Author: FX_Trdr

By Yan Petters – After 3 weeks on which the EUR/USD pair was traded within a very restricted range of about 300 pips, a major data release from the U.S. economy threatens to end the range-trading. The market has been extremely calm over the past 18 hours, and it seems that everyone waits for the end result of the Non-Farm Employment Change report before making their next move. Here is a technical perspective that might help you reach a better decision regarding your trading.

• The chart below is the EUR/USD 4-hour chart by ForexYard.
• The technical indicators used are the Bollinger bands, the Slow Stochastic, the MACD/OsMA and the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
• The chart shows consecutive “ups and downs” for the past 3 weeks, on which the EUR/USD pair was traded between the 1.3430 and the 1.3735 levels.
• In particular, it can be noted that all the last 4 candles are all dojis, reflecting the high tension that exists in the market at the moment, due to the expected Non-Farm Payrolls release.
• It can also be noted that the two major technical indicators are providing contradicting forecasts. A bullish cross of the Slow Stochastic suggests that the news release will create a bullish tend, whereas a bearish cross of the MACD indicates the opposite.
• Traders should take under consideration that all forecasts are worthless as soon as the real result is announced. Nevertheless, considering the current recent momentum of the Dollar, it seems that the end result will likely boost the Dollar and take the EUR/USD pair below the 1.3430 level.
• However, a very surprising release could reverse the trend, with enough potential to reach the higher level of the range.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Source: ForexYard

The forex market is bracing itself for some heavy volatility as the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls figure is set to be released today. The monthly report is one of the most significant market indicators and will heavily impact Dollar pairs.

Economic News

USD – USD May See Gains Following NFP Report

The U.S. Dollar, coming off a fairly bearish week, may see a reversal of fortunes today with the Non-Farm Payrolls Report set to be released at 13:30 GMT today. EUR/USD saw some heavy fluctuations throughout the week, with the Euro making gains as of late based new plans to cut Greek deficits. Similarly, GBP/USD was fairly bullish as risk taking among investors returned. Currently, the pairs are trading at 1.3597 and 1.5057 respectively.

The Non-Farms Payroll figure is forecasted to show that the U.S. economy shed approximately 56K jobs last month. The figure is higher then last month, which at first glance might mean the Dollar could turn bearish in trading today. That being said, the U.S. economy has shown impressive signs of growth lately. A NFP figure that meets or exceeds expectations will likely increase investor confidence in the U.S. economy, and could lead to major gains for the greenback.

In addition to the NFP report, the official U.S. unemployment rate will also be published at 13:30 GMT. While this is generally seen as a lagging indicator, the figure could influence USD for the foreseeable future. This is especially true as next week does not have a lot of major USD news events.

EUR – Investors Stay Clear of EUR Ahead Of NFP Report

The Euro appears to have entered a bearish trend in overnight trading as risk appetite has subsided ahead of a key U.S. employment report. Earlier this week, the Euro was able to see some significant gains following a more detailed plan for a Greek bailout. Following the European Central Bank decision to keep interest rates at their record lows, as well as the announcement from the head of the ECB that EU growth would be uneven, the Euro began its downward descent.

EUR/USD is currently trading at around the 1.3590 level, down almost 90 pips from yesterday afternoon. EUR/GBP is also down significantly, having dropped almost 40 pips since yesterday to its currently level of 0.9034.

In addition to the Non Farm Payrolls report, Euro traders will also want to pay attention to the British PPI Input figure set to be released at 09:30 GMT. The report is a leading indicator of consumer inflation in the U.K. Analysts are forecasting a low figure of around 0.1%, which could help the Euro make some much needed gains against Sterling.

JPY – Yen Takes Losses Against USD

Following a fairly bearish week for USD/JPY, it appears that the Yen has steadily reversed courses against the greenback. Beginning yesterday afternoon, the pair shot up almost 90 pips to reach its current level of 89.22. The Yen has faired better against the Euro as of late with the EUR/JPY falling over 70 pips in trading yesterday. The pair has bounced back slightly, and is currently trading at the 121.28 level.

Today, Yen levels will likely be determined by the result of the U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Report. If the figure comes in as forecasted, the Dollar will likely make gains on JPY. That being said, if this does occur, both the Euro and Pound will likely drop. The Yen should be able to capitalize on the fall of its European rivals.

OIL – Crude Prices Fall Ahead of U.S. Jobs Report

While the price of crude marginally increased in overnight trading, the commodity is still down over 30 cents from yesterday morning. This is largely due to the strong Dollar and the relatively low demand among U.S. consumers. Currently, the commodity is trading around the 80.57 level.

The U.S. Non Farm Payrolls could play a significant part in determining crude prices for the near future. Analysts are predicting that worse then expected NFP figures would likely be bad for the price of crude. High unemployment generally leads to low demand as consumers try to conserve their disposable income. Should the NFP report come in better then expected, demand should increase and drive up prices.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The pair has shown a lack of a trend this week, range trading with significant support and resistance levels at 1.3430 and 1.3680. The 4-hour chart shows the price has dropped from the Bollinger Band’s upper border and crossed below the 20-day moving average line. Traders could go short today, using the lower Bollinger Band as a price target, with a secondary support level at 1.3430.

GBP/USD

The strong bearish trend continued yesterday after a brief correction earlier in the week. Those traders that missed the breakout yesterday can still enter into the market at a relatively good price. The 4-hour chart’s MACD shows a down-sloping histogram and a potential bearish cross forming. Traders may want to wait for the cross and enter the market short with a target at 1.4880.

USD/JPY

Traders may find a good setup on the 4-hour chart. After a quick correction to the bearish trend, the price has risen to a resistance level of 89.35 and failed to break this mark. One of the best times to enter into the market is at a resistance level. A bearish cross may be forming on the chart’s Slow Stochastic Oscillator, indicating the potential for a downward price movement. Going short seems to be the right play today.

USD/CHF

The daily chart shows a channel has formed, beginning on Feburary 19th. The price has made contact with the downward sloping lower border three times, making this a significant continuation pattern. Traders may want to go long on this pair with a price target at 1.0880, the upper border of the channel.

The Wild Card

OIL

The daily chart shows some resistance. Both the 14-day RSI and the 7-Day RSI have crossed back below the overbought region, indicating sell signs. The MACD histogram is downward sloping, indicating a weakening trend. The MACD lines also appear headed for a bearish cross. Forex traders may want to scale back any long positions they may have and go short on crude oil today.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

EURUSD continues to move sideways in a range between 1.3435 and 1.3838. As long as 1.3838 resistance holds, the price action in the trading range is treated as consolidation of downtrend from 1.4579 and one more fall to 1.3300 is still possible. However, a break above 1.3838 resistance could indicate that the fall from 1.4579 has completed at 1.3435 already.

Daily Forex Forecast

By CountingPips.com

U.S. Pending Homes sales fell more than expected in the month of January, according to the monthly report released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) today. The NAR report showed that pending home sales contracts signed by buyers fell by 7.6 percent in January following December’s 0.8 percent revised decrease. On an annual basis, pending home sales were still 8.8 percent above the January 2009 sales level.

The January’s sales decline was worse than the approximately 1.0 percent increase that the market forecasts were expecting.

NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun commented on recent pending home sales levels saying, “January pending sales, though still higher than one year ago, remain much lower than expected given that a large number of potential buyers are eligible for the expanded home buyer tax credit. Moreover, the abnormally severe and prolonged winter weather, which affected large regions of the U.S., hampered shopping activity in February.”

Pending home sales in the Northeast decreased by 8.7 percent in January while the Midwest saw a decline of 8.9 percent. Sales in the South edged down by 2.1 percent and sales in the West decreased by 13.2 percent for the month.

On an annual basis, all four areas were above the January 2009 sales level with the Northeast showing an annual gain of 20.5 percent, the Midwest showing a 11.8 percent annual rise, the South showing a 18.0 percent increase and the West showing a 1.4 percent annual advancement.

Weekly Jobless Claims fall by 29,000.

A separate government release by the U.S. Labor Department showed that weekly U.S. jobless claims decreased in the week that ended on February 27th. New jobless claims fell to a total of 469,000 unemployed workers, a decrease over the prior week by 29,000 workers. The 4-week moving average of unemployed workers fell by 3,500 from the prior week to a total of 470,750.

Meanwhile, workers seeking continuing claims for unemployment benefits for the week ending February 20th also decreased for the week. Continuing claims fell by 134,000 workers to a total of 4,500,000 unemployed workers. The four week moving average of continuing claims dropped by 29,250 to 4,575,750.

The Aussie is fluctuating within a solid trading range right now as the currency pair battles its psychological .90 level again.  The AUD/USD did peak past our 2nd tier downtrend line yesterday, a key movement since it runs through 1/20 highs, or the .92 area.  Hence, the Aussie could be on the verge of a sizable topside breakout should fundamental and psychological factors work in the currency pair’s favor.  Meanwhile, the Aussie is still outperforming and has been a bed rock of consistency due to a tight stance from the RBA and encouraging Australia data sets.  Speaking of which, Australia’s Trade Balance revealed a smaller than anticipated deficit, signaling demand for the country’s commodities is still strong.  Additionally, Australia’s GDP printed in line with analyst expectations earlier this week.  Therefore, the RBA has fundamentals backing its hawkish monetary policy.  The Aussie is struggling a bit today though as the risk trade reacts badly to a poor U.S. Pending Home Sales figure.  However, the damage hasn’t been significant at this point in time.  The U.S. will also release Non-Farm Employment Change and headline Unemployment Rate numbers tomorrow, meaning volatility could pick up in the major Dollar pairs as the trading week comes to a close.  Additionally, investors should keep an eye out for any developments in the EU since there will be a highly publicized meeting between Greece and Germany tomorrow.

Technically speaking, the Aussie has multiple uptrend lines serving as technical cushions along with intraday, 3/2, and 3/1lows.  As for the topside, the Aussie has multiple downtrend lines serving as technical barriers along with March highs and the highly psychological .90 level.

Price: .9012

Resistances: .9011, .9025, .9041, .9057, .9074, .9090

Supports: .8993, .8981, .8965, .8950, .893, .8923

Psychological: .90, March highs and lows

(click to enlarge)

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

Gold has topped out and is trading back around $1130/oz following the precious metal’s solid topside breakout.  Gold is heading lower following a negative reaction to U.S. data revealing a large decline in Pending Home Sales.  Today’s discouraging U.S. housing figure sent investors towards the Dollar for safety, knocking the risk trade and dragging gold lower with it.  The precious metal was outperforming lately despite the Dollar’s strength.  However, gold is playing along today and some profit taking isn’t surprising since the precious metal was getting awfully close to its psychological $1150/oz level and previous 2010 highs.  Meanwhile, the markets could end the trading session on a volatile note with an important EU meeting tomorrow followed by key U.S. employment data.  The U.S. will release its Non-Farm Employment Change and headline Unemployment Rate figures.  Although the ADP printed about in line with expectations on Wednesday, the advance number has been known to be somewhat unreliable in the past.  Therefore, investors should keep an eye on the Dollar’s reaction to tomorrow’s news and data events.

Technically speaking, we’ve formed two new makeshift downtrend lines running through 3/3 levels to give investors an idea of present resistance.  Gold is still well above downtrend lines running through 2/19 and 1/11 highs, meaning there aren’t any foreseeable noteworthy downtrend lines in play right now.  As for the downside, gold has multiple uptrend lines serving as technical cushions along with 3/2 lows.  Additionally, the highly psychological $1100/oz level could serve as a reliable technical cushions should it be tested.

Present Price: $1128.95/oz

Resistances: $1131.07/oz, $1134.88/oz, $1138.68/oz, $1140.96/ oz, $1143.46/oz, $1146.29/oz

Supports: $1126.71/oz, $1123.03/oz, $1120.42/oz, $1117.76/oz, $1114.72/oz, $1110.53/oz

Psychological: $1100/oz, $1125/oz, $1150/oz, January Highs, March Lows

(click to enlarge)

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

The USD/JPY is experiencing a large topside movement during the U.S trading session following yesterday’s sizable pullback in the currency pair.  There are presently no visible headlines giving a concrete reason for the Yen’s relative weakness.  However, there is something at work right now considering the extent of the Yen’s pullback.  Perhaps oversold conditions are driving the USD/JPY higher, though the gains seem a bit abrupt to be derived from oversold factors.  Hence, investors should keep an eye on the news wire for information detailing the Yen’s weakness.  Meanwhile, we are witnessing broad based strength in the Dollar following disappointing U.S. Pending Home Sales data.  Although Japan will be quiet on the data wire tomorrow, the U.S. will release Non-Farm Employment Change and headline Unemployment Rate figures.  Hence, the FX markets could end the trading week on a volatile note.

Technically speaking, today’s recovery is a welcome development considering the extent of the USD/JPY’s decline over the past week or so.  In fact, the USD/JPY almost tested 88 before jolting back up above 89.  However, downward pressure does remain on the currency pair since the BoJ and DPJ are still in disagreement over the necessity of additional liquidity injections.  The USD/JPY still faces multiple downtrend lines along with previous March highs and the highly psychological 90 level.  As for the downside, the USD/JPY does have multiple uptrend lines serving as technical cushions along with 3/2 and 3/3 lows.  Additionally, the psychological 90 level could have an influential role over near-term price action.

Present Price: 89.11

Resistances: 89.14, 89.19, 89.28, 89.35, 89.41, 89.50

Supports: 89.04, 88.93, 88.84, 88.78, 88.71, 88.64, 88.57

Psychological: 90, 89, March highs and lows

(click to enlarge)

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

The Cable is holding strong above it highly psychological level following solid gains yesterday.  UK Services PMI came in much stronger than analyst expectations and registered the highest reading since February 2007.  The recovery in services is exactly what the doctor ordered since the UK is a service-oriented economy.  The Cable also derived strength from a positive reaction to Greece’s new austerity measures.  However, today’s UK HPI number registered a surprising decline, dipping 1.5%, the largest decline since May 2009.  Hence, yesterday’s optimism has been dampened by discouraging housing data.  Speaking of which, U.S. Pending Home Sales just printed much lower than analyst expectations, sending the Dollar higher as investors divest from the risk trade.  Meanwhile, the UK’s BoE meeting came to an uneventful conclusion.  The central bank opted to keep its policy unchanged despite some speculation that they might increase QE funding.  Although, the BoE did leave the door open for more liquidity should conditions warrant action.  It seems the central bank is content with playing it safe before elections considering the reaction we saw in the Pound on Monday after polls revealed a tight race.  The UK will release PPI data tomorrow and investors are expecting a flat reading.  It will be interesting how producer prices fair considering how hot CPI was last month.  Investors will also focus on the U.S. with the release of Non-Farm Employment Change and the headline Unemployment Rate.  However, a negative reading may not have too extreme of an impact since investors expect harsh winter weather may have curtailed hiring.  Regardless, U.S. employment data always has the potential to move FX markets, so investors should keep a close eye on tomorrow’s data wire.

Technically speaking, the Cable has our 1st and 2nd tier uptrend lines serving as technical cushions along with intraday and 3/3 lows.  Additionally, the psychological .150 level could work in the Cable’s favor shout it be retested.  As for the topside, the Cable faces multiple downtrend lines.  Our top tier downtrend line does run through 2/26 highs, meaning a breakout could yield substantial near-term gains should fundamental and psychological factors work in the Cable’s favor.

Present Price: 1.5078

Resistances: 1.5091, 1.5112, 1.5131, 1.5153, 1.5170, 1.5182

Supports: 1.5065, 1.5040, 1.5013, 1.4994, 1.4975

Psychological: 1.50, March lows

(click to enlarge)

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

The EUR/USD is trading off of intraday highs after the ECB kept its benchmark intact and tightened some alternative liquidity measures as expected.  Trichet also added that the ECB feels an IMF intervention to help Greece would be unwise.  Speaking of Greece, citizens are protesting again, this time occupying a governmental financial building.  Today’s protests come a day after Greece announced further austerity measures to pacify other EU members.  Markets greeted Greece’s new austerity measures positively by sending the EUR/USD a leg higher.  However, uncertainties remain in Greece, particularly how citizens well handle the deep budget cuts coming into effect.  Additionally, there remains the possibility of similar debt issues popping up in Italy, Spain, and Portugal.  Regardless, yesterday’s rally in the EUR/USD was encouraging, and the currency pair continues to consolidate above its highly psychological 1.35 area.  Meanwhile, investors are awaiting U.S. Pending Home Sales and Factory Orders data.  U.S. weekly Unemployment Claims printed a bit stronger than anticipated and productivity remains at a heightened level.  The EU was quiet on the data wire today, leaving the ECB in the spotlight.  Although the EU will release German Factory Orders data tomorrow, investors will likely focus on the U.S. with the release of Non-Farm Employment Change data along with the headline Unemployment Rate.  The ADP number printed near expectations yesterday, though the advanced number has a reputation of being somewhat unreliable.  That being said, the FX markets could end the trading week on a volatile note.

Technically speaking, the EUR/USD faces multiple downtrend lines along with 3/3and 2/17 highs.  As for the downside, the EUR/USD has several uptrend lines serving as technical cushions along with 3/3, 2/26, and 3/1 lows.  Meanwhile, the psychological 1.35 area could continue to have an impact on price movements.

Present Price: 1.3632

Resistances: 1.3641, 1.3654, 1.3676, 1.3694, 1.3709, 1.3724, 1.3737

Supports:  1.3619, 1.3606, 1.3589, 1.3574, 1.3557, 1.3542

Psychological: March Lows, 1.35

(click to enlarge)

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Adam Hewison – To many technicians, it is very clear where the equity markets will reverse, and for those folks who don’t follow the technicals, this is a key reversal area in the S&P 500, the NASDAQ, and the Dow.

In my new short video I show you the exact levels that I think will reverse this market, if in fact it’s ever going to reverse to the downside.

Currently the major trend remains positive for all the indices and we would only become negative on the these markets should the key levels I show you  today, are broken.

See the New Video Here…

As always our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements. I would really like to hear back from you with regards to your thoughts on this video.

Your comments are welcome on our blog.
All the best,

Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub