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By eToro – Despite the recent downgrade of Portugal, the Euro continued to perform well in today’s trading.  The Euro is likely to test resistance levels near 1.3000. Click here to read the full daily Review

Forex Market Analysis provided by eToro

Disclaimer: Trading in the Foreign Exchange market might carry potential rewards, but also potential risks. You must be aware of the risks and are willing to accept them in order to trade in the foreign exchange market. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

GBPUSD’s rise from 1.4948 extends to as high as 1.5296 level. Further rally is still in favor later today and target would be at 1.5400 area. Initial support is at 1.5180, as long as this level holds, uptrend from 1.4948 will continue. Key support is at 1.5100, only fall below this level could indicate that lengthier consolidation of uptrend is underway, then sideways movement between 1.4870 and 1.5300 could be seen.

Daily Forex Signals

Good day my forex friends! Back in July 8, I asked if the euro’s rise against the greenback would be short lived since it was, at that time, approaching a significant resistance at the EURUSD‘s long term downtrend line (kindly see my previous entry here). Apparently, its breakout from an inverted head and shoulders has propelled it now even past the long term downtrend line. While I am not really convinced that the pair would reverse its course over the long term and start an uptrend already, its breakout from a shorter term inverted head and shoulders and its recent move above the mentioned resistance add to signs that it could. A successful break of this resistance could be like the breaking of the Berlin Wall. But in this case, it would represent the euro’s probable back to rise.

Technically, the pair could move sideways for awhile or even fall since the stochastics are already in the overbought region. Though, it could now use the neckline of the inverted head and shoulders and the downtrend line as supports to keep it from falling any further. Having said that, its next stage would probably be at 1.3250. A break of the mentioned supports, however, could send it back to the bottom of the shoulders.

To euro, alongside the other higher yielding assets, could gain some further support if the earnings reports of Google, JPMorgan and Chase, Bank of America, and Citigroup, post some stellar numbers. Buying interest could also rise if the US’s initial jobless claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, inflation figures (PPI and CPI), and the UoM Consumer Sentiment log some upbeat figures. Stay tune for these releases!

More on LaidTrades.com …

Hiyo stock friends! It’s good to be back in the market again! Anyway, on today’s post is the daily canvas of the  S&P 500. Like the Dow Jones in my friend’s post during the past weekend (kindly see it here), the broader index of the US, which for me, is more representative of the US’s economy, has also risen back to life after making a false break down. As you can see, the index had already broken below the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern. Luckily, investor confidence resumed and the index was able to keep itself back above the neckline again. Should the break down continued, the US’s equities could have been on a bear market again, probably leading to a double dip recession in the country’s economy.

Technically speaking, the S&P 500, however, is not yet out of the woods. It wood be on a better ground if it is able to move above both the 50-day and the 200-day average. A couple of indicators, though, show some bullish signs. One is the RSI which recently went above 50. In case you do not know, an RSI reading of above 50 indicates that the upward momentum is gaining speed. Notice also that the MACD had just made a bullish crossover as well with its histogram turning positive. In any case, if it is able to move past 1,150, then its next target would be its previous high just above 1,200.

Fundamentally, the market would be looking for some catalyst from the second quarter earnings report of the big firms in the US. Tech-giant Google and and financial holding company, JPMorgan Chase & Co., are set to release their earnings tomorrow (July 15). Bank of America and Citigroup will also publish theirs on July 16. Several market moving data from the US (PPI, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, CPI, and University of Michigan sentiment survey) will likewise be reported. Upside surprises from any of these reports could spur some buying while the opposite could cause some selling. Watch out for these reports!

More on LaidTrades.com …

By CountingPips.com

U.S. retail sales decreased for a second straight month in June as consumer spending on retail goods fell by more than unexpected. Advance estimates of retail sales showed that sales decreased by 0.5 percent to a total of $360.2 billion in June following a revised decrease of 1.1 percent in May, according to the report by the U.S. Commerce Department.

This marks the second consecutive month of decline in retail sales following a string of seven consecutive monthly sales increases through April. The retail sales results were worse than the 0.2 percent decline for June that the market forecasters were expecting.

On an annual basis and despite the monthly decrease, the June sales level was 4.8 percent higher than the June 2009 level following an annual gain of 6.9 percent in May.

Core retail sales, excluding automobile sales and parts, fell by 0.1 percent in June after core sales declined by 1.2 percent in May. On an annual basis, core sales increased by 4.4 percent in June from June 2009 following an annual gain of 5.7 percent in May.

Contributing to the decreased retail sales numbers for June was a 2.3 percent decline in motor vehicle and parts dealer sales. Also showing decreases for the month were gasoline station sales with a decline of 2.0 percent, sporting goods, hobby, book & music store sales with a 1.4 percent shortfall and a decrease by 1.0 percent in building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers.

Positively contributing to retail sales last month were nonstore retailers (+1.0), food services & drinking places (+0.2), miscellaneous stores retailers (+1.1), health & personal care stores (+0.5), clothing & clothing accessories stores (+0.6) and electronics & appliance stores (+1.3).

US Dollar falls in Forex Markets

The U.S. dollar has been trading lower in the forex markets for a second straight day against the other major currencies after today’s U.S. retail sales release and a day after the positive earnings report from Intel that has helped boost risk appetite. The American currency has lost ground today versus the euro, British pound, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Japanese yen.

The U.S. stock markets, meanwhile, have been slightly positive so far today with the Dow Jones increasing by over 25 points, the Nasdaq up by approximately 15 point and the S&P 500 is higher by over two points just before noon in the U.S. trading session. Oil has edged higher by $0.62 to the $77.77 level while gold has dipped by $3.70 to stand at the $1,221.00 per ounce level.

By Russell Glaser – Yesterday’s sharp appreciation in the EUR/USD signaled a fundamental shift in the trend of the pair.

The price made a close above the downward sloping trend line that has held since December of 2009. This is considered a significant breach of the long term trend line and the beginning of the uptrend that began in early June.

A distinct bullish channel has formed from the swing low on the chart beginning in early June where the pair has traded consistently. The lower line of the channel should now serve as the new uptrend line.

The near term resistance is yesterday’s high of 1.2740, noted by R1 on the chart. As such, the next target for the pair rests at the resistance line of 1.3090 at R2.

Supports for the uptrend come in at 1.2525, noted by S1, along with 1.2350 at S2.

The previous long term downward sloping trend line can also act as a support. If the price does retrace back to the old trend line, it could create a good setup to go long on the EUR/USD.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Market Analysis by Finexo.com

EUR/USD

The Euro continues to hover around its two-month high against the Dollar this morning, as more and more investors are buying higher-yielding currencies amid a surge in risk appetite.  This recent risk rally pushed the EUR/USD up from 1.2525 lows to back above the 1.2700 mark. Currently the pair is trading at 1.2705 after reaching an eight week high of 1.2735 earlier in the morning.

Helping drive risk appetite sentiments was a robust start to the U.S. corporate earnings season in conjunction with reduced concerns over the Euro Zone’s debt crisis. The Euro slipped yesterday afternoon following Moody’s decision to cut Portugal credit rating by 2 notches to A1; however, the single European currency recovered to touch on a two month high of $1.2739 yesterday afternoon following a strong response to the Greek government bond sale. The Euro also benefited from a wider than expected U.S Trade deficit, which widened by 4.8% in May. Economists had predicted the trade gap to narrow to $38.8 billion from $40.3 billion in April; instead a larger rise imports over exports forced the deficit to grow to $43.3billion.

Up ahead, investors will want to watch intraday support of 1.2690. If that area holds it may signal an emergence of buyers who are entering the market to accumulate positions in the pair, which could indicate another rally for the Euro.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD rose to a 2-day high of 1.5166 yesterday following the release of the U.S’s worse than expected trade deficit. Helping the Pound’s recent rally was a report showing that consumer prices increased, as expected, by 3.2% in June, from a year earlier. Up ahead, this morning’s UK Claimant count change, the earliest report of unemployment in the UK, could cause volatile movement for the GBP/USD. After last month’s drop of 30.9K, a smaller drop of 20.3K is predicted this time. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 7.9%.

USD/CAD

The Canadian Dollar rose to its highest level in nearly three weeks against its American counterpart following a surge in prices for raw materials, namely crude oil.  Yesterday, the Loonie touched on a high of C$1.0277, its strongest level since June 23. The USD/CAD then consolidated to close around C$1.030, up 0.7% from the prior day’s closing price.

Canada unexpectedly posted a trade deficit of C$0.5billion in May, as imports of machinery and equipment outstripped a rise in exports.  Meanwhile, Canada’s trade surplus with the United States, its largest trade partner, rose to C$3.59 billion from C$3.46 billion.

Forex Market Review & Analysis by Finexo.com

Disclaimer: Trading the foreign exchange (Forex) carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information and opinions contained on this website are to be used for general informational purposes only and do not consitute investment advice.

By Anton Eljwizat – The USD has dropped significantly versus the SEK in the past several days, and it is currently traded around 7.4070. And now as evident in the data below, the daily chart is giving bullish signals, indicating that USD/SEK pair might go up. Forex traders can take advantage of this impending movement by having their Entry Orders in place to capture this reversal.

• Below is the daily chart of the USD/SEK currency pair.

• The technical indicators that are used are the William Percent Range, Relative Strength Index (RSI), and Slow Stochastic.

• Point 1: The Slow Stochastic indicates a bullish cross, signaling that the next move may be in an upward direction.

• Point 2: Point 1: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that the price of this cross currently floats in the oversold territory, signaling upward pressure.

• Point 3: The Williams Percent Ranges is showing that this pair is heavily over-sold and may be experiencing strong upward pressure.

USD/SEK Daily Chart

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Source: ForexYard

Risk taking took over the marketplace yesterday, as the euro hit a two-month high against the U.S. dollar. A solid day for the global stock market as well as a successful bill auction in Greece, were the main factors causing investors to dump their safe-haven assets in favor of more volatile currencies and commodities.

Economic News

USD – USD Continues to Fall Against Its European Counterparts

Following the most recent return to risk taking among investors, the dollar fell against most of its main currency rivals, including the U.K. pound and euro. While an increase in the stock market is being cited as the main reason for the dollar’s decline, it is also worth noting that the U.S. Trade Balance figure came in below expectations yesterday. Furthermore, strong U.K. CPI and German Economic Sentiment figures helped bring the greenback lower.

GBP/USD has shot up around 200 pips in the last 24-hours. Although a moderate correction has taken place, the pair appears to be holding around the 1.5200 level going into today’s trading. EUR/USD hit a 2-month high in trading yesterday. The pair has risen around 175 pips over the last day, and is currently at the 1.2720 level.

Today, USD traders will want to watch out for several U.S. economic indicators that are likely to create market volatility. The Core Retail Sales, as well as the Retail Sales reports are set to be released at 12:30 GMT. Both are forecasted to show negative figures and could negatively impact the dollar. At the same time, should either figure unexpectedly come in above 0%, the greenback may receive a boost in afternoon trading. At 18:00 GMT, the Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to release its latest meeting minutes. This usually provides investors with a solid indication about where the U.S. economy currently stands. USD could experience some volatility depending on the statement.

EUR – Euro Continues to Gain on Safe-Haven Dollar and Yen

Following a significant jump in the global stock market yesterday, the euro made substantial gains on most of its main currency rivals. EUR/USD hit a 2-month high before making a slight downward correction. Currently the pair is trading around the 1.2720 level. Against the yen, the euro moved up well over 200 pips during the last 24 hours. Currently EUR/JPY is trading steadily around the 113.10 level.

Today, traders will want to pay attention a number of U.S. news events, as well as several European ones. Euro-zone CPI and Industrial Production figures, set to be released at 09:00 GMT, are forecasted to come in above last month’s levels. If this is indeed the case, investor confidence in the global economic recovery is likely to increase further. This would likely elevate the euro against the dollar, yen and British pound. Furthermore, several U.S. economic indicators are predicted to come in below last month’s figures. Should the American economy show further signs of deterioration, the dollar will likely continue to suffer against the euro as a result.

JPY – Yen Tumbles Following Gains in the Stock Market

JPY fell against virtually all of its major rivals throughout the day yesterday, and in overnight trading. The USD/JPY has gone up some 80 pips over the last day, while GBP/JPY rose an astonishing 270 pips during the past 24-hours. The reason behind the Japanese currency’s drop is largely the gains made on the global stock market. As investor confidence in the global economic recovery increases, safe-haven currencies like the dollar and yen typically drop as a result. As long as the stock market continues to see gains, traders can expect the yen to drop against more volatile currencies.

Today, the JPY value will largely be determined by U.K. and euro-zone economic indicators. Traders will want to pay attention the U.K. Claimant Count Change as well as European industrial production figures. Both are forecasted to show improvement over the previous month’s results. If analysts’ predictions are true, investor confidence will likely continue to rise. In this case, traders can expect the yen to drop further.

OIL – Oil Prices Shoot Up as Investor Confidence Rises

As investor confidence has risen over the last few days, oil prices continue to go up. The price of crude has shot up some 265 pips over the last 24-hours, ahead of today’s U.S. inventory report. The weekly report is forecasted to show that U.S. inventories have increased over the last week. Typically this means that demand is low and prices fall as a result.

That being said, oil has seen substantial gains due to the rise in stocks over the last several days. Should indices continue to move up today, traders can expect oil prices to rise as well. Attention should be given to both European and U.S. economic indicators to see where investor sentiment stands throughout the day. Positive data out of Europe will likely lead to higher oil prices.

Technical News

EUR/USD

Yesterday’s appreciation in the pair has allowed for a breach of the daily chart’s long term downward sloping trend line that began in December of 2009. Supporting the shift in the trend is the positive sloping 20-day and 50-day simple moving average. This signals a shift to the upside for the trend. As such, traders should be trading with the trend and going long.

GBP/USD

A false breakout has been displayed on the daily chart as the pair previously breached below the rising channel lines beginning on June 8th. Yesterday the pair broke higher to the resistance level of 1.5240 which brings the pair back into the channel to confirm the false breakout. The pair could target the next resistance levels of 1.5380 and 1.5520 respectively.

USD/JPY

The pair is testing the 89.15 resistance level and is showing strong momentum to the upside as the Relative Strength Index (14) is sloping sharply higher. A breach above the resistance level could take the pair higher to 89.75 where a reversal to the downside may be possible.

USD/CHF

The sharp downward trend that began in early June is seeing some consolidation near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the downtrend’s peak. The pullback to this level makes for a good entry back into the downtrend as today’s daily high ran into resistance at the 10-day simple moving average line. The next price target is the lows from this week at 1.0480.

The Wild Card

Oil

Spot crude oil prices continue to rise following the buy signal displayed on the daily chart. A cross of the 5-day simple moving average above the 20-day simple moving average could signal the beginning of a new bullish trend. CFD traders may want to enter long with a target of $80 in the near term.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By eToro – Despite a downgrade of Portugal’s debt by Moody’s the Euro continued its rally. The close above 1.2700 was impressive.  The Euro is likely to test resistance near 1.3000. Click here to read the full daily Review

Forex Market Analysis provided by eToro

Disclaimer: Trading in the Foreign Exchange market might carry potential rewards, but also potential risks. You must be aware of the risks and are willing to accept them in order to trade in the foreign exchange market. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.