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US Inaction on Financial Crisis Generates Outlook Downgrade by S&P

Source: ForexYard

Standard and Poor’s ratings agency shifted their assessment of US long-term debt from stable to negative yesterday, citing indecisiveness and inaction on the part of US policymakers. The statement has been commented on as overdue considering the stalemate which has developed in Washington, D.C., over the past two years. Investment portfolios will likely experience an adjustment this week which market participants will want to be on guard against.

Economic News

USD – US Outlook Downgrade by S&P Creates Waves

In response to yesterday’s downgrade of US long-term debt by S&P’s ratings agency, the global stock market became frantic, undergoing a wild sell-off before calming down in later trading. The US dollar pared some of its recent gains against the euro and British pound, with the EUR reaching towards 1.4352 before easing back into its current price near 1.4230 at the start of Asian trading.

Standard and Poor’s ratings agency shifted their assessment of US long-term debt from stable to negative yesterday, citing indecisiveness and inaction on the part of US policymakers. The statement has been commented on as overdue considering the stalemate which has developed in Washington, D.C., over the past two years. Investment portfolios will likely experience an adjustment this week which market participants will want to be on guard against.

The greenback’s pairing against the euro was less affected by the ratings adjustment since the euro zone continues to struggle with its own debt concerns. Many reports on European financial struggles revolve around Spain and Portugal recently, yet Greece recently resurfaced as a growing problem that will need to address debt restructuring and general weakness. An anti-aid mentality spreading through Europe at the moment is also pushing many investors away from the euro zone and into safer assets.

Looking at today’s economic calendar will likely drive most traders to focus on European trading, considering the slew of reports getting published this morning. Yet traders would be unwise to disregard the Building Permits and Housing Starts figures out of the American economy at 13:30 GMT today since the housing market could provide early hints on US investment levels and consumer sentiment heading into a week stricken by S&P’s dire news.

EUR – Inflationary PMI Reports to Make or Break EUR Today

Served up concurrently with a penetrating ratings downgrade by S&P regarding its US debt outlook, the euro zone has been wracked by its own debt concerns which some were optimistically forecasting an end to last week. Greece’s debt has resurfaced as a nagging worry in the euro zone as a debt restructuring appears necessary for the ailing Hellenic economy. Spain and Portugal also loom on the horizon with their own debt and employment ills.

The euro/dollar suffered its largest one-day drop since November yesterday, and plummeted against all of its main currency rivals. These persistent debt woes balanced against the debt outlook downgrade in the United States and actually generated more bearish sentiment for the EUR than the long-overdue S&P report had for the USD. This has helped push the euro negative despite global events elsewhere.

This morning’s string of economic reports on France, Germany and the broader region regarding their respective manufacturing and services inflationary levels should help shore up much of the region’s recent market movement. Positive reports could help put the EUR back into last week’s bullish channel, whereas a continuation of negative data could assist in a trend reversal for the 17-nation common currency.

JPY – Yen Benefits from Investment Shift amid Global Debt Woes

The Japanese yen gained yesterday against almost all of its currency rivals as debt woes in the United States and Europe fostered an environment of heavy risk aversion, driving many investors into the safety of physical assets and low-yield currencies, like the yen. Despite Japanese reconstruction struggles, the island economy’s currency has gained substantially from shifts into and out of carry trades, as well as the sudden risk averse environment in the market these past several trading days.

With today’s economic calendar centered on European manufacturing and services inflation reports, most traders will be evaluating their portfolio stance in regards to euro zone debt and outlook. Over-exposure to European markets may be harmful in the short-run since risk aversion is making such investments appear unappealing to day traders. The yen may make solid gains this week as a result of this market mood.

Crude Oil – OPEC Commentary and Risk Aversion Support Oil above $110

The price of Crude Oil received support yesterday as the Secretary General for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) made remarks regarding the current supply of crude in the global market. The Secretary, Mr. Abdalla el-Badri, remarked that current supply levels are adequate and in line with OPEC forecasts and agreements.

Moreover, the Secretary cited how OPEC’s production output is the same now as it was in December 2010 since no changes were deemed necessary in the organization’s meetings over the past several months. The organization has only recently boosted shipments from alternative members to make up for the loss of Libya’s production output. Overall output remained steady.

Oil prices reached beyond $110 a barrel yesterday following these statements, and following the turmoil in the global stock markets brought on by S&P’s downgrade of its US long-term debt outlook. Market adjustments will likely drive many investors into physical assets over the next several days, helping to lift the price of commodities like oil and gold. Traders will want to keep an eye on such shifts in investment as risk aversion, ever present in today’s market, will likely continue to support oil prices above $110.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD has gone increasingly bearish yesterday, and currently stands at the 1.4230 level. The daily chart’s Slow Stochastic supports this currency cross to fall further today. However, the 4-hour chart’s RSI signals that a bullish reversal will take place today. Entering the pair when the signs are clearer seems to be the wise choice today.

GBP/USD

The pair has been range-trading for a while now, with no specific direction. The Daily chart’s Slow Stochastic providing us with mixed signals. All oscillators on the 4 hour chart do not provide a clear direction as well. Waiting for a clearer sign on the hourlies might be a good strategy today.

USD/JPY

The pair has recorded much bearish behavior in the past several days. However, the technical data indicates that this trend may reverse anytime soon. For example, the daily chart’s Stochastic Slow signals that a bullish reversal is imminent. An upward trend today is also supported by the 4-hour chart’s RSI. Going long with tight stops may turn out to pay off today.

USD/CHF

The 4-hour chart is showing mixed signals with its RSI fluctuating at the neutral territory. However, the daily Chart’s RSI is already floating in the oversold territory indicating that a bullish correction might take place in the nearest future. Going long with tight stops might be the right strategy today.

The Wild Card

Gold

Gold prices rose significantly in the last week and peaked at $1497 for an ounce. However, the daily chart’s RSI is floating in an overbought territory suggesting that a recent upwards trend is loosing steam and a bearish correction is impending. This might be a good opportunity for forex traders to enter the trend at a very early stage.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

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Silver Joins Gold To Superstardom

silver, XAGUSD, gold, XAUUSD, commodities market, commodities trading, commodity, metals, inverted head and shoulders continuation, ron acoba

Who says silver is cheap?! Silver or XAGUSD in the trading arena is in fact trading at its all-time high along the much coveted gold or XAUUSD. So don’t get left behind… catch the silver express when it takes a halt! 

Just recently, silver has managed to mark a new all-time high at just below $42.00 per ounce. While many people would think that it is already bound for a fall since given its tremendous run-up, technical signals of gold (yes gold!) suggest otherwise. What’s interesting in how the price of silver behave is that it has a very strong correlation with the price of gold. This means that, whenever the price of gold rises, silver generally goes up as well. In the same way, the price of silver dips in most times whenever gold falls also. This positive relation between silver and gold can be seen in the chart above.

Now, gold has just broken above an inverted head and shoulders continuation pattern. Given this, we can determine its potential upside by projecting the height of the pattern from the point of breakout at around $1,650.00. So given the positive correlation between the two and the likelihood that gold could hit $1,650.00, it’s therefore likely that silver would rise further and even mark a new all-time high. In the meantime, both silver and gold could retrace a bit given their overbought conditions. Hence, any retracement, in my view, would be a good opportunity to go long at a better price.

Caveat.

More on LaidTrades.com …

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New Zealand Dollar Analysis 18th April

NZDUSD double top?

 

 

The NZDUSD currency pair looks like it could be forming a near double top formation.

Price is close to closing as a bearish engulfing pattern and given the placement, at the previous swing high, we could be in for some downside.  The US dollar has seen gains across the board today and this would be a logical area for price to give some kind of retrace price action.

Anyone trading short from this area should be wary of the resistance turned support just below the daily low.  A subsequent daily close below this level would potentially encourage NZD bears to push price lower.  It is also worth noting that the NZD interest rate dropped recently and any further cuts could potentially drive this pair lower

EURUSD has closed around 180 pips lower on the day, showing dollar strength, and with the dollar index at a major support level anything is possible from here.

Nick can be found writing and trading at his forex blog

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Monday Mayhem – Panic Selling Has Set In!

By Chris Vermeulen, thegoldandoilguy.com

In overnight and pre-market trading the US Dollar posted a strong rally which in turn caused a sharp selloff in the equities market. The market is currently down 1.6 – 2.3% depending on the index traders are following.

Here is what I see on the charts going forward a few days.

Dollar Index – 4 Hour Chart
The Dollar is trading at a resistance level which has in the past triggered strong moves lower. If we get a move lower on the dollar from here then I expect a strong recovery in the equities market and likely higher commodity prices also. If the US Dollar breaks out and rallies above this point then we could see a much further collapse in stocks and commodities.

The falling dollar has also helped to boost crude oil prices the past couple months. One of my trading buddies J.W. Jones at OptionsTradingSignals.com pocketed a nice 86% gain on a USO cash secured put based on the credit sold. Also the weak dollar has his GLD options trade up over 50% already and it has just begun. Jones is an options expert and always seems to find a way to pull money out of the market month after month…

SPY Daily Chart
The daily chart shows a large gap down putting the market in a short term oversold condition. Typically we see the market bounce back up or gap higher the following day. In some cases similar to today the market actually bottoms. So those long the SP500 I feel have a good change of recouping some of today’s decline by waiting for the kneejerk reaction bounce in the next 24-48 hours.

Market Sentiment – Panic Selling At Extremes
Today we are seeing panic selling at levels not seen since the market bottom in March. The green indicator spikes on the chart show very high levels of traders/investors dumping stocks in fear of a collapse. Today’s negative headline news has sparked mass fear and when levels like this are reached you should think of holding long positions for another 1-2 session to see if we get that bounce or market bottom.

Monday Mass Selling Conclusion:
Today’s sharp drop in equities could be an excellent low risk opportunity to add or take a long position here because most of the downside fear for the short term has been eliminated today.

That being said the trend appears to be down on the SP500 now so at this time I am looking to sell into a rally if we get one today, tomorrow or Wednesday.

Get My Free Trading Rule Guide And My Weekly Newsletter Here: http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/trade-money-emotions.php

Chris Vermeulen

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Focusing on the U.S. Dollar: S&P 500, Oil, and Gold Reactions

By JW Jones, optionstradingsignals.com

No More!
The crap rolls out your mouth again
Haven’t changed, your brain is still gelatin
Little whispers circle around your head
Why don’t you worry about yourself instead!

Who are you? Where ya been? Where ya from?
Gossip burning on the tip of your tongue
You lie so much you believe yourself
Judge not l’est ye be judged yourself.

“Holier Than Thou” – Metallica

“The week that was” left many investors running for the exits on Monday and Tuesday as prices in the equity, energy, and precious metals markets plunged. The U.S. Dollar index futures tried to work their way out of a descending channel, but came up unsuccessful. The U.S. Dollar index rallied in several morning sessions, but usually was met with heavy selling later in the day which either muted gains or pushed the dollar index lower. The other notable development this week was some Fed drivel which solidified the Central Bank’s continued efforts to devalue the U.S. currency and hold short term interest rates hostage. In addition, it seems more likely with every press release from a Fed Governor that Quantitative Easing II will expire in June and Quantitative Easing III will not be pursued unless economic conditions worsen.

Recent statements from the Federal Reserve chairman and several of his minions believe that we are not experiencing real inflation in the economy. Apparently the Fed does not believe that most Americans need food to eat or gasoline to drive to their jobs, assuming they have one since around 16% of the adult population capable of working is either unemployed, underemployed, or taking part time work. Apparently, they seem to believe, the increase in food commodity prices are only going to last for the short term and have little consequence according to the Fed. We have also been told that energy prices are just a blip and that it is nothing more than a short term market perturbation. Gold and silver prices continue to break out to new highs, but still we have no inflation.

Long-term readers known that I generally do not get involved in macroeconomic discussions about inflation, deflation, stagflation, or any other type of “flation” because I am not an expert in those areas. What I do know is that food prices are rising in most countries and energy prices are volatile and seem likely to continue to probe higher, even if Goldman Sachs analysts disagree. Yes, Goldman Sachs can be wrong and there is a relatively strong precedent for them to enter into rather onerous financial transactions.

Speaking of Goldman Sachs, does it seem odd that Goldman Sachs comes out and says oil prices are going to continue lower and a large selloff takes place? Then in a strange turn of affairs, the very next day Bank of America energy analysts say that oil prices could go to $160/barrel. I wonder if any Goldman Sachs energy traders used the statements to scoop up oil at a cheap price? Is that a conflict of interest?

At the very least, the timing was interesting and the Bank of America comments are also intriguing, not to mention the fact that oil prices have bounced back since Goldman’s entrance into the void of market predictions. I wonder if this latest prediction is as accurate as their prediction that oil prices were going to $200/barrel in 2008? Finally, is Goldman Sachs playing the Federal Reserve’s song loud and clear for everyone to hear? All of these questions will go unanswered most likely, but at the very least they are thought provoking.

Where do I think oil is headed? A one word answer – higher. Obviously I could be wrong, but my stance on oil is not just about tension in the Middle East or increasing demand from emerging markets. In fact, I believe that oil will continue to work higher because we are in the later stages of this bull market cycle and most cycles end with commodity prices pushing higher and energy related stocks putting up solid gains. We are in that period now, and while it could last for several months or even a year potentially, I believe that we have further room to run. More than anything else, I firmly believe that the U.S. Dollar Index is the most critical chart to watch in coming days and weeks. The daily chart is shown below:

If the dollar breaks down which aligns with my expectations, I would expect it to test the lows reached back in November of 2009. If we see prices test the November lows in coming days/weeks, I expect oil, precious metals, and equity prices to continue to work higher. However, we could see a huge breakout in all three asset classes if the U.S. Dollar Index tests the November lows and they do not hold. If a breakdown transpires, we could see a huge rally in gold and oil. It can be assumed that equity prices would rally, but it would depend on how orderly the U.S. Dollar sold off. A quick glance at the key levels in oil futures can be seen below:

As far as the future in equities prices, we continue to have an inverse head and shoulders pattern on the SPX daily chart. If the pattern plays out it would presage a rally that could extend as high as 1,450 on the SPX. However, a breakdown below the key 1,300 area presents a possible retest of the 1,250 lows. Right now I’m leaning to the bullish side on the back of a sliding dollar and my expectations that earnings may not be as bad as expected. Until we get a breakout higher or a breakdown lower, I continue to believe the S&P 500 is pinned in a range between 1,300 – 1,340. The daily chart below illustrates the inverse head and shoulders pattern as well as the key channel high and low:

Finally, gold futures sold off early in the week but have since rallied back and have taken out previous highs. Silver futures also broke out to new highs after experiencing selling pressure early in the week. After the Federal Reserve made it rather clear that they were not going to tighten interest rates in the short run, precious metals and oil futures have rallied. While the two may not go hand in hand, it is a rather interesting coincidence, particularly when various financial institutions have different opinions about the future price of oil referenced above. If the U.S. Dollar index falters, I expect gold and silver to continue higher. The daily chart of gold is shown below:

In closing, I am going to be focused on the U.S. Dollar Index futures next week looking for clues as to whether we are going to see a breakout, a breakdown, or whether we will remain in a range bound market. At this point anything could happen, but unlike the Federal Reserve I’m leaning into the idea that inflation is here, and unfortunately it might have just arrived. If the Federal Reserve becomes too accommodative and waits too long to raise interest rates to slow down inflation, then the Federal Reserve might have not only let Mr. Inflation in the door, but they likely just asked him to stay for dinner.

Get My Free Trade Setups: http://www.optionstradingsignals.com/profitable-options-solutions.php
JW Jones

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My Forex & Stocks Update: Still favoring long Stocks and Commodities

By Chris Vermeulen, thegoldandoilguy.com

So far in 2011 the equities market has made some sizable whip saw type moves that even veteran traders have had difficulty being on the right side of the price action. The year started out with equities being very overbought and extended making is virtually impossible for a low risk trader to buy on pullbacks. This was primarily due to the fact that there were no real pullbacks other than for a day or two which was immediately followed by prices continuing to grind higher.

In March, we finally had the pullback everyone was waiting for which we caught 4% of the sell off using an inverse ETF. Then we saw the bottom a few days later and caught a 3% gain from near the lows during a rally higher. So as you can see there have been three trends in the SP500 so far this year and we are about to see another sizable move unfold in the coming week.

In the past 8 sessions we have seen the market pullback slightly and the big question everyone is asking is do we get long or do we short here? Below are my thoughts and analysis….

US Dollar Index – Daily Chart
The dollar is still in a very strong down trend. As long as it continues to fall we should see higher stock and commodity prices. I do feel as though there is more downside for the dollar but its nearing an end. Stepping back and looking at the longer term chart of the dollar is very clear that it is getting oversold and sizable bounce should take place. If we see the dollar breakout of this falling wedge and start to rally you will want to be short stocks and commodities.

SPY ETF (SP500 Index Fund) Daily Chart
When comparing the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Russell 2K indexes it is rather obvious that both have performed well this year and have broken above the February highs. The DOW was strong because it has it is exposed to energy stocks and with oil rocketing higher, it has helped those energy based stocks lift the index higher. The Russell 2K consists of small cap stocks and with the general public still being so bullish on the equity markets and investors are buying volatile, high risk small cap stocks to help boost their gains.
Now, looking at the SP500 it has yet to break the February high and this is because it holds several large tech stocks and financial stocks which have been lagging the overall market so far this year. Tech stocks and financials tend to lead the market and the fact that they are not is of great concern to me.
So going back to the US Dollar, I feel as though it has a little more downward motion left which will help get the SP500 to a new yearly high. Once the dollar rally starts, it will crush stock and commodity prices for several months.

 

Weekend Trend Conclusion:
In short, I favor the long side for both stocks and commodities, but that can change on a dime once the dollar starts to rally. There are many negative factors coming together that give me a negative outlook on stocks and commodities for the next 2-4 months and they are:

1. Quantitative Easing is now done = rising dollar
2. Investor sentiment is at an extreme bullish level = typically a bearish sign for stocks
3. The Sell In May and Go Away is almost here…
4. Earning season is here and that is typically a time when stocks get sold into = lower stock prices

My final thought is to keep positions small and be ready to flip positions from long to short and vise versa depending on what you trade…

Get My Free Trading Rule Guide And My Weekly Newsletter Here: http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/trade-money-emotions.php

Chris Vermeulen

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UK Growth Expected to Decline

The British economy continues to wrangle with very weak growth even as consumers are being hammered by surging prices. The result is an inflation rate double the target “ideal” of two percent annual inflation. And while the last few years have not been a walk in the park, there appears little prospect for immediate relief.

In a speech delivered in mid December, Charles Bean, Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy and member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), noted that the economy is showing signs of improvement, but cautioned that “it may be some while yet before normality is restored”.

That assessment was made four months ago and one would be hard-pressed to see any progress since then. Indeed, for the first quarter of the year, the situation may have actually worsened.

For four straight quarters in 2010, Gross Domestic Product made positive gains yet for the first quarter of this year, GDP actually fell by 0.5 percent. Despite this, the government still expects growth for the full year to be in the range of 1.7 percent – this may prove to be a bit optimistic.

Last week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reduced its outlook for the UK from 2 percent growth to 1.7 percent. The Organization for Economic and Development (OECD) cut its position even deeper dropping its earlier 1.7 percent prediction to just 1.5 percent. This makes it unanimous – the 2011 perspective for the British economy is actually bleaker now than at the beginning of the year.

Adding to the quandary is that consumer prices are rising at a much faster rate than overall growth. According to Britain’s Office for National Statistics, consumer prices rose another four percent in March following a 4.4 percent increase in February. The resulting inflation is rapidly outpacing gains in salaries and wages and is seriously undermining consumer buying power.

Consumer Price Index – Annualized Rate

Nov 2010 – 3.2%

Dec 2010 – 3.3%

Jan 2011 – 4.0%

Feb 2011 – 4.4%

Mar 2011 – 4.0%

Will Get Worse Before It Gets Better

Like several other developed economies, England faces a huge deficit made worse by the recession’s double whammy of reduced tax revenues and greater expenses arising from monetary stimulus to support the economy. Truth be told however, Britain has struggled with deficits for many years now and the situation has finally reached the point where it can no longer be ignored. Even with higher revenues expected this year, the budget shortfall for the current year is estimated at £140 billion (US$228.5 billion).

In its last budget, the government outlined plans to introduce significant spending cuts to the tune of  £83 billion (US$133.5 billion) over the next four years. This is thought to be sufficient to balance the budget assuming higher government revenue as the economy recovers. This also assumes that the spending cuts will not impact those revenues and this is where things tend to get a bit sticky.

For the past six months, Bank of England Governor Mervyn King has argued against hiking interest rates to deal with the mounting inflation. King defends his position by blaming rising food and energy costs for a “temporary” spike in consumer prices suggesting that “core” inflation is actually quite low. King also suggests that as the impact of government’s spending cuts take effect, overall growth could decline even further.

 

Scott Boyd is a currency analyst with OANDA and comments on the MarketPulse FX blog site.

 

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FOREX: Large Currency Speculators add to Japanese Yen shorts. Euro, NZD positions rise

By CountingPips.com

The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), showed that large futures speculators trimmed their short positions of the US dollar against the other major currencies while continuing to raise bets against the Japanese yen. Non-commercial futures positions, those taken by hedge funds and large speculators, were overall net short the US dollar by $25.11 billion against other major currencies as of April 12th. The data is a decline from the total short position of $25.18 billion on April 5th, according to the CFTC data and calculations by Reuters which calculates the dollar positions against the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

This week’s notable changes were Japanese yen positions declining for a third straight week to the lowest level in almost a year while euro positions rose for a fourth straight week and to their highest level in over a year.

EuroFx: Currency speculators increased their net long positions for the euro against the U.S. dollar for a fourth consecutive week. Futures positions in the euro rose to a net total of 64,985 long positions as of April 12th following a total of 59,857 long positions on April 5th.

EUR, COT

The COT report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions as of the previous Tuesday. It can be a useful tool for traders to gauge investor sentiment and to look for potential changes in the direction of a currency or commodity. Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, where as a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar. The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.

GBP: British pound sterling bets dipped as of April 12th to a total of 26,671 net long positions after rising the week before to a total of 32,414 long contracts on April 5th.


JPY: The Japanese yen net contracts declined for a third straight week. Yen contracts decreased to a total of 52,877 short contracts following a total of 43,231 net short contracts reported on April 5th. This is the lowest level for yen contracts since May 4,2010 when short contracts totaled 65,612.


CHF: Swiss franc long positions moved higher after decreases lower for three straight weeks. Franc positions increased to a total of 14,657 net long contracts following a net of 10,843 long contracts on April 5th.


CAD: The Canadian dollar positions edged lower to a total  of 63,741 contracts as of April 12th after CAD net contracts had risen to a total of 65,030 net long contracts on April 5th.


AUD: The Australian dollar long positions were just about unchanged last week near the highest level in over a year. AUD contracts totaled a net amount of 90,651 long contracts as of April 12th after AUD positions had totaled 90,938 net long contracts on April 5th.


NZD: New Zealand dollar futures positions increased higher for a fourth consecutive week. NZD contracts increased to a total of 6,336 long positions as of April 12th from a total of 2,695 long contracts on April 5th.


MXN: Mexican peso long contracts rebounded to a new high for the year at a total of 124,846 net long contracts on April 12th. MXN positions had increased the week before to a total of 119,062 long contracts as of April 5th.

COT Data Summary as of April 12, 2011
Large Speculators Net Positions vs. the US Dollar

EUR: +64,985
GBP: +26,671
JPY: -52,877
CHF: +14,657
CAD: +63,741
AUD: +90,651
NZD: +6,336
MXN: +124,846

Further COT Resources from around the web: