By IFCMarkets
Lower consumer confidence bearish for EURUSD
German GfK consumer confidence index ticked down in October to 9.6 from 9.8. Will the EURUSD decline?
The price chart on 1-hour timeframe shows EURUSD: H1 is in uptrend. The price is testing the 200-period moving average MA(200) which is rising. The RSI oscillator is falling but has not reached the oversold zone.
| Order | Buy |
| Buy stop | Above 1.1123 |
| Stop loss | Below 1.1102 |
Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets
Article By RoboForex.com
EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”
EURUSD continues forming the third descending impulse. Possibly, today the pair may break 1.1080 and then continue trading inside the downtrend with the predicted target at 1.1057.
GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”
GBPUSD has finished the third descending impulse towards 1.2828. After that, the instrument may continue trading downwards with the predicted target at 1.2770.
USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”
USDCHF continues moving upwards. Today, the pair may fall to reach 0.9920 and then form one more ascending structure with the predicted target at 0.9940.
USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”
USDJPY is still consolidating around 108.44. Possibly, today the pair may form a new descending structure to reach 108.40. Later, the market may break this level and then continue trading inside the downtrend with the target at 108.06.
AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”
After reaching the short-term downside target at 0.6815, AUDUSD is consolidating around it. If later the price breaks this range to the upside at 0.6823, the market may start a new correction towards 0.6835 and then form a new descending structure with the target at 0.6788; if to the downside at 0.6809 – continue trading inside the downtrend to reach the above-mentioned target.
USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”
USDRUB has completed the ascending wave at 64.04. Today, the pair may fall to reach 63.80, thus forming a new consolidation range between these two levels. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may continue the correction towards 64.64; if to the downside at 1.1044 – resume trading inside the downtrend with the target at 62.93.
USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”
USDCAD is consolidating around 1.3073 without any particular direction. Possibly, the pair may fall to reach 1.3024 and then form one more ascending structure with the target at 1.3131.
XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”
Gold continues the correction; right now, it is consolidating around 1490.19. Possibly, today the pair may fall to reach 1490.19 and then start a new growth towards 1505.85. After that, the instrument may continue trading inside the downtrend with the predicted target at 1451.65.
BRENT
After reaching the predicted upside at target 61.35 and forming the consolidation range below it, Brent has broken the range to the upside to reach 61.87 and then retuned to 60.35. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may continue trading inside the uptrend with the target at 63.07; if to the downside – start another correction to reach 60.40 and then resume trading upwards.
BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”
BTCUSD is still consolidating around 7400.00. Possibly, the pair may form a new descending structure to reach 7200.00 and then start another growth with the target at 8200.00.
Article By RoboForex.com
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
Article By RoboForex.com
BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”
As we can see in the daily chart, the descending tendency continues. After completing the short-term correction, BTCUSD started a new descending impulse, which has almost reached 61.8% fibo at 7215.00. Later, the price may continue trading towards 76.0% fibo at 5700.00. However, the key mid-term target is the long-term low at 3121.90. The previous impulse has moved the resistance, which is currently at 50.0% fibo at 8500.00.
In the H1 chart, the pair is correcting sideways; right now, it is moving between the local low at 7302.00 and 23.6% fibo at 7550.00. In the future, the instrument may yet continue the correction towards 38.2% and 50.0% fibo at 7700.00 and 7825.00 respectively, but it’s highly unlikely.
ETHUSD, “Ethereum vs. US Dollar”
As we can see in the H4 chart, after finishing the correction, ETHUSD started a new decline, which has almost reached the low at 152.28. If the price breaks the low, the pair may continue trading towards 76.0% fibo at 148.60 and then the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 135.30 and 124.40 respectively.
In the H1 chart, the instrument is correcting upwards and has already reached 38.2% fibo. The next upside target is 50.0% fibo at 165.56. the support is the local low at 153.00.
Article By RoboForex.com
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
By Orbex
Another choppy and heavy session marked Thursday’s trading as highly volatile on the back of geopolitical and economic headlines.
ECB’s president Draghi re-cited downside risks and low inflation, BoJo pushed for an early election, hitting back at Labor. Finally, Mike Pence, US Vice President, delivered a worrisome US-Sino speech.
Meanwhile, US data were mixed, with bearish momentum offsetting upbeat data and vice versa. Regardless, gold did make a move for a number of reasons.
The euro fell across the board following Mario’s speech yesterday at his last policy meeting. The now-former President reiterated September’s dovish policy language.
With Europe’s growth outlook stuck and inflation stuck ECB’s accommodative policy will remain unchanged at least until Lagarde’s first speech.
Euro traders eyed the 1.11 round level following Draghi’s speech. Price action remained contained within certain limits but these were wide.
The currency pair is expected to remain under pressure with the next breakeven stops seen near 1.060 and then 1.1047. The latter is the 1.618 Fibonacci extension of the first corrective wave down to 1.11 test arear.
The pace of the decline should depend on how the dollar performs.
UK’s PM supported the dovish-President theme yesterday. Calling for an early election on December 12 he triggered a fresh sentiment biased to the downside.
The direction of the pound in the next few trading sessions will depend on whether the EU grants an extension and for how long.
The pound broke below the 1.28 handle yesterday following the latest headlines.
Cable traders could send prices lower for a deeper correction, where wave C of the zigzag-looking pattern could complete as the chances of EU delaying the response to UK’s Brexit extension request increase.
Poor Brexit and ECB flows kept gold upbeat yesterday as the risks of uncertainty and further Europe-wide economic hurdles weighed on sentiment.
In addition, markets were seen reacting risk-averse on the back of US-Sino headlines and Pence criticized “China’s actions in Hong Kong”.
Following the triangle breakout markets could expect the yellow metal to appreciate further now.
With the current medium-term structure however pointing to a bearish complex correction investors should remain cautious. Gold could simply be on a throwback formation.
By Orbex
by JustForex
Yesterday, the US dollar strengthened against a basket of currency majors. The dollar index (#DX) closed yesterday’s trading session in the green zone (+0.17%). Investors are focused on statements by US President Donald Trump. Trump criticized the Fed again for too high interest rate. “Take a look around the World at our competitors. Germany and others are actually GETTING PAID to borrow money. Fed was way too fast to raise, and way too slow to cut!” Trump tweeted.
Mario Draghi held his last meeting as head of the ECB yesterday. Finally, he reminded investors of gloomy economic prospects, and also said that low interest rates would remain for a long time. On November 1, Christine Lagarde will become a head of ECB instead of Mario Draghi.
The British pound is still under pressure due to the uncertainty concerning Brexit. Today, EU leaders will gather to decide whether to extend Britain’s exit from the bloc or not. It is known that most countries support the initiative to postpone Brexit for three months, except France. Meanwhile, Leader of the House of Commons of United Kingdom, Jacob Rees-Mogg, said that the government did not want to postpone Brexit and intended to do so on October 31, as planned.
The “black gold” prices are consolidating. At the moment, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing the $56.15 per barrel mark. At 20:00 (GMT+3:00) US Baker Hughes rig count will be published.
Yesterday, there was a variety of trends in the US stock markets: #SPY (+0.16%), #DIA (-0.10%), #QQQ (+0.97%).
The 10-year US government bonds yield is still at 1.75-1.76%.
by JustForex
By Orbex
The monthly consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan will be coming out today.
Economists do not expect to see any major changes from the preliminary estimates. Forecasts indicate that it will hold steady at 96.0.
This marks a modest rebound from the month before which was a three-month high.
The consumer sentiment index for September saw a revision from 92.0 to 93.2. The UoM consumer sentiment hit a high at 101.00 in May this year. But, since then, consumer sentiment is in a downtrend.
The forward looking indicator rebounded during the month, according to the preliminary estimates.
The rise in the index came on the back of consumers expecting larger gains in income and lower inflation for the year ahead.
Consumers also expect the real income to rise as a result. The rate cuts from the Federal Reserve is helping to improve the consumer sentiment at the very least, bolstering plans for spending.
Despite this outlook, consumers were of the view that the domestic economy in the United States will continue to rise at a slower pace.
October was relatively stable in relation to the trade talks. The United States and China made progress on trade talks, with indications that a phase one deal is almost ready.
It would mark big progress in an issue that has plagued not just consumers in the United States, but the global economy as well.
Various financial institutions and watchdogs have become more vocal in calling for the trade disputes to be resolved amicably.
Despite the small progress, the overall outlook for the US economy continues to be bleak. In early October, the IBD/TIPP economic outlook report showed that consumers had a pessimistic view on the economic growth.
Economic data from the United States, especially in the past few weeks has been weaker as well. While on one hand, there are signs that the trade talks could be resolved, the possibility of a Presidential impeachment comes as a concern.
Growth in the United States has slowed and is expected to lose momentum in the coming quarters. Global manufacturing has taken a big hit due to a number of factors including the late growth stage.
Despite the Fed doing its bit to cut interest rates, it will take some time for the effects of cheaper credit to pass through to average consumers.
Consumer sentiment is still in a good spot, especially when compared to a year ago. This is consistent with the view that the US economy still has room to grow.
For the moment, various measures of consumer sentiment surveys show that it is still too early to ring the alarm bells. Economists and market watchers have been keeping a close eye on various indicators for signs of a possible recession.
Despite the initial scares at the start of this year, the economic data continues to chug along, albeit at a slower pace.
With the markets looking to the final quarter of the year, there is a slight chance that consumer sentiment will close out at the current highs.
Besides the consumer sentiment index, the UoM will also be releasing the inflation expectations report. The preliminary estimates saw inflation expectations falling to 2.2%. That is the inflation expectations over the 10-year time frame.
October’s preliminary inflation expectations report marks the lowest inflation expectations on record. It was down from 2.4% in the previous month.
By Orbex
By George Prior
The Brexit-pummelled pound – the worst-performing major currency of the G10 – is going to fall further following the Opposition leader’s instruction to his party to abstain on Monday’s general election vote.
The bleak warning is from Nigel Green, CEO and founder of deVere Group, one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organizations.
It comes as the leader of the opposition Labour Party has told his party to come together to block Monday’s parliamentary vote on a general election on December 12, which was called for by Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Thursday.
If parliament does agree to the election, in return, Mr Johnson will afford them more time to scrutinize the Brexit Bill which was given the green-light by the House of Commons on Tuesday – but the timetable for its passing was not.
The UK’s Fixed Term Parliaments Act, (FTPA) requires that two-thirds of all 650 lawmakers must support holding a snap election. This is the third time Mr Johnson has tried to have a general election since taking office.
Mr Green warns: “Whether it is Boris Johnson’s preferred date of December 12or a few weeks later, a general election is looming on the horizon for the UK.
“An election in itself will create further woes for the already Brexit-battered British pound as they always fuel uncertainty.
“We immediately saw this in action on Thursday when sterling – the worst-performing major currency of the G10 – fell from its recent multi-month highs and took a turn lower following the announcement Boris Johnson will seek a general election before Christmas.
“Whilst the beleaguered pound does have much of the Brexit shenanigans already priced-in, Jeremy Corbyn’s decision to instruct Labour MPs to abstain or vote against Monday’s general election vote will ramp up the uncertainty further – thereby extending the pound’s losses.
“Should Labour adhere to Mr Corbyn’s instructions, the PM would then not have the numbers – as abstentions count against under the FTPA – and no election will take place on December 12. This begs the question: when will the election take place?”
He continues: “The significant drop in the value of the pound since the referendum has contributed to reducing people’s purchasing power and a drop in UK living standards. Weaker sterling means imports are more expensive, with rising prices being passed on to consumers.
“The fall in the pound is good for exports some claim, but it must be remembered that around 50 per cent of UK exports rely on imported components. These will become more expensive as the pound falls in value.
“A low pound is, of course, bad news for British holidaymakers, travellers abroad and the millions of British expats – with holidays and living/retirement overseas more expensive.”
Mr Green goes on to add: “Furthermore, the Brexit deadlock continues which is causing the UK economy to haemorrhage investment, confidence and opportunity.
“Job-generating, tax-paying, wealth-creating businesses need certainty.”
The deVere CEO concludes: “It’s an abuse of the democratic system for the opposition to not allow a general election to take place to break the deadlock.
“Many voters will believe that the reason why Jeremy Corbyn is pursuing this path is that despite the most chaotic political turmoil this country has faced in generations led by the ruling Conservatives, he is still unlikely to win a general election.”
“Mr Corbyn and others need to stop playing games. The pound and the UK economy are losing their edge in a competitive global economy with the grinding Brexit politicking.”
About:
deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients. It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement
by JustForex
The EUR/USD currency pair went down after a long growth. The trading tool has updated local lows. The ECB, as expected, kept the basic parameters of monetary policy at the same level. A number of weak business activity indicators in Germany and the EU pushed the EUR down. At the moment, EUR/USD quotes are consolidating in the range of 1.10850-1.11150. The single currency has the potential for further correction. Open positions from the key levels.
At 11:00 (GMT + 3: 00), the German IFO business climate index will be published.
Indicators signal the strength of sellers: the price has fixed below 50 MA and 100 MA.
The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, but above the signal line, which gives a weak signal to sell EUR/USD.
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which indicates bullish sentiment.
If the price consolidates below the level of 1.10850, expect a further fall to 1.10600-1.10300.
Alternatively the quotes could grow to 1.11400-1.11600.
Yesterday, sales prevailed on the GBP/USD currency pair. The fall in quotes exceeded 70 points. The pound is still under pressure due to the uncertainty surrounding Brexit. We recommend that you keep track of current information on this issue. The trading instrument is currently consolidating. The local support and resistance levels are: 1.28000 and 1.28800, respectively. Sterling has the potential to further decline. Open positions from the key levels.
The Economic News Feed is calm.
Indicators do not give accurate signals: 50 MA crossed 100 MA.
The MACD histogram is in the negative zone but above the signal line, which gives a weak signal to sell GBP/USD.
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which indicates bullish sentiment.
If the price consolidates below 1.28000, expect a drop toward 1.27500-1.27000.
Alternatively, the quotes could grow toward 1.29400-1.29800.
The USD/CAD currency pair has stabilized. CAD is currently consolidating. There is no defined trend. The local support and resistance levels are 1.30550 and 1.30800, respectively. In the near future, the technical correction of USD/CAD quotes after a prolonged fall is not ruled out. We recommend that you pay attention to the dynamics of the prices for oil. Open positions from the key levels.
The Economic News Feed for 25.10.2019:
The price fixed below 50 MA and 100 MA, which signals the strength of sellers.
The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, indicating a bearish sentiment.
Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which also gives a signal to sell USD/CAD.
If the price consolidates below 1.30550, expect a drop toward 1.30200-1.30000.
Alternatively, the quotes could correct toward 1.31000-1.31200.
The technical picture on the USD/JPY currency pair is still ambiguous. The trading instrument is in lateral movement. USD/JPY quotes test local support and resistance levels 108.500 and 108.700. Participants in financial markets expect additional drivers. We recommend that you pay attention to the dynamics of yield on US government bonds. Open positions from the key levels.
The Economic News Feed for 25.10.2019:
The price fixed above 50 MA and 100 MA, which signals the strength of buyers.
The MACD histogram has started to rise, indicating a bullish sentiment.
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.
If the price consolidates below 108.500, USD/JPY is expected to fall to 108.300-108.100.
Alternatively, the quotes could grow toward 108.900-109.200.
by JustForex
Source: Economic Events October 25, 2019 – Admiral Markets’ Forex Calendar
While the economic calendar is quite thin this Friday, and we shouldn’t expect the final release of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment to induce higher volatility, we still want to have a look at the USD/JPY – a currency pair which will be of some interest in coming trading week.
The USD/JPY will be principally driven by the Fed rate decision on Wednesday, followed by the BoJ rate decision on Thursday.
While a Fed rate cut of 25 basis points is nearly entirely priced in (the Fed Watch Tool currently shows a likelihood of over 90%), what’s of higher interest is the rhetoric in reference to a possible rate decision in December, and the announced “Non-QE”-QE program.
Here, the current plan is to buy US Treasuries for the next 8.5 months at a pace of 60 billion USD per month, and any hints during Wednesday’s meeting that the Fes could consider extending that program if no improvement to the liquidity issue in the repo market is seen, the US dollar could see a new wave of heavier selling, resulting from another push downwards in 10-year US yields, going for another test of the region around the all-time lows at 1.36%.
In addition to the dovish Fed rhetoric, it will be interesting to see what the BoJ delivers, particularly after the recent turbulences in Japanese bond markets where 10-year JGB yields spiked on October 2 after a poorly-received auction. This was a likely sign that traders are finally paying heed to Kuroda’s recent comments, warning against excessive falls in super-long yields, which left us with expectations that the BoJ is to deliver a more dovish stance than currently expected.
If this expectation around the BoJ doesn’t come to fruition and the Fed delivers dovish rhetoric, and the US economic releases continue to disappoint, a sustainable break above 109.00 seems unlikely.
With this bigger picture in mind, we’d carefully watch any for any better-than-expected news releases today at 2pm GMT. A stint higher is likely a potential fake out, and any signs of bullish exhaustion could be interesting for Short-engagements from a risk-reward perspective, targeting on another attempt to break back below 106.80/107.00:
Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on USD,JPY Daily chart (between September 7, 2018, to October 24, 2019). Accessed: October 24, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT – Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.
In 2014, the value of the USD/JPY increased by 13.7%, in 2015, it increased by 0.5%, in 2016, it fell by 2.8%, in 2017, it fell by 3.6%, in 2018, it fell by 2.7%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 4.1%.
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Disclaimer: The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter “Analysis”) published on the website of Admiral Markets. Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:
By Alpari.com
On Thursday the 24th of October, trading on the euro closed slightly up. The pair initially slid to 1.1093. Volatility was high during the European session as Mario Draghi gave his speech following the ECB meeting.
The European regulator left interest rates unchanged, while Mario Draghi underlined the growing risks to the economy of sluggish inflation and slower economic growth in the Eurozone.
Day’s news (GMT+3):
Current situation:
The bears were 6 pips short of covering the volume profile from the 17th of October. We expect a test of the 67th degree at 1.1083. The trend line runs just below this level, so it’s unlikely to be broken at the first attempt. The LB balance line runs through 1.1120. We expect a downwards reversal to start from the 1.1120 – 1.1125 followed by a decline to 1.1083. After yesterday’s engulfing of the bullish candlesticks, buying the euro does not look like an attractive prospect.
The macro-economic events calendar is empty today. If anything is going to produce some movements, it will be the German IFO reports. These have an effect on the euro if the actual figures differ strongly enough from the predictions.
By Alpari.com
