Author: FX_Trdr

By Fast Brokers – The Cable has bounced back above its psychological 1.50 level after Consumer Inflation expectations came in at 2.5%, a basis point above analyst expectations.  The price gains we’ve seen in the UK over the past month could keep the BoE at bay, even if the central bank has stated that the price pop is just a result of a return of the VAT.  Regardless, investors are sending the Cable higher in speculation that the BoE would likely hold off any increases in QE until it is sure rising prices are a temporary affair.  Keep in mind that the BoE places extra emphasis on inflation, so pricing data usually has the potential to move the Pound.  The U.S. Trade Balance revealed a smaller deficit than anticipated while Unemployment Claims logged a 6k decline.  The initial reaction was negative for the risk trade, though the Dollar is pulling back again as we speak.  In the precious metals sector investors should keep an eye on gold.  Gold has tumbled back to its psychological $1100/oz level.  Though the Dollar’s correlation with gold hasn’t been reliable lately, it will be interesting to see whether this pullback forebodes a Greenback movement across the board.  Attention will remain focused on the U.S. tomorrow with the release of key Retail Sales and UoM Consumer Sentiment data.  Strong U.S. consumption figures could breathe some life into the risk trade.  On the other hand, since the EU and UK have been mired in uncertainty lately, strong U.S. data could have the opposite effect and send investors scurrying towards the Dollar.  Therefore, it will be interesting to see how the Dollar reacts tomorrow since correlations have been a bit unreliable as of late.

Technically speaking, the Cable has multiple uptrend lines serving as technical cushions along with intraday and 3/10 lows.  As for the topside, the Cable faces multiple downtrend lines along with intraday and 3/4 highs.  Our 2nd tier downtrend line could serve as a key barrier since it runs through previous March highs, or the psychological 1.52 area.  Meanwhile, the psychological 1.50 area could become a technical cushion should the Cable continue to solidify above.

Present Price: 1.5023

Resistances: 1.5024, 1.5036, 1.5054, 1.5066, 1.5076, 1.5085

Supports: 1.5003, 1.4989, 1.4980, 1.4971, 1.4959

Psychological: 1.50, March highs and lows

(click chart to enlarge)

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Fast Brokers – Greece experienced another wave of protests today as the government looks to implement its aggressive austerity package.  However, the Euro has shown little reaction to the protests since Greece is still expected to go ahead with the austerity measures despite public disapproval.  Meanwhile, the EUR/USD is hold strong within its tight trading range as it stands strong above 1.35 and previous March lows.  The EUR/USD has shown quite a bit of resilience over the past month considering the extent of the currency pair’s downturn during January and the beginning of February.  It will be interesting to see if the EUR/USD can manage a stop side breakout from this new base over the near-term, or whether another wave of selling disables the currency pair.  Overall, the longer the EUR/USD can consolidate with a slight upward trajectory, the better off the currency pair could be in the medium-term.  However, we will have to wait and see how events unfold.  Meanwhile, our downtrend lines are drawing nearer, meaning the EUR/USD has the potential for some accelerated topside movements should fundamentals and/or psychological cooperate.  We also take note that the EUR/USD is getting closer to our 5th tier downtrend line, which runs through the 1.4550 area.  Hence, this gives you an idea of the kind of topside potential the currency pair has.  The EU will continue to be quiet on the data wire for the remainder of the week, meaning tomorrow’s U.S. Retail Sales and UoM releases will likely garner the spotlight.

Technically speaking, the EUR/USD faces multiple downtrend lines along with 3/8 and 3/3 highs.  Our 4th tier downtrend line could serve as a key resistance since it runs through 2/9 highs, or the 1.38 area.  As we explained before, our 5th tier could also serve as a key barrier in regards to the medium-term outlook for the EUR/USD since it runs through the 1.4550 area.  As for the downside, the EUR/USD has several uptrend lines serving as technical cushions along with 3/5 and 3/2 lows.  Meanwhile, the psychological 1.35 area could continue to have an impact on price movements.
Present Price: 1.3630

Resistances: 1.3637, 1.3654, 1.3672, 1.3691, 1.3713, 1.3733

Supports:  1.3618, 1.3602, 1.3579, 1.3559, 1.3542, 1.3528

Psychological: March and February Lows, 1.35

(click chart to enlarge)

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By CountingPips.com

The United States trade deficit decreased unexpectedly in January as imports fell at a faster pace than exports, according to a release by the Commerce Department today. The U.S. trade deficit decreased by $2.6 billion to a total international trade deficit of $37.3 billion in January following a deficit of $39.9 billion in December. Today’s trade deficit numbers surpassed the market forecasts that were expecting the deficit would rise to approximately $41.0 billion for the month.

January’s trade in goods deficit fell by $2.5 billion to a total goods deficit of $49 billion while the surplus in services rose by $0.1 billion to a total surplus of $12.1 billion.

On an annual basis, the U.S. trade deficit is $0.4 billion higher than the January 2009 level as exports have increased by 15 percent ($18.7 billion) while imports have increased 11.9 percent ($19.1 billion) annually.

Contributing to the decreased deficit level was a decline in January imports by $3.1 billion from December to a total of $180.0 billion. Imports had increased for four straight months before January’s turnaround. U.S. exports declined for the month to a total of $142.7 billion which was a decrease of $0.5 billion from December’s total.

The politically sensitive U.S. trade deficit with China edged up in January, despite the overall deficit decrease. The deficit with China rose to $18.3 billion in January from a deficit of $18.1 billion in December. Other notable U.S. trade deficits were with the European Union at $2.8 billion, Japan at $3.3 billion, Mexico at $4.6 billion, OPEC at $7.2 billion and Canada at $3.9 billion.

U.S. trade surpluses with other countries for January included Australia at $0.9 billion, Hong Kong at $1.6 billion and Belgium at $0.3 billion.

Weekly Jobless Claims fall by 6,000.

A separate government release by the U.S. Labor Department showed that weekly U.S. jobless claims decreased in the week that ended on March 6th. New jobless claims edged down to a total of 462,000 unemployed workers, a decline over the prior week by 6,000 workers. The jobless claims data was right in line with expectations as market forecasts predicted a fall to 460,000 jobless claims. The 4-week moving average of unemployed workers rose by 5,000 from the prior week to a total of 475,500.

Meanwhile, workers seeking continuing claims for unemployment benefits for the week ending February 27th increased for the week. Continuing claims rose by 37,000 workers to a total of 4,558,000 unemployed workers. The four week moving average of continuing claims showed no change for the week to remain at 4,581,000 workers.

Forms IBcoalition.org and proposes fair industry-based alternatives to regulations

Boston, MA – March 11, 2010 – Today, a group of leading Forex Introducing Brokers (IBs) announced the formation of www.ibcoalition.org, an organization comprised of independent, regulated Forex Introducing Brokers who have joined together to challenge the proposed CFTC rules titled “Regulation of Off-Exchange Retail Foreign Exchange Transactions and Intermediaries,” 75 FR 3282 (Jan. 20, 2010).

The main mission of the IB coalition is to suggest significant changes to the proposed CFTC regulations. The IBs currently participating in www.ibcoalition.org are ATC Brokers (NFA Member #0358522), BackBay FX (NFA Member #0388617), Currensee (NFA Member #0403251), Fast Trading Services LLC d/b/a FastBrokers.com (NFA Member #0342002), Forex On The Go, LLC (NFA Member #409594) and Gecko Financial Services, Inc. (NFA Member #0402367).

“We formed IBcoalition.org to come together as regulated IB businesses to oppose the proposed CFTC regulations that, if passed, will significantly change our businesses,” said Dave Lemont CEO Currensee.   “Those of us in the IB Coalition are, we believe, the types of firms the Commission should be supporting as alternatives to the fraudulent unregistered solicitors the Commission has spent so much time and effort shutting down over the years. Unfortunately, though, in its zeal to curtail fraudulent solicitation practices, the Commission is proposing a set of rules that needlessly restrict legitimate Forex activities and will, if adopted, seriously undermine our ability to operate successfully as regulated alternatives. We welcome the opportunity to meet with the Commission and present our comments directly.”

The pending CFTC rulings propose that a Forex IB must enter into a guarantee agreement with a CFTC-regulated Forex Dealer Member (FDM), along with a requirement that the Forex IB may be a party to only one guarantee agreement at a time. By asking IBs to enter into an exclusive arrangement with only one FDM, IBs are limited in where they can refer customers, which creates a conflict of interest and is not aligned with the best interest of the customer. Independent IBs bring a valuable service to the retail trader. By carefully matching a trader’s style and needs with the right broker as it relates to spreads, trading platforms and customer service offerings, independent IBs help retail customers make the decision that’s right for them. Furthermore, these proposed rule changes are contradictory to the current CFTC policy in place for the on-exchange futures market, which allows independent IBs to introduce business to multiple Futures Commission Merchants thus enabling IBs to do what is in the best interest of their clients. The IB Coalition views the CFTC proposed rules as needlessly restricting legitimate Forex activities and capable of pushing Forex business off-shore, creating new opportunities for non-regulated or fraudulent businesses who don’t care about U.S. regulatory requirements.

The IB Coalition recently submitted a 10-page letter to the CFTC and, among other points, suggested the following changes to the proposed rulings

• First, the IB Coalition urged the CFTC to revise the proposed rules to permit a Forex IB to operate either as an independent IB subject to the same minimum capital requirements that apply to a futures IB or as a guaranteed IB.
• Second, the IB Coalition asked the CFTC to undertake a study of the retail Forex markets to assure that the rules it ultimately adopts are based on a solid factual understanding of the markets and are tailored accordingly.
• Third, the IB Coalition proposed the CFTC defer to NFA to set appropriate leverage restrictions as it relates to the proposed 10:1 leverage. An onerous leverage restriction, such as this, creates opportunities for unregistered fraudulent schemes to exploit U.S. customers is contrary to the public interest.

“As an IB, our job is to be objective and help the trader make the best decision about which broker best suits their needs,” says Stephen Leahy, President Back Bay FX. “The proposed CFTC rulings compromise the objectivity we are able to bring to our clients and completely disregards the best interest of the customer. Joining forces with the other IBs participating in IBcoalition.org is an important step in articulating our concerns both from a business and consumer-protection perspective. We welcome other IBs to join us in opposing the CFTC proposed rulings as it is currently written.”

The IB Coalition urges traders to make their voice heard by submitting their comments at www.ibcoalition.org.

About IBcoalition.org
IBcoalition.org is an organization comprised of independent, regulated Forex Introducing Brokers who have joined together to challenge the proposed CFTC rules titled “Regulation of Off-Exchange Retail Foreign Exchange Transactions and Intermediaries,” 75 FR 3282 (Jan. 20, 2010). The main mission of the IB coalition is to suggest significant changes to the proposed CFTC regulations and a number of Introducing Brokers have already joined the group. To get more information or find out how to join, please visit www.ibcoalition.org.

For more information, please contact:

Jenna Brown
Inkhouse Media + Marketing
781.791.4558
[email protected]

By Finexo.com

Market Notes:

New Zealand’s Interest Rate has left unchanged at 2.50% as expected and the dovish comments of RBNZ had this effect and weakened the NZD.

Today we have a Swiss decision at 12:00. As a result of the recently published data it is however likely to adjust SNB’s inflation and economic outlook slightly upwards.

The final UK budget for the fiscal year 2010/11 will be presented on 24th March. Weak economic data such as yesterday’s industrial production are therefore particularly uncomfortable. As a result the period of weakness in GBP is likely to continue and the 0.9150 mark in EUR-GBP is likely to be re-challenged.

Daily Trends* & Charts

^{*relevant for now}

Watch the Fundamentals!(GMT time)

Forex Market Review & Analysis by Finexo.com

Disclaimer: Trading the foreign exchange (Forex) carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors.

By Anton Eljwizat – In the last few weeks trading, the GBP/AUD experienced much bearishness, as it stands now at 1.6347. However as I demonstrate below, it seems that the pair’s bearish run may have run of steam, and a bullish correction could be underway soon. Forex traders have the opportunity to wait for the upward breach on the hourlies and go long in order to ride out the impending wave.

• Below is the daily chart of the GBP/AUD currency pair.

• The technical indicators used are the Slow Stochastic, Relative Strength Index (RSI) and MACD.

• Point 1: The Slow Stochastic indicates a fresh bullish cross, signaling that the next move may be in an upward direction.

• Point 2: The RSI signals that the price of this pair currently floats in the over-sold territory, suggesting upward pressure.

• Point 3: The MACD indicates an impending bullish cross, signaling that the next move may be in an upward direction.

GBP/AUD Daily Chart

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Source: ForexYard

Following yesterday’s bearish downturn for the U.S. Dollar, the greenback will try and recover some of its losses with the help of several critical economic indicators today. Both the U.S. Trade Balance Report and this week’s unemployment claims are likely to have an impact on Dollar positions. Whether or not they can provide USD with the necessary momentum to reverse its current direction is yet to be known.

Economic News

USD – Dollar Stuck in Downward Trend Ahead of Busy Trading Day

After taking some serious losses against several of its major counterparts in trading yesterday, the Dollar remains in its bearish cycle as investor risk appetite has returned. EUR/USD shot up over 50 pips yesterday before slightly retreating to its current level of 1.3635. GBP/USD made similar gains, increasing over 60 pips throughout the afternoon. The pair is currently trading at 1.4955. In overnight trading, the Yen continued to make gains on the greenback with the pair currently trading around the 90.28 level.

Analysts do not appear to be optimistic about the Dollar’s prospects in trading today. At 13:30 GMT, both the U.S. and Canadian trade balance figures are set to be released. While positive figures are forecasted for Canada, the U.S. will likely have a negative trade figure. If the predictions are true, traders can expect USD/CAD to go down in afternoon trading.

Also set to be released today are the weekly American unemployment figures. Analysts are cautiously optimistic regarding the current employment situation in the U.S., and they are currently forecasting a figure of around 456K. If true, this would signal a slight improvement over last week, and may lead to a slight Dollar rebound. Still, various Chinese indicators continue to stir risk appetite among investors. Forex traders will want to pay careful attention to their Dollar pairs as the day progresses.

EUR – Euro Attempts to Maintain Gains on Dollar and Yen

With risk taking apparently on the rise, the Euro is currently capitalizing on the global economic climate and maintaining its gains against its major rivals. The Euro was bullish throughout the day yesterday, and faired particularly well against the Yen. EUR/JPY, up over 100 pips from this time yesterday, is currently trading around the 123.19 level. Comments yesterday from European officials regarding Greece gave the impression that the current debt crisis may finally be coming to an end.

Today, there are no significant Euro news events. Still, that does not mean that Euro pairs will not see some activity in trading today. The British Consumer Inflation Expectation Report as well as the Swiss short-term interest rate report will likely lead to volatility for both the EUR/GBP and EUR/CHF pairs. Traders will want to pay particular attention to the Swiss report, as CHF has been performing fairly well against the Euro as of late.

JPY – Yen Takes Losses Following Bank Announcement

Following yesterday’s announcement that the Japanese central bank may ease monetary policy in the coming weeks, the Yen traded bearish against several of its counterparts throughout the day. USD/JPY moved up in afternoon trading before retreating slightly to its current level of 90.32. CHF/JPY shot up over 100 pips throughout the day yesterday before correcting itself. At this time, the pair is trading around the 84.35 level.

Today, the Yen will likely maintain its current course, especially as risk taking seems to be the predominant sentiment among investors. Still, if the negative forecasts regarding the U.S. Trade Balance Report prove true, JPY could make some gains in afternoon trading against the greenback.

Crude Oil – Oil Prices Fall as Stockpiles Remain High

Crude oil prices fell dramatically to their current level of $81.55, following OPEC’s announcement that it will continue to pump above its stated quota for the foreseeable future. The announcement caused Crude to fall, largely out of fears that supplies would remain high for the time being. Yesterday, prices rallied after U.S. crude inventories came in slightly lower then expected. The commodity was not able to maintain its bullish trend, and subsequently fell in evening and overnight trading.

Today, the price of crude will largely be determined by which way the Dollar moves. If USD is able to recoup some of its losses from yesterday, traders can expect oil prices to continue to fall. On the other hand, if the greenback continues to fall, crude may see an upward correction.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The daily chart is showing mixed signals with its Slow Stochastic fluctuating at the neutral territory. However, the weekly Chart’s RSI is already floating in the oversold territory indicating that a bullish correction might take place in the nearest future. When the upward breach occurs, going long with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.

GBP/USD

The price of this pair appears to be floating in the over-sold territory on the weekly chart’s RSI indicating an upward correction may be imminent. The upward direction on the daily chart’s Momentum oscillator also supports this notion. Going long with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.

USD/JPY

The typical range trading on the 4-hour chart continues. The weekly chart RSI is floating in neutral territory. However, there is a bearish cross forming on the daily chart’s Slow Stochastic indicating a bearish correction might take place in the nearest future. Going short might be a wise choice.

USD/CHF

The pair has been range-trading for a while now, with no specific direction. The Daily chart’s Slow Stochastic providing us with mixed signals. The 4 hour charts do not provide a clear direction as well. Waiting for a clearer sign on the hourlies chart might be a good strategy today.

The Wild Card

Gold

Gold prices are once again dropping, and it is currently traded around $1107.45 an ounce. And now, the 8-hour chart’s RSI is giving bullish signals, indicating that gold prices might go up. This might give forex traders a great opportunity to enter a very popular trend.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Gold shed more than 30$ from its price in recent days settling around 1,108$, as Greek debt woes and lower risk appetite loomed. Although in the FX arena the Dollar trade rather stabilized with the Euro and the Sterling rebounding from their lows Gold remained    under pressure. China has been a dominant factor in the latest Gold selloff releasing a statement from Chinese officials that they prefer to buy US debt over Gold. China as the world’s largest Gold producer and the holder more than 2 Trillion Dollars in reserves has a rather strong effect on Gold sentiment. Such a statement from China shacked confidence of Gold buyers pushing them to trim profits. In addition ETF holdings one of the strongest indicators of Gold demand also pointed weakness for Gold with figures showing softening demand for the Metal.

Sentiment for the metal eases– Usually correlation between Dollar strength and Gold performance is in negative divergence meaning Gold price would move higher when the Dollar was falling and the other way around. One of the strongest arguments of Gold buyers when Gold reached to its record above 1,200$ was that Gold price has in fact risen in all currencies terms thus proving Gold is not driven purely by a weaker Dollar but by strong underline demand. The current price movements show that when most currencies edged higher against the Dollar Gold continued to slide lower, suggesting fundamental weakness is behind the recent fall in Gold price. In our latest review on the metal we have suggested the possibility of a Gold rebound and indeed after a rather volatile trade Gold edged from 1,124$ and topped out around 1,144$ an ounce, a 20$ gain. However with the possibility of china moving into more tightening and Gold falling below the support of the bullish trend line at 1,110$ we suggest cautiousness with the possibility of Gold resuming its major bearish trend rising.

Daily Forex Market Analysis provided by eToro

Disclaimer: Trading in the Foreign Exchange market might carry potential rewards, but also potential risks. You must be aware of the risks and are willing to accept them in order to trade in the foreign exchange market. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

© 2009 eToro Blog.

After touching the upper border of the falling price channel, GBPUSD dropped from 1.5195 and formed a short term cycle top on 4-hour chart. Deeper decline to test 1.4784 support is expected, a breakdown below this level will indicate that the downtrend from 1.6456 (Jan 19 high) has resumed, then another fall could be seen to 1.4500 area. Key resistance is at 1.5195, only rise above this level will indicate that the fall from 1.6456 has completed, then the following uptrend could take price further to 1.5400-1.5500 area.

Daily Forex Forecast

Gold found support in our 1st tier uptrend line yesterday and has bounced back from Tuesday lows, avoiding a retest of $1100/oz in the process.  Gold is now back in the middle of its present trading range as gains in the Aussie and Loonie are counterbalanced by overall weakness in the Cable and Euro.  That being said, it will be interesting to see how the Cable and EUR/USD react to tomorrow’s key data sets from China, Australia and the U.S.  Should the Cable and EUR/USD manage a solid risk rally and the Aussie continue its upward trajectory, then gold may receive the boost it needs to challenge our downtrend lines.  On the other hand, should the Aussie and Loonie falter and the Cable continue its slide, then gold may follow suit due to correlative influences.  Regardless, activity could pick up over the next 24-48 hours considering the wealth of data we’ll be receiving from the Pacific and U.S.

Technically speaking, gold faces multiple downtrend lines along with 3/5 and 3/3 highs.  Furthermore, the psychological $1150/oz level could serve as a technical barrier should it be reached.   As for the downside, gold still has multiple uptrend lines serving as technical cushions, highlighted by our 1st tier which runs through 2/23 lows.  Furthermore, gold has the psychological $1100/oz level working in its favor should it be tested.
Present Price: $1122.50/oz

Resistances: $1123.85/oz, $1125.97/oz, $1128.16/oz, $1130.35/ oz, $1132.66/oz, $1135.91/oz

Supports: $1120.61/oz, $1118.06/oz, $1116.20/oz, $1114.26/oz, $1111.60/oz, $1108.32/oz

Psychological: $1100/oz, $1150/oz, January Highs, March highs and Lows

(click chart to enlarge)

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.