InvestMacro FX

March 14 (Bloomberg) — Wolfgang Munchau, co-founder of the Eurointelligence website, talks about the European Union’s decision to broaden the size and scope of its 440 billion-euro ($614 billion) bailout fund and ease the terms of Greek rescue loans. He speaks with Francine Lacqua on Bloomberg Television’s “On The Move.”

March 14 (Bloomberg) — Simon Wong, an economist at Standard Chartered Plc, discusses the the Bank of Japan injecting a record amount of cash into the financial system to shield the economy from the effects of the nation’s strongest earthquake on record. Wong, speaking with Deirdre Bolton on Bloomberg Television’s “InsideTrack,” also talks about the outlook for Japan’s economy. (Source: Bloomberg)

By GCI Forex Research

USDJPY Movement

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, USD weakened 1.33% against the JPY on Friday and closed at 81.88.

In the US, New York Fed President William Dudley, indicated that the US economy has improved considerably in the past six months and rising oil prices are unlikely to derail its recovery.

The BOJ stated that it will inject ¥12 trillion ($146 billion) into the financial system to bolster market confidence after the earthquake. Today morning in Japan, industrial production declined by 1.3% in January from 3.3% in December. Additionally, capacity utilization rose by 3.6% in January from 3.0% in December.

In the Asian session at 4:00GMT, the pair is trading higher from the New York close, by 0.23%, at 82.07.

The first short term resistance is at 83.13, followed by 84.18. The pair is expected to find support at 81.19 and the subsequent support level at 80.30.

The currency pair is trading between its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Forex Daily Market Commentary provided by GCI Financial Ltd.

GCI Financial Ltd (”GCI”) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (”Forex”) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (”CFDs”) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.

DISCLAIMER: GCI’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

By GCI Forex Research

FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK at 0800 GMT (EDT +0400)

USD

USDJPY fell sharply to a low of 80.60 during the Asia session but soon reversed course after the BoJ announced Y12 trn worth of same-day liquidity operations. There was no FX reaction to the BoJ’s later decision to raise the ceiling on its asset purchase facility to Y10 trn from Y5 trn previously. EURUSD traded 1.3917-1.3985, USDJPY 80.60-82.45. The Nikkei-225 came under immediate selling pressure from the open, and is down -6.18% at the time of writing. Despite events in Japan, the S&P500 still managed to rise +0.71% on Friday, and the VIX closed lower on the day, finishing just above 20.
US data was mixed. February retail sales expanded by +1.0%, in line with consensus estimates. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index unexpectedly fell 9.3 points to 68.2 in early March. Interestingly, our US economics team observe that a sharp rise in inflation expectations drove much of the decline: long-term inflation expectations jumped to 3.2% from 2.9%, and short-term inflation expectations rose substantially to 4.6% from 3.4%. Although this is only a single month’s data, the uptick in expectations may embolden some of the more hawkish FOMC members to speak against another round of asset purchases.

EUR

Eurozone leaders made a number of euro-positive announcements over the weekend. Leaders pledged to increase the effective lending capacity of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) to ?440 bn, and agreed to lower the interest rate charged on Greece’s financial rescue package by 1%. The maturity of loans to Greece was also extended to 7.5 years. These outcomes had been expected to emerge from the upcoming EU Leaders summit on March 24-25, but have now come sooner than many investors anticipated.
Most significantly, in a surprising turn of events, EU leaders agreed to authorise the EFSF to buy sovereign bonds in the primary market. This in particular is likely to prove to be a significant euro positive on Monday. Germany’s Chancellor Merkel said “I hope that this will also be a good message to the world in terms of the euro as a major currency.”

JPY

News headlines continue to describe the aftermath of Japan’s tragic earthquake and tsunami. Amid the rescue operation, efforts are also continuing to deal with malfunctioning nuclear power plants. Prime Minister Kan declared that this is the greatest national crisis since 1945.
The BoJ made no change to the policy rate which remains in a range between 0 and 0.1%. The maximum size of the asset purchase facility was doubled to JPY10 trn.
S&P said the earthquake has no immediate impact on Japan’s sovereign rating. Moody’s said it is “very unlikely” that the earthquake would affect Japan’s rating.
Both Kan and Economy Minister Yosano said the government would fight decisively against speculative moves. Yosano, quoting Finance Minister Noda, said that FX and interest rate movements would be closely watched. Yosano added that the economic impact of the disaster is likely to come to more than JPY20 trn. On Friday, Finance Minister Noda said the government’s fiscal position should not be an obstacle to responding to the crisis, and both he and Kan have called for a supplementary budget. Yosano said the government would cooperate more than usual with the BoJ and he predicted that the BoJ would take both traditional and non-traditional monetary policy steps as needed.

CAD

USDCAD climbed about 15 pips after the February employment count rose by fewer than expected. Only +15.1K new jobs were added against consensus expectations of +25.0K. The unemployment rate also steadied at 7.8% despite market expectations that it would fall to 7.7%.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
USDJPY 80.62 support.
EURUSD BULLISH Opens gap up; the pair targets 1.4000/36 resistance area ahead of 1.4086. Near-term support lies at 1.3752.
USDJPY BEARISH Sell-off during the day found support at 80.62 ahead of 80.22 key low. Resistance lies at 83.30.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Violation of 1.5977/64 would trigger a negative tone and expose 1.5892 Fibonacci level next. Initial resistance is defined at 1.6213.
USDCHF BEARISH Focus is maintained on 0.9236/00 support zone, move below this would expose 0.8951. Initial resistance is at 0.9369 ahead of 0.9421.
AUDUSD NEUTRAL 1.0202 and 0.9944 mark the near-term directional triggers with key resistance defined at 1.0256.
USDCAD BEARISH Move below 0.9668 would expose 0.9600. Near-term resistance lies at 0.9803.
EURCHF BULLISH A push above 1.3040 would expose 1.3086, while initial support is at 1.2827.
EURGBP BULLISH Following the recovery through 0.8654/72 resistance area, the pair pressures 0.8691 ahead of 0.8777. Near-term support is at 0.8534.
EURJPY BULLISH As long as support at 111.96 holds, focus is on upside with initial resistance at 115.29 ahead of 116.00.

Forex Daily Market Commentary provided by GCI Financial Ltd.

GCI Financial Ltd (”GCI”) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (”Forex”) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (”CFDs”) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.

DISCLAIMER: GCI’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

By Russell Glaser

The Japanese yen came off its yearly high following a massive injection of 7 trillion yen into the Japanese financial system to help ease the burden on financial institutions and facilitate payment settlements. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) also suggested it may take further steps to loosen monetary policy in light of the stress on the financial system from the earthquake and tsunami.

The decision by the BOJ to assist the financial system comes after an earthquake and tsunami has caused the worst crisis the country has faced since WWII. Following the injection of cash by the BOJ, the USD/JPY came off of its low of 80.63 and rose to a high of 82.40. Highlighting the stress in the financial markets, the Nikkei 225 is currently down 6.2%.

Today’s market events:

JPY – Monetary Policy Statement – Tentative
The BOJ may take unorthodox measures to loosen monetary policy in light of the grave national crisis. Any new policy measures would be a negative for the yen. Support for the USD/JPY is found at 81.55, followed by 81.10, and this morning’s low of 80.60. Resistance is the overnight high of 82.40 and Friday’s high at 83.30.

EUR – Industrial Production m/m – 10:00 GMT
Expectations: 0.4%. Previous: 0.3%.
A positive reading will be a catalyst for the euro versus the dollar and help to strengthen the EUR/USD bullish trend. Traders should initially be targeting the overnight high at 1.3980 followed by this year’s high at 1.4035.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By Warren Seah

Through years, experts have come up and experiment many trading strategies so that they can find the suitable strategy to reap huge profits while trying to minimize losses. As a novice trader that begins to explore the world of trading, it is important to know how the basics of forex first and the risks involved. Subsequently prior to trading the markets, you need to have a way to tackle the market (a forex trading strategy) to get what you are looking for profits.

In order to do so, you have to start off with some development of basic strategies and rules that make them work. You have to first understand what kind of trader you are or your trader profile. This is heavily related to how you are going to define your forex trading strategy.

There are basically four main points to think about before you risk that money in the live markets.

1. Fundamental or Technical

Are you going to trade with just only fundamentals, technical or both? Developing your own set of trading rules defines your rationality during live conditions, failure to stick to your own rules result in failure as you’re trading through your own emotions by then.

2. Currency to trade

With the vast sea of different currency pairs, it is not wise to go after all the pairs thinking that you’ll be more profitable. It will just result in you being more disillusioned and loss of focus in trading. Develop your acumen on 1 to 2 currency pairs and learn about their behaviour. You will be better at identifying opportunities quicker and capitalising on them.

3. Time frame

There are a number of time frame to choose from and there are only 1 or 2 time frame you will find yourself comfortable trading on. Developing a strategy for a 1 hour chart may have a weakened effect on a 15 min chart and determine on how long you are willing to hold on to your positions.

For example a trader with his day time job may prefer to a long term trading strategy holding onto long term positions as he is unable to monitor the trade all the time. While short term traders will just hold on to their positions for a few minutes to hours as they might not want to expose their positions to too much risk overnight or over the weekend.

4. Write a Trading Plan in Hard Copy

For every trade that you made, it is always wise to have your trading plan drawn up with your defined forex trading strategy and rules in place. That way you won’t get caught off guard nor put yourself into difficult situations where you realize that the current trade you’ve executed is not your style of trading.

About the Author

Warren Seah

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GBP-CHF

The pair stands around the supporting area from December 2008 at – 1.5120 (the brown line) that broke in 2010 and ever since crosses the area back and forth.

The daily graph is situated on the secondary support level at 1.4855 (the red line) which is at 61.8, and which fixes all the last uptrend.

If this level will break there is a need to think about only other short targets between 1.4650-1.4600, the changes resulting from the daily time frame.

As can be seen by the graph bellow:

NZD-USD

On the daily graph the pair is located on the area of point D of the pattern ABCD. In the case in which the pattern will fail and the supporting level will not will not last, the breakdown of 0.7320 will lead us to the next supporting level in the area of 0.7200 (red area).

As long as, the supporting level resists, it is expected to repair itself and go back to 38.2 Fibonacci at the price of 0.7515.

As can be seen by the graph bellow:

Potential Trade

Long on the 4 hour time frame above 0.7455

Stop at- 0.7400

Target at- 0.7515

As can be seen by the graph bellow:

RISK DISCLAIMER

Forex trading involves high risk. Before any trade, you should consider carefully the investment objectives and the level of risk. The data sent by mail is not necessarily real-time data or precise. Real-Forex is not liable for the losses resulting from the utilization of the data. Real-Forex (Finnocorp Trading Solution Ltd

.) is not liable for losses or damages as a result of reliance on the information provided by e-mail or on the overall data, quotes, charts, signals buy / sell. It is hereby clarified that the investor must be aware of risks involved in trading in financial markets, which is a form of investment that may contain potential risks.

Real-Forex team

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By James Woolley

I have been investing in stocks for several years now, and first started as soon as I had a few thousand put aside in my early 20s. Unfortunately I lost virtually all of this money in the next couple of years, but I’m glad I did because it taught me some valuable lessons and helped me to evolve as an investor.

Right at the beginning I had a very modest income coming in, so I saw stock market investing as a way of making some serious money. Therefore I automatically excluded all of the mid and large-cap stocks and looked for the next big thing amongst the tiddlers.

I figured that it was simply not worth looking for gains of say 10-15% every year, because with the amounts of money I was investing it would hardly be worth it. Instead I wanted to find stocks that could multi-bag over the next couple of years.

Lots of investors do this and some may be lucky enough to find one that really takes off. However the failure rate amongst these smaller companies is so high, and it is exceptionally difficult to find winning stocks. I unfortunately managed to lose lots of money investing in a few high risk technology companies who joined this long list of failures.

This didn’t necessarily put me off, however, because as soon as I had saved up some money, I was back again. This time I put it all into a really small property company. However three years later it had still not gone anywhere so I sold it for a small loss.

Eventually I had built up a nice amount of money elsewhere and decided I was only going to invest in mid and large cap stocks, and ideally those that pay dividends. This was a big turning point for me because I was suddenly making consistent profits.

I started scrutinising financial accounts and thinking about solid long term investments, and now look for companies with sustained earnings and dividend growth. I have a few different strategies, both long term and short term, but the point is that I will not go near any companies that are the slightest bit risky.

I found that you can make excellent profits each year just by investing in boring long term growth stocks. Plus if you use technical analysis, you can also make some excellent profits taking short term positions in these stocks as well.

So the point is that I knew I had to evolve as an investor if I was serious about making money from the stock market. My old strategies were just not good enough, and were far too risky. So if you find that you could be doing a lot better yourself, I suggest you analyze your trading history and see where you are going wrong. You may find that one simple change could make a big difference to your overall results.

About the Author

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By James McKee

As the United States experiences worsening relations with the Middle East China is nurturing their influence and trust with the desert nations. In the Gulf there sits a Chinese strip mall that attracts shoppers from hundreds of miles in every direction. Selling a vast variety of goods at very low prices the Chinese are making a huge impression on the Arab people. China’s Dragon Mart goes a long way in assuring the Arab people that China is invested in their economy and their society at large. This goes a long way in cementing some very needed influence for China who is fast approaching the world’s position as its next superpower.

When this occurs will surely find close ties with the Middle East to be quite advantageous to China’s position globally should they in fact seize power. A steady oil supply is key to the success of any Western or ruling nation where the world at large is concerned. China is working very hard to preserve its place in the Arab world as a trusted ally and business partner. One has to wonder what China’s place will be in the Middle East once the regime changes have run their course in Egypt and Libya.

The prices seen at the Dragon Mart are far less expensive than those seen for Chinese products in Western countries. Western currencies including the USD will be at odds if China solidifies ties with the Arab world to the point of achieving favoritism. At this point China would receive cheaper oil and as a result their country’s operations would be more affordable and able to directly compete with the likes of the United States. The Forex market could see very real changes in the value of all major currencies if China does in fact begin receiving discounts on its fuel from the Middle East; China is quick becoming Japan’s chief importer which will bolster the Japanese Yen (JPY) once China’s demand increases further.

About the Author

Author is a Forex trader and financial analyst residing in Denver, Colorado. To stay up to date on all the latest developments in the financial world and beyond be sure to check out the forex exchange rates regularly.

By James McKee

In a move that comes off as desperate to say the least Ireland is taking measures to gain support in the EU for a lessening of austerity measures imposed upon them. The EU’s 86 billion Euro bailout of the Ireland was necessary to preserve the overall stability of the region however the strings attached are upsetting many in Ireland. The country has already promised to slash its budgets in deep, sweeping moves that many in Ireland disagree with in order to satisfy conservative countries like Germany. There have already been protests and other gatherings where Irish citizens have spoken out about the proposed budget cuts promising more if the measures passed.

Irish banks have not been being operated in such a way that would foster economic stability according to both European and American analysts. The fate of Europe and Ireland are intertwined however despite this there is growing discontent in both Ireland and Europe for the arrangement brokered. Neither side is happy and Ireland is seeking to change the arrangement by proving to Europe that they are serious about economic viability. Only time will tell whether or not Ireland’s efforts to find some middle ground are successful.

Ireland was in such a bad position financially that they would have accepted nearly any offer presented to them by the EU for a bailout. Now that the requirements of that bailout are an everyday consequence Ireland’s citizens and leaders are fed up. The Euro will see serious loss on the Forex exchange against the USD and other major currencies if Ireland’s population becomes one that is malcontent. Ireland would not experience the full-blown riots seen in the Middle East, however labor strikes and other peaceful measures could prove to be very debilitating for the country. The EU is so interconnected that even the strife of a small country like Ireland could very easily have reverberating consequences for the entire continent.

About the Author

Author is a Forex trader and financial analyst residing in Denver, Colorado. To stay up to date on all the latest developments in the financial world and beyond be sure to check out the forex exchange rates regularly.