InvestMacro FX

July 1 (Bloomberg) — Shane Oliver, Sydney-based head of investment strategy at AMP Capital Investors Ltd., talks about the global economy and financial markets. Oliver, who also discusses central banks’ monetary policies, speaks with Rishaad Salamat and Susan Li on Bloomberg Television’s “Asia Edge.” (Source: Bloomberg)

July 1 (Bloomberg) — Joseph Tan, the Singapore-based chief economist for Asia at Credit Suisse Group AG’s private-banking division, talks about the outlook for regional economies and central banks’ monetary policies. Tan speaks with Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television’s “On the Move Asia.” (Source: Bloomberg)

The rapid pace of growth seen in the Turkish economy lately has both generated remarks of applause and concern. On the one hand, the economy of Turkey, as reported by the agency TurkStat, has risen 11% year-on-year for the first quarter of 2011, outpacing the expectation for a 9.6% rise, and a prior 9.2% growth in Q4 2010.

On the other hand, trade data is showing the Turkish trade deficit widening sharply, with imports rising 43% and exports a meager 11.7%. This asymmetry of Turkish economic expansion, according to analysts, is being fueled by rising domestic consumption propped up by an increase in credit growth. If measures are not taken soon to quell this booming rise in debt and rampant consumption, the Turkish economy risks overheating and entering a harsh downturn later this year.

So far the Turkish central bank disagrees, arguing in their latest meeting minutes that they view the current growth as healthy and see no signs of overheating. But the growing deficit in the nation’s current account could force the bank to hike rates in the near future to dampen the booming domestic demand that could eventually cause a bust in the economic growth of Turkey.

Read more forex trading news on our forex blog.

The price of corn was seen plummeting Friday after a US Department of Agriculture (USDA) study found both stockpiles and seeded areas to be larger than market forecasts. The whopping 92.28 million acres of land seeded this spring was the largest since World War II, with farmers overcoming the relatively colder and wetter period that had many economists speculating a short-fall this year.

Moreover, the amount of corn held in storage was found to be larger than many analysts were anticipating, with an amount of 3.67 billion bushels located in US stockpiles. The price of corn has so far fallen to a low not seen since March, with a current value just under $5.82 per bushel and steadily declining.

Read more forex trading news on our forex blog.

The Personality of Stock Market Waves

Elliott waves don’t merely reflect prices plotted over time. Each wave
has its own “personality.” Listen to this video by EWI’s Wayne Gorman
to learn more about the psychology behind the waves and how it affects your
investment decisions.

This video was taken from the free Club EWI video series: Learn the Why,
What and How of Elliott Wave Analysis. This 3-video series is a great way
to get started with the Wave Principle. You can get these videos free with
a Club EWI Membership.

Watch your free videos now >>

Already a Club EWI member? Access
the video series Learn the Why, What and How of Elliott Wave Analysis here.

About the Publisher, Elliott Wave International
Founded in 1979 by Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Data from several Asian nations this morning revealed a stark downturn in manufacturing across the East. With similar downturns across Europe and the Americas, several analysts view the figures as in line with expectations, despite coming in below market forecasts; though the data is hardly worth celebrating.

China published its Manufacturing PMI figures at 2:00 GMT this morning, revealing a minor short-fall in market expectations, though the impact was barely felt. Japan’s Tankan manufacturing data also fell short of forecasts, which was somewhat more surprising given the recent data on inflationary growth, a better-than-forecast retail sales report, and rising monthly industrial output.

Analysts have taken the news as a sign that growth in other parts of the globe may also see a downturn. This morning’s Chinese data suggests that fuel demand may wane in the months ahead; driving oil prices lower over the short- to mid-term. With manufacturing in decline, traders may anticipate more risk averse behavior throughout the next few months, leading to a stabilizing in value for safe haven currencies like the USD, JPY and CHF.

Read more forex trading news on our forex blog.

Article by JW Jones, optionstradingsignals.com

Investors and traders alike were watching the action unfold across the pond earlier this week. It was seemingly a foregone conclusion that Greece would get the bailout they desired in order to prevent a potentially catastrophic default. The Greek default situation increased volatility in financial markets around the world. In addition to the Greek dilemma, the end of the 2nd quarter and the customary window dressing by institutional money managers only heightened the volatile situation.

For the past week or so I have been sitting in cash, watching the price action and waiting for setups that have defined risk and solid rewards. With the heightened volatility I did not want to get involved because a trade in the wrong direction would wreak havoc with my portfolio. As this week evolved, the validity of those concerns was unquestionable.

Commodity investors have faced some tough price action recently as gold, silver, and oil have traded significantly lower quickly. Now that we have witnessed some heavy selling pressure set in particularly in the silver and oil markets investors want to know where price is heading in the short term.

U.S. Dollar Index

For the past several months I have been monitoring the U.S. Dollar Index futures in order to gauge the price action in commodities and the S&P 500. The Dollar is currently trading at a key support level and the price action in coming days will be telling. While I do not trade solely on analysis pertaining to the Dollar, I do look for setups where an underlying is dramatically impacted by its price movements.

When the planets align, I will take a trade with a directional bias that is supported by the price action in both the underlying that I’m trading and the U.S. Dollar’s price action as well. At this point in time, the U.S. Dollar Index is trading right at a key support level marked by the 20 & 50 period moving averages as well a recent low. The daily chart of the Powershares U.S. Dollar Index Bullish Fund $UUP is shown below:

UUP Daily Chart

Gold & Silver

The recent bounce higher in the U.S. Dollar has been a factor in pushing gold, silver, oil, & the S&P 500 lower. Silver and oil were impacted in the harshest manner, but all four asset classes were negatively impacted. Precious metals tend to weaken during the summer and then pick back up in the fall. However, the selloff in silver the past few months has been breathtaking. For precious metals bulls who entered silver late in the rally the only outcomes were dismal. Late comers to the silver bull market were either stopped out or are currently experiencing significant pain.

While I remain a longer term bull as it relates to precious metals, in the short term I expect lower prices to continue. A major factor in my analysis stems from a longer term standpoint; the U.S. Dollar has likely put in an intermediate to long term low. There are a variety of reasons as to why, but suffice it say that from a market cycle standpoint the Dollar has likely achieved a major low and a reflex rally is likely.

Issues in the Eurozone are far from over and as time passes I expect the impact of fiscal issues rising in countries like Ireland, Portugal, and Spain to have a major impact on U.S. Dollar prices. If the sovereign fiscal issues in Europe result in a default or even a more mild technical default, the impact will likely be bullish for the U.S. Dollar.

The daily chart of the SPDR Gold TR ETF $GLD and the Ishares Silver Trust $SLV shown below illustrate the key areas which may be tested before the bull market in precious metals continues:

GLD Daily Chart

SLV Daily Chart

I am of the opinion that if precious metals investors are patient an outstanding buying opportunity will present itself in both gold and silver in weeks ahead. Looking at the daily chart of the two shiny metals and identifying key levels that make sense to acquire positions is important in the trade planning process.

I like to have a trading plan in place should my expectations unfold because it removes emotion from my trading. Planning a trade and trading a plan are extremely helpful when investing in volatile markets like silver and gold. In the longer term, I continue to believe that gold and silver will shine, but in the short term more price weakness may be ahead.

Crude Oil

I am a long term gold and silver bull, but the single asset class that I am the most bullish about is energy. Oil prices in the long term have only one direction to go – HIGHER. I realize that a slowdown in the economy will put downward pressure on oil prices, but as the world’s demand for oil increases and the supply level plateaus or decreases oil prices will be forced higher. If the Dollar does rally as I expect, oil prices would likely be negatively impacted and a buying opportunity would be forged.

The daily chart of the United States Oil Fund ETF $USO is shown below with my future price expectations and current key price levels illustrated:

Oil Daily Chart

S&P 500

The S&P 500 is in a very tricky spot for traders. Right now price action is testing the underbelly of a major descending trendline on the daily chart shown below:

SPX Daily Chart

However, if we take a look at a weekly chart note the massive head and shoulders formation that many traders have totally missed. A rally to the S&P 500 1,340 price level would complete the pattern. While head and shoulders patterns have failed several times in recent history, this is a major head and shoulders pattern on the weekly chart which holds more credence than shorter time frames such as the hourly or even the daily charts. The weekly chart of SPX illustrates the head and shoulders pattern.

SPX Weekly Chart

In the short run I think the S&P 500 can work higher, but if I’m right about higher prices for the U.S. Dollar in the future I expect to see much lower prices in the S&P 500 in the intermediate term, particularly if the weekly head and shoulders pattern plays out. If the S&P 500 struggles to breakout above key resistance levels, I will be of the opinion that the bear may have stopped hibernating and an impending recession may be thrust upon us in short order. There are signs pointing in that direction, but right now it remains too early to call.

Conclusion

In closing, my analysis reveals that the U.S. Dollar is poised to push higher, particularly if current support holds. If the Dollar can push above key resistance levels overhead, I expect the resulting price action in gold, silver, oil, & the S&P 500 to be dismal for the bulls.

I will be watching the Dollar closely looking for clues about price action. If I’m wrong and the Dollar breaks to new lows I would expect a massive rally in precious metals, energy, and domestic equities. With the recent price action that we have seen in the U.S. Dollar, I find it much more likely that the U.S. Dollar extends higher in coming weeks. As usual, time will tell.

If you would like to be informed several times per week on SP 500, Volatility Index, Gold, and Silver intermediate direction and option trade alerts…

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Article by JW Jones, optionstradingsignals.com

With a long weekend ahead of US traders and a Greek disaster averted, albeit temporarily, this should allow for markets to calm a bit as traders will now turn their attention to the economic data in order to build on this past week’s rally. Though questions remain given the compromises that are required to bridge the German and French rollover plans as well as the opinions of the ECB and the rating agencies. The European debt crisis is also heating up in other areas given the fiscal difficulties Italy faces combined with the threat of a ratings downgrade of major Italian banks.

Economic data should turn to the forefront as the US jobs report will be highlight of the week. Today’s sub-par PMI releases from the UK, EU and China should be a note of concern for increased growth prospects. Weak Chinese manufacturing PMI data slid under the radar today while inflationary pressures in China continue to make headlines following Chinese Premier Wen’s comments to target 4% inflation despite continued readings above 5%. More drastic approaches may be needed in order to win the fight against inflation and the risk of a hard landing in China has broader implications for the global economy that depends on Chinese growth.

Read more forex trading news on our forex blog.

Senior Analyst Niels Rønholt takes a general view on the Danish economy and comments on the development on the housing market and the labour market.

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Video courtesy of en.jyskebank.tv

By Early To Rise

Paul was majoring in zoology at college. One semester he took a course in the study of birds – ornithology. For the final exam, Paul studied until he had the textbook nearly memorized. He knew his class notes backward and forward. He was eager to take the exam, certain of getting a good grade.

The morning of the exam, Paul took a seat in the front row of the big auditorium where the class was held. Over 100 students were in the class with him. On a table at the front was a row of 10 stuffed birds, each one with a sack covering its body so that only the legs were visible.

The professor announced, “For this test, which counts for 80% of your final grade, I want you to identify each bird up here by its legs, and then discuss its species, natural habitat, and mating patterns. You may begin.”

Paul stared at the birds. All the legs looked the same to him. After spending half the exam period in growing frustration as he tried to determine which bird was which, he picked up his exam and threw it on the professor’s desk.

“This is ridiculous!” he shouted. “I studied the textbook and my notes all night, and now you’re asking me to name these birds by looking at their legs? Forget it!”

The professor picked up the exam booklet and saw that it was blank. “What’s your name, young man?”

With that, Paul yanked one leg of his pants up. “Why don’t you tell me?”

Paul’s response probably didn’t earn him a passing grade, although I must admit, I admire his creativity!

“Creativity is a great motivator because it makes people interested in what they are doing. Creativity gives hope that there can be a worthwhile idea,” said English psychologist Edward de Bono. “Creativity gives the possibility of some sort of achievement to everyone. Creativity makes life more interesting.”

Everyone is born with the ability to be creative, but some people seem to lose it as they grow older, whereas others are better at accessing their creativity throughout their lives. Studies show that there is no correlation between IQ and creativity.

Here’s how to regain or retain your creative spark:

Be aware of what’s going on around you. A scientist needs to analyze all available facts and every bit of research. Stay on top of current business trends. Learn from other people’s ideas and mistakes.

Explore. Examine all of your options and alternatives, no matter how far-fetched they may seem at first. Don’t rule anything out as you look for solutions and new approaches.

Be courageous. You’ve got to be fearless and not worry about what others may think. Don’t try to be like everyone else. Take your own approach, whatever you’re doing. Prepare to accept some criticism but don’t take it personally.

Rely on your instincts. As you assimilate the information around you and assess the possibilities, factor in your instincts to come up with creative solutions. As legendary film director Frank Capra said, “A hunch is creativity trying to tell you something.”

Assess your options. Sort your ideas into categories, and rank them. Try combining ideas, and eliminate any that don’t fit what you’re looking for.

Be realistic. Step back and evaluate how your idea or solution is likely to play out in the real world. Look at the upside, but consider the downside as well. Not all great ideas will work, but they may lead to other solutions.

Stick with it. You need to be persistent if you want to achieve anything significant. A novel takes a long time to write; a successful business may take years to build. Keep a detailed picture of the intended result in your mind to help you stay focused and move forward.

Be patient. You can’t hurry creativity, so take time to ponder your ideas. Sit back and take time to think things over. That’s usually how the best ideas bloom.

Evaluate the results. At the end of the process, ask yourself: Has my vision been realized? Learn from what works and what fails so you can move on to your next project.

Creativity isn’t just a process. It’s a value. If you value success, get creative!

Mackay’s Moral: It only takes a little spark to ignite a great fire.

[Ed. Note: Harvey Mackay has written five New York Times bestselling books, two of them considered to be among the top 15 inspirational business books of all time – Swim With the Sharks Without Being Eaten Alive and Beware the Naked Man Who Offers You His Shirt. His latest book is Use Your Head to Get Your Foot in the Door: Job Search Secrets No One Else Will Tell You. Harvey has been named one of the top five speakers in the world by Toastmasters International. He is also chairman of the $100 million MackayMitchell Envelope Company, a business he started in 1960. This article was reprinted with permission from Harvey’s nationally syndicated column.]

This article appears courtesy of Early To Rise, a free newsletter dedicated to creating wealth and success through inspiration and practical, proven advice. For a complimentary subscription, visit http://www.earlytorise.com.