crude oil appears to be over as the commodity is breaking out of the consolidation pattern.

The 15-minute chart for spot crude oil shows the commodity has been consolidating between the prices of 72.35 and 71.50 for the past 21 hours. Recently the pair broke out of the range, only to retrace back to the upper line of the range.

This presents traders with a good opportunity to trade a breakout strategy for spot crude oil. Now that the price has traced back to the upper line, traders should go long, with a target of approximately 85 pips, which is the distance of the consolidation pattern. A limit order to take profit would be at roughly $73.20, just below the resistance line at 73.25.

A protective stop should be used in case of a false breakout, and placed inside the consolidation range near the level of $72.05.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Source: ForexYard

The EUR/USD pair continued last week rally during Tuesday trading session, which was the first trading day in the U.S. during this short trading week. The strength of the Euro came along with the Non Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s index which came lower than expected at 53.8. This figure was released after an array of disappointing data, adding to concern about U.S. continual growth. The EUR/USD pair traded higher through the day but paired some of its gains due to analysts warning about the Euro.

Economic News

USD – ISM Non Manufacturing Came Lower Than Expected

The dollar fell against most of its major counterparts Tuesday after data showed Non- Manufacturing PMI fell in June, raising doubts about the U.S. economy and causing investors to reduce exposure to risk. Analysts are concerned the U.S. would not grow in 2010 as anticipated earlier in spite of fiscal packages introduced during 2009-2010. These concerns are turning the U.S. Dollar weaker against its major counterparts.

The EUR/USD cross is actually currently trading higher by 60 pips today at 1.2600 levels. Against the Yen, the Dollar is trading lower by 30 pips at around 87.50 which served as a significant support line. The AUD and CAD were among the biggest gainers yesterday and closed trading at $0.8488 and 1.0560 respectively.

Today is a quiet news day for the U.S., as there are no economic data releases on the calendar today. However, Japan and Euro-zone appear to be releasing the bulk of today’s news, which means we may see a day of trading with low liquidity and therefore increased volatility. Day-traders can take advantage of these intense trading days by swinging within the larger-than-normal price fluctuations.

EUR – Rally Continued Due to Weak U.S. Disappointing PMI figures

The Euro continued its rally against the U.S. Dollar. The rally was supported by an array of weak economic data since last week. The latest figure, Non Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s index, released yesterday came less than expected. The EUR traded much higher against the USD during yesterday’s trading session as it reached $1.2661. Thereafter it paired some of it gains, while analysts raised concerns about the EUR. The rally thus far is seen more as a correction as traders locked recent profits from betting against the EUR. The Euro is also supported by the speculation that China is buying the Euro to keep the European currency high and support local export to Europe.

The EUR also staged a rally versus the British Pound; EUR/GBP is currently trading at 0.8330, two weeks high, after hitting 19-month lows at a 0.8065.

Looking ahead to today, the most important economic indicator scheduled to be released from the Euro-Zone is the German Factory Orders at 10:00 GMT. Analysts are forecasting this figure to decrease from its previous reading. Traders will be paying close attention to today’s announcement as a stronger than expected result may continue to boost the EUR in the short-term.

JPY – Remained a Safe Heaven Currency

The JPY strengthen slightly against the U.S. Dollar as investors expressed their concerns about the U.S. economy by selling the U.S. Dollar and buying the Japanese yen. The Yen traded mixed yesterday against its major counterparts. It strengthened against the British pound, but was weaker against AUD and the EUR.

Looking ahead to today traders should pay attention to the 87.33 support line, crossing down may take the USD/JPY even lower. Some analysts estimate that the yen should rebound its recent rally against the USD.

Crude Oil – Worries about Double Dip Hit Crude Oil price

Crude Oil price was slightly higher yesterday after recovery concerns sent the price lower by more than 8% during last week trading session. It is expected to remain flat today or little change, due to low volume of economic news released. However, price might decline further in the short term even toward $65 if economic figures continue to deteriorate. Investors are worried about a possible double dip, or a renewed recession. Crude Oil is trading at 72.15, during early trading hours.

Gold prices have dropped significantly during early trading hours today, after reaching record high levels last week. Gold is considered a safe haven when expectations are for high inflation. Recent data indicating a possible deflation is sending investors away from holding Gold. Gold price decline trend is expected to continue if more U.S. figures indicate global recovery is slowing. Gold price is trading at 1189.15 during early trading hours.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The bullish trend is loosing its steam and the pair seems to consolidate around the 1.2585 level. The daily chart’s Slow Stochastic is showing a fresh bearish cross suggesting that downwards correction might take place in the nearest time frame. When the downwards breach occurs, going short with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.

GBP/USD

The pair has been range-trading for a while now, with no specific direction. The Daily chart’s Slow Stochastic providing us with mixed signals. All oscillators on the 4 hour chart do not provide a clear direction as well. Waiting for a clearer sign on the hourlies might be a good strategy today.

USD/JPY

The cross has been dropping for the past month now, as it now stands at the 87.50 level. However, the daily Chart’s RSI is already floating in the oversold territory indicating that a bullish correction might take place in the nearest future. Going long with tight stops may turn out to be the right choice today.

USD/CHF

The pair has recorded much bearish behavior in the past several days. However, the technical data indicates that this trend may reverse anytime soon. For example, the daily chart’s Stochastic Slow signals that a bullish reversal is imminent. An upward trend today is also supported by the RSI. Going long with tight stops may turn out to pay off today.

The Wild Card

Gold

Gold prices have dropped significantly yesterday and peaked at $1189.15 an ounce. However, on the daily chart RSI is floating in an oversold territory suggests that a bullish correction is impending. This might be a great opportunity for forex traders to enter the trend at a very early stage.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By eToro – The Euro moved higher as investors attention focused on US weakness as opposed to the European debt crisis.  The EUR/USD touched resistance at 1.2662, before reversing course and edging down.  The Euro is likely to break through 1.2670 and test the 1.2750 level. Click here to read the full daily Review

Forex Market Analysis provided by eToro

Disclaimer: Trading in the Foreign Exchange market might carry potential rewards, but also potential risks. You must be aware of the risks and are willing to accept them in order to trade in the foreign exchange market. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

EURUSD’s rise from 1.2150 extends further to as high as 1.2662. Now the pair is facing the upper boundary of the price channel on 4-hour chart, consolidation of uptrend would more likely be seen in a couple of days. Key support is now at 1.2480, a break below this level will indicate that a cycle top has be formed, and the rise from 1.2150 has completed, then pullback to lower boundary of the channel could be seen. However, as long as 1.2480 support holds, the pair remains in uptrend from 1.2150, and another rise to 1.3000 is still possible.

Daily Forex Forecast

By GCI Forex Research

Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)

€

The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2655 level and was supported around the $1.2480 level.  The common currency reached its highest level since 21 May as dealers were less risk-averse on the heels of stronger global equity markets.  Liquidity was normalized following the U.S. Independence Day holiday weekend.  Yields on German and French government bonds are hovering near record lows and Austria successfully sold €1.32 billion in bonds today.  Germany plans to auction as much as €5 billion in ten-year debt tomorrow.  Most traders expect European Central Bank will keep monetary policy unchanged on Thursday.  ECB President Trichet will speak after the ECB’s decision is announced and he is expected to discuss liquidity provisions by the ECB and  the stress tests that will be conducted on eurozone banks.  An anonymous ECB official today reported the central bank is pleased with the manner in which the euro has stabilized and suggested the ECB may continue with its extraordinary monetary policy measures until 2011.  There is also talk that German ECB officials want to end the ECB’s asset purchase program this year.  ECB official Noyer said economic growth needs to be “balanced and sustainable.”  Data to be released in the eurozone tomorrow include EMU-16 Q1 gross domestic product, German May factory orders, and the French May trade balance.  In U.S. news, data released today saw the June ISM non-manufacturing index decline more-than-expected to 53.8, lower than the May print of 55.4.  Data to be released tomorrow include MBA mortgage applications.  Richmond Fed President Lacker was quoted in the Japanese media as saying consumer spending is “moderately strong” while Dallas Fed President Fisher reported households are “cautious.”  Economists are closely scrutinizing U.S. economic data to see if the recent moderation in economic growth worsens and the U.S. encounters a double dip recession.  The U.S. economy is also experiencing disinflationary pressures.  Euro offers are cited around the US$ 1.2720 level.

¥/ CNY

The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥87.95 level and was supported around the ¥87.40 level.  U.S. dollar sentiment eroded further and the pair stopped just short of testing key technical support around the ¥87.20 level.  The yen reversed course and was given across the board as dealers cited better risk-taking that followed the release of stronger-than-expected Australian May trade surplus data.  Data released in Japan overnight saw the May leading index fall to 98.7 while the May coincident index ticked lower to 101.2.   Bank of Japan official Toyama yesterday said the Tokyo interbank offered rate is “substantially” deviating from appropriate levels.  Tibor fell yesterday for a fourth consecutive day to 0.380%, its lowest level since July 2006.  The yen will likely remain strong provided growth estimates for the U.S. and Europe remain muted, absent any intervention from the Japanese government.  The Japanese media continues to report Bank of Japan may lift its 2010 economic growth forecast to around 2.5% from the current forecast of 1.8%.  Dealers are paying close attention to Japanese politics where Prime Minister Kan’s Democratic Party of Japan party could lose its upper-house majority on 11 July.  Kan and the DPJ are seeking to increase taxes.  Data to be released in Japan this week include May machine orders and current account data on Wednesday.  The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 0.77% to close at ¥9,338.04.  U.S. dollar bids are cited around the ¥86.29 level.   The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥110.85 level and was supported around the ¥109.15 level.  The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¥133.65 level while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-à-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¥83.05 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar appreciated vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.7805 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.7758.  The State Administration of Foreign Exchange noted a depreciation in the U.S. dollar will not cause “real” losses from foreign reserve investments.  Agricultural Bank plans to raise as much as US$ 20.1 billion by selling equity in Shanghai and Hong Kong.  Dealers are reporting People’s Bank of China has purchased significant amount of Japanese government bonds, approximately US$ 6 billion between January and April.  The big news in China yesterday was a slide in the HSBC June services index to 55.6 from 56.4 and these data follow recent weaker data in the manufacturing sector.  Some economists are scaling back their Chinese GDP growth forecasts for the fourth quarter to an annualized 8%.  Notably, the Chinese economy expanded 11.9% y/y in the first three quarters of 2010.  Premier Wen this weekend reported the Chinese government will remain flexible on account of “very complicated” economic situations in China and abroad.

£

The British pound appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.5225 level and was supported around the US$ 1.5080 level.  Bank of England is expected to keep its headline Bank rate target unchanged this week at 0.50% and keep its asset purchase program unchanged at £200 billion.  BCC today reported the BoE is unlikely to change its Bank Rate before May 2011.  It was announced yesterday that economic forecaster Martin Weale will join the BoE Monetary Policy Committee as an external member.  Traders will pay very close attention to Thursday’s MPC vote to see if there are additional calls for higher rates.  Traders await the release of the BRC June shop price index.  Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.4620 level.  The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the £0.8325 level and was supported around the £0.8265 level.

CHF

The Swiss franc appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.0560 level and was capped around the CHF 1.0665 level.  Data released in Switzerland today saw June consumer price inflation off 0.4% m/m and up 0.5% y/y, a moderation of price pressures.  The June unemployment rate will be released on Thursday and is expected to come in around 3.7%.  Swiss National Bank’s foreign currency holdings declined last month to CHF 225.8 billion from CHF 232.1 billion in May as SNB officials stopped selling francs for euro or U.S. dollars.  Swiss National Bank President Hildebrand yesterday said he is “closely monitoring” the franc, adding its fluctuation has “clearly increased.”  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.0980 level.  The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested offers around the CHF 1.3410 level while the British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the Swiss franc and tested bids around the CHF 1.6035 level.

Forex Daily Market Commentary provided by GCI Financial Ltd.

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DISCLAIMER: GCI’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

By CountingPips.com

The U.S. dollar has been on the defensive against the major currencies in the early part of the U.S. forex trading session on Tuesday while U.S. stocks have traded to higher levels. The dollar has been falling against the euro, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Swiss franc, New Zealand dollar, Canadian dollar and the British pound on the first day following the U.S. long weekend, according to currency data from Oanda.

The euro has jumped versus the dollar to a new high since May 21st as the EUR/USD has advanced from today’s 1.2506 opening (00:00 GMT) to trading at approximately 1.2645 before noon of the U.S. trading session.

US stock markets, meanwhile, have gained early in their session today to start off the week as the Dow Jones industrial average has increased over 100 points while the NASDAQ has advanced over 30 points and the S&P 500 has increased by over 10 points so far. Oil has traded higher by $1.62 to level at $73.76 per barrel while gold has decreased by almost $16.00 today to level at $1,191.40 per ounce.

ISM Non-Manufacturing data edges lower

U.S. Non-Manufacturing economic data, released today by the Institute for Supply Management, showed that non-manufacturing economic activity grew in June for the 6th straight month although at a slower pace than May. June’s ISM Report On Business index readings for economic activity were at 53.8 percent following May’s 55.4 percent level.

The June score was worse than economic forecasts which were expecting the ISM index reading to register 55.0 percent but was still in expansion territory. A score above 50 is considered to be growth and less than 50 is considered to be contraction in that sector.

Anthony Nieves, chair of the Institute for Supply Management Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, talked about the survey’s numbers saying, “The New Orders Index decreased 2.7 percentage points to 54.4 percent, and the Employment Index decreased 0.7 percentage point to 49.7 percent, reflecting contraction after one month of growth. The Prices Index decreased 6.8 percentage points to 53.8 percent in June, indicating that prices are still increasing but at a slower rate than in May. According to the NMI, 15 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in June. Respondents’ comments are mostly positive about business conditions; however, there is concern about the effect of employment on the economic recovery.”

Hello there forex friends! today’s I present to you an update on US dollar index which I last posted back in June 24 (kindly see my previous entry here). As you can see, the index has retraced back to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level that I drew after reaching a high of 88.708 last June 7. Given its oversold conditions, the pair would probably head north soon. If the 50% Fib breaks, its long term uptrend line would be its immediate support. Now, if this uptrend gets broken, the index could slide down to around 82.00 or even further at 81.00. But as long as the uptrend remains intact, the index and the USD’s valuation against the other currencies would likely rise.

Remember that 57.6% of the index’s weight is composed of the euro. So if the Euro Stoxx 50 index breaks down as what I presented in my earlier post today (kindly see here), resulting to a slide in the demand for the euro as well, the USDX as a result would rise. Moreover, further declines in the US’s major indices (Nasdaq, DJIA, and S&P 500), would cause some risk aversion, leading the investors back to the safety of US bonds and therefore the USD.

More on LaidTrades.com …

By Greg Holden – Sweden’s central bank, the Riksbank, recently stated that its growth prospects remain solid, and that its economy currently stands on firm ground. We’ve seen long-term appreciation of the SEK against its 16-nation EUR counterpart over the past few months, with a few exceptions, but the latest downturn may be due to the negative sentiment offered in the statement.

The Riksbank announced a quarter-point rate hike, from 0.25% to 0.50%, but added a note of caution that its GDP growth forecasts have been decreased substantially due to external factors. With an estimation of a major European contraction in GDP, the Swedish economy will no doubt be affected in a similar fashion.

Riksbank Governor Stefan Ingves noted that “The Swedish economy is developing strongly following the severe downturn,” But the bank’s official report also mentioned that “economic growth abroad is expected to be lower, which means that the repo rate in the longer term will not need to be raised as much as was previously assumed.”

This negative assessment of the euro zone has put some expected pressure on the currency combination for the region. From a technical perspective (seen below), we also see the SEK at a position of corrective movement. Many indicators are providing traders with strong bearish signals.

Technical Analysis

– The chart below is the EUR/SEK daily chart provided by ForexYard. The indicators used are the Stochastic Slow, the Williams Percent Range, and Fibonacci retracement lines were drawn.

– Point 1: We can see here that the price is currently testing a significant resistance line at the 23.6% Fibonacci level. Should the price be able to break through this level we could see a strong depreciation in the SEK.

– Point 2: The Stochastic Slow seems to be providing what looks like an impending bearish cross. Once this indication is provided, we should expect strong downward pressure on the pair.

– Point 3: The Williams Percent Range has peaked and recently turned downward. This indicator appears to highlight the growing level of bearish pressure being applied.

EUR/SEK – Daily Chart

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By Anton Eljwizat – The Oil prices are once again dropping, and it is currently traded around $71.75 per barrel. However, there is much technical data that supports a bullish move for today as described below. Forex traders involved with commodities like this can take advantage of this knowledge by going long on Crude Oil now, and at a great entry price!

• The technical indicators used are the Slow Stochastic, Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Williams Percent Range.

• Point 1: There is a “doji” candlestick that has formed on the chart, indicating that a reversal should take place.

• Point 2: The Slow Stochastic indicates a bullish cross, signaling that the next move may be in an upward direction.

• Point 3: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that the price of this cross currently floats in the oversold territory, signaling upward pressure.

• Point 4: The William’s Percent Range also supports the upward direction.

Crude Oil Daily Chart

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.