Author: FX_Trdr

By CountingPips.com

Economic news out of the U.S. today showed that new orders for durable goods increased for the third month in a row while new home sales declined to a new low in February. Durable goods orders in the United States rose by 0.5 percent in February to a total of $178.1 billion following January’s revised 3.9 percent gain, according to the report released by the U.S. Commerce Department today. February’s advance marked the third consecutive month of increases after October and November registered declines.

Market forecasts had been expecting that durable goods orders would increase by approximately 0.6 percent for the month. Durable goods are products manufactured in the U.S. and considered to last more than three years.

New orders for durable goods excluding transportation increased by 0.9 percent in February following a revised decrease of 0.9 percent in January. This data was better than the market forecasts which were predicting an increase of 0.6 percent for durables minus transportation for the month.

Home Sales fall to new low

New Home Sales in the United States decreased more than expected for the month of February, according to data released by the Department of Commerce today. Purchases of new single family homes fell to an annual rate of 308,000 in February for a 2.2 percent decline from January. This marked the fourth straight month of declines and brings new home sales to the lowest level on record. Revised data showed that new home sales decreased in January by 8.7 percent to an annual rate of 315,000 homes.

On an annual basis, February’s rate of new homes sold was 13.0 percent lower than the February 2009 level. Today’s sales data failed to match market forecasts which were expecting a 1.9 percent increase in sales for an annual rate of 315,000 new homes sold.

Contributing to the decrease in February was a 20 percent drop in new homes sold in the the Northeast while the Midwest registered a 18 percent decline in sales. Sales in the South fell by almost 5 percent while the West saw an increase by 21 percent from January to February.

FOREX: US Dollar jumps higher

The U.S. dollar has been trading higher in the forex markets today against the other major currencies. The dollar has advanced today versus the euro, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, British pound, Canadian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar, according to currency data by Oanda.

The euro has fallen versus the dollar to under the 1.3350 exchange rate today as Portugal’s credit rating downgrade and Greece’s debt situation has weighed heavily on the European common currency. The EUR/USD is down by approximately 150 pips today.

The U.S. stock markets, meanwhile, declined today with the Dow Jones following by approximately 53 points, the Nasdaq decreasing over 16 points and the S&P 500 down by almost 7 points.  Oil has fallen by $1.44 to $80.47 while gold has been unchanged at the $1,103.50 per ounce level.

USD/JPY 1-Hour Chart – The US Dollar surging higher and breaking out of its recent trading range versus the Japanese Yen today. The USD/JPY rose above the 92.00 level for the first time since February 19th and is up by over 150 pips today.

By Fast Brokers – Gold dove back below its highly psychological $1100/oz level and set new March lows after a wave of risk aversion hit the FX markets.  Investors fled to the Dollar after Fitch lowered Portugal’s credit rating.  With Greece’s financial assistance plan still up in the air, another debt scare in the EU has accelerated Dollar flows in risk aversion, highlighted by large gains in the USD/JPY.  Gold has reacted negatively to today’s development since the precious metal tends to have a negative correlation with the Greenback.  However, downside movements in gold have been somewhat limited compared to the selloffs taking place in the EUR/USD and Cable.  Gold has managed to regain its footing before a retest of February lows.  However, we’ll have to see how the trading session progresses since problems in the EU could continue to benefit the Dollar.  U.S. New Home Sales just printed below analyst expectations, which could help buoy gold and deflate the Dollar intraday since it works against speculation that the Fed will raise sooner than anticipated, a Dollar negative.  We notice slight strength in the Cable and EUR/USD in reaction to the news, though we’ll see whether it has staying power.  All eyes will be on the EU summit tomorrow, although expectations have been lowered by persistent rebuttals from Germany.  The EU, UK and U.S. will also through in some data points, making tomorrow’s trading session a bit interesting.

Technically speaking, gold has intraday and February 2010 lows serving as technical cushions along with the psychological $1075/oz level should it be tested.  As for the topside, gold faces multiple downtrend lines along with 2/25 and intraday highs.  Meanwhile, the psychological $1100/oz level could continue to have an influence on gold as long as the precious metal remains within striking distance.

Present Price: $1092.50/oz
Resistances: $1093.37/oz, $1094.92/oz, $1096.18/oz, $1097.26/oz, $1098.10/oz, $1099.32/oz
Supports: $1092.23/oz, $1091.40/oz, $1089.78/oz, $1088.72/oz, $1086.90/oz
Psychological: $1100/oz, February lows

(click chart to enlarge)

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regarded neither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Fast Brokers – The Aussie is battling to avoid a retest of 3/22 lows after a wave of risk aversion hit the FX markets in reaction to more negative news from the EU.  Fitch downgraded Portugal’s credit rating, adding onto negative momentum stemming from a lack of cooperation in regards to providing Greece with financial assistance as it implements aggressive austerity measures.  Increasing uncertainty in the EU is weighing down on the Aussie since the RBA will likely deliberate this during next month’s meeting.  Should EU economic conditions deteriorate further, the RBA could be enticed to keep its monetary policy in check, slowing the Aussie’s uptrend.  All of this being said, the Aussie is still outperforming the Euro and Pound by a long shot since Australia’s economic data has been altogether positive so far this year.  Today’s Japanese Trade Balance data revealed strong demand from China, a positive catalyst for the Aussie since China’s post-crisis boom has increased demand for Australia’s commodities.  Meanwhile, it will be interesting to see whether the Aussie can stabilize from present levels, for its uptrend could snap should losses extend in the EUR/USD and Cable.  Investors are locking in Dollar profits right now in reaction to weaker than expected U.S. New Home Sales data.  However, it remains to be seen how far this boost will take us.  The EU summit begins tomorrow surrounded by EU, UK, and U.S. data releases, meaning tomorrow could prove to be an active day as well.
Technically speaking, the Aussie has intraday, 3/22, and 3/9 lows serving as technical cushions along with the .91 and .90 levels should they be retested.  As for the topside, the Aussie now faces multiple downtrend lines along with 3/23 and 3/17 highs.

Price: .9117
Resistances: .9125, .9137, .9145, .9156, .9162, .9169
Supports: .9110, .9101, .9087, .9073, .9061
Psychological: .91, .90, 2010 highs

(click chart to enlarge)

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regarded neither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Fast Brokers – The USD/JPY has awoken from its slumber, shooting higher in reaction to a wave of risk aversion hitting the FX markets.  With IMF involvement in Greece’s rescue looking more likely investors sent the Euro tumbling.  Additionally, Fitch lowered its credit rating for Portugal, accelerating risk aversion as investors head toward the Dollar for safety.  The USD/JPY has been a direct beneficiary from today’s developments in the EU, sending the currency pair flying towards its February highs.  The USD/JPY broke through some key downtrend lines in the process, including our top tier running through previous 2010 highs, indicating the USD/JPY could be heading towards the 93.75 level over the medium-term.  This morning’s Trade Balance data showed Japan had a stronger than expected surplus last month.  Export demand is picking up, particularly to China, and this seems to be adding fuel to the USD/JPY’s topside breakout.  U.S. Core DGO data outperformed, indicating U.S. consumption is picking up slowly, a positive development for Japan’s manufacturing base.  Meanwhile, investors are awaiting U.S. New Home Sales data and this number could prove to be a market mover.  Japan will be relatively quiet on the data wire tomorrow, leaving investors to focus on the EU summit.  A key for the USD/JPY will now be to break out beyond February highs, or the currency pair may opt to consolidate earlier gains.

Technically speaking, the USD/JPY faces technical resistance in the form of February 2010 highs and the psychological 92 area.  As for the downside, the USD/JPY has fresh uptrend lines serving as technical cushions along with 2/22 and intraday lows.

Present Price: 91.87
Resistances: 91.96, 92.05, 92.15, 92.24, 92.39
Supports: 91.77, 91.68, 91.58, 91.47, 91.40, 91.28
Psychological: February highs, 92

(click chart to enlarge)

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regarded neither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Fast Brokers – The Cable has been tossed below 3/22 lows amid risk aversion stemming from continued uncertainty in the EU.  Investors initially sent the Euro lower with IMF involvement in Greece’s rescue becoming more likely.  The rest of the risk trade followed suit after Fitch downgraded Portugal, igniting speculation that fiscal woes are just the tip of the iceberg with the possibility of contagion on the horizon.  The concept of more PIIGS nations being hit by credit woes instinctively sent investors to the Dollar for safety, knocking the Cable despite a lack of economic data from the UK.  However, the Cable is fighting to stabilize a bit as Darling delivers the UK’s 2010 budget.  Should the projected 2010 budget deficit come in lower than anticipated, this could help buoy the Cable a bit despite thunderstorms in the EU.  The Cable does still have previous March lows in place, meaning the currency pair appears to have stronger near-term support than the EUR/USD, which just experienced a hefty technical setback.  Meanwhile, the U.S. has New Home Sales data on the way, and a better than expected result could strengthen the Dollar further, while a weak number could help stabilize the Cable.  The U.S. also released DGO data this morning which printed mixed, indicating U.S. consumption is recovering slowly.  For the time being, it will be interesting to see how investors react to the UK’s 2010 budget plans as investors dissect Darlin’s address throughout the trading session.  The UK will release Retail Sales data tomorrow along with a few EU and U.S. figures.  However, attention will likely be honed in on the EU’s meeting and any possible solutions for how to handle Greece.

Technically speaking, although near-term supports are certainly wearing thin, the Cable still has 3/10 and 3/2 lows working in its favor.  As for the topside, the Cable clearly faces multiple downtrend lines along with the psychological 1.50 level should it be tested.

Present Price: 1.4924
Resistances: 1.4928, 1.4936, 1.4946, 1.4954, 1.4967
Supports: 1.4914, 1.4901, 1.4893, 1.4878, 1.4871
Psychological: 1.50, March lows

(click chart to enlarge)

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regarded neither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Fast Brokers – The EUR/USD has plunged beneath previous March highs in reaction to IMF involvement in Greece’s financial assistance becoming more likely.  France is beginning to turn Germany’s way, favoring IMF involvement on a certain level, and not until Greece is unable to attain financing on its own two legs.  Investors reacted negatively to the news, sending the EUR/USD back to levels not seen since May 2009.  Adding to the EUR/USD’s downward momentum was Fitch’s announcement that it is lowering Portugal’s credit rating to AA-.  The fear of more PIIGS nations needing financial assistance when the EU has failed to come up with a plan for Greece has sent investors scurrying towards the Dollar for safety.  The EUR/USD had been stuck in a trading range for a while, albeit a wide one, and today’s large pullback could signal that the EUR/USD is in for yet another leg down.  Today’s negative EU debt news had led investors to dismiss an altogether encouraging day of economic data from the EU.  The Flash PMI figures and German Ifo Business Climate number showed that economic activity is still on the path to recovery, at least in Germany and France.  Although today’s data has been dismissed thus far, it could help the EUR/USD stabilize once the impacts from today’s negative psychological events exhaust themselves.   Meanwhile, the Dollar is gaining across the board while gold ducks back below $1100/oz.  Hence, a clear message of risk-aversion has been delivered.  U.S. DGO data printed mixed, with the core outperforming while the headline disappointed.  Therefore, although auto purchases are cooling, consumption is continuing to show improvement.  Investors are presently waiting for U.S. New Home Sales data, and it will be interesting to see how this figure fares since it has been on a steady decline for some time now.  If New Home Sales should outperform, this could benefit the Dollar due to speculation that the Fed could raise sooner than anticipated.

Technically speaking, the EUR/USD clearly faces a multitude of downtrend lines due to the extent of today’s pullback.  Since uptrend lines are sitting far below, the EUR/USD’s objective now becomes to set a new base, which could take a little while barring a positive reaction to this week’s EU summit.  The EUR/USD now has March and April 2009 levels serving as supports/resistances.

Present Price: 1.3344
Resistances: 1.3372, 1.3391, 1.3410, 1.3447, 1.3473
Supports:  1.3340, 1.3320, 1.3300, 1.3284, 1.3268, 1.3245
Psychological: March lows, 1.33

(click chart to enlarge)

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regarded neither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Ashley Smith – The Australian and New Zealand Dollars have been suffering this week along with other higher yielding currencies from the negative economic sentiment and the strong Dollar. Continued concerns over the Greek debt crisis, as well as today’s downgrade of Portugal, dampened demand for riskier currencies and pushed investors to the USD as a refuge.

The decline in Gold and Oil prices throughout the week also contributed to the decline as these are Australia’s 3rd and 4th most valuable commodity exports. With no major news events from the region this week, the South Pacific currency continues to follow the trend of other growth linked currencies and decline versus the Dollar. The AUD is currently trading at 91.16 U.S cents after briefly dropping to below 90.00 cents.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By CountingPips.com

The European common currency declined sharply today in forex trading as Portugal’s credit rating was downgraded to “AA-” by the ratings agency Fitch Ratings. Portugal’s credit rating was “AA” before today’s action. The downgrade was prompted on concerns of the country’s high debt obligations and has added more negative sentiment for the euro on top of Greece’s well publicized debt problems.

EU leaders are scheduled to meet for a Eurozone summit on Thursday and Friday and will be faced with renewed pressure to come up with a European solution for Greece’s troubles or turn to the IMF for help after the Portugal downgrade. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said that the summit won’t lead to a decision on Greece’s situation while other EU leaders are pressing for a framework that could lead to a solution.

News out of the EU summit will likely play a pivotal role in the euro’s direction, especially in the short-term.

EUR/USD 4-Hour Chart – The EUR/USD currency pair fell to a fresh 10-month low-point today as the pair touched its lowest level since May 7th, 2009 at the 1.3332 exchange rate. The EUR/USD had risen to the 1.3817 exchange rate as recently as March 17th before declining over the past week and accelerating lower today. Today’s action has seen the euro fall by over 100 pips to the dollar while the euro touched a fresh all-time low versus the Swiss franc.

By Dan Eduard – The Scandinavian Kroner has recorded steep losses against the U.S. Dollar as of late, a reflection of the overall drop in risk sentiment among investors. Despite a fair amount of confidence in the Swedish economy, the USD/SEK has risen to an almost three-week high. The pair rose to 7.2380 earlier in the week before a minor downward correction occurred. The Swedish currency has faired much better against the Euro. The EUR/SEK tumbled over 500 pips on Tuesday amid news that a Greek bailout will likely be financed by the Intenational Monetary Fund (IMF) and not other Euro-Zone currencies.

The Norwegian Krone has also seen dramatic losses against the USD lately. The USD/NOK moved as high as 5.9802 in trading on Monday, before making a slight correction. The pair has since been fluctuating, although it appears to have settled around the 5.9400 level.

Scandinavian currency traders will want to pay attention to several upcoming news events likely to impact the forex marketplace. The US New Home Sales report is forecasted to show an increase in new home sales over the last month. If this is indeed true, the Dollar could increase its recent gains on the Kroner. That being said, the housing market is notoriously hard to predict. Kroner traders looking for a good time to enter the market will want to see if the housing figure comes in below expectations, in which case the Scandinavian currencies may see some gains. Additionally, Kroner traders will want to keep up with the British Annual Budget release, as well as the latest U.S. Crude Oil Inventories figure, both of which could create market volatility.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

A FREE report keeps you on the right side of precious metals

By Nico Isaac

Right now, the gold BULL-ion bandwagon is more crowded than a New York subway train during rush hour. But before you squeeze your way into the crowd of passengers, you should know one thing: Those steering the course are using outdated maps based on ill-conceived notions and illusory hopes.

Where can you get better information about gold and silver? Take a look at the latest FREE resource from Club EWI, the Gold and Silver eBook. This riveting, 40-page eBook pools the recent and archived writings on the precious metals by EWI president Bob Prechter himself. The result is a comprehensive collection that spans the last four decades of gold and silver history to expose the most dangerous market myths. Off the top is this familiar bit of “wisdom” from the school of Alan Greenspan:

It is impossible to foresee the end of major trends in precious metals

BEFORE they occur. Hindsight is foresight.

NOT SO, says Prechter. Since gold and silver established their all-time record peaks in 1979-80, he has stayed one step ahead of the metals’ history-making turns. Here, Chapters 2 and 3 of the Gold & Silver eBook offer up the following excerpts from Bob’s earliest writings:

Silver

• November 18, 1979, Elliott Wave Theorist (EWT): With silver prices hovering near $20/ounce, Bob wrote: “If my wave count is valid, silver can be expected to drop back down to between $4 and $6, $3.20-$3.49 some time in the next decade.”

What actually happened: From there, silver prices embarked on a 13-year bear market that saw prices plunge into the $3.50-per-ounce area.

• March 26, 1993, EWT: “Silver is approaching a major bottom” of its decades-plus long downtrend.

What actually happened: Silver found its low in 1993.

Gold

• December 9, 1979, EWT: “After 13 years of rise, Elliott counts now suggest an important top is near in gold. The downside target is at least $282.50.”

What actually happened: While the price projection for gold’s peak was far off the mark (the Theorist cited the upper $480/ounce range), the time target of early 1980 was met with accuracy. From its 1980 peak, gold prices plummeted nearly 70% before hitting bottom in 2001.

• At the Crest of the Tidal Wave, 1995: “One attractive termination date for the gold bottom is New Year’s Day of 2001 (plus/minus a month). That way, it will have lasted a … a lean 21 years from the 1980 peak.”

What actually happened: Gold registered its low at $255 on February 20, 2001.

Now that we can see that it is possible to benefit from foresight about the end of major trends in precious metals, what about these other popular notions —

• Gold always goes up in recession and depressions.
• Gold always performs better than stocks in economic downturns.
• Gold and Silver are just beginning (as in the year 2010) their biggest bull market runs ever.

Download Robert Prechter’s FREE 40-Page Gold and Silver eBook. Is gold a simple buy-and-hold at today’s prices? The independent insights in this valuable ebook deliver Prechter’s complete analysis and help you decide how to – and how not to – incorporate gold and silver successfully into your own investment strategy. Learn more, and download your Gold and Silver eBook here.