InvestMacro FX

By Adam Hewison

This particular technical formation has been around for years and continues to produce good profits for traders who can spot it, and better yet, take advantage of it.

In this new short video, I’m going to share the market, the pattern, and a price projection where we think this market is headed based on our Trade Triangle technology.

I hope that this educational video will help you spot this very same technical formation in the future. The video is extremely short and will only take a few minutes of your time, however, the lesson is priceless.

As always our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements. Our only request is that you tell your friends, Tweet and Facebook about this blog posting. We would also enjoy hearing from you, so please feel free to comment on this blog about this video.

All the best,
Adam Hewison
President of INO.com
Co-founder of MarketClub

To see more of Adam’s videos click here or sign up for Adam’s Free 10-part Professional Trading Course.

By Anton Eljwizat

A bullish movement in Russell 2000 has pushed a number of technical indicators into the over-bought territory. As I will demonstrate below, Russell 2000 may very well be heading for a reversal, as a bearish cross has taken place on the Slow Stochastic. In addition, the Williams Percent Range indicates that the price of this cross currently floats in the overbought territory, signaling downward pressure. Forex traders can take advantage of this impending movement by having their Entry Orders in place to capture this reversal. Don’t forget your Stops and Limits!

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By CountingPips.com

U.S. Consumer Prices increased slightly more than unexpected in January as energy and food price rises helped push the index higher, according to a report released today by the U.S. Department of Labor. The Consumer Price Index, a key measurement of inflation, increased by 0.4 percent in January following an increase of 0.4 percent in December and a 0.1 percent gain in November.

Today’s data just surpassed economic forecasts that were expecting a 0.3 percent increase. Consumer prices have now shown higher levels every month since July 2010.

The annual rate of consumer prices rose by 1.6 percent when compared to January 2010 following an increase in December by 1.5 percent.

Rising energy prices were a significant contributor in the increased inflation as the report showed that the energy index rose by 2.1 percent and gasoline prices increased by 3.5 percent for the month. Food prices rose by 0.5 percent in January after a 0.1 percent increase in December.

The core inflation reading, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.2 percent for the month and just above the market forecasts expecting a 0.1 percent gain. The annual rate of core inflation increased by 1.0 percent for January following an increase of 0.8 percent in December.

Elsewhere in US economic releases, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve manufacturing survey rose by much more than expected with a 35.9 score in February. This follows a 19.3 reading in January and surpassed the 21.0 score economic forecasts were expecting.

The US leading indicators index edged up by 0.1 percent in January following the 0.8 percent score in December. The data was just below forecasts looking for 0.2 percent.

US initial jobless claims rose back above 400,000 last week with a total of 410,000 new weekly jobless claims. This was a rise of 25,000 claims from the week prior which totaled 385,000. Continuing claims for jobless benefits were virtually unchanged from the previous week.

US Dollar on defensive in Forex Trading

The U.S. dollar has been lower cross the board in forex trading today against the other major currencies in the early going of the US trading session. The dollar has been losing ground versus the euro, Canadian dollar, British pound sterling, New Zealand dollar, Australian dollar, Swiss franc and the Japanese yen, according to currency data by Oanda.

The US stock markets, meanwhile, have had been close to unchanged to start the day with the Dow Jones falling by over 3 points, the Nasdaq decreasing by under one point and the S&P 500 showing a 1 decline point gain.

Oil has traded about unchanged at $85.06 per barrel while gold futures have risen by $5.80 to $1.380.50 per ounce.

By Anton Eljwizat

DAX 30 rose significantly in the past month and peaked at 7440 level. However, the daily chart is suggesting that a recent upwards trend is loosing steam and a bearish correction is impending. Forex traders can take advantage of this imminent downward movement by entering short positions at an excellent entry price.

• Below is the daily chart for DAX 30 by ForexYard.

• The technical indicators used are the Slow Stochastic, MACD and Williams Percent Range.

• Point 1: There is a “doji” candlestick that has formed on the chart, indicating that a reversal should take place.

• Point 2: The Slow Stochastic indicates a bearish cross, signaling that the next move may be in a downward direction.

• Point 3: The Williams Percent Range has peaked near at the 0 marker, which means that there may actually be a strong level of downward pressure.

• Point 4: The MACD indicates an impending bearish cross, which may signal a downward movement is going to occur in the near future.

DAX Daily Chart

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By CountingPips.com

The US dollar been on the defensive against the Swiss franc this week after reaching a swing high level late last week at the 0.9775 exchange rate. The USD/CHF currency pair has been on the decline each day this week and has fallen from 0.9729 to currently trading around 0.9530 Thursday in the US session.

Price action this month has seen February’s USD/CHF high point coincide with the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement level (on the down move from the 1.0065 level on December 1st to the low point at 0.9299 on December 31st). January’s high point or swing high at 0.9783 also encountered resistance at the same 61.8 Fibonacci resistance level before trending its way lower.

The pair trades right around its 50-day moving average in red while the MACD indicator shows a possible imminent bearish cross signal. An immediate previous support level below presents itself at 0.9525 with the 23.6 Fibonacci retracement level following below that near 0.9480.

USD/CHF Daily Chart

By GCI Forex Research

Fundamental Outlook at 0800 GMT (EDT + 0400)

USD

A lack of news flow ensured a relatively subdued Asia session, although the dollar still weakened against most of its G10 peers. EURUSD traded 1.3536-1.3609, USDJPY 83.50-83.86. Asian stocks continue to make gains, as risk appetite firmed despite further tensions in the Middle East. Earlier, the S&P 500 closed +0.63% ahead, and has now doubled since the mid-crisis intra-day low of March 2009. US data was mixed. Housing starts surprised to the upside despite bad weather, though building permits dropped as expected. Industrial production unexpectedly fell -0.1%, and PPI and core PPI both rose more than anticipated, though our US economists caution on any extrapolation as January has usually shown exaggerated swings.
The FOMC minutes showed diminishing downside risks, however, the “assessment of the most likely outcomes for economic activity and inflation over the projection period was not greatly changed.” The committee upgraded its estimate for 2011 real (inflation-adjusted) GDP growth but only modestly lowered its unemployment forecast. It also lowered its inflation forecast. Changes to the outlook may not occur quickly enough to scale back QE2 but our economists expect that the growth outlook, if realized, would be sufficient for the FOMC to allow the balance sheet to contract from H2 2011, followed by a gradual tightening cycle beginning in 2012.
EUR

German Chancellor Merkel nominated Jens Weidmann, her chief economic adviser, as the next Bundesbank president. Current Bundesbank President Weber is expected to remain in the post until April 30.
We remain negative on the euro as US growth is likely to outperform that of the Eurozone this year. We also doubt that Europe’s “comprehensive solution” due by the end of March will solve the sovereign debt crisis.
GBP

Sterling sold off after BoE Governor King talked down expectations of an early rate hike. He said that “some people are running ahead of themselves” if they think the BoE is laying the groundwork for a rate rise. He denied that the bank was endorsing the market’s expectations for future policy tightening. He also dismissed the idea that the BoE might deliver an early hike to allay public concern about inflation, adding that the MPC is “not in the business of futile gestures”.
Nevertheless, our analysts note that the BoE’s inflation forecast was revised up in the quarterly inflation report, despite a new higher path for interest rates being used (this higher path assumes the policy rate will reach 1% by year-end). Our UK economist sticks to his view that the first hike to the policy rate will come in Q3, although he acknowledges that the chances of a May hike are now “significant”. Attention will now shift to the minutes of the BoE’s Feb. 10 policy meeting, which are due for release next week.
Unemployment data was slightly disappointing; the market was predicting a decline in the jobless claims number by 3k but the number came in at +2.4k, with the claimant count rate and ILO rate unchanged.
CHF

The Swiss government announced measures to help domestic industries cope with the strong Swiss franc. However, these measures do not aim to weaken the franc itself, and the government was clear that monetary policy is the responsibility of the SNB. The franc overreacted to the news, falling one big figure against the euro and dollar before eventually recovering.
AUD

RBA Assistant Governor Lowe noted that higher commodity prices are adding to global inflationary pressures, and he sees risks to Asian growth if central banks are forced to respond to accelerating food inflation.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
GBPUSD 1.6186 resistance.
EURUSD NEUTRAL 1.3621 and 1.3428 mark the near-term bull and bear triggers respectively.
USDJPY BULLISH Focus is on 84.21/51 resistance zone. Support at 83.10.
GBPUSD BULLISH Recovery stalled in front of 1.6186; move above the level would expose 1.6279. Support is defined at 1.5987.
USDCHF BULLISH Pullback through 0.9575 exposes 0.9524. Initial resistance at 0.9739 ahead of 0.9776.
AUDUSD NEUTRAL Initial resistance at 1.0075, while support is defined at 0.9944.
USDCAD BEARISH The pair eyes 0.9832/20 support zone; break through this would expose 0.9712. Near-term resistance at 0.9905.
EURCHF BULLISH As long as support at 1.2973 holds, expect gains to target 1.3131 ahead of 1.3206.
EURGBP BEARISH Move below initial support 0.8356 would expose 0.8332. Near-term resistance is at 0.8450.
EURJPY BULLISH Targets 114.01/94 resistance area. Support lies at 11291.

Forex Daily Market Commentary provided by GCI Financial Ltd.

GCI Financial Ltd (”GCI”) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (”Forex”) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (”CFDs”) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.

DISCLAIMER: GCI’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

By Anton Eljwizat

Following yesterday’s heavy news day, currency values appear to be experiencing wide swings in value. The US dollar took a dive versus most of its currency rivals, while the euro regained much of last week’s losses. As this week begins to come to a close, the rest of this week’s busy calendar events appear poised to continue pushing forex values into volatile price shifts.

Here is a roundup of today’s leading events:

13:30 GMT: USD – Core CPI

The monthly release of the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) represents the change in price of goods and services in the United States, minus the food and energy sectors. It is one of the primary inflationary gauges used by the Federal Reserve to determine whether or not interest rates should be raised. If the Core CPI only rises by 0.1%, as expected, then the impact on the US dollar should be limited. A drastically different figure than what is forecast could affect the USD, but direction is unclear at this point.

15:00 GMT: USD – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

Approximately 250 manufacturers are surveyed in Philadelphia to create this index which measures industry growth in one of the largest manufacturing cities in the United States. This month’s survey is set to reveal continued expansion in the manufacturing sector of Philadelphia’s economy. However, the rate appears to be slowing as forecasts are expecting a decline in the level of the diffusion index.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Source: ForexYard

The U.S. dollar slid against the euro following a rally in global equity markets yesterday. The rally prompted investors to turn to higher yielding assets and away from safe havens like the USD. With recent market optimism, traders may continue to see a small downward trend in the dollar as positions are unwound in exchange for riskier assets.

Economic News

USD – USD Declines Following Heavy News Day

The U.S. dollar slipped against the EUR and CHF Wednesday, erasing some early morning gains after encouraging U.S. economic data sent traders into riskier, higher-yielding assets. By yesterday’s close, the greenback had fallen against the EUR, pushing the oft-traded currency pair to 1.3600. The dollar experienced similar behavior against the Swiss franc, closing at 0.9580.

The producer price index (PPI) rose 0.8% last month, nearly in line with the consensus forecast of 0.9%. The manufacturing sector has been steadily growing in recent months, indicating the pace of economic recovery could be picking up.

Yesterday’s economic reports bolstered U.S. Treasury yields, but higher yields weren’t enough of an incentive to get the active market participants to continue buying dollars. Instead, traders saw the upbeat news as a reason to search out riskier assets. U.S. stocks and crude oil were among the biggest beneficiaries of increased risk demand.

Looking ahead to today, the most important economic indicators scheduled to be released from the U.S. is the CPI figures at 13:30 GMT. Traders will be paying close attention to today’s announcement as a stronger than expected result may continue to boost risk appetite in the short-term.

EUR – EUR Bullish vs. Majors as Traders Turn to Riskier Assets

The euro rallied broadly against most of it major currency pairs on Wednesday as U.S. stocks rose, though gains were likely temporary given doubts about the ability of euro zone members to tap bond markets.

The 17-nation common currency extended gains against the U.S. dollar and closed around 1.3600. The EUR experienced similar behavior against the GBP as the pair rose from 0.8355 to 0.8436 by day’s end.

The EUR was affected by a U.S. stock market rally and a bearish dollar. Growth in stocks led investors to buy back into the EUR, as they looked for returns on buying commodity-linked and higher-yielding currencies in yesterday’s trading.

Turning to today, traders will want to pay particular attention to inflationary and manufacturing data out of the United States. Should these figures indicate further improvements in the U.S. economy, the euro could maintain its current course, and could even push towards the 1.3700 resistance level against the greenback.

JPY – Yen Lower vs. Major Currency Pairs

The Japanese yen saw a very bearish trading session yesterday, losing ground against all of its currency crosses. The JPY did gain mildly against the USD, however, closing around 83.50. The yen lost almost 100 points versus the EUR, closing at 113.60; and just about 30 points versus the CHF, ending the day at 1.3020.

The JPY’s trends will be affected by the rallies of its primary currency pairs today. It seems that the USD and EUR are expected to continue trading volatile today, especially against the Japanese currency.

Traders should keep a close look on the news coming from the U.S. and Canada as these economies will be the deciding factors in the JPY’s movement today. It is also advisable for traders to follow any unexpected comments coming from key Japanese governmental figures, as this is also likely to lead to further JPY volatility.

Crude Oil – Oil Trading Higher after Inventories Rise Less than Forecast

Oil prices rose to a 10-day peak on Wednesday as upbeat European and US manufacturing data reinforced optimism about economic and energy demand growth. After U.S. inventory data revealed stockpiles growing less than expected, the price for a barrel of Crude Oil jumped back above $88, where it has remained throughout today’s early trading sessions.

Manufacturing in the United States and Europe accelerated in December and growth in China and India slowed to a more sustainable level, helping to fuel a move by investors into commodity-link and higher-yielding currencies. Traders should focus on today’s manufacturing reports from the United States as these will no doubt carry a direct impact on the supply-demand aspect of the equation for oil prices.

Technical News

EUR/USD

This pair is already showing indications of a correction to yesterday’s spike in value. The daily MACD reveals a bearish cross, suggesting an imminent downward movement. The weekly Stochastic (slow) supports this notion with a bearish cross of its own. Traders may want to begin pricing in a downward movement of this pair today.

GBP/USD

The pair has been range-trading for a while now, with no specific direction. The daily chart’s MACD is providing us the only clear indication of direction with a fresh bearish cross suggesting an imminent downturn. It appears as if waiting for a clearer sign on the hourlies might be a good short-term strategy today.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY experienced a bearish movement yesterday. Moreover, it seems that this trend may be gaining strength. The daily Stochastic (slow) reveals a bearish cross and a sharply descending price movement, suggesting strong bearish momentum. Going short might be a wise choice today as a result.

USD/CHF

The pair has recorded much bearish behavior in the past several days. However, the technical data indicates that this trend may reverse anytime soon. For example, the daily chart’s MACD indicates that a bullish reversal is imminent. An upward trend today is also supported by the RSI. Going long with tight stops may pay off.

The Wild Card

Crude Oil

Crude Oil prices rose significantly yesterday and peaked at $88.76 a barrel. The daily chart’s MACD is floating in the over-sold territory with an impending bullish cross, suggesting that the recent bullish trend is gaining momentum and may persist over the next day or two. This might be a good opportunity for forex traders to enter this uptrend at a relatively early moment and capture this remaining price action for quick profits.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By CountingPips.com

Thursday February 17th

• Eurozone current-account

• United States consumer price index

• United States weekly jobless claims

• United States leading indicators

• United States Philadelphia Fed survey

Weekly Economic Calendar

Manila Water Company or MWC in the Philippine Stock Exchange, a subsidiary of Ayala Corporation, is in the business of water delivery and sewerage sanitation services to the East block of Metro Manila. MWC, however, is notorious to a lot of people who lives and do business in Quezon City, Makati, San Juan, Taguig, Mandaluyong, Manila, Pateros, and Marikina because of the traffic congestion that they company cause on the roads. As if Metro Manila’s streets aren’t congested enough, here’s MWC doing its thing to keep it more so. While MWC’s objective of digging fractions of roads could be honest, they company needs to do a better job of planning it. You see, after digging a certain portion of the road for quite some time and eventually repairing the road again, sooner or later they will come back to dig again. Such a hassle. And they do not even fix the portion of the road back in its original finish or better. Boo.

In any case, despite my rants above, MWC could bring me in some money at this point in time if I play it right and if, of course, the market goes my way. As you can see from its chart above, MWC looks to be due for a rally. After a less than stellar performance during the fourth quarter of last year so far this year, its shares has weakened back to its primary uptrend line which all started back in January 2009. Notice also that MWC’s 200-day moving average appears to be keeping it afloat as well. Now, these supports are major as they can be so a rally would most likely happen. A rebound from its present level could sent it back to it’s former high around PHP 19.70. A fall below the two supports, on the other hand, could send it down to PHP 16.50 or PHP 16.00.

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