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This morning, Citigroup downgraded shares of IAC (IACI) from buy to neutral citing valuation. The stock is approaching the firm’s price target of $53 per share, leaving less upside for new investors.

Our analysts were right about Apple (AAPL) declaring its dividend and surging past $600/share. But how do they feel about the future of Apple?

All I can say is… Our analysts are the real deal.

Last year, Investment U Associate Investment Director Marc Lichtenfeld and Senior Analyst Steve McDonald made bold predictions about the world’s largest tech company Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL).

And already this year, both of their forecasts have come true…

Prediction #1: Apple to $600

Steve McDonald’s prediction came first on December 19th. Here’s the condensed version of what he had to say:

“A recent survey of buying trends of iProducts for Morgan Stanley by AlphaWise was full of upside surprises.

“The street may be underestimating Apple’s 2012 ‘iProducts’ sales by as much as 40 percent.

“If this survey is even close, Apple at $600 per share is a gimme. You don’t want to miss this one.”

Of course, March 15th, Apple’s shares hit $600 for the first time ever. They’ve climbed even higher since…

I had to ask Steve what he thinks Apple will do from here. Here is his gut-felt response:

“The reason AAPL is at $600 is Steve Jobs. I have never been a believer in the company, frankly I think it’s mostly smoke and mirrors. They make gadgets, good gadgets but nothing with any staying power, not a Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) or a General Electric (NYSE: GE). If they don’t keep the imagined miracles coming, they will be back in the same toilet Jobs pulled them out of over the last 10 years.

“Jobs did a selling job on the world that made PT Barnum look like a chump! Don’t get me wrong, I love a good story, especially when it churns out the kind of money AAPL has, but AAPL is 60% story, 30% gadgets and 20% emotion driven by Jobs’ faithful.

“Here’s what kills me about AAPL.

“Their products, especially the iPad and their computers, don’t do one thing PC’s and laptops don’t. In fact, in my experience they’re harder to use and have more limitations.

“Their I phones do exactly what Research in Motion (Nasdaq: RIMM) did before them, but Jobs even got folks to buy apps for that, apps that were free on the internet for PC’s, insane!

“But, and this is the billion dollar but, buyers have been convinced by Jobs and his story that these are new ideas and will do more than other computers. Remember, an Apple laptop or computer is four times the cost of a PC by Hewlett Packard (NYSE: HPQ) or any other box manufacturer, and Jobs has people buying them for no other reason than they think they’re on the cutting edge.

“Here’s what I see happening.

“AAPL lost their retail genius to JC Penney (NYSE: JCP). That will hurt. Jobs is gone. AAPL TV is their last ace in the hole for a long time to come and it has already stumbled once. Competition is coming out of the woodwork for their phones, tablets and laptops. But their biggest problem is the same problem the internet boom had in the 90’s; their buyers are fad folks who will turn away as soon as the next leading edge gadget comes along.

“Look for this to pop with market enthusiasm this year and drop with it, too. Unless AAPL TV is a big – really big sell – we could see this stall and correct. I give it a 50/50 chance of moving significantly higher, say 700.

“Wish I could be more specific but it is all up to the tech herd and how they read it, which has never been a reliable indicator.”

In his December article, Steve also mentioned that Apple’s low P/E ratio of 13.8 (as of December 16) translated into a share price of $638. I asked him the likelihood of this happening given current economic conditions:

“We would have to get hit really hard this year for economic conditions to significantly affect AAPL sales. We may see a slowing but no big fall. Even during the depths of the collapse we saw decent sales for them.

“But, Bernanke said the other day the recent strength in the markets and the jobs numbers were just blips. He thinks we are still weak and fragile. I agree!

“As we speak the PE is around 17. That’s pretty full for this market. Unless we see really big Asian numbers and the TV thing pops soon, the whole thing is questionable.

“We are in a market period I really dislike; very strong couple of months and very high stock prices.  So I am not a total bull on anything right now.

“If I owned the stock, which I do not, I would have tight stops. I couldn’t recommend buying at this price.”

Of course, Marc Lichtenfeld also made a great call…

Prediction #2: Apple Declares a Dividend in 2012

On December 28th, we sent Marc Lichtenfeld’s predictions for 2012 to IU subscribers. Always in good humor, this is what he had to say about Apple:

“There are a lot of Apple shareholders who are demanding that the company part with some of that $26-billion cash hoard.

“While Apple is still growing and innovating, it’s no longer a young company that must clutch its wallet like George Costanza at French Laundry (a $300 per person restaurant in Napa County, California).

“Compared to other tech companies like Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) and Intel (Nasdaq: INTC), which also have tons of cash but pay dividends, Apple has even stronger numbers and should be able to institute a dividend easily.

“Intel and Microsoft paid dividends equal to roughly 20% of cash flow from operations. It seems like Apple should be able to do the same.

“I wouldn’t be surprised to see $7 billion or so put to work on behalf of shareholders. Some may be used in a buyback with the rest paid out in dividends during a 12-month period beginning in 2012.”

On March 19th,  Apple declared a quarterly dividend of $2.65 per share beginning this July. On top of the dividend, the company is also going to begin a share buyback plan for $10 billion.

Even though Marc is a very busy guy, he managed to take a moment out of his day to answer a few questions for IU subscribers, such as where he thinks Apple is going to go from here:

“I suspect Apple will become a Perpetual Dividend Raiser – what I call a company that raises its dividend every year.  The current dividend will cost Apple about $10 billion per year.  Meanwhile, Apple generated over $17 billion in cash flow from operations – in just the last quarter.  So the company has plenty of room to grow the dividend over the coming years.” 

Marc also predicted Apple will begin a $4 billion buyback with $3.5 billion allocated for dividends. Apple is obviously going at this much more aggressively than originally anticipated.

Does Marc think this is a good sign or bad sign for Apple investors moving forward?

“A stock buyback reduces the share count, which is positive for investors.  However, large cap companies do not have a good track record when it comes to buy backs.  They often deploy the capital for a stock repurchase because that capital is available, not because management thinks the stock is a good value.

“If Apple’s management proves that it can repurchase stock at an opportune time, that will be beneficial to shareholders.  But I’d rather see the money committed to the dividend.  With its cash hoard and enormous cash flow, there’s no reason why the stock shouldn’t have a 4%+ yield.”

The Bottom Line

Is Apple making the right moves? It seems the company has a lot to prove to our experts. If it continues its tear, it wouldn’t be the first time Apple has negated sound analysis. But also consider this, Marc and Steve have made very lucrative careers out of making the right market calls.

Good Investing,

Mike Kapsch

Article by Investment U

By Chris Vermeulen, GoldAndOilGuy.com

The past two months we have seen all the focus from traders and investors be on the equities market. And rightly so and stocks run higher and higher. But there are two commodities that look ready to explode being gold and oil (actually three if you count silver).

Below are the charts of gold futures and crude oil 4 hour charts. Each candle stick is 4 hours allows us to look back 1-2 months while still being able to see all the intraday price action (pivot highs, pivot lows, strong volume spikes and if they were buyers or sellers…).

The 4 hour chart is one time frame most traders overlook but from my experience I find it to be the best one for spotting day trades, momentum trades and swing trades which pack a powerful yes quick punch.

As you can see below with the annotated charts both gold and silver are setting up for higher prices in the next 1-2 weeks from a technical point of view. That being said we may see a couple days of weakness first before they start moving up again.

4 Hour Momentum Charts of Gold & Oil:

By Chris Vermeulen, http://www.GoldAndOilGuy.com

London Gold Market Report
from Ben Traynor
BullionVault
Wednesday 28 March 2012, 08:30 EDT

WHOLESALE MARKET gold prices dropped to below $1680 an ounce Wednesday morning – 1% down on their high for the week – after failing a day earlier to break the $1700 barrier.

Silver prices drifted below $32.50 per ounce – a 2.3% drop from Tuesday’s peak – while stocks and commodities traded sideways and US Treasuries ticked lower.

Oil prices eased slightly after the French energy minister said France “is favorable to the suggestion” that the US and UK could release strategic oil stocks in an effort to lower the spot price of oil.

US policymakers meantime should not be complacent that recent signs of recovery will continue, US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke said in a US television interview Tuesday.

“We haven’t quite yet got to the point where we can be completely confident that we’re on a track to full recovery,” Bernanke said.

“It’s far too early to declare victory.”

On Monday, Bernanke said that “continued accommodative policies” were needed to support the US labor market. Stock markets rallied immediately following those comments on Monday, as did gold prices.

“Our economists believe that the market has been too aggressive in pricing in Fed rate hikes in 2013, while the Fed is more likely to push the hikes out to 2014 as indicated by [Monday’s] speech [by Bernanke],” says a note from Barclays Capital.

“We believe low interest rates and longer-term inflationary pressures should remain supportive for gold prices.”

Goldman Sachs meantime has reiterated its 12 month gold price forecast of $1940 per ounce. By contrast, precious metals consultancy CPM Group has said it does not expect gold to set new highs this year.

Here in Europe, the Eurozone crisis “is almost over”, Italian prime minister Mario Monti said Wednesday.

“Things have stabilized in Europe,” concedes Glenn Levine, Sydney-based senior economist at Moody’s Analytics, “and it’s in their interest to be optimistic but the muddle-through is still on… anyone who pretends to know if we are out of the woods yet is clearly kidding themselves or misleading their audience.”

Here in the UK, the economy shrank by more than previously through in the fourth quarter of last year, according to revised figures published Wednesday. Q4 GDP fell 0.3% from the previous quarter, compared to the previously reported 0.2% fall, according to the Office for National Statistics release.

By comparison, revised US GDP figures due out tomorrow are expected to confirm the American economy grew in Q4.

“Why is their recovery better than ours?” asked Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Adam Posen in a speech of that title on Tuesday.

Posen, who has voted for more quantitative easing at fifteen of the last eighteen MPC meetings,  went on to cite differences in government fiscal tightening as one factor that explains “a sizeable share of the growth differential between the US and UK.”

Over in India, finance minister Pranab Mukherjee said Tuesday he will not reverse the recent rise in import duties. Many Indian gold dealers have closed in protest and remain on strike.

“Until the Indian jewelers reopen their shops, Indian gold demand will remain weak,” says a note from HSBC.

“The dip in Indian demand may be partly offset by better Chinese physical demand as Shanghai premiums [over Spot Gold] remain high.”

In China meantime, after India the world’s second-largest gold consumer, stock markets saw their biggest falls in four months Wednesday, Bloomberg Businessweek reports.

The falls came after the country’s largest copper producer, Jiangxi Copper, reported an 18% drop in earnings and investment bank Societe Generale said consensus estimates for Chinese companies were “far too optimistic”.

“Investors had expected earnings to be weak but they are still below expectations,” says Larry Wan, head of investment at Union Life Asset Management in Beijing, which manages over $2 billion worth of assets.

“Moreover, shares have already risen quite a bit this year on monetary easing expectations.”

March sales by the US Mint of gold American Eagle bullion coins – produced explicitly for gold investment purposes – are already more than double the total for February. However, the nearly 1.4 tonnes sold represents a 40% drop on the March 2011 figure, and looks set to be the lowest March total since 2007.

Sales of silver bullion American Eagles meantime have breached the 10 million ounce mark, equivalent to 311 tonnes. By comparison, the US Mint sold 12.4 million ounces in the first three months of 2011.

Ben Traynor
BullionVault

Gold value calculator   |   Buy gold online at live prices

Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK’s longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics.

(c) BullionVault 2011

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

Shares of Apollo Group (NASDAQ:APOL) fell 7.8% Monday morning after the company said it predicted that enrollment in the third quarter would turn negative.The company reported topping second quarter earnings with an EPS of $0.58, topping analyst estimates of $0.37 per share and revenues for the quarter were $969.60 million, better than consensus estimates of $932.82 million.Apollo Group (NASDAQ:APOL) has potential upside of 38.1% based on a current price of $39.88 and an average consensus analyst price target of $55.08.Apollo Group is currently below its 50-day moving average (MA) of $49.18 and below its 200-day MA of $47.58.In the last five trading sessions, the 50-day MA has fallen 1.71% while the 200-day MA has remained constant.

Video courtesy of ForexCT – A leading Australian forex broker, liscensed by the Australian Securities & Investments Commission, offers the MetaTrader4 and PROfit Platform to retail traders. Other services include Segregated Accounts, Trading workshops, Tutorials, and Commodities trading.

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox (Dublin) – The single currency traded in a tight range but is stable above 1.3300 levels. Euro printed a high of 1.3372 but was unable to push higher. It is currently trading around 1.3343, up almost quarter of a percent for the day. The support may be seen at 1.3320 and below at 1.3260. The resistance may be seen at 1.3360 and above at 1.3400. The M3 money supply came slightly below expectation at 2.3%. The consensus was 2.4%. The CPI data from Germany is due later in the day.

The Sterling Pound plunged today against the US dollar on the back of crucial data from UK. The cable is trading around 1.5907, down about a quarter of a percent for the day. The break of 1.5900 level is pretty much possible. The resistance may be seen at 1.5920 and 1.5960 while the support may be seen at 1.5900 and below at 1.5860. The GDP of UK in the fourth quarter shrunk by 0.3% which was below the expectation of shrinkage by 0.2%.

The USD/CHF traded in a 36 pip range in the choopy market. The pair seems to have found the support at 0.9010 levels and it is currently trading around 0.9032, down about 0.20% for the day. The support may be seen at 0.9010 and below at 0.8960. The resistance may be seen at 0.9060 and above at 0.9100.

The USD/JPY is trading near the 83 levels at 82.97, almost flat for the day.  The 83 level is a strong resistance. Above 83, the resistance may be seen at 83.40 and above at 83.80. The support may be seen at 82.90 and at 82.50.

Australian dollar broke below the 1.0400 levels although it managed to pull back abve it. It printed a low of 1.0388 during the European session. The pair is losing ground throughout the day. It is currently trading around 1.0412, down about 0.43% for the day. The support may be seen at 1.0400 and below at 1.0350 levels. The resistance may be seen at 1.0450 levels and above at 1.0500.

The US dollar is trading around 79.12 in a tight range of 25 pips.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox

Source: ForexYard

The euro was able to maintain its recent bullish trend vs. the US dollar yesterday, after smooth debt auctions from Italy and Spain helped boost confidence in the euro-zone economic recovery. The EUR/USD saw significant gains earlier in the week, following a speech from Fed Chairman Bernanke in which he commented that the US economy was not growing quickly enough. Today, the dollar will have an opportunity to recoup its recent losses when the US Core Durable Goods Orders figure is released at 12:30 GMT. Analysts are predicting that the figure will come in well above last month’s. If true, the greenback could see gains as a result.

Economic News

USD – Dollar Reverses Losses vs. JPY, AUD

While the US dollar was not able to reverse its recent bearish trend against the euro yesterday, it did see moderate gains against both the Japanese yen and Australian dollar. The USD/JPY moved up almost 70 pips during the European session, reaching as high as 83.37 before staging a minor downward correction. The pair eventually stabilized at 83.15.

The AUD/USD, which had reached 1.0556 toward the end of the Asian session, dropped close to 80 pips over the course of the day. Analysts attributed the aussie’s bearish movement to poor Chinese fundamental news, which has caused investors to revert back to safe-haven currencies.

Turning to today, traders will want to pay attention to the US Core Durable Goods Orders figure, scheduled for 12:30 GMT. The news may help the dollar recoup some of its recent losses against the euro. The EUR/USD spent much of yesterday’s session trading around the 1.3330. With analysts predicting that today’s news will come in substantially higher than last month’s figure, the dollar may be able to stage a bullish correction during European trading.

EUR – Euro-Zone Debt Auctions Help EUR Maintain Gains

The euro largely maintained its recent bullish trend during trading yesterday, following successful debt auctions from both Spain and Italy. Specifically, the auctions helped strengthen the euro vs. the dollar, which turned bearish earlier the week following comments from the US Fed Chairman. The EUR/USD reached 1.3385 during the European session, a fresh three-week high for the pair. Against the Japanese yen, the euro moved up close to 80 pips, reaching as high as 111.23 before staging a reversal.

Turning to today, the euro may see some volatility when the US releases its Core Durable Goods Orders figure at 12:30 GMT. Analysts are forecasting the figure to come in well above last month’s, which if true, could result in the euro giving up some of its recent gains vs. the greenback. Additionally, traders should note that the euro-zone is still in a very fragile state. Any negative announcements today, specifically regarding Portuguese debt, may weigh down on the common currency.

Gold – Gold Extends Bullish Run

Gold saw another bullish day yesterday, as investors continued to flock to riskier assets amid a weak US dollar. The dollar fell earlier in the week following comments from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, who said that the US economy is not growing as quickly as it needs to for the unemployment rate to drop further. Gold reached as high as $1696.78 during the European session yesterday, an increase of close to 4000 pips since the beginning of the week.

Turning to today, the price of gold will likely be determined by how well the dollar responds to US news later in the day. Gold, which is priced in dollars, typically falls when the USD strengthens. Should today’s news boost the greenback vs. the euro, riskier assets like gold could fall later in the day.

Crude Oil – Crude Oil Slides during European Trading

Expectations that US crude oil inventories increased over the past week caused the price of oil to slip during European trading yesterday. High inventories in the US are usually a sign of decreased demand in the world’s largest oil consuming country, which can lead to a drop in prices. Yesterday, crude fell as low as $106.50 a barrel before staging an upward correction during evening trading.

Turning to today, the official US Crude Oil Inventories figure, set to be released at 14:30 GMT, is likely to determine the direction the commodity takes. Analysts are predicting the figure to come in at 2.8M, which if true, could cause the oil to extend its bearish trend. That being said, last week’s figure came in well below expectations, which led to a spike in prices. Should a similar event occur today, oil may reverse its downward momentum.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart appear to be narrowing, indicating that a price shift could occur in the coming days. The Williams Percent Range on the daily chart is in overbought territory, signaling that the shift could be downwards. Traders may want to go short in their positions ahead of a possible bearish correction.

GBP/USD

Most long term technical indicators show this pair in neutral territory, meaning that no major shift in price is expected at this time. That being said, traders will want to keep an eye on the MACD/OsMA on the daily chart. It looks like a bearish cross may be forming. If so, it may be a sign of a possible impending downward correction.

USD/JPY

The weekly chart’s Relative Strength Index is hovering right around the overbought zone, indicating that this pair could see downward movement. This theory is supported by the Williams Percent Range on the same chart, which is currently at -20. Traders may want to go short in their positions ahead of a possible downward correction.

USD/CHF

While the Williams Percent Range on the daily chart is currently in the oversold region, which is typically a sign of impending upward movement, most other technical indicators are in neutral territory at this time. Traders may want to take a wait and see approach for this pair, as a clearer picture may present itself later on.

The Wild Card

Nasdaq 100

The daily chart’s Relative Strength Index has drifted into the overbought zone, indicating that downward movement could occur in the near future. Additionally, the 8-hour chart’s Slow Stochastic has formed a bearish cross, lending further support to the theory of an impending bearish correction. Forex traders may want to go short in their positions today.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Video courtesy of ForexCT – A leading Australian forex broker, liscensed by the Australian Securities & Investments Commission, offers the MetaTrader4 and PROfit Platform to retail traders. Other services include Segregated Accounts, Trading workshops, Tutorials, and Commodities trading.

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox (Dublin) – The yen has been boosted by the decline in stock as investors have tried to seek refuge assets in the market. The yen increased against all the major currencies as investors sought safe haven assets. The euro has continued to increase against the dollar reaching a near one-month high today.

The current bullish run is as a result of traders’ speculation that the euro zone leaders will agree on creating a stronger firewall on the meeting to be held on Friday. However, the dollar was up against the Aussie prior to a report showing that YS orders for durable goods increased last month. This is further expected to reduce the prospects of another monetary easing operation by the Fed.

According to a Singaporean analyst, Lee Wai Tuck, the US stock fell but the Asian stock fell lower indicating that the Aussie might fall further down against the yen and euro might fall against the yen. The yen has strengthened against all the major currencies as speculation of Japanese companies repatriating their overseas earnings prior to the yearend on March 31 took root.

The yen increased by 0.6 percent against the dollar buying a dollar at 82.68 yen during the European session. It had climbed 0.2 percent against the buying the 17-nation currency at 110.51. However, the euro climbed against the dollar by 0.4 percent to settle at $1.3362. The euro climbed to $1.3386 yesterday, which is the highest it has been since February 29. The Australian dollar was weaker against the dollar by 0.2 percent selling at $1.044 during the European session.

According to some analysts, the yen is being affected by the demand and supply forces prior to the setting of exchange-rate by the fiscal year end.  The analysts are saying that the demand for the yen in the morning hour in Tokyo is due to traders’ efforts to buy the yen before the rate is fixed by most financial institutions which are usually done at 10 am in Tokyo.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox