Central Bank of Kenya Pauses Rate at 18.00%

The Central Bank of Kenya held the benchmark lending rate unchanged at 18.00%, and held the Cash Reserve Ratio at 5.25%.  The central bank Governor, Njuguna Ndung’u, said: “The information analysed by the Committee showed that inflation is projected to ease further in early 2012. This outcome is a consequence of the monetary policy stance, the appreciation and stability of the exchange rate and the decline in oil prices. Furthermore, expected improvements in food supply will result in lower commodity prices.”

At its December meeting the CBK increased the interest rate by 150bps to 18.00%, after hiking by 550 basis points and raising the Cash Reserve Ratio by 50bps to 5.25%at its November meeting .  That move followed a 400bp increase of the interest rate to 11.00% at its October meeting, after raising 75bps in September, and previously increasing, and subsequently decreasing the discount window rate by 75 basis points to 6.25%.


Kenya experienced annual headline inflation of 18.93 in December, down slightly from 19.72% in November, but still higher than 18.91% in October, 17.3% in September, 16.7% in August, up from 15.5% in July, and up sharply from 9.19% in March this year, according to inflation data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics.  The Central Bank of Kenya has an inflation target of 5 percent.  


Kenya reported seasonally adjusted GDP growth of -4.6% in Q2, compared to +2% in Q1.  
A Kenyan Ministry of Finance official noted that Kenya is expected to record economic growth around 5-5.5% in 2011, and 6% in 2012.  

The Kenyan Shilling (KES) has weakened about 8% against the US dollar over the past year (having weakened by as much as 31% at the bottom); meanwhile the USDKES exchange rate last traded around 87.13

Polish Central Bank Holds Interest Rate at 4.50%

The Narodowy Bank Polski‘s Monetary Policy Council held the benchmark 7-day interest rate unchanged at 4.50%.  The Bank said: “In the opinion of the Council, in the medium term inflation will be curbed by gradually decelerating domestic demand amidst fiscal tightening, including reduced public investment spending, and interest rate increases implemented in the first half of 2011, as well as the expected global economic slowdown. The impact  of the situation in the global financial markets on zloty exchange rate together with a possible rise in commodity prices continues to be an upside risk to domestic price developments.”

The Bank also kept the following interest rates unchanged: the rediscount rate at 4.75%, the Lombard rate at 6.00%, and the deposit rate at 3.00%.  The Bank last raised the interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.50% in June last year, and held the interest rate unchanged at its previous meeting.  

Poland reported annual headline inflation of 4.8% in November last year, compared to 4.3% in August, 4.1% in July, with previous readings of 4.2% in June, 5% in May, 4.5% in April, 4.3% in March, and just higher than the Bank’s official inflation target of 2.5% +/- 1%.  


The IMF recently reduced its forecast for Poland’s 2011 economic growth rate to 3.8% from 4% previously.  The Polish Zloty (PLN) has weakened by about 19% against the US dollar so far this year; the USDPLN exchange rate last traded around 3.52.

Wednesday 1/11 Insider Buying Report: CMC

Bargain hunters are wise to pay careful attention to insider buying, because although there are many various reasons for an insider to sell a stock, presumably the only reason they would use their hard-earned dollars to make a purchase, is that they expect to make money. Today we look at a noteworthy recent insider buy.

Ford to Pit Next Fusion Against Chevy’s Volt and Nissan’s Leaf

Ford to Pit Next Fusion Against Chevy’s Volt and Nissan’s Leaf

by Jeannette Di Louie, Investment U Research
Wednesday, January 11, 2011

Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) thinks it can do something its competitors just haven’t been able to yet, try as they desperately have. It’s taking a drive into the world of environmentally conscious consumers with its newest model of the Ford Fusion.

That might not sound all that scary a decision for a business to make, since green energy certainly seems to be all the rage these days. But that doesn’t mean it always makes a great investment, as General Motors (NYSE: GM) found out the hard way last year with its Chevrolet Volt.

Everyone ranted and raved about the electric vehicle (EV) when it first hit the news. Back then, before anybody could prove otherwise, Chevrolet claimed its newest creation was a new breed of transportation altogether…

It wasn’t a hybrid or a plug-in hybrid, the company said. It was an “extended-range electric vehicle,” which sounds so much cooler.

With that kind of hype surrounding it, the Volt seemed to have it all, from its eco-friendly engine to its sleek and sassy chassy. People could not only save the planet from the ravages of carbon emissions, but they could do it in style.

Or so the automotive media claimed. Cross their hearts and hope to die.

A Trend for Electric Cars?

Unfortunately for Chevrolet, the reality was far less spectacular than the dream, as it oftentimes is.

Well before it had to start recalling the vehicles for the fire hazards they could present after side-impact collisions, the Volt wasn’t even coming close to meeting its sales goal of 10,000 units for 2011. And while it did get a nice bump in December, it still finished the year out down by 2,329.

An embarrassing failure by any standards, recession or not.

Admittedly, General Motors hasn’t been the healthiest company around for a while, as evidenced by their repeated requests for federal finances to keep their crumbling company alive in 2008 into 2009. Even so, the Volt’s big competition last year, Nissan’s (OTC: NSANY.PK) Leaf, fell short as well, though by merely 1,280 of its 10,000-unit goal.

None of that negative data seems to disturb Ford, however. Chief Executive Officer Alan Mulally and his team of automotive experts are busy even now working on their newest version of the ever-popular Ford Fusion for 2013.

It’s going to be an EV… and they’re all but daring consumers not to love it.

Ford Fusion Runs on Past Successes

Ford might seem late to the game when it comes to electric vehicles, considering all of the hype surrounding them for the past few years. But like the tortoise racing the hare, that might be their saving grace.

More often than not, when it comes to big purchases, consumers need some time to wrap their head around the idea of trying out something new. They need to be wooed into the purchase gently, convinced that their money is well spent on such a giant leap of faith.

That’s oftentimes partially because bigger purchases such as cars are usually more necessity than luxury, which means that they need to be practical. And let’s face it: Right now electric cars are not all that practical. For one thing, there’s an appalling lack of plug-in stations on the road these days and, without those pit stops, EVs have a disturbingly limited battery life.

But the technology seems to keep improving as time goes on, as technology often does. And so, by holding out until 2013 while its competitors went all in last year, Ford might have saved itself a lot of grief.

It can fine-tune its craft while simultaneously learning from Chevrolet and Nissan’s mistakes. So its finished product will probably be stronger, more practical and more attractive to consumers. It’s a technique that has worked wonders in the technology world over the past few years for Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL).

More than likely, Ford is going to end up showing its competitors how real business is done.

Good Investing,

Jeannette Di Louie

Article by Investment U

BMO Capital Sees Fertilizer Demand Re-Emerging In Q1, Upgrades Agrium And CF

BMO Capital analyst Joel Jackson issued a note to clients saying fertilizer demand was expected to re-emerging in the first-quarter.The analyst expects potash prices rising 5% – 10% in 2012, and also said he expects urea nitrogen to fall 3% – 5% while DAP phosphate to fall 13%.Jackson lowered his Henry Hub gas estimate to $3.80 vs. previous estimate of $4.50.The analyst upgraded Agrium (NYSE:AGU) and CF Industries (NYSE:CF) to outperform from market perform.

Euro Dips Ahead of Minimum Bid Rate

Source: ForexYard

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Negative comments by a top credit agency turned the euro bearish today, following several days of upward movement. The comments served as a warning to any trader who thought that the currency could maintain its bullish momentum. The EUR/USD once again dropped toward a 16-month low as investors reverted their funds back to safe-haven currencies.

Tomorrow’s batch of European news is forecasted to influence the market-place. The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision and subsequent press conference is expected to generate heavy market volatility. Additionally, euro-zone debt auctions scheduled to close out the week will illustrate just how bad the current euro-zone crisis actually is.

Traders should note that unless the debt auctions go smoothly, the euro is unlikely to stage any kind of meaningful recovery before the end of the week. With market sentiment overwhelmingly against the euro at the moment, it would take substantially good news to turn the currency bullish.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Earnings Report: Supervalu, SemiLEDs

Supervalu (SVU) announced that its third quarter loss increased to $750 million, or $3.54 per share, versus $202 million, or $0.95 per share in the same period last year. Excluding one time charges, the company did earn a profit of $50 million, or $0.24 per share.

Microsoft, News Corp Announce New TV, News and Web Video Apps For Xbox 360

Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and News Corp (NASDAQ:NWSA) announced plans to launch a series of new apps for Xbox LIVE that will feature content from News Corp.’s leading broadcast, news and Web properties. The apps will incorporate content -as well as voice- and motion-activated controls using Kinect for Xbox 360 – from brands including Fox Broadcasting Co., or FOX, Fox News Channel, IGN Entertainment Inc. and The Wall Street Journal.Video content from the Fox News Channel and FOX apps will be made available to authenticated subscribers of participating cable and satellite television distributors. News Corp. expects to announce authentication agreements to support the FOX and Fox News apps in the near future. All the News Corp. apps will be available to Xbox LIVE Gold members and are slated to launch in 2012.Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) has potential upside of 11.2% based on a current price of $27.94 and an average consensus analyst price target of $31.08.

Trade Forex Like a Fisherman


Some aspects of trading (especially patience) can be likened to that of a fisherman. Trading, like fishing requires a patient mind in order to be successful. A fisherman can go to an open sea with endless opportunities of catching fish; however, they are unable to see what fish, or how many fish are under the water which is why they must equip themselves with the right mindset and ‘tools’ giving them the best chance of a catch. The same can be said of a trader. A trader participates in a market with endless opportunities for making money; however similar to the fisherman, a trader is unable to know which trades they must take in order to be profitable unless they equip themselves with the right mindset and tools.MoneyFishing

When fishing, a fisherman must first determine what tools give him an ‘edge’ or the best chance of catching fish; he must decide what the best time and location to fish are, along with an appropriate rod and bait. A trader must do the same as a fisherman before they start trading if they are to be profitable. A trader should determine the best time to trade based on their circumstances (i.e. location & market volatility). The trader must then determine what is an appropriate ‘rod’ and ‘bait’ for profitable trading. A traders ‘rod’ and ‘bait’ is the system/strategy they will use to gain an edge in the market.

Possibly the most important aspects of being a good fisherman and trader are patience and discipline. Both are required for a successful outcome; having one and not the other can have a detrimental affect on success; having neither leads down a short road to almost certain failure.

Good fishermen, like good traders have patient minds and know that if they can adhere to their ‘rules’ or plan, they’re putting the odds of success in their favor. It’s not uncommon for a fisher man to sit by the side of a lake or on the ocean for hours a day and not catch anything. However they are usually patient enough to know that like trading, when fishing, you’re not guaranteed a catch (or winning trade) everyday.

Truly great traders fully understand the concept of patience. They genuinely have accepted that without being patient their chances of profitability are not as good. Patient traders will only take trades that meet with their predefined set of criteria (their system/strategy and trading plan). Its not uncommon to see impatient traders constantly over trading or entering trades that do not meet their rules with the mind set of ‘the more trades I take, the more chances I have of making money’. Unfortunately this is rarely the case; being impatient often forces the trader to experience a rollercoaster of emotions having a negative affect on their success.

Success in trading is heavily influenced by the level of discipline a trader can commit to. Once a trader has determined what system he will use, he must develop a trading plan. Following his plan with strong discipline can be one of the most difficult obstacles he faces in his trading career. It’s not uncommon to see struggling traders lacking discipline. Many undisciplined novice traders find themselves drifting from one system/strategy to another when they experience a few losing trades. A good fisherman understands the importance of discipline. They are confident in the way they go about their business and know not everyday will be a positive day; however they are disciplined enough to know that just because today was a ‘slow day’ tomorrow may improve. They don’t change their fishing style or buy new tools because they had a few catch less days on the water. A good trader has the same mindset. A disciplined trader may experience a string of losing trades; however they don’t panic or change their methods, they understand losing trades in forex is the ‘cost of doing business’.

Although the two are completely different; forex and fishing have a lot in common; mainly stemming from patience and discipline. Trading like a fisherman with a patient and disciplined outlook can turn an erratic equity curve into a smooth upwards moving line.

Article by vantage-fx.com

Guggenheim Analyst Says Apple May Be Open To A Prepaid iPhone

Guggenheim analyst Shing Yin said that Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) may be open to a prepaid iPhone, iPhone 4 likely first.The iPhone 4 is likely to take the place of the 3GS, and the 4S will likley replace the 4 when Apple launches the iPhone 5 later this year.MetroPCS (NYSE:PCS) and Leap Wireless (NASDAQ:LEAP) could offer a prepaid iPhone 4 for $200 at retail, after $150 subsidy.Guggenheim rates PCS with a neutral and LEAP with a buy.