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For the next week we are in favor of some more downward consolidation but for that a decisive break below 108.48/108.40 is required, as mentioned above. Such a break should bring further downward move first towards 107.50 and then possibly towards 106.50/106.65. This would represent the supports of 55-day EMA as well as the upper edge of daily Ichimoku cloud. Even if EUR/JPY breaks below this resistance zone, we would expect very strong support near 105.63 (March 7th).

Please note that we will be taking any downward moves as consolidation and not as bearish trend till any strong break below the psychological 105.00 level takes place.

On the upside a break over first the recent 111.43 and then 111.62 (end of October 2011 resistance) is required for further upward moves towards 114.20 or more.

Please note that EUR/JPY has started showing the early signs of trend reversal for upside but a better indication of the same will only come with a decisive break over 111.60 and then 112.00 and when 110.00 becomes a support level instead of resistance.

Further Readings:

1) EUR/JPY forecast for weekly overview of the currency pair.

2) Daily technical analysis of EUR/JPY.

3) Forecast of GBP/JPY.

By forexabode.com

Weak economic data out of China, Europe and the US lately have made Senior Strategist Ib Fredslund Madsen wonder if the economy has the ‘spring blues’.

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After such a strong upward move since February 2nd, a correction is very natural. This was also expected because of the approaching psychological resistance of 85.00. The facts that USD/JPY has broken below the support of 22-day EMA and also the support of Kijun-sen of daily Ichimoku cloud first time since February 10th, turns the focus for some more downward correction. With a decisive break below 81.90 we would expect further downward move towards the range of 81.05/81.30. Please note that the upcoming supports are as follows:

1)    Near 81.30: Upper edge of daily Ichimoku cloud.
2)    Near 81.05: Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the upward move during February 2nd to March 15th.
3)    Near 80.90: 55-day EMA.
4)    Support because of approaching psychological level of 80:00.

Please note that we are taking the recent downward move and also the expected further downward move as a consolidation/correction and not as a bearish trend. We would still favor another upward move after this correction. Even if the pair breaks the above mentioned supports, we would expect a very strong support near 81.58 (March 7th and 8th).

In case USD/JPY fails to break below 81.90 and if a break over 83.00/83.20 resistance zone takes place then our focus will again change towards a retest of 84.18 and then 84.60 before a move towards the psychological level of 85.00 takes place.

Further Readings:

1) USD/JPY Forecast: for weekly outlook of Dollar-Yen pair.

2) Daily technical analysis of USD/JPY.

3) GBP/JPY outlook.

By forexabode.com

During last week the currency pair mostly remained in volatile sideways and the attempt of recovery failed strongly at 0.9178. The fall after that took USDCHF to as low as 0.9067 or a bit lower than the previous low of March 9th. The currency pair closed for the week at 0.9080.

Please note that USDCHF has been continuously moving within the daily Ichimoku cloud since March 14th. It has been continuously finding resistance by the upper edge and support by the lower edge of the cloud since then. Any move below the current price will break the support of the lower edge of the cloud. Also please note that any recent attempt to break over 55-day EMA resistance has been failing.

Considering the above, for the next week our focus will be for some more downward moves if a break below 0.9070/0.9060 takes place. Such a move should take the currency pair first towards the psychological support of 0.9000 and below that towards 0.8930 or the low of February 24th.

In case support comes over 0.9060 and a break over first the recent 0.9178 and then 0.9217 takes place then our above mentioned outlook will change for further upward gains towards the previous high of 0.9335 and above that towards 0.9415/0.9420.

Further Readings:

1) USD/CHF forecast for the weekly outlook of the currency pair.

2) Daily USD/CHF analysis.

3) USD/JPY analysis.

By forexabode.com

GBPJPY went as high as 133.49 but found strong resistance and fell sharply. The currency pair then went as low as 130.01 before closing for the week at 130.68.

On one hand such a strong fall would make us expect some more downward move but on the other hand the current price level is quite sensitive to support for GBP/JPY. We need to consider the flowing points while analyzing the probable moves in the coming days:

1)    130.00 is now a psychological support and the support came just near 130.00. A decisive break of this is required to expect any further downward moves.
2)    For two consecutive days GBP/JPY tried to break the support of 22-day EMA but immediately found support. A decisive break of this is required to expect any further downward moves.
3)    This support for past 2 trading days was also at the level of Kijun-sen support of daily Ichimoku cloud.
Considering the above we see that there are three strong support levels working at the current price level. A decisive break of these is required to have our focus for further downward movement.

If firm break of 130.00 takes place then on the downside we will expect frequent support in 129.00 ranges. Any strong break of 129.20 may take GBPJPY towards 128.20 and then possibly towards 127.20. 127.20/127.25 will represent 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the upward move during January 14th to march 22nd. It is also slightly below 55-day EMA support and above the strong support level of March 7th i.e. 126.54.

Please note that we are taking the current downward move just as a consolidation/correction and our overall outlook stays bullish and we expect another upward move either if 130.00 support is not broken or from one of the support levels mentioned above.
On the upside a break of the recent high of 133.49 should take GBP/JPY towards the psychological resistance of 135.00. A break of that is very important to expect further upward move first towards 136.20 and then 137.00.

Further Readings:

1) GBP/JPY forecast for weekly outlook of the currency pair.

2) Daily technical analysis of GBP/JPY.

3) EUR/JPY outlook.

By forexabode.com

GBPUSD remained is a volatile sideways mode between 1.5923 and 1.5768. The downward move of Thursday found support almost at 55-day EMA level and on Friday the support came from 22-day EAM level and the currency pair closed for the week at 1.5869.

For the next week we stay neutral. Some upward moves may take place to retest 1.5923 and GBP/USD breaks above 1.5923 then we would expect some upward move towards 1.5960 to 1.5990 resistance zone. Please note that since January 30th, GBP/JPY has been having a volatile sideways move between 1.5500 and 1.6000. Both these levels are psychological support and resistance levels and we can expect further volatile moves between these. A directional move should take place only with a decisive break of either of these levels but we favor the downward side. On the upside any decisive break over 1.6000 should take GBPUSD towards 1.6165.

On the downside a break of the low of the last week i.e. 1.5768, which will represent the break of 55-day EMA support as well as the break of the lower edge of the daily Ichimoku cloud, should bring further downward move towards the range of 1.5650 to 1.5620. But overall, as mentioned above, we need to wait for a break of either of the psychological levels to expect any real directional move and trend.

Further Readings:

1) GBP/USD forecast for weekly outlook of the currency pair.

2) Daily GBP/USD technical analysis.

3) EUR/USD Weekly forecast.

By forexabode.com

AUDJPY moved as high as 88.64 but found strong support and took a strong fall. The currency pair went as low as 85.18 before closing for the week at 86.19.

On one hand such a strong fall would make us expect some more downward move but on the other hand the current price level is quite sensitive to support for AUD/JPY. The following points need to be considered while analyzing the probable moves in the coming days:

1)    85.00 is now a psychological support and the recent support came just over this level. 85.00 support was broken on March 7th but the pair had immediately jumped up. To a new recent high. A decisive break of this is required to expect any further downward correction.
2)    For two consecutive days AUDJPY tried to break the support of 55-day EMA but has been finding strong support to close much above it. A decisive break of this is required to expect any further downward moves.
3)    This support for past 2 trading days was also just below the upper edge of the daily Ichimoku cloud. The on both the days this support was broken but the immediate upward jump made AUDJPY to close above the upper edge of the cloud.

Considering the above mentioned points we see that there are three strong support levels working at the current price level. A decisive break of these is required to have our focus for further downward movement. One thing which goes in favor of further downward consolidation is the effect of the very strong psychological resistance of 90.00. AUDJPY was moving towards it.

In case a decisive break of first 85.00 psychological level and then the recent 84.81/84.80 (March 7th) takes place then we can expect the consolidation to continue towards 84.00/83.80. This consolidation would represent Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the upward move during December 16th, 2011 to march 19th, 2012.

On the upside another break of 88.64 should bring frequent resistances because of the approaching psychological level of 90.00 and we would expect a slow upward once there is a break over this recent high (88.64). But such a break should first take the currency pair towards 89.60 before trying to test 90.00 level.

Further Readings:

1) AUD/JPY forecast for the weekly outlook of the currency pair.

2) AUD/JPY daily analysis.

3) GBP/JPY forecast & outlook.

By forexabode.com

Video courtesy of ForexCT – A leading Australian forex broker, liscensed by the Australian Securities & Investments Commission, offers the MetaTrader4 and PROfit Platform to retail traders. Other services include Segregated Accounts, Trading workshops, Tutorials, and Commodities trading.

Source: ForexYard

Crude Oil prices remain high even though we did not see too much movement throughout March.The main issue affecting crude oil prices are the tensions between Iran and the West,which to this day remain all but over.

The global oil supply could be affected due to the recent sanctions taken on by Iran,as a recent report suggests oil exports from Iran will drop 300,000 barrels per day.

In regards to the sanctions pulled by Iran, Saudi Arabian officials are claiming that there is a strong possibility that they will increase its oil production by 25% to help ease the markets if need be.
This news coming out of Saudi Arabia will solely depend on the situation between Iran and the West. If tension rises even further, there’s a strong possibility that the Saudi government will go through with increasing their oil production by the suggested 25%.

This week, there are a number of reports to be published that could possibly affect the price of Crude.
Reports such as the U.S pending home sales,consumer confidence report,U.S,Canada and GB GDP, Chinas’ manufacturing PMI, U,S core durable goods and the U.S Jobless Claims Update.

If we see  positive outcomes from the majority of the U.S reports as well as indications of growth, we could see crude oil strengthen as a result. Also, if certain Major currencies such as the Euro or Aussie dollar gain over  the Greenback it may positively affect crude oil prices. Continue reading “Crude Oil Weekly Outlook”

Video courtesy of ForexCT – A leading Australian forex broker, liscensed by the Australian Securities & Investments Commission, offers the MetaTrader4 and PROfit Platform to retail traders. Other services include Segregated Accounts, Trading workshops, Tutorials, and Commodities trading.