Forex CT 19-5-11

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AUD/USD – May 19, 2011: Testing the 1.0665 Level, Alert Corrections

Yesterday: Open 1.0624 High 1.0665 Low 1.0570 Close 1.0632

Aussie currency yesterday that a sharp correction occurred up to 90 pips from its highest level at 1.0665 daily.
After reaching its lowest level daily at 1.0570, the movement of the Aussie currency rebounded by 60 pips to the daily closing level of 1.0632.

When this movement is still strong Aussie looks bullish but needs to watch out Kareena stochastic indicator conditions that are in overbought area.

The focus of economic data today for the Aussie currency is:
1. AUD MI Inflation Expectations at 8:00 pm

20110519_aud

If the price increase that continues then the opportunity to 1.0716 and 1.0665 resistance level.

We recommend that if a decline continues then the price can reach the support level of 1.0570.

Prices shown on the graph H1 line MA05 and MA10 are still in strong bullish condition.

While the Stochastic indicator indicating the bearish conditions, vigilant correction occurs.

 

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USD/CHF – May 19, 2011: Testing Level 0.8760

Yesterday: Open 0.8803 High 0.8845 Low 0.8784 Close 0.8810

Since trading began yesterday’s Asian session, the currency tends to move sideways Frank but by early European session, Frank currency movements had a bullish to penetrate the diagonal line and the correction of up to 50 pips daily reached its lowest level at 0.8784.

Currently Frank bullish currency movements tend to be sideways.

The focus of today’s economy for the USD/CHF is the CHF ZEW Economic Expectations in at 16:00 pm.

When you have opened up opportunities to increase the resistance level 0.8877 and 0.8947.

20110519_chf

We recommend that if the decline continues, opening opportunities to the support level at 0.8760 and 0.8708.

Prices shown on the graph H1 line MA05 and MA10 bearish conditions is limited.

While the Stochastic indicator indicating a bearish condition.

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GBP/USD – May 19, 2011: Testing The 1.6256 Level

Yesterday: Open 1.6248 High 1.6291 Low 1.6106 Close 1.6170

Yesterday double top pattern is formed after the break line penetrated, Sterling movements reached up to the first support level at 1.6163 and almost touching the second support level at 1.6100. Sterling onwards rebound back towards the first support level at 1.6163 and the daily closing level of 1.6170.

At present, looks to continue Sterling rebounds.

The focus of economic data today for Sterling are:
1. GBP MPC Member Tucker Speaks on at 15:00 pm
2. GBP Retail Sales m / m in at 15:30 pm
3. GBP CBI Industrial Order Expectations at 17:00 GMT
4. GBP MPC Member Bean Speaks at 18:20 pm

20110519_gbp

When prices rise continuously after passing through a diagonal trend line then opened up opportunities to a level of 1.6256 and 1.6312.

We recommend that if the decline continues, opening opportunities to the 1.6106 level.

Prices shown on the graph H1 line MA05 and MA10 in conditions intersect.

While the Stochastic Indicator is indicating a bearish opportunity.

 

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USD/JPY – May 19, 2011: Testing Level 81.95

Yesterday: Open 81.42 High 81.76 Low 80.94 81.67 Close

Since the Asian trading session begins, the movement of the Yen yesterday already looks bearish and peaked at the lowest level at 80.94 daily. Furthermore, the yen rebounded quite sharply about 80 pips from the lowest level daily. Overall daily high low range Yen about 80 pips.

Currently Yen will continue its bullish still looks back to the graph H1.

The focus of today’s economic data for USD / JPY is:
1. JPY Prelim GDP q/q in at 6:50 pm
2. JPY Prelim GDP Price Index y/y at 06:50 pm
3. JPY Revised Industrial Production m/m in at 11:30 pm

20110519_jpy

 

If the rise continues, prices likely headed to the resistance level is 81.95 and 82.22.

We recommend that if berkelanjut decreased and the trend line through the diagonal, then the price opened up opportunities leading to the level of support 80.68 and 81.06.

Prices shown on the graph H1 line MA05 and MA10 in conditions of strong bullish.

While the Stochastic indicator indicating a bearish opportunity.

 

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EUR/USD – May 19, 2011: Testing to 1.4341, Beware Correction

Yesterday: Open 1.4235 High 1.4288 Low 1.4194 Close 1.4250

Since trading began yesterday’s Asian session, the euro had touched its highest level at 1.4288 daily. But since then, the movement of the Euro bearish trend toward the diagonal line but failed to pass.

Today, look euro currency is bullish.

There is no focus on economic data today for EUR / USD.

20110519_eur

If the price increases continue to open opportunities to the 1.4341 resistance level.

Conversely if the decline continues and the trend line through the diagonal, then the price opened up opportunities leading to the 1.4194 level.

Prices shown on the graph H1 line MA05 and MA10 strong bullish conditions.

While the Stochastic indicator indicates there is still bullish.

 

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Strauss-Kahn Affair Looms over European Finance Meeting

Source: ForexYard

Looming over the current ECOFIN meetings in Brussels, Belgium, is the arrest of Dominique Strauss-Kahn (also referred to by the media as DSK) regarding an alleged attack on a hotel maid while on a trip in New York City. Strauss-Kahn is currently serving as the Managing Director of the IMF and is a member of the Socialist Party of France. Many forex traders had assumed the current finance meetings would provide perspective into the region’s debt woes, but this media distraction has many large investors looking for safety instead of higher yields, creating a range-trading behavior for the EUR.

Economic News

USD – US Dollar Mixed as Traders Eye Manufacturing and Housing Data

The US dollar was trading with mixed results yesterday after traders began to hedge on their euro positions given the recent economic news vacuum in the euro zone. The Strauss-Kahn affair has overshadowed much of the positive comments coming out of the ECOFIN meetings and for that reason traders have tried to balance between European debt woes and interest rate differentials. This dynamic has generated a range-trading pattern for several major currencies, including the dollar.

Economic figures out of the United States have also been partially behind this flatter movement. Monday’s TIC long-term purchases figure was well below expectations, as were Tuesday’s housing figures. But yesterday’s flattening out in US oil stockpiles may have given a short bump to the greenback as traders assumed higher consumption by industry ahead of today’s manufacturing figure out of Philadelphia. The Fed’s recent policy minutes also signaled healthier growth and relatively hawkish statements about interest rates.

As for today, the euro zone remains absent during the week-long ECOFIN meeting, but the US is scheduled for a heavy news day. To kick things off, the US Department of Labor will publish its weekly unemployment claims figure at 13:30 GMT which may show fewer applications for unemployment benefits than were seen last week.

Shortly thereafter will be the publication of important housing figures followed by the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Mortgage Banker Association’s report on mortgage delinquencies. All in all, the USD should see some heavy volatility today, but if traders continue to hedge while awaiting more news out of Europe, the dollar may continue to see mixed results.

EUR – EUR Range-Trading as Investors Await Economic News

The euro rose has been trading flat this week as economic news, mixed with some political drama, has had investors balancing between debt concerns and interest rate differentials. Soft data out of the American economy this week has held many traders leery of seeking safety in the greenback, whereas the current absence of news out of Europe has many others skeptical of healthy movements towards handling the current debt crisis. The result has been this week’s odd range-trading pattern for EUR pairs.

Looming over the current ECOFIN meetings in Brussels, Belgium, is the arrest of Dominique Strauss-Kahn (also referred to by the media as DSK) regarding an alleged attack on a hotel maid while on a trip in New York City. Strauss-Kahn is the Managing Director of the IMF and a member of the Socialist Party of France. Many forex traders had assumed the current meetings would provide perspective into the region’s debt woes, but this distraction has many large investors looking for safety instead of higher yields, creating a range-trading behavior for the EUR.

As for today, the euro zone will be absent from the calendar again as the ECOFIN meetings continue. Hawkish statements could hint towards a tightening monetary policy in the near future, but traders should be wary of a return to risk aversion should the meeting produce less-than-stellar commentary. Major housing and manufacturing news out of the United States today may help provide some needed commentary on this week’s soft US data, but any continuation of such weakness may further keep the greenback in a holding pattern.

JPY – JPY Moves Bearish after GDP Shrinks 0.9%

The Japanese yen (JPY) began trading in a bearish direction against most of its currency rivals yesterday after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) released data which showed the Japanese economy contracting by 0.9% so far this quarter. After a week of ups and downs, the Japanese yen now appears to be in a weaker position and is taking a beating by traders in today’s early hours. The dominant stance of risk aversion overarching this week and last had many traders moving towards the yen until yesterday. The dominant stance now appears to be a flight to other safe-havens like the Swiss franc and, in many instances, the Scandinavian kroner.

As of this morning, the USD/JPY has moved up over 50 pips from 80.00 to 80.53. Japan’s tertiary activity was published yesterday morning and also revealed a severe downturn of approximately 6.0%. This morning’s GDP figure was another bearish marker on the currency and so far traders are moving away from their JPY investments as a result. As with the rest of this week, market news released out of the US today will likely be the driving force behind JPY values, though, and traders will definitely want to consider what effect today’s GDP data will have on the island economy.

Crude Oil – Crude Oil Prices Jump after US Stockpiles Show No Growth

Oil prices jumped above $100 a barrel this morning following a report out of the United States which revealed zero growth in their weekly stockpile data. These US oil stockpile reports had shown growth of over 3 million barrels a week for the past two consecutive weeks. The sudden halt of this inventory growth had a sharp effect on the value of Crude Oil as its price jumped above $100 a barrel shortly after the report was published.

Whether oil traders decide to respond with a bearish push on oil prices is yet to be determined, especially considering the strangeness of the inverse relationship to USD values this week. The greenback’s decline yesterday may have a delayed effect today and oil traders may see the price bouncing even higher if that is the case. The Strauss-Kahn affair in the US is also creating some instability in trading as it masks the commentary emerging from the current ECOFIN meetings. Commodity prices may therefore receive a bump in the rest of this week’s trading if this rumor mill doesn’t die out.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The Williams Percent Range on the 8-hour chart indicates that this pair has entered overbought territory, signaling a downward correction is likely to take place in the near future. This theory is supported by the Stochastic Slow on the same chart, which has formed a bearish cross. Traders may want to go short in their positions today.

GBP/USD

The Relative Strength Index on the daily chart has dropped into the oversold zone, which is typically a sign of an impending bullish correction. In addition, the Williams Percent Range on the same chart is currently below the -80 level, lending further support to the theory of future upward movement. Traders may want to go long for this pair today.

USD/JPY

The typical range trading on the hourly chart continues. The daily chart RSI is floating in neutral territory. However, there is a fresh bearish cross forming on the 4-hour chart’s Slow Stochastic indicating a bearish correction might take place in the nearest future. Going short might be a wise choice.

USD/CHF

The USD/CHF has gone increasingly bearish in the past few days, and currently stands at the 0.87670 level. The daily chart’s Slow Stochastic supports this currency cross to fall further today. However, the 8-hour chart’s Williams Percent Range signals that a bullish reversal will take place today. Entering the pair when the signs are clearer seems to be the wise choice today.

The Wild Card

EUR/GBP

This pair’s sustained upward movement has finally pushed its price into the over-bought territory on the 8-hour chart’s Williams Percent Range. Not only that, but there actually appears to be a bearish cross on the Slow Stochastic pointing to an imminent downward correction. Forex traders have the opportunity to wait for the downward breach on the hourlies and go short in order to ride out the impending wave.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

GBP Shores Up Daily Losses after Retail Sales

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The British pound (GBP) jumped back this afternoon following the morning’s publication of retail sales figures out of the United Kingdom. Expectations were for a rise of approximately 0.9% but the actual results came in slightly higher at 1.1%.

As a result of this report, traders jumped back into the pound in short-term trading, pushing the value of the GBP back to today’s opening price after a morning drop of 50 pips versus most of its primary currency pairs.

Helping this movement back into the GBP was a better-than-forecast industrial order expectations report. Published at 12:00 GMT, the industrial orders data showed a quickened increase in the industrial sector from the previous month’s faltering.

Today’s news highlighted a relatively strengthened British economy, though many remain skeptical of growth figures given their fragile nature these past several months. For the day ahead, prior to this week’s close, the British pound appears to be in a position to continue gaining. As of late-afternoon trading, the GBP/USD has pushed beyond its opening price by about 15 pips and does not appear to have much standing in its way.

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Japanese Q2 GDP Shows Contraction of 0.9%

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The Japanese yen (JPY) began trading in a bearish direction against most of its currency rivals yesterday after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) released data which showed the Japanese economy contracting by 0.9% so far this quarter.

After a week of ups and downs, the Japanese yen now appears to be in a weaker position and is taking a beating by traders in today’s early hours. Adding to this bearish sentiment is also the revised industrial production figure which was released this morning slightly lower than expectations.

The dominant stance of risk aversion overarching this week and last had many traders moving towards the yen until yesterday. The dominant stance now appears to be a flight to other safe-havens like the Swiss franc (CHF) and, in many instances, the Scandinavian kroner (i.e. SEK, NOK, DKK).

As of this morning, the USD/JPY has moved up over 80 pips from 80.00 to 80.88. Japan’s tertiary activity was published yesterday morning and also revealed a severe downturn of approximately 6.0%.

This morning’s GDP figure was another bearish marker on the currency and so far traders are moving away from their JPY investments as a result. Should tomorrow’s monetary policy statement give further dovish statements, the yen may find itself losing value against its primary currency rivals prior to this week’s close.

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