Author: FX_Trdr

By CountingPips.com

The U.S. Dollar has been mixed in forex trading today against most of the major currencies on a limited news day. The commodity currencies have been supported while the European currencies have fallen slightly versus the dollar in today’s trading action.

The dollar has lost ground against the Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Japanese yen today while the American currency has edged slightly higher versus the euro, British pound and the Swiss franc, according currency data by Oanda.

The EUR/USD currency pair is currently lower by about 20 pips after opening the day (00:00GMT) at the 1.3619 exchange rate and has settled into trading near the 1.3600 level. The EUR/USD had fallen to an intraday low at 1.3537 before reversing direction.

The US stock markets have had a winning session today with the Dow gaining by approximately 40 points, the Nasdaq increasing over 14 points and the S&P 500 up by over 5 points. Oil has edged lower to $81.49 while gold is unchange at $1,123.60 per ounce.

Economic news releases today showed that Japan’s leading index increased in January to a 97.1 score from a 94.3 reading in December. This beat market forecasts expecting a score of around 96.6. Out of Europe, Switzerland’s consumer price index edged up by 0.1 percent in February after a 0.1 percent decline in January, according to the Switzerland Federal Statistics Office. On an annual basis, the February cpi increased by 0.9 percent over the February 2009 level.

The United Kingdom’s total trade deficit increased more than expected in January, according to data from National Statistics. The U.K. deficit in goods and services reached £3.8 billion in January following a deficit of £2.6 billion in December. This surpassed market forecasts looking for a deficit of approximately £3.0 billion. Exports, excluding oil and other volatile items, decreased by 6.0 percent in January while imports declined by 1.2 percent. The January trade deficit marked the largest since August 2008 for the U.K.

AUD/USD Chart – The Australian dollar has resumed its recent ascension versus the dollar in trading as the AUD/USD pair bounced off the rising trendline today to reach above the 0.9100 exchange rate today. The AUD/USD has now climbed over 300 pips since February 25th when the pair touched a 0.8800 lowpoint.

The Aussie is marching higher after holding strong despite recent weakness in the Pound and Euro.  The Aussie continues to outperform due to strong Australian fundamentals and the RBA’s tight monetary policy stance as compared to other central banks.  The Aussie is also finding strength after comments from the Fed’s Evans implying that the central bank’s loose monetary policy is here to stay until unemployment improves considerably, which could take quite a while considering how sluggish the U.S. recovery is.  Dovish comments from the Fed are benefitting the Aussie due to the interest rate differential with the possibility of future RBA rate hikes down the line.  Australia will come into focus again tomorrow with the release of Home Loans data.  It will be interesting to see if higher interest rates have weighed on lending.  Additionally, investors will receive key economic data from China over the next couple trading sessions.  Considering China has been driving Australia’s economic recovery, Chinese economic data could have a noticeable impact on the Aussie.  Stronger than expected numbers would likely favor the Aussie’s uptrend, and vice versa.  Meanwhile, there has been chatter that China will appreciate the Yuan in the near-future.  A stronger Yuan could have a negative impact on the Aussie since demand for Australia’s commodities could take a hit.  However, such matters are purely speculation right now and haven’t had much of an impact on the Aussie thus far.  The AUD/USD is testing the patience of our 1st and 2nd tier downtrend lines, which run through the .9250 area.  Hence, a positive development for the risk trade could yield considerable gains in the Aussie.

Technically speaking, the Aussie has multiple uptrend lines serving as technical cushions along with intraday, 3/4lows, and the psychological .90 area.  As for the topside, the Aussie has multiple downtrend lines serving as technical barriers along with March highs and the highly psychological .91 area.  Additionally, previous 2010 highs could serve as a hefty technical barrier should they be tested.

Price: .9104

Resistances: .9104, .9120, .9134, .9146, .9160, .9175

Supports: .9083, .9069, .9054, .9038, .9021, .9008

Psychological: .91, .90, March highs and lows

(click chart to enlarge)

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

Gold has tacked onto yesterday’s 1% pullback in reaction to a broad-based downturn in the risk trade.  Hence, it seems gold is following its negative correlation with the Dollar once again.  On the bright side, gold has avoided a retest of its highly psychological $1100/oz level and remains above the lower band of its trading range.  Hence, the possibility of a return of gold’s upward momentum is not out of the question as investors lock in profits over the past couple trading sessions.  Much will depend on the Dollar’s reaction to upcoming economic data releases from China over the next couple trading sessions.  Strong Chinese data could favor the risk trade and send gold higher, whereas negative data could very well have the opposite effect.  Meanwhile, it will be interesting to see of gold can stabilize above its highly psychological $1100/oz level.  Additionally, our new 1st tier uptrend line could serve as a key support since it runs through February lows, or the $1090/oz area.

Technically speaking, we’ve formed two new makeshift downtrend lines running through 3/2 and 3/3 levels to give investors an idea of present resistance.  Additionally, gold must face previous March highs and the psychological $1050/oz area to the topside.  As for the downside, gold still has multiple uptrend lines serving as technical cushions, highlighted by our 1st tier as we mentioned before.  Furthermore, gold has the psychological $1100/oz level working in its favor should it be tested.

Present Price: $1113.24/oz

Resistances: $1114.21/oz, $1116.63/oz, $1118.75/oz, $1121.05/ oz, $1123.03/oz, $1124.97/oz

Supports: $1112.11/oz, $1110.07/oz, $1107.26/oz, $1104.71/oz, $1101.73/oz, $1099.20/oz

Psychological: $1100/oz, $1150/oz, January Highs, March highs and Lows

(click to enlarge)

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

The USD/JPY is settling following Friday’s impressive run on the heels of better than expected U.S. employment data.  The data wire has been relatively quiet since then, allowing investors to lock in profits ahead of key release from China.  China will print Trade Balance and New Loans data tomorrow followed by Industrial Production, CPI, and a host of other data due during Thursday’s Asia trading session.  Japan will also release Core Machinery Orders tomorrow followed by Final GDP on Thursday.  Hence, activity in the USD/JPY could pick up soon after this breather.  It will be interesting to see if the currency pair can pick up where it left off on Friday or whether it decides to revert back to the pressures of its downtrend.  Weaker than expected data from Japan could help lift the USD/JPY since investors may speculate that the BoJ will be more will to increase liquidity while the Fed stands still amid an improving U.S. economic landscape.  On the other hand, weak Japanese economic data could keep the USD/JPY buoyed around its highly psychological 90 area.  The 90 level has been a struggle for some time now and there’s little reason to believe this will end tomorrow.

Technically speaking, the USD/JPY still faces multiple downtrend lines along with the highly psychological level and previous March highs.  In fact, the USD/JPY still has to deal with February highs should the currency pair experience another near-term topside breakout.  Hence, the USD/JPY faces an uphill battle to the topside.  As for the downside, the USD/JPY has multiple uptrend lines serving as technical cushions along with intraday and 3/5 lows.

Present Price: 89.79

Resistances: 89.81, 89.90, 90.98, 90.04, 90.11, 90.21

Supports: 89.73, 89.64, 89.56, 89.46, 89.39, 89.31

Psychological: 90, March highs

(click chart to enlarge)

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

The Cable is attempting to stabilize right now after dropping below its psychological 1.50 level in the midst of a hefty selloff resulting from weak economic data and cautionary words from Moody’s and Fitch.  Yesterday’s RICS number printed well below analyst expectations, confirming last week’s pullback in the Halifax HPI.  Additionally, today’s UK Trade Balance figure underwent a discouraging setback to the -8 billion mark, signaling that demand for UK exports is not improving despite broad-based weakness in the Pound.  Hence, investors are speculating that the BoE will remain comparatively dovish.  However, we’d like to bring back to mind that last week’s UK Services PMI number experienced a sizable pop, an encouraging development considering the nation’s GDP is highly reliant on the services industry.  As a result, negativity in the Pound could be a bit overdone.  Today Fitch and Moody’s issued statements implying that the UK needs to get its fiscal house in order or face the risk of a downgrade in the nation’s credit rating.  Disconcerting comments from the ratings agencies did place additional downward pressure on the Cable, though they aren’t telling us anything investors don’t already know.  Keep in mind that the Cable’s selloff in the beginning of March resulted from a poll showing a dead heat in the parliamentary election, raising fear that there will be a deadlock when deciding upon whether to tighten fiscal spending.  Hence, the UK’s worrying fiscal situation has been in the headlights for some time now.  Although the data wire has been relatively quiet so far this week, it’ll begin to heat up tomorrow with China releasing New Loans and Trade Balance data over the next couple trading sessions.  Strong data from China could help out the risk trade, whereas negative data could favor the Dollar.  The UK will also release Manufacturing Production data tomorrow, though today’s Trade Balance figure sets the stage for a possible disappointment.

Technically speaking, the Cable has our 1st and 2nd tier uptrend lines serving as technical cushions along with intraday and 3/2 lows.  As for the topside, the Cable faces multiple downtrend lines along with 3/3 and 3/8 highs.  Meanwhile, the psychological 1.50 area could continue to play a role in the Cable’s near-term movements.

Present Price: 1.4952

Resistances: 1.4960, 1.4975, 1.4987, 1.5007, 1.5024, 1.5036

Supports: 1.4941, 1.4924, 1.4901, 1.4885, 1.4870, 1.4851

Psychological: 1.50, March lows

(click to enlarge)

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regarded neither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

The EUR/USD is drifting lower today after the currency pair was unable to break through previous March highs during yesterday’s run higher.  The data wire has been relatively quiet the last couple trading sessions, yet investors are opting to retreat from the risk trade regardless.  Both Moody’s and Fitch cautioned that the UK’s financials are still not in a healthy position, likely yielding today’s downturn in the risk trade.  German Industrial Production printed 5 basis points below analyst expectations, though the result isn’t too bad to get worked up over.  Meanwhile, Sarkozy issued a statement defending Greece and implied that the EU will find means of supporting the country if deemed necessary.  However, Sarkozy’s vote of confidence hasn’t yielded the kind of impact one may expect on the EUR/USD even if the Euro is outperforming the Pound.   The story now becomes whether the EUR/USD can continue to hold above March and February lows despite current selling pressure.  The data wire will begin to heat back up during tomorrow’s Asia trading session with China’s New Loans and Trade Balance due.  Additionally, the EU will print France’s Industrial Production data.  China will likely dominate the headlines and continued strong performance could give the risk trade a jolt to the topside.  Meanwhile, the EUR/USD’s focus remains monthly lows and its psychological 1.35 level.

Technically speaking, the EUR/USD faces multiple downtrend lines along with 3/8 and 3/3 highs.  As for the downside, the EUR/USD has several uptrend lines serving as technical cushions along with 3/5 and 3/2 lows.  Meanwhile, the psychological 1.35 area could continue to have an impact on price movements.

Present Price: 1.3554

Resistances: 1.3557, 1.3574, 1.3589, 1.3606, 1.3619, 1.3654

Supports:  1.3542, 1.3528, 1.3511, 1.3494, 1.3460, 1.3436

Psychological: March and February Lows, 1.35

(click to enlarge)

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

Spot crude oil prices plunged yesterday and continued their fall into the opening of the early morning hours of the U.S. trading session. Driving the price of the commodity lower was a stronger dollar and traders booking profits from a previous surge in the price of spot crude oil.

As the New York market opened, spot crude oil was trading lower at $80.42, from yesterday’s closing price of $81.43

Some traders have been taking profits this morning from the last bullish run that has commenced since the beginning of February. A possible trigger to the selling was the price of crude oil breaking below a significant trend line on the 4-hour chart.

A lack of news may leave spot crude oil trading influenced more by movements of the dollar and equity markets. Spot crude oil prices typically fall when the dollar appreciates. The dollar has currently pushed to a new low for the month, with the EUR/USD trading lower at 1.3350.

The next fundamental data piece that could swing the price of spot crude oil to a different direction is the weekly crude oil inventories from the Energy Information Administration.

A lack of fundamental factors supporting a rising price of spot crude oil could stall the $12 price rally the commodity has experienced since February 5th. Any further rally may need more than the technical support that the charts are giving, but also fundamental support to show a rise in consumption or potential future demand. Until then the upper resistance line of $84 should contain any price rally.

By Adam Hewison – The move down in gold yesterday surprised many traders and flashed an exit signal based on MarketClub’s daily “Trade Triangle” technology. As we have mentioned before, we felt that gold was in a broad trading range and were not optimistic that it would shoot higher.

The action yesterday confirms that we have more of a two-way market. I expect we’ll see further selling on any rallies from this level.

In today’s video, I share with you some thoughts I have on gold based on one important element: how gold energy fields propel this market.

Watch the New Video Now….

All the best,

Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub

P.S. – Take advantage now of Adam’s Free 10-part Professional Email Trading Course or check out the free New Videos on TrendTV.

By Ashley Smith – The USD/ZAR pair has been in a downward trend throughout the past week, dropping from 7.8187 to as low as 7.3670. Yesterday, however, saw the beginning of an upward correction, a trend that is expected to continue.

Below is the 8 hour chart for the pair.

1. The Slow Stochastic chart is exhibiting a fresh bullish cross, signaling that an upward movement is expected.

2. The RSI of the pair is currently floating in the oversold territory, suggesting upward pressure.

3. The MACD is exhibiting an impending bullish cross, signaling a possible imminent upward movement.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Source: ForexYard

Some of the latest price movements in the EUR have reflected a growing sense of optimism in the Euro-Zone, given the mild easing of debt concerns in Greece. Switzerland also appears to be having a positive effect on the region with a recent report which showed retail sales climbing much higher than forecast last month. Investor confidence in the region also appears to have risen slightly better than was anticipated. Whether Europe can sustain this bullish momentum is yet to be seen, but so far the regional currencies appear to be holding their gains.

Economic News

USD – Dollar Trading Lower as Investors Regain Confidence in Euro

Following last Friday’s less-than-inspiring Non-Farm Payrolls data, the US Dollar has entered what appears to be a diverse array of price movements. Against the EUR and CHF, the greenback has entered a range-trading pattern with distinct highs and lows. The EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.3615, down from yesterday’s 1.3680. Against the Yen, the Dollar has started coming back down from last week’s jump. After reaching upwards of 90.60, the pair now trades just above the 90.00 price level.

The USD has taken a downturn lately, following Friday’s modest rise. The easing of debt concerns in Greece has a number of forex market participants buying back into the Euro. Whether Europe can sustain this bullish momentum is yet to be seen, but so far the regional currencies appear to be holding their gains.

Since today’s economic calendar will be void of any news from the United States, the chances of any major market corrections today are slim. However, if we were to correlate the potential movement of Crude Oil with the price of the EUR/USD, there is a chance that we could see some Dollar strengthening as the technical indicators are showing a potential downward move in Crude Oil later today.

EUR – EUR Improving, but Momentum may be Lost with Light News Week

The EUR appears to have leveled off against the majority of its currency rivals. Moderate downturns were experienced against the CAD and AUD, however, with price dips of 60 and 40 pips, respectively. Versus its primary counterpart, the US Dollar, the EUR was trading bearish overall on the day near the price level of 1.3615, down from 1.3700 seen earlier in the trading day. The EUR/USD pair, moreover, appears to be range trading between 1.3450 and 1.3730.

Some of the latest price movements in the EUR have reflected a growing sense of optimism in the Euro-Zone, given the mild easing of debt concerns in Greece. Switzerland also appears to be having a positive effect on the region with a recent report which showed retail sales climbing much higher than forecast last month. Investor confidence in the region also appears to have risen slightly better than was anticipated.

Overall, if the 16-nation Euro-Zone economy continues to provide data which supports the notion of improving economic sentiment, there is a strong chance the EUR will see increasingly strong signals of reversing last month’s losses. However, since we are expecting a light news day, the chances of this happening today are slim. Additionally, this entire week appears to be light on European market news and as such could mean that the EUR will not be in the driver’s seat of its price movements until next week.

JPY – JPY Paring Friday’s Losses

After experiencing a sharp decline against all of its major counterparts on Friday, the JPY now appears to be regaining strength in today’s early trading hours. So far the Yen has climbed 185 pips against the British Pound and is currently trading at the 135.15 price mark. Against the USD the JPY currently sits just above the 90.00 price level but appears to be facing a significant support line at that price.

With a number of machinery and industrial figures being published by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) today, there is a chance that the JPY will witness a higher-than-usual level of volatility in trading later in the afternoon. Significant price barriers are being touched on almost every JPY pair. If a breach occurs, the JPY could jump to completely pare the losses made last Friday. But if the JPY cannot gain the necessary momentum, there could be a downturn on the way.

Crude Oil – Crude Oil Testing Significant Price Barrier

Oil prices have continued to rise following last week’s sudden surge beyond the $80 price mark. A number of analysts have estimated that this rise may continue given the upcoming onset of the driving season in the United States and subsequent jump in gasoline consumption. However, some have begun anticipating a downward turn given the conclusion of the colder winter months and impending drop in heating oil consumption.

With this contradictory information, what we can deduce is that the $81.50 price mark represents a significant psychological barrier. Should Crude Oil prices break beyond this resistance line, there’s a chance that the rising price could continue. If it fails to break through, on the other hand, commodity traders should see oil prices declining back towards the $80 price mark before the middle of the week.

Technical News

EUR/USD

While most indicators for the pair are floating in neutral territory, a modest upward correction may take place today as the 2 hour chart RSI is floating near the oversold territory and a bullish cross is evident on the 4 hour chart’s Slow Stochastic. Going long with tight stops may be advised for today.

GBP/USD

The pair may be seeing a bullish correction today as the hourly, 2 hour and daily RSI are floating in the oversold territory indicating an upcoming upward movement. Furthermore a bullish cross is evident on the 4 hour and 2 hour charts’ Slow Stochastic. Going long for the day may be a good option.

USD/JPY

The pair seems to be exhibiting mixed signals at the moment with the 4 hour and 8 hour charts’ RSI floating in the overbought territory, while the hourly and 2 hour RSI floating in the oversold territory. Furthermore, a bullish cross is evident on the 2 hour chart’s Slow Stochastic, while a bearish cross is evident on the daily chart’s Slow Stochastic. Waiting on a clearer direction for the pair may be advised for today.

USD/CHF

The pair seems to be range trading at the moment, with most indicators floating in neutral territory. A slight bearish correction might take place, however, as a bearish cross is evident on the 4 hour chart’s Slow stochastic and the 2 hour RSI is floating near the overbought territory, indicating and impending downward movement. Going short with tight stops may be advised for today.

The Wild Card

GBP/AUD

The pair’s recent downward trend may be seeing some correction today as the hourly, 2 hour, 4 hour and daily RSI are floating in the oversold territory and a bullish cross is evident on the hourly and 2 hour charts’ Slow Stochastic. A breach of the lower Bollinger Band is also evident on the 4 hour chart. Forex traders are advised to go long for today.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.