InvestMacro FX

Good morning everyone! Speaking of mornings, I am very hungry since I haven’t had my breakfast yet. And guess what?! I smell (FOOD) from outside my hotel room. Literally! Anyway, today’s stock feature is about Alliance Select Foods, Inc. or FOOD in the Philippine Stock Exchange which was formerly known as Alliance Tuna International, Inc. or TUNA. In my entry last February 3 (kindly see it here), I suggested that FOOD could swing up to another level soon. However, that did not pan out well as it just continued to move in a side way fashion after springing to a high of PHP 1.85 from PHP 1.52 in a little more than a week’s time. Yesterday (February 21), though, a breakout from now a complex pennant formation happened!

As you can see from its daily chart, FOOD breached both the psychological PHP 1.80 level and the pennant’s resistance when it closed at its high of PHP 1.82 from an opening and low of PHP 1.74. Yesterday’s price action, in my opinion, is very bullish since it as mentioned it ended the day at its high. Notice the long green candle which some call as a bullish morubozu in Japanese terms. Yesterday’s move was also supported by a relatively high volume, indicating that a climb north would be sustained. Now, if buying interest remains (barring any negative market reaction from the present situation in the Middle East), FOOD could aim for its upside target of around PHP 2.12.

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The exciting 2010 is already behind us and it’s high time that we discuss what is going to happen in the investment market in 2011. Without a crystal ball, it is always difficult to make predictions for the upcoming year, but some industry experts can certainly sit together to analyze some future market trends that would help the people take wise and informed decisions while investing in the forex market. If you have amassed a huge amount of unsecured debts and are looking for ways to get relief from debt, the concerns of this article will perhaps help you out.

The Euro debt crisis, various cycles of US quantitative easing and the political upheaval in Washington DC marked the economic activities in 2010. So what do we look forward for in 2011? Here are some possible outcomes for the currency market or the forex market and the entire world economies in 2011.

1. The US dollar: As the industry experts are all set to make their predictions on the global forex market, there has also been a simultaneous speculation about the US dollar. The first question asked by most of the investors is ‘how will the US dollar fare in this year’. However, the industry experts are of the opinion that the US dollar will stay on the quiet side till the mid of 2011 but it is expected to drop sharply in the month of October.

2. Will there be economic stability in 2011: The most asked question of 2011 is whether or not there will be any stability within the economy in 2011 so that it could help the forex market. Yes, the experts are of the opinion that everything will appear to be improving and there will be some unexpected progressions since October. However, these changes will again get back to a normal position till March 2012.

3. Austerity measures will crash the pound: There will be many austerity measures coming into effect in 2011 and such measures will hurt the value of the pound sterling. The austerity measures will take a toll on the employment scenario in Britain. The pound value is expected to continue downhill.

4. The Japanese Yen will lose some ground: The traders trading with the Japanese currency, Yen will soon go through a frustrating experience as the Yen will lose some ground in 2011. As there are too many events moving the Yen and unfortunately, the most important events are not moving it at all.

Apart from all the above mentioned forex market predictions, the experts are also of the opinion that the consumers are least likely to suffer from forex related scams. There will be more regulation that will be governing the forex market over the entire globe and therefore there will be fewer chances of such companies fooling the consumers. Therefore, if you are looking for instant relief from debt, make sure you invest in the forex market to earn huge returns and utilize the proceeds in paying off your financial obligations.

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Article by Charles Anderson

By Anton Eljwizat

Gold prices rose significantly in the last week and peaked at $1396.76 an ounce. Gold has made a significant upward correction, which can be directly correlated with the bullish trend of the EUR/USD cross. However, the daily chart is suggesting that a recent upward trend is losing steam and a bearish correction is impending. This recent activity has raised the stakes for traders. From here on, the forex and commodity markets will see very high volatility indeed.

• Below is the daily chart for gold by ForexYard.

• The technical indicators used are the Slow Stochastic, RSI and Williams Percent Range.

• Point 1: The Slow Stochastic indicates an impending bearish cross, signaling that the next move may be in a downward direction.

• Point 2: The Williams Percent Range has peaked at the 0 marker and has turned bearish; this means that there may actually be a strong level of downward pressure.

• Point 3: The RSI signals that the price of this pair currently floats in the over-bought territory, suggesting downward pressure.

Gold Daily Chart

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Seniorstrategist Ib Fredslund Madsen take a look at the week ahead.

And since the week is very thin on economic data and events, investors might look for direction in the Middle East, where things are developing day by day.

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Video courtesy of en.jyskebank.tv

By CountingPips.com

The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), showed that futures speculators  decreased their short positions of the US dollar against the other major currencies. Non-commercial futures positions, those taken by hedge funds and large speculators, were overall net short the US dollar by $23.2 billion against other major currencies as of February 15th. This is a decline from the total short position of $26.3 billion on February 8th, according to the CFTC data and calculations by Reuters which calculates the dollar positions against the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

This week’s data saw some notable changes with Japanese yen positions turning negative for the first time since June while Canadian dollar and British pound sterling positions rose sharply.

EuroFx: Currency speculators trimmed their net long positions in the euro against the U.S. dollar for a second consecutive week. Futures positions in the euro fell to a total of 32,464 long positions as of February 15th following a total of 34,734 long positions on February 8th. The graph below overlays the EUR/USD spot closing price of the Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported.

The COT report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions as of the previous Tuesday. It can be a useful tool for traders to gauge investor sentiment and to look for potential changes in the direction of a currency or commodity. Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, where as a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar. The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair .

GBP: Speculators sharply increased their net long British pound sterling positions and long bets for the sterling rose for a fifth straight week as of February 15th to their highest position in over a year. Pound sterling contracts rose to a total of 52,572 long positions after totaling 24,475 long positions as of February 8th.

JPY: The Japanese yen net contracts decreased sharply as of February 15th to the lowest level since June 2010. Yen positions fell to a total of 18,548 short contracts. Yen positions had totaled 36,731 net long contracts reported on February 8th.

CHF: Swiss franc long positions rose back above 10,000 to a total of 10,518 long contracts as of February 15th. Franc contracts totaled a net of 8,181 long contracts on February 8th.

CAD: The Canadian dollar positions advanced sharply higher and increased for a third straight week to a total of 72,090 net long contracts. CAD long positions had registered 39,790 net longs on February 8th.

AUD: The Australian dollar long positions dipped after reaching their highest level since April last week. AUD contracts totaled a net amount of 65,514 long contracts as of February 15th after AUD positions had totaled 71,979 net long contracts on February 8th.

NZD: New Zealand dollar futures positions edged lower to a total of 9,810 long positions as of February 15th. NZD large speculator long positions had increased the previous week to a total of 10,857 long contracts on February 8th.

MXN: Mexican peso long contracts rose higher for a sixth consecutive week as of February 15th to 109,096 net long positions after totaling 103,812 longs the week prior on February 8th.

COT Data Summary as of February 15, 2011
Large Speculators Net Positions vs. the US Dollar

Euro: +32,464
British pound sterling: +52,572
Japanese yen: -18,548
Swiss franc: +10,518
Canadian dollar: +72,090
Australian dollar: +65,514
New Zealand dollar: +9,810
Mexican peso: +109,096

Further COT Resources from around the web:

• Forecast The FX Market With The COT Report

• The Only Indicator You Will Ever Need

By GCI Forex Research

Fundamental Outlook at 0800 GMT (EDT + 0400)

USD

Price action lacked conviction during the Asia session, despite the emergence of a partial agreement at the weekend G20 meeting. EURUSD traded 1.3666-1.3716, USDJPY 83.02-83.19. The S&P 500 finished up 0.19% with volumes hitting a three-week high. The G20 agreed on a set of economic indicators that could eventually be used to measure the scale of global imbalances. The list includes public debt and fiscal deficits, private debt and the savings rate, and the trade balance and net investment income flows and transfers. Newswires reported that China blocked the inclusion of FX reserves and the real effective exchange rate as two other indicators. The objective now is to set guideline levels for this list of indicators by the April meeting, but the communique stressed that these would only be indicative and would not represent firm targets. The text also repeated a commitment to enhance “exchange rate flexibility to better reflect underlying economic fundamentals” and to avoid both “persistent misalignment” and “disorderly movements” of exchange rates. Canada’s Finance Minister Flaherty said “there was no indication by China that they intended to be more flexible with their currency immediately”. US Treasury Secretary Geithner said that China’s currency “remains substantially undervalued”.
EUR

ECB Executive Board member Bini-Smaghi spoke overnight, but his remarks failed to excite the euro in the way they did on Friday. However, he did express concern that the rise in food prices may be permanent, which clearly qualifies as a hawkish remark.
On Friday Bini-Smaghi said that “as the economy gradually recovers and global inflationary pressures arise, the degree of accommodation of monetary policy has to be monitored and, if needed, corrected”. The remarks signaled no ambition to tighten policy in the near term but, coming on the heels of an above-consensus German PPI reading, the market interpreted them as hawkish.
ECB President Trichet said that the rising price of commodities and energy is being watched “very, very closely”, and that consequent inflationary pressures “are to be taken seriously”.
US Treasury Secretary Geithner said EU leaders made it clear at the G20 meeting that they would do “whatever it takes” to ensure Eurozone nations “and their banks” have access to Financing.
JPY

Finance Minister Noda said that Japan plans to continue buying bonds issued by the European Financial Stability Facility.

GBP

BoE Deputy Governor Tucker spoke on Friday night but confined his remarks to regulatory issues, and did not discuss monetary policy. The latest minutes show that Tucker favoured no policy adjustment in January. The minutes from the Feb. 10 policy meeting, which are due for release on Wednesday, will reveal whether he or other MPC members have since shifted their stance away from neutral.

CAD

BoC Governor Carney said it is possible that Q4 GDP growth could be firmer than the +2.3% y/y projected in the January monetary policy report.
Finance Minister Flaherty said that Canadian business overall “is comfortable” with the current level of the CAD.
The CAD weakened on Friday after headline and core CPI for January came in below consensus expectations.

AUD

AUDUSD briefly fell on Friday after China hiked its reserve ratio requirement by 50bp. As investors have become more accustomed to such hikes over the past year, the AUD has become progressively less troubled by them.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
EURUSD 1.3744 resistance.
EURUSD BULLISH Rise above 1.3696 has exposed 1.3744 ahead of 1.3826. Near-term support at 1.3546.
USDJPY BULLISH Pullback through 83.10 has exposed 82.89. While this level holds, expect recovery towards 83.98.
GBPUSD BULLISH The pair targets 1.6279/99 resistance zone. Support is defined at 1.6149.
USDCHF BEARISH Violation of 0.9451 triggers negative tone. Next support lies at 0.9329/01 area. Initial resistance at 0.9539.
AUDUSD BULLISH Momentum is positive; break above 1.0200 would expose 1.0256, support defined at 1.0018.
USDCAD BEARISH Move below 0.9816 would expose 0.9745/12 area. Near-term resistance at 0.9905.
EURCHF NEUTRAL Initial resistance is at 1.3029 ahead of 1.3131, support lies at 1.2867.
EURGBP BEARISH Remains heavy below 0.8450; a push below 0.8356 would expose 0.8332/13 zone.
EURJPY BULLISH Look for a break above114.94 for extension of the bull trend towards 115.42/68. Near-term support holds at 112.95.

Forex Daily Market Commentary provided by GCI Financial Ltd.

GCI Financial Ltd (”GCI”) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (”Forex”) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (”CFDs”) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.

DISCLAIMER: GCI’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

By Dan Eduard

The next week promises to be quite volatile as a large amount of significant news out of the US gets set to be released. Following this week’s bearish run from the USD, investors are anxious to see whether the dollar will be able to stage an upward correction.

USD traders will want to pay particular attention to Tuesday’s CB Consumer Confidence figure, as well as Wednesday and Thursday’s Existing and New Home Sales figures. Early predictions are showing that each figure is likely to improve slightly over last month. In addition, Thursday’s Unemployment Claims figure is likely to generate heavy activity in the marketplace. After this week’s disappointing figure, all eyes will be closely watching to see if the number of unemployed people drops in the US. If so, the dollar may turn out to have a profitable week.

The euro is also likely to see some volatility next week. In addition to specific indicators like Monday’s German Ifo Business Climate and Friday’s French Consumer Spending figure, traders will want to focus on any news regarding euro-zone debt. The last few weeks has seen the 17-nation single currency drop as renewed sovereign debt worries in the euro-zone caused investors to turn away from the currency. It appears that the euro will not be able to stage a consistent recovery until a concrete plan is established to combat the debt issues.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Source: ForexYard

Last week, one of the most notable trends in the market was the bullish euro. By Friday, the euro was once again boosted on speculation that the ECB will hike interest rates in February. Today, several economic releases are expected from the euro-zone. Will the euro see another bullish session?

Economic News

USD – Dollar Closes a Bearish Week Following Weak U.S. Economic Data

The U.S. dollar fell against most of its major currency counterparts during last week’s trading session. The dollar saw a 300 pip fall against the euro and a 250 pip drop against the British pound. As a result, the EUR/USD has crossed the 1.3700 level and the GBP/USD is trading near the 1.6250 level.

The dollar depreciated last week against most of the major currencies following disappointing economic releases from the U.S. The Long-Term Purchases report has shown that global demand for U.S. stocks, bonds and other financial assets fell in December. Net buying of long-term equities, notes and bonds totaled $65.9 billion during the month compared with net buying of $85.1 billion in November.

In addition, Retails Sales in the U.S. have increased less than projected in January. Purchases increased by 0.3 percent, the smallest gain since a drop in June. Sales at retailers were depressed by a drop in demand at building material stores and restaurants in the U.S.

As for the week ahead, the most impacting economic releases from the U.S. look to be the Consumer Confidence, the Existing Home Sales, the Durable Goods Orders, the New Home Sales, and the Preliminary Gross Domestic Data. Traders are advised to follow these reports as each and every one of them has potential to boost market’s volatility. Traders should also note that the dollar might see fewer fluctuations today as U.S. banks will be closed in observance of President’s Day.

EUR – Euro Strengthens vs. Rivals on Increased Risk-Appetite

The euro saw a bullish trend against most of the major currencies during last week’s trading session. The euro gained about 300 pips against the U.S. dollar, and the EUR/USD pair has crossed the 1.3700 bar. The 17-naiton currency also saw a 180 pips gain vs. the Japanese yen.

The euro strengthened last week following a U.S. stock market rally. The rally has boosted risk-appetite in the market, and as a result increased demand for higher-yielding assets, such as the euro and the British pound.

The euro was also affected by the bearish dollar. The dollar weakened last week after several economic reports have shown that the U.S. economy is recovering at a slower pace than estimated.

Last, the euro gained after a European Central Bank board member Lorenzo Smaghi hinted that an interest rates hike may take place soon in order to fight the rising inflation.

Looking ahead to this week, traders are advised to follow the leading economic releases from Germany, as any economic data from the euro zone’s largest economy is likely to impact the euro. Traders are also advised to follow speculations regarding a possible interest rates hike, as these speculations have potential to further support the euro.

JPY – Reduced Risk-Aversion Weakens the Yen

The Japanese yen fell against most of its major currency rivals during last week’s session. The yen dropped about 180 pips against the euro and about 240 pips vs. the British pound. The GBP/JPY cross has reached as high as the 135.45 level last week.

The yen fell last week as reduced risk-aversion, caused by a rally of U.S. stocks, has boosted demand for higher-yielding assets and weakened demand for safe-have currencies, such as the yen.

In addition, it was reported last week that Japan’s economy contracted for the first time in five quarters. Gross Domestic Product shrank an annualized 1.1 percent in the three months ended in December 31. As a result, China’s economy overtook Japan’s as the world’s second largest for 2010.

As for this week, traders are advised to follow the leading economic releases from the Japanese economy, such as the Trade Balance and the Tokyo Core Consumer Price Index. Positive data might correct some of the yen’s losses.

Crude Oil – Crude Oil Climbs Back To $91.65 a Barrel on Middle East Unrest

Crude oil began last week’s session with a falling trend, and reached as low as $83.85 a barrel. However, the trend has then promptly reversed, and crude gained to $90.95 by Friday. As this week’s trading begins, crude continues to rally, and is currently trading near $91.50 a barrel.

Crude oil rally continues as violence escalated in Libya, increasing concerns that crude supplies from the Middle East will be disrupted. Following the protests in Tunis and Egypt, the unrest has spread to Libya and Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi’s son has warned that a civil would risk the country’s oil wealth.

As for this week, traders are advised to first and for most follow the developments in the Middle East. If the protest in Libya will proceed, and in case that the unrest will spread to Iran as well, crude prices could undergo another rally.

Technical News

EUR/USD

There is a very distinct bullish channel formed on the 4-hour channel, as the pair is currently floating in the middle of it. Nevertheless, as a bearish cross takes place on the chart’s Slow Stochastic, it seems that a bearish correction might take place. Going short with tight stops could be the right strategy today.

GBP/USD

The cable recently saw several failed attempts to breach through the 1.6260 level. Currently, as the 1-hour chart’s Bollinger Bands are tightening, it seems that the pair might see another attempt shortly. If the pair will manage to cross the 1.6260 level, it might spur a sharp bullish move; otherwise the pair might undergo a modest correction today.

USD/JPY

Ever since the USD/JPY pair has peaked at the 83.95 level, it’s been dropping constantly, and is currently trading near the 83.10 level. In addition, as the MACD on 4-hour chart continues to point down, it seems that the pair’s bearish move might proceed today. Going short seems to be the right choice today.

USD/CHF

There is a very accurate bearish channel formed on the 4-hour chart, as the pair is currently floating in the middle of it. In addition, as both the Slow Stochastic and the RSI on the daily chart are providing bearish indications, it seems that the pair might see another bearish session today, with potential to reach the 0.9320 level.

The Wild Card

Crude Oil

After falling below the $84.00 level, crude prices began recovering, and a barrel of crude is currently trading near $91.50. In addition, the daily chart’s MACD has lately completed a bullish cross at a relatively low level, signaling that the bullish move has more steam in it. This might be a great opportunity for forex traders to join a very popular trend.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

No doubt every trader in the market at this week’s start noticed the sudden surge in commodity prices. Precious metals like Gold and Silver in particular have gained an exorbitant amount over the past month. But are their price movements on par with one another?

Looking at the fundamental side, the tensions spreading across the Middle East and North Africa have indeed carried a high impact on commodity prices; Gold and Crude Oil especially. Oil’s price rise appears in line with the safe-haven Gold, but fundamental factors affecting the speculation of oil supply disruptions are more likely behind Crude’s latest price moves and may be more sharply affected by developments in the region.

Gold and Silver, on the other hand, are affected not only by risk flight, but also technical speculation, as well as industrial demand, in the case of Silver.

The difference between these latter two is particularly interesting for traders. Whereas Gold has a large market of buyers and sellers, the Silver market is relatively thin, leading to higher volatility in silver trading.

Gold’s rising price was fueled by a large market of technical buyers who have been purchasing on dips following the break past $1340 per troy ounce. Silver, however, has breached its 30-year high price level, meaning there is little technical data a trader can base his/her trades on from reviewing the charts.

The lack of historical resistance lines above where Silver currently trades, as well as the thin market of Silver traders, means Silver prices possesses an above-average tendency to become overextended. Silver is also tied with electrical component industries as well as solar panel producers, which have seen rising profits over the past few years on recent hi-tech surges and energy diversification, respectively.

Gold prices are approaching the strong historical resistance level of $1420 an ounce, but Silver has no such historical line in sight. Analysts are using this information to anticipate a bullish run in Silver prices over the next week or two, whereas Gold may find resistance relatively soon and dip back down towards the $1340 price level.

By Cedric Welsch

For the person who is just trying to study how the stock market works, the business of trading stocks may seem quite difficult at the start. In fact, the entire stock exchange business may prove to be quite hard to understand for somebody who doesn’t even have a single clue yet what stocks are really all about – let alone the very idea of how the trading of these stocks is being done as a process. However, because of its growing popularity, you will never run out of available resources to turn to, in order to get well familiarized with its entirety as a profit generating investment medium.

When you begin your study and research around the subject of stock trading, it won’t be surprising if you immediately stumble upon various strategies that can get you profits really quick. The most basic principle of creating profits through trading is by being able to purchase stocks at a low price and then selling them for a much higher price. Now how basic can that ever get, in order for you to understand the principle of making profits through trading?

If you are ever to make profits out of your trading efforts, there is one task that you really need to be good at, and it’s the task of finding out which specific stocks you will want to focus your attention and energy onto. Another very important thing you should also be keen at doing is the task of knowing when exactly is the appropriate time to begin trading already. Just becoming really good with these two basic requirements will immediately give you the advantage you need in order to really make some profits.

However, as simple as it may sound, there is a lot more to those basic trading requirements than you could ever comprehend in just one sitting. In fact, just the task of finding the right stocks to invest upon can begin to become a little bit complicated once you begin to dissect it. You need to know what kinds of stocks are best qualified to be considered for trading. So, to determine those stocks, you need to learn a little bit of history and background on each one of your targets.

If finding the right kind of stock will already be a challenge for you, then wait till you get to the task of determining the most appropriate time to begin your trading activities. If you do a little bit of reading about this subject, some will suggest that the start of the week is the best schedule for trading. Another suggestion you might also read is the strategy of holding your stocks until you come to a certain point of timing where profits can be most prevalent for that specific stock. But then again, there are also requirements that you need to further learn to master just that single holding technique.

While you will be presented with several ideas, suggestions and opinions in your research and study about the stock exchange market, always keep in mind the basic principles of trading and you will be just fine.

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