InvestMacro FX

Willy Ocier-led Belle Corporation or BEL in the Philippine Stock Exchange was one of the top stories in the domestic stock market in 2010. It was actually a sleeper during the first half of last year. Imagine, it was only trading at around PHP 1.80 in July before it eventually made a move north. From August until the end of 2010, it rose from PHP 1.85 to PHP 4.60. It did not stop there as BEL continued to move higher in January 2011 and on January 19, it reached a high PHP 6.49. From then on, profit taking took over and the stock slid back to a low of PHP 4.92.

A lot of people are asking, “Will BEL soon get back on the bullish track?” I would say that given its present technical set-up, there’s a good chance that BEL would make a turn around and head back north. As you can see from its daily chart, BEL has weakened back to the psychological PHP 5.00 price level. If you notice, this mark also coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the last up wave, making it a good level of support. In addition to that, the issue’s uptrend line is still around to keep it from falling further. Moreover, a hidden bullish divergence, where the price registers higher lows while the RSI makes lower lows, is also present. This suggests that traders and investors could soon pick up the stock. A rally from PHP 5.00, therefore, could send it back to its former high at PHP 6.49. A break below it, on the other hand, could push it down to the other Fibonacci retracements levels – PHP 4.50 or PHP 4.00.

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Walt Disney Co. (DIS) posted fiscal first quarter earnings after the closing bell yesterday, beating analyst expectations.

Gold, silver & rare earth

Which has the strongest trend right now?

In today’s video we will be looking at the gold market, analyzing the silver market, and finally, checking into the rare earth market.

Before you look at the video, you may want to consider doing this as an exercise: Write down which market has the strongest trend – up or down. Then rate the markets. Number 1 ……..Number 2 …….Number 3 ……. Once you see the video it will become clear to you how we rate these markets. It might surprise you.

If you’re using MarketClub’s “Trade Triangle” technology the answer is simple and you’ll discover it in a matter of seconds. If you haven’t used our “Trade Triangle” technology, this will be a good exercise for you to look and see just how powerful this technology is and how it can help your trading.

We all know that gold has had a big move, but so have silver and rare earth stocks. So what’s next?

I hope this video helps outline some ideas that you can put to good use in the future.

As always our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements. All we ask in return is that you Tweet about us and share this video with your friends. Also, please feel free to comment on our blog.

Watch the New Video Here…

Enjoy the video and every success in trading,

Adam Hewison
President of INO.com
Co-founder of MarketClub

Feb. 9 (Bloomberg) — Stephen Gallo, head of market analysis at Schneider Foreign Exchange in London, talks about the outlook for the yuan and interest rates in the U.K. He speaks with Mark Barton on Bloomberg Television’s “Countdown.”

By Greg Holden

As was highlighted in yesterday’s article, the British pound appears positioned to undergo a technical downward correction to its latest upswing. The GBP/CAD appears to also support such a perspective.

The GBP/CAD has been trading within a long-term downtrend since late January 2007, when the pair peaked at 2.3566. Since that time, the pound has given significant ground to the loonie, currently trading at 1.5965, a 32.2% loss in value over the past four years.

What I would like to emphasize here is not that this downtrend is coming to an end, but rather that traders should not expect it to come to an end anytime soon.

As per our technical analysis, this pair has recently touched the long-term trendline and begun its downward cycle.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows the price gradually cascading downward, supporting the cyclical downturn. The Stochastic (slow) also shows what could be a bearish cross above the 80 line; a solid indication of impending bearishness.

As you can see below, the pair recently found a support line which has created a convergence triangle. The convergence point of this relatively new formation looks to be just barely above the 1.5500 price line, which represents our impending target.

Such convergence formations have historically meant that the pair will continue its long-term trend once reached. As such, traders may want to anticipate a stronger downward movement once the 1.5500 price line is breached in the coming weeks.

GBP/CAD – Weekly Chart

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By GCI Forex Research

Fundamental Outlook at 0800 GMT (EDT + 0400)

USD

US Treasury yields continued to advance during the Asia session, helping to push yield-sensitive pairs like USDJPY and USDCHF even higher. EURUSD traded 1.3613-1.3669, USDJPY 81.92-82.51. US Treasuries are still feeling the effects of yesterday’s weak auction and the 10y yield finally breached 3.75% overnight. Although the S&P 500 finished 0.42% ahead, Asian equities are marginally weaker at the time of writing as China’s latest rate hike weighs on sentiment.
Regional Fed Presidents Fisher (2011 voter), Lacker (2012 voter) and Lockhart (2012 voter) made public appearances. Fisher and Lacker again sounded relatively hawkish. Fisher said he expected QE2 to run its course until June, but reiterated his opposition to an additional round of asset purchases thereafter. Lacker said that although he would not support an imminent end to QE2, the question of cutting the program short is something to consider at each FOMC meeting. Lacker said he thinks core inflation has bottomed out, though he acknowledged the risk of rising headline inflation. Lockhart said there is a high bar to raising the current target for asset purchases, but he also stressed now is not the time to adjust the program. Fed Chairman Bernanke is due to testify at Congress and the head of the New York Fed Markets Group Brian Sack is scheduled to speak on QE2.
EUR

Although no agreement has yet been reached on enlarging the effective capacity or widening the scope of Europe’s rescue mechanism, finance ministers continue to express their preferences on how a reformed mechanism should look. Dutch Finance Minister De Jager said he opposes using the EFSF to buy sovereign bonds in primary and secondary markets, and even objects to countries buying back their debt using funds provided by the EFSF. Although he supports extending the maturity of Greece’s rescue loans so that they match those offered to Ireland, he is opposed to lowering the interest rate charged to either country.
German industrial production for December was slightly softer than expected at +10%y/y, and the monthly figure surprisingly contracted at -1.5%. But the overall outlook for the German industrial sector remains strong and the ECB is on alert for leakage into additional inflationary pressures. A major German car producer announced a pay deal for its workers and further events of this kind across Germany could see the ECB Governing Council up its rhetoric on second-round effects.
JPY

Moody’s said it would not take action on Japan’s sovereign rating today, but warned that the rating could come under pressure in future if the government’s fiscal reform agenda does not succeed. The agency added that the current rating is being supported by affordability of debt servicing, as well as Japan’s ability to refinance its debt.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
EURCHF breaks 1.3069.
EURUSD BULLISH Pullback found support at 1.3509; focus is on 1.3741 break of which is required to refocus towards 1.3862 recent high.
USDJPY NEUTRAL While support holds at 81.13, initial resistance is at 82.47.
GBPUSD BULLISH Expect gains to target 1.6186 ahead of 1.6279/99 zone. Near-term support is defined at 1.6010.
USDCHF BULLISH Breach of 0.9610 has put focus on 0.9687 ahead of 0.9764; support at 0.9524.
AUDUSD BULLISH Upside potential targets 1.0200/56 resistance zone. Support lies at 1.0083.
USDCAD NEUTRAL Rise through 0.9932 has turned the model to neutral; resistance lies at 0.9978 while support is at 0.9832/20 zone.
EURCHF BULLISH Move above 1.3069 has open up the way towards 1.3206/87 resistance zone. Support at 1.2973.
EURGBP BEARISH Recovery through 0.8477 exposes 0.8564; while this resistance holds focus is on the downside with initial support defined at 0.8389.
EURJPY BULLISH Focus is on 112.92, break of this would expose 114.01 next. Support zone is at 110.78/32.

Forex Daily Market Commentary provided by GCI Financial Ltd.

GCI Financial Ltd (”GCI”) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (”Forex”) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (”CFDs”) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.

DISCLAIMER: GCI’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

By Russell Glaser

Rising expectations for an interest rate hike by the ECB have bolstered the euro in today’s trading. Crude oil was also a benefactor after rising off of its daily lows following an increase in Chinese interest rates.

Traders originally sold the euro following disappointing German industrial sales which contracted by 1.5%. Economists had forecasted an increase of 0.2%. However, market participants have since been encouraged by comments from ECB President Trichet that interest rates can be increased prior to the normalization of ECB monetary policy.

The EUR/CHF traded as high as 1.3100 and looks to close above the 100-day moving average at 1.3075.

The headline event of the day was an increase in Chinese interest rates as the PBOC hiked interest rates by 25 bps. The rise in the 1-year interest rate now takes the base lending measure in China to 6.0%. This move did not come as a surprise to the market which has predominantly priced in future tightening measures.

While one might be hesitant to put an exact level for future Chinese interest rate increases, most market participants are expecting further interest rate moves as well as other tightening measures to slow the rate of inflation in China.

Spot crude oil traded stronger after an initial knee-jerk reaction following the Chinese interest rate announcement when the commodity fell as low as $88.87, a price that coincides with the rising trend line from the August lows. The price then recovered and traded as high as 88.10.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Source: ForexYard

The euro gained against the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen in late trading Tuesday as stronger Japanese equities prompted investors to buy back the risk-sensitive currency, pushing it further off the two-week low against the greenback that it marked Monday. By yesterday’s close, the euro rose to $1.3630 from $1.3590 late Monday.

Economic News

USD – Dollar Falls as Investors Turn to Riskier Assets

The U.S. dollar fell against the euro in late trading Tuesday after China announced that it would raise rates. Investors have also become less worried about the unrest in Egypt, moving away from the dollar and looking to invest in riskier currencies. By yesterday’s close, the USD fell against the EUR, pushing the oft-traded currency pair to 1.3630.

China’s central bank said Tuesday that it would raise deposit and lending interest rates by a quarter percentage point, the second time China has raised rates in over a month.
The U.S. dollar had been gaining against the euro since late January when protests erupted on the streets of Egypt and investors were looking to invest in safe havens, such as the U.S. dollar. But investor concerns about Egypt have eased somewhat, analysts have said, pushing riskier currencies higher against the dollar Tuesday.

Looking ahead to today, the most important economic indicator scheduled to be released from the U.S. is the Crude Oil Inventories figure at 15:30 GMT. Traders will be paying close attention to today’s announcement as a stronger than expected result may boost the USD in the short-term. Traders are also advised to follow Fed Chairman Bernanke’s testimony at 15:00 GMT. This testimony is very likely to impact the dollar’s volatility. Traders are advised to watch closely, as this is likely to set the pace of the dollar going into the rest of the day’s trading.

EUR – EUR Moves Up against Safe Havens

The euro recovered on Tuesday, lifted by demand from Asian central banks, and buying against the Australian dollar, after a Chinese interest rate hike fueled concerns over its growth, as well as demand for commodities. As a result, the EUR gained 0.3% versus the greenback to $1.3630 as investors booked profits on long dollar positions taken in the last four days. The 17-nation common currency experienced similar behavior against the GBP and closed at 0.8480.

Gains in the euro were muted after a weaker-than-expected reading of German industrial output for December on Tuesday. That followed a dismal industrial orders report the previous day, leading to a sell-off in the common currency and a two-week low of $1.3507 against the USD.

Investors may look for the unusual price volatility to continue in the EUR/USD as the pair attempts to stabilize and find new support and resistance lines. Large price jumps such as these are not commonplace and present terrific opportunities to take advantage of the price swings for large profitable gains.

JPY – Yen Sees Mixed Results vs. Majors

The Japanese yen completed yesterday’s trading session with mixed results versus the other major currencies. The JPY was broadly unchanged versus the USD yesterday and closed its trading session around the 82.30 level. The JPY also saw bullishness against the GBP as it jumped around 60 points and closed at 1.3220.

Traders today have very little fundamental news emanating from Japan as the only major indicator being released is the Core Machinery Orders report. Analysts forecast the figure to increase from its previous reading. This indicator typically generates small amounts of volatility. However, the EUR and the USD appear to be clutching the reins of today’s market. Traders would be wise to note its future direction as it usually carries a heavy impact on the other currencies.

Crude Oil – Crude Oil Inventories Data to Drive Oil Trading Today

Oil prices fell sharply in the last few days to settle around $87.40 a barrel as concerns about Egypt’s political turmoil eased and investor focus returned to rising U.S. inventories and a tepid employment picture.

A new cabinet met in Egypt, easing investor fear that the unrest started in Tunisia could affect oil producer countries.

Today, the commodity is likely to drop further following the US Crude Oil Inventories figure, set to be released at 15:30 GMT. Typically, a surplus in US stockpiles means that the price of oil will go down, as it means that demand is down in the world’s largest crude oil consuming country.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The pair has been range-trading for a while now, with no specific direction. The daily chart’s Slow Stochastic is providing us with mixed signals. The 4-hour charts do not appear to be providing a clear direction either. Waiting for a clearer sign on the hourlies chart might be a good strategy today.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD went increasingly bearish yesterday, and currently stands at the 1.6060 level. The daily chart’s Slow Stochastic supports this currency cross to fall further today. However, the hourly chart’s RSI signals that a bullish correction could take place. Entering the pair when the signs are clearer seems to be the wise choice today.

USD/JPY

The 4-hour chart is showing mixed signals with its RSI fluctuating in neutral territory. However, the 8 hour chart’s RSI is already floating in the over-bought territory, indicating a bearish correction might take place in the nearest future. In that case, traders are advised to swing in after the breach.

USD/CHF

The pair recorded much bullish behavior yesterday. However, the technical data indicates that this trend may reverse soon. For example, the 8-hour chart’s RSI signals that a bearish reversal is imminent. Going short with tight stops might be a wise choice.

The Wild Card

Crude Oil

Crude Oil prices are once again dropping, and are currently trading around $87.20 a barrel. As of this morning, the 8-hour chart’s RSI was giving bullish signals, indicating that crude oil prices might go up today. This could give forex traders a great opportunity to enter a very popular trend early.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

The US dollar declined versus the euro on Tuesday however gained versus the Japanese Yen as disappointing bond auction resulted in high US Treasury Yields.

The Dollar index DXY which measures the US dollar’s movement versus its six major counterpart currencies declined to 77.962 on Tuesday’ s North American trading session as compared to 77.994 on Monday.

The selling pressure in the US dollar was increased after China announced to increase its key interest rates against the expectations of investors who were projecting a more tightening approach from the Peoples Bank of China. This is the third interest rate hike by Chinese Central Bank since October.  According to experts measures like these are creating uncertainty among investors about China’s economy.

The Euro surged to 1.3634 versus the US dollar as compared to $1.3597 o Monday’s late trading session.

However the greenback advanced against the Japanese Yen to 82.55 as compared to 82.32 on Monday as the yields on US 10-year notes hit their highest since April which make the greenback more attractive for investors. The Yen is highly sensitive to US bond yields as Japan holds major proportion of US debts.

The British Pound declined to 1.6071 against the US dollar as compared to 1.6125 on Monday’s late trading session. The reason behind the declined in Pound Sterling was associated with the increase in tax on banks imposed by the British government.

The Australian dollar initially traded under selling pressure and declined to 1.0113 against the US dollar but later in session recovered the gained 0.3 percent to $1.0155.

About the Author

Daily forex trading news written by Rehan from DailyForexTrade.com

The EUR rebounded from a two-week low against the greenback on Tuesday after a Chinese interest rate hike fueled concerns over its growth. Additionally, demand for commodities prompted traders to unwind bets against the US currency.

As for today, there are several important events coming out of the U.S. and Europe, especially the U.S Crude Oil Inventories report. These events always provide for extreme market volatility in the major currency pairs. Traders may find good opportunities to enter the market following these vital announcements.

Here are today’s leading events:

15:00 GMT: Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is due to deliver a testimony on the economic outlook and monetary and fiscal policy of the United States before the House Budget Committee in Washington D.C.

There is the possibility that Bernanke will comment on a number of developments in the region and hint at future Fed policies. Speculators will attempt to use those statements as a gauge of direction for the USD in the coming weeks and adjust their positions accordingly. Therefore, this testimony will likely create volatility as it gets underway.

15:30 GMT: Crude Oil Inventories

Analysts are predicting today’s figure to come in around 2.2M, which if true, would signal a slight drop from last week’s figure of 2.6M. While this might lead some traders to believe that demand is going up in the US, and they should therefore go bullish on oil, 2.2M is still a very high figure, suggesting demand has so far failed to pick up in the world’s leading oil consumer.