Analyst Moves: AMZN, WDR

Amazon. om (AMZN) today its estimates reduced by Goldman Sachs (GS) which assigned the company a neutral rating with a $182 price target due to lower sales and higher costs.

Analyst Moves: C, AMCX

Citigroup (C) was upgraded today by Wells Fargo (WFC)from market perform to outperform due to better operating leverage. The firm also boosted Citigroup’s earnings estimates.

Wednesday 2/1 Insider Buying Report: D, CLFD

Bargain hunters are wise to pay careful attention to insider buying, because although there are many various reasons for an insider to sell a stock, presumably the only reason they would use their hard-earned dollars to make a purchase, is that they expect to make money. Today we look at two noteworthy recent insider buys.

Daily Market Wrap: February 1, 2012

The markets made some impressive gains, as investors remain hopeful that a Greek deal can be reached. The ADP national Employment Report showed that private employers added 170,000 jobs in January, meeting expectations.

Daily Dividend Report: BRCM, AFL, COF, HSY, HVB

Broadcom Corporation (BRCM) announced its quarterly dividend of 10 cents per share, an increase of about 11% over its prior dividend in November of 9 cents. The company announced earnings that beat analyst estimates, though revenue fell, and issued positive guidance for the first quarter.

Fed’s Near-Zero Interest Rate Policy a Failure?

The world’s largest central banks continue to follow a low interest rate policy first implemented to deal with the 2008 recession. The argument for adopting the record-low rate was that deep cuts to the lending rate would help ensure sufficient liquidity within the financial system and encourage spending and growth promotion.

In this regard, the U.S. Federal Reserve was the most aggressive of the major central banks. After a quick succession of rate cuts, the Fed took less than a year to chop the benchmark lending rate from 5.25 percent, to a maximum of 0.25 percent as of December, 2008. Now, more than three years later, the lending rate remains zero bound; a fact that has some critics suggesting the Fed’s policy has failed to accomplish its stated goals.

One of the most vocal opponent’s of the Fed’s approach is himself a Federal Reserve Bank President. Thomas Hoenig, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City has, on several occasions now, spoken out against the continuation of near-zero interest rates.

Referring to the current Federal Funds rate as a “subsidy” for the banking industry, it is Hoenig’s assertion that while banks are indeed taking advantage of the “cheap” money available from the Fed, funds are not being made available for commercial and retail lending. The banks are instead simply investing the cash directly into higher yielding bonds including U.S. government treasuries. As of Wednesday morning, the benchmark 10-year yield on U.S. debt was 1.82 percent.

Using money from the Fed to buy higher yielding securities may make it possible for institutions to profit on the positive interest rate carry, but does little to help businesses acquire capital to expand and help get Americans back to work. It can also be argued that this policy has actually reduced liquidity.

With the ability to profit on higher-yielding bonds as described, banks have become even more selective to whom they provide loans. Banks can simply shun all but the top-tier ventures representing the least amount of risk. The result, according to Hoenig, is that rather than encourage lending to support growth, the Fed’s policy has actually made it more difficult for smaller companies and private individuals to gain access to the Fed’s liquidity.

Scott Boyd is a currency analyst and a regular contributor to the OANDA MarketPulse FX blog

Eurozone Debt Crisis Infographic

The recent downgrade to sovereign credit ratings for several of the Eurozone countries is just the latest challenge to befall the 17-member group of countries sharing the Euro. A total of nine countries were included in the downgrade and while none of the changes were overly surprising, the reclassification casts doubt on the likelihood that some of the weaker countries can remain viable.

With the reclassification, Germany, Finland, and the Netherlands are the only countries to retain triple-A rated status. When expanding to all of Europe, only two more countries – the UK and Switzerland – can claim top status, and the UK’s hold on triple-A is tenuous.

The following graphic compares the debt for most of the European economies together with their current credit rating. The 10-year bond yield is represented by the anchor dragging behind each economy – the bigger the anchor, the greater the drag on the economy.

At a Glance: European Debt and Credit Ratings

Sovereign income, debt, and credit by region

Sovereign income, debt, and credit by region

Created by OANDA

Bank of Uganda Cuts Interest Rate 100bps to 22.00%

The Bank of Uganda cut its new monetary policy interest rate (the central bank rate [CBR]) 100 basis points to 22.00% from 23.00% previously.  The rediscount rate and Bank rate were also reduced by 100 basis points to 26% and 27% respectively.  Bank of Uganda Governor, Emmanuel Tumusiime-Mutebile, said: “Compared to the previous month, the BOU now believes that the prospects for a fall in inflation during the course of 2012 have strengthened.  The BOU is now confident that inflation will be reduced to single digit levels by the end of 2012,”


Previously the Ugandan central bank last increased its interest rate by 300 basis points in November, and 400bps to 20% in October, after hiking 200bps in September, and 100bps at its August meeting, and previously setting the new central bank rate at 13.00% at its June meeting.  The Bank only recently began using the 7-day interbank rate to influence inflation, also commencing official targeting inflation; the Bank previously announced an inflation target of 7%, and noted it has a 5% core inflation target in its September press release.  

Uganda reported annual headline inflation of 27% in December, down from 29% in November, and 30.5% in October, compared to previous readings of 28.3% in September, 21.4% in August, 18.8% in July, 18.7% in June, 16% in May, and 14.1% in April, while core inflation was 29% in December.  
Uganda reported annual GDP growth of 6.3% in the fiscal year to June, compared to 5.5% in the same period last year.  

The Ugandan shilling (UGX) has depreciated by about 3% against the US dollar over the past year; while the USDUGX exchange rate last traded around 2,335, off from the highest (2,885) on record (against a low of 1570 in 2008).