Author: FX_Trdr

By Finexo.com

Past Events
• GBP Claimant Count Change, out at -32.9K versus expected -7.6K, prior -40.1K (revised)
• GBP Unemployment Rate, out at 8.0% versus expected 7.8%, prior 7.8%
• GBP Monetary Policy Committee meeting minutes
• CAD Wholesale Sales, out at -1.2% versus expected 1.0%, prior 2.4% (revised)

Upcoming Events
• USD PPI m/m (1230 GMT)
• USD  Unemployment Claims (1230 GMT)
• USD Existing Home Sales (1400 GMT)
• EUR ECB President Trichet addressing European Central Bank Conference (1100 GMT)
• GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (0830GMT)
• GBP Retail Sales m/m (0830GMT)
• CAD Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report (1430 GMT)

Market Commentary
Yesterday the pound rose against both the euro and the US dollar as UK claimant counts fell more than economists forecast in March, giving a boost to Prime Minister Gordon Brown as he fights the tightest UK general election for more than 30 years. The currency gained 0.31% against the US dollar to close at GBP 1.54081. It rose by 0.66% against the euro to close at GBP 0.86861.

The number of people collecting jobless benefits fell 32,900 from February to 1.54 million, the Office for National Statistics said yesterday. A drop of 10,000 had been expected. In February, the number of jobless claims fell by 40,100 instead of the 32,300 drop originally reported. The decline was the largest since June 1997. In March, the claimant count rate fell to 4.8%, the lowest since June last year, from 4.9%.

A separate measure of unemployment climbed to a 16-year high. The 8% unemployment rate, up from 7.8% in the previous period, compares with 9.7% in the US and 10% in the 16-nation euro zone.

Polls published Tuesday showed Labour slipping into third place after a surge in support for the Liberal Democrats following the first debate on April 15th. The results mean Labour could win the most seats in Parliament and remain in power with the support of the Liberal Democrats.

Sterling has been weakened by market speculation that the general election may produce no clear majority in Parliament. A minority government would have difficulty pushing through measures to tackle the budget deficit, which currently rivals that of Greece, at almost 12% of GDP.

The report may fuel speculation that the Bank of England will have to raise interest rates at a faster pace than previously thought as inflation climbed to 3.4% last month. Some central bank officials showed concern at the prospect of a prolonged bout of faster inflation when they met earlier this month, according to the minutes of their meeting published yesterday. The central bank has kept its interest rate at 0.5% since March 2009 to bolster growth.

U.K. annual consumer-price growth accelerated to 3.4% last month, according to data released on Tuesday, pushing close to the 14-month high of 3.5% reached in January. The Bank of England has a mandate to target inflation at 2% and keep it within 1 percentage point of that goal.

Bank of England officials, who are trying to balance fostering the economic recovery and the threat of accelerating inflation, have suspended comment on policy before the May 6th general election as Prime Minister Gordon Brown tries to win over voters on his record of managing the economy.

In Europe yesterday the Greek government’s cost of borrowing hit a new high as talks on the rescue plan began. The interest rate on 10-year government bonds hit 8.3% – the highest level since the euro was introduced. Rates rose as it became clear that talks over the aid package may not be finished until days before a multi-billion-euro loan is due for repayment.
Many observers now feel it will be a question of when not if, Greece needs the aid.
Greece’s finance ministry said the talks with the European Commission and the IMF would take about two weeks, with a joint text expected to be issued on around May 15th. On May 19th, Greece is due to repay investors an 8.5 billion euro bond.

In a statement on Tuesday, Greece’s finance ministry, said: “The discussions concern a three-year program of economic policies… which can be supported with financial assistance from euro zone members and the IMF should Greek authorities decide to request the activation of the mechanism.”

The talks, will discuss the precise terms, conditions, and interest rates that would apply if Greece asks for the aid. If all sides can agree to the terms required it should clear the way to a quick payout of up to 45 billion euro on offer from the EU and IMF.

Earlier this week Athens raised almost 2 billion euro by selling three-month Treasury bills. However, even though the fund-raising was successful the interest rate was 3.65%, more than twice the level at which Greece raised similar short-term funds in January. Greece has said its priority is to raise much-needed funds on the financial markets. But the higher the yield on Treasury issues, the bigger Greece’s debt-burden becomes.

Euro zone partners have offered over 30 billion euro in aid with a further 10 billion euro to come from the IMF. However speculation persists that even this might not be enough. On Tuesday, Axel Weber, a member of the European Central Bank governing council, denied reports that Greece might need as much as 80 billion euro to avoid default.
The euro fell against the pound and the US dollar yesterday. It dropped 0.35% on the UD dollar to close at EUR 1.33870. It fell 0.66% against sterling to close at GBP 0.86861.

USD/EUR Chart

Yesterday in Canada brought news that wholesale sales unexpectedly declined in February, the first drop in four months, led by automobiles and machinery. Sales declined 1.2% to C$43.8 billion (US$43.7 billion) according to figures released by Statistics Canada. Economists had expected a 1% increase.

Four of the seven wholesale categories recorded decreases in February. Motor vehicle sales fell 5.3%, the first decline since August. Machinery, equipment and supplies sales fell 2.8% while personal and household goods sales fell 1.5%.
Wholesale sales have gained 8.5% over the last year as companies sold goods out of their inventories to meet rising demand. The Bank of Canada said on Tuesday that it will begin raising interest rates to keep inflation in check as the economic rebound has been faster than expected.

Wholesale inventories rose 0.1% in February, the first increase since November 2008. The ratio of wholesale inventories-to-sales rose to 1.17 from 1.15, the first increase since August.
The agency began using a new sample of wholesalers in yesterday’s report and made other revisions to its data. Using the revised data the agency said January’s wholesale sales rose 2.4%. Last month it had said wholesale sales rose 3%, the fastest in three years.

The Canadian dollar closed the day still above parity with the US dollar after hitting a low of CAD 1.00119 during trading, it closed the day down 0.10% on yesterdays close at CAD 0.99895.

Forex Market Review & Analysis by Finexo.com

Disclaimer: Trading the foreign exchange (Forex) carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information and opinions contained on this website are to be used for general informational purposes only and do not consitute investment advice.

By Forex Yard – The euro continued to decline during the European trading session despite new meetings between Greek government leaders, the EU, and the IMF. The pound was also trading lower following poor monthly retail sales numbers.

The EUR/USD fell to 1.3300 from an opening day price of 1.3387. This comes after the spread on Greek government bonds rose to a record high against German bunds. German bunds are considered to be Europe’s best measurement of risk. Traders have also been eyeing Portugal government debt as the bond’s spreads have also jumped to uncharacteristic high levels against the bund.

The pound was unable to hold its earlier gains following weaker than expected British monthly retail sales data. Retail sales for the month of March fell by 0.4% on market expectations of a 0.7% rise. As such the GBP/USD fell to 1.5374 from 1.5425.

This afternoon is flooded with U.S. data releases. At 12:30 GMT U.S. PPI and weekly unemployment claims are set to be released, along with existing home sales data at 14:00GMT. Positive data for the U.S. economy may help to extend the dollar’s gains into the New York trading session. The EUR/USD has found support at the 1.3330 price level. The next major support level for the pair rests at 1.3280, the bottom of this month’s earlier consolidation pattern.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By Russell, ForexYard – The EUR/NOK has been weakening significantly. As such, the 4-hour chart displays a falling wedge pattern.

The pattern shows a two converging trend lines that will eventually come together. Traders can see the downward slant of the pattern with the price action making contact with both the upper and lower borders.

Typically wedge patterns signal a continuation of the existing trend. However, as this wedge pattern runs in the same direction of the trend, this can be considered a potential reversal of the downward sloping trend. Therefore, this is a bullish chart pattern.

To trade the pattern, traders will want to wait for a breakout of the EUR/NOK of no more than 50 pips above the upper line of the chart pattern and go long.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By Anton, ForexYard

• Below is the 4-hour chart of the GBP/CHF currency pair.

• The technical indicators used are the Slow Stochastic, Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Williams Percent Range.

• Point 1: There is a “doji” candlestick that has formed on the chart, indicating that a reversal should take place.

• Point 2: The Slow Stochastic indicates a bearish cross, signaling that the next move maybe in a downward direction.

• Point 3: The Williams Percent Range shows that this pair was heavily over-bought peaked near the highest mark it could reach, and then turned a corner and now stands in a bearish posture.

• Point 4: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) signals that the price of this pair currently floats in the over-bought territory, indicating downward pressure.

GBP/CHF 4-Hour Chart

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Source: Forex Yard

The grounding of air travel in Europe has put strong downward pressure onto the Euro-Zone’s common currency. Analysts are putting losses so far around $1.7 billion, and declaring that European regional airlines likely suffered more than the major airlines of the United States. With concerns over Greece’s recovery and bailout still vividly on the minds of financial leaders, the volcanic eruption in Iceland appears to have come at the worst possible time for the EUR.

Economic News

USD – USD Mixed against Most, but Strongly Outpacing the EUR

The US Dollar continued its week-long climb against the EUR, reaching a high of 1.3357 as of this morning’s early trading hours. Against other currencies the greenback appears to be showing mixed results. The USD/JPY pair ended the day lower, with a price near 92.75. Versus the Canadian Dollar, the USD has once again fallen beneath parity with its northerly neighbor, currently trading at 0.9997.

Despite optimistic sentiment in Europe, emanating from such figures as Tuesday’s positive German ZEW Economic Sentiment reading, the 16-nation single currency persists in a sustained downward movement. This has helped the USD gain steadily despite underperforming against most other currency pairs.

With a series of news events coming out of Europe today, it is likely that we could see a turnaround in the 16-nation single currency’s fortunes. This will only be the case should the figures provide a strong enough reason for believing that an economic recovery has fought its way through the latest string of events. Otherwise, the USD could likely continue its bullish run.

EUR – Volcanic Ash Disrupts Transportation, Economy; Depresses EUR Strength

A sad string of events has led the EUR onto a downtrodden path this past week. Suffering losses against every major currency pair, the 16-nation single currency could be looking to make strong gains with today’s heavy news day.

The grounding of air travel in Europe has put severe pressure onto the Euro-Zone’s common currency. Analysts are putting the losses so far around $1.7 billion, and declaring that regional airlines likely suffered more than the major airlines of the United States. With concerns over Greece’s recovery and bailout still vividly on the minds of financial leaders, the volcanic eruption in Iceland appears to have come at the worst possible time.

Many investors in the forex market now appear to be claiming that the EUR may need more than one day of positive news events to turn around its most recent misfortune. Today’s manufacturing and service data from the Euro-Zone could be a nice jumping off point for a rebound, but if figures come out below expectations traders should anticipate the continuation of the EUR’s recent losses.

JPY – Yen Gaining from Risk Aversion in Europe

The Japanese Yen experienced mixed results yesterday against its primary currency rivals. As of today’s early Asian trading hours, the USD/JPY pair has begun a minor descent and currently trades at 92.83, with what appears to be further sell pressure being applied. No doubt the financial troubles currently rocking Europe are leading to a rise in risk aversion which is helping to prop up the safe-haven Dollar and Yen.

In other news, however, the JPY is in fact gaining ground economically with all news emanating from the island economy beating forecasts. With recent declines in Europe, positive data, and a risk averse economic environment, it appears the JPY may be on course to continue gaining throughout the trading day. That is, unless the figures coming out of Britain and the Euro-Zone reverse the fortunes of the region and boost risk appetite.

Crude Oil – Spot Crude Oil Prices Lower from Resurgent Dollar

Economic woes seem to be putting pressure on the price of Crude Oil lately. The transportation fiasco in Europe combined with depressed risk appetite has pushed safe-haven investments such as the US Dollar and Japanese Yen back into a bullish posture. The result is that commodity prices seem to be coming down off their recent highs. The price of spot crude has recently fallen from above $86 a barrel to as low as $83.20 as of this morning.

As with the forex market, should today’s manufacturing and service data from the Euro-Zone come in better than expected, we could see a turnaround in the EUR, which will suppress the recent gains made by safe-haven currencies as well as help commodities pare some of their losses. Commodities traders should be on the look out for signals of a EUR recovery, which will likely lead to short term boosts in commodities such as Crude Oil.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The cross has been dropping for the past week now, as it now stands at the 1.3390 level. The Slow Stochastic of the daily chart shows a fresh bullish cross, indicating that an upward correction is imminent. This view is also supported by the RSI of the hourly chart. Going long with tight stops may turn out to be the right choice today.

GBP/USD

The price of this pair appears to be floating in the over-bought territory on the 4-hour chart’s RSI indicating a downward correction may be imminent. The downward direction on the hourly chart’s RSI also supports this notion. When the downwards breach occurs, going short with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.

USD/JPY

The pair has been range-trading for a while now, with no specific direction. The Daily chart’s Slow Stochastic providing us with mixed signals. All oscillators on the 4 hour chart do not provide a clear direction as well. Waiting for a clearer sign on the hourlies might be a good strategy today.

USD/CHF

The pair has recorded much bullish behavior in the past several days. However, the technical data indicates that this trend may reverse anytime soon. For example, the daily chart’s Stochastic Slow signals that a bearish reversal is imminent. . Going short with tight stops might be a wise choice.

The Wild Card

Platinum

Platinum prices rose significantly in the last week and peaked at $1739.75 for an ounce. However, the 4-hour chart’s RSI is floating in an overbought territory suggesting that a recent upwards trend is loosing steam and a bearish correction is impending. This might be a good opportunity for forex traders to enter the trend at a very early stage.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

The firm’s history suggests its vulnerability in periods of negative social mood.
April 21, 2010

By Elliott Wave International

In the November 2009 issue of Elliott Wave International’s monthly Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, co-editors Steven Hochberg and Peter Kendall published a careful study of Goldman Sachs company history — and made a sobering forecast for the firm’s future: “Goldman Sachs will experience an epic fall.”

In this special three-part series, we will release the entire Special Report to you free of charge. Part II is below. You can find the entire series here: EWI forecasts Goldman Sachs company troubles.

Get tomorrow’s financial news today! To understand what that means, you must think and act independently from the crowd. Learn how by downloading Elliott Wave International’s FREE 118-page Independent Investor eBook here.

Special Section: A Flickering Financial Star (Part II)
Despite careful stewardship, Goldman’s reputation faltered as stocks fell in 1969-1970. When the Penn Central Railroad went under, it was revealed that Goldman sold off most of its own Penn Central holdings before the June 1970 bankruptcy. This was another case of shifting standards, as Goldman’s customers were all institutions dealing in unregistered commercial paper. They should have known the high odds of failure, as the railroad’s stock was down almost 90% when it finally failed.

As Cycle wave IV touched its low in October 1974 (S&P; see historic chart in Part I), a jury ruled, however, that Goldman “knew or should have known” that the railroad was in trouble. But Goldman Sachs company survived the negative judgment and grew quickly as the Cycle wave V bull market took off beginning in 1975.

As the chart shows, its rise to 2007 was meteoric. It was in this period that Goldman “reinvented itself” as a “risk-taking principal.” By 1994, Goldman Sachs: The Culture of Success (by Lisa Endlich) says compensation policies had tilted so heavily toward risk taking that one vice president noted, “everyone decided that they were going to become a proprietary trader.” In that year, the firm suffered its first capital loss in decades as stocks sputtered, but, within a year, the Great Asset Mania was in full force and Goldman’s appetite for risk took off with that of the investment public.

In 1999, the last year of a 200-year Grand-Supercycle-degree bull market, Goldman Sachs, appropriately, went public, becoming the last major Wall Street partnership to do so. As Bob Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist said at the time, “Some of the most conspicuous cashing in has come from the brokerage sector, which has a long history of reaching for the brass ring near peaks.”

The Partnership notes that by May 2006, when a wholesale financial flight to ever-riskier financial investments was in its very latter stages, Goldman had “the largest appetite and capacity for taking risks of all sorts, with the ability to commit substantial capital.” As other firms felt the sting of an emerging risk aversion, Goldman profited by shorting the subprime housing market and putting the squeeze on its rivals. The firm earned $11.6 billion in 2007, more than Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns and Citigroup combined. Merrill Lynch lost $7.8 billion that year.

Another bull market initiative explains Goldman’s relative strength since 2007. It dates back to the hiring of a former U.S. Treasury Secretary, as the Dow peaked in Cycle III in 1968 (see chart in Part I). This was the firm’s first foray into the upper reaches of the U.S. government. In wave V, the flow of talent went the other way and tightened the bond, as executives regularly moved from Goldman to Washington. This process was aided in part by a Goldman policy that pays out all deferred compensation to any partner who accepts a senior position in the federal government.

In May 2006, Henry Paulson, Goldman’s chairman, left to become Secretary of the U.S. Treasury. Over the course of wave V and its aftermath, when government was increasingly relied upon as the buyer of last resort, these associations proved valuable to Goldman. Eventually they will weigh heavily upon the firm, but the value persists for now because the government is playing its socionomic role and clinging tenaciously to the expired trend.

Another important late-cycle development is Goldman’s all-out effort to court, rather than avoid, conflicts of interest. From the 1950s through the early 1980s, Goldman leaders assiduously avoided even the perception of a conflict of interest between the firm’s positions and those of its clients. Goldman’s current leader, Lloyd Blankfein, “spends a significant part of his time managing real or perceived conflicts.” Says Blankfein, “If major clients — governments, institutional investors, corporations, and wealthy families — believe they can trust our judgment, we can invite them to partner with us and share in the success.”

The strategy paid off big in 2008 when Henry Paulson, who was still in charge at the Treasury, helped the taxpayer step in to rescue Goldman. According to a Vanity Fair article by Andrew Ross Sorkin, Paulson had signed an ethics letter agreeing to stay out of any matter related to Goldman. In September 2008, however, Paulson received a waiver that freed him “to help Goldman Sachs,” which was faltering under the financial meltdown of a Primary-degree bear market.

It may be that the best interests of Goldman are perfectly in line with those of the nation, but in the combative atmosphere of the next downtrend in social mood, we are quite sure that voters will not see it that way. Also, the potential for self-enrichment already appears to have overwhelmed a key player. The latest headlines reveal that another former Goldman Sachs chairman, Stephen Friedman, negotiated the “secret deal” that paid Goldman Sachs $14 billion for credit-default swaps from a bankrupt AIG. He did this as chairman of the New York Fed while also serving on the board of Goldman Sachs.

Get tomorrow’s financial news today! To understand what that means, you must think and act independently from the crowd. Learn how by downloading Elliott Wave International’s FREE 118-page Independent Investor eBook here.

By Fast Brokers – The Aussie is mimicking action taking place in the risk trade across the board by hovering around a psychological level, in this case .93.  Activity in the FX market is relatively subdued today due to the lack of economic data.  Additionally, psychological forces have cooled down a bit so far today, allowing the dollar to take a break from recent volatility.  Meanwhile, the Aussie is still sitting in a strong position after reacting positively to the RBA’s somewhat hawkish policy stance.  As we explained in yesterday’s commentary, demand for Australia’s commodities is making the RBA stay aggressive in countering price increases.  Hence, the central bank doesn’t seem opposed to raising rates again over the next two meetings if growth in emerging economies stays on track.  Regardless, investors don’t have much economic data to judge Australia by today, meaning psychological forces should stay in the driver’s seat for the time being.  That being said, even though the Aussie is exhibiting a relative strength, developments effecting the dollar could still impact the Aussie as well.  Therefore, investors should keep a close eye on the dollar’s reaction to tomorrow’s busy day of data.  Also, many psychological events have been popping up around the globe lately, so activity could pick up tomorrow regardless.

Technically speaking, the Aussie faces technical barriers in the form of 4/15 and 4/12 highs.  Additionally, the psychological .93 and .94 levels could serve as psychological obstacles over the near-term.  As for the downside, the Aussie has multiple uptrend lines serving as technical cushions along with  4/13 and 4/19 lows.

Price: .9293
Resistances: .9306, .9316, .9329, .9343, .9353, .9364
Supports: .9292, .9282, .9270, .9257, .9245, .9234
Psychological: .93, .94, .92, April highs and lows

(click chart to enlarge)

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regarded neither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Fast Brokers – Gold is holding steady around its psychological $1140/oz area following yesterday’s solid gains.  We notice the risk trade is trending slightly lower across the board today with minimal activity.  This is not surprising considering the lack of data releases and news on the wire.  Hence, gold and the dollar could remain relatively tame today unless there is a psychological development in either the U.S. or EU.  Despite strong earnings from the U.S., uncertainties surrounding Greece and Goldman are keeping the risk trade at bay.  However, the data wire will heat back up tomorrow, meaning activity should pick up as well.  That being said, investors should keep an eye on the dollar’s reaction as data points hit the tape.  The session will be highlighted by EU flash PMI, UK retail sales, and U.S. existing home sales.  Additionally, there remains the potential for psychological events to occur, meaning investors should stay on their toes.

Technically speaking, gold has multiple uptrend lines serving as technical cushions along with intraday and 4/19 lows.  Additionally, the psychological $1140/oz and $1130/oz levels could continue to serve as solid psychological supports over the near-term.  Speaking of psychologicals, $1150/oz is now serving as a barrier along with intraday highs.

Present Price: $1143.25/ oz
Resistances: $1143.88/oz, $1145.22/oz, $1145.91/oz, $1146.80/oz, $1147.73/oz, $1148.79/oz
Supports: $1142.72/oz, $1141.76/oz, $1140.70/oz, $1139.78/oz, $1138.20/oz, $1137.33/oz
Psychological: $1150/oz, $1140/oz, $1130/oz, April highs and lows

(click chart to enlarge)

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regarded neither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Fast Brokers – The USD/JPY is holding steady around its psychological 93 level, falling into another one of its tight range bound periods.  News wires have cooled a bit today and the data wire is relatively quiet.  This gives the USD/JPY room to breathe as it debates between trends.  While the uptrend is clearly in place, there remain downtrend forces stemming from long-term patterns.  Hence, it will be interesting to see which way the USD/JPY breaks next.  The currency pair seems tied to the risk trade right now barring any surprise moves from the BoJ.  That being said, investors should keep a close eye on the dollar’s reaction to upcoming economic data releases along with surprise psychological events.  The EU, UK, and U.S. will all be active tomorrow, highlighted by UK retail sales and U.S. existing home sales.  Japan will print its trade balance data during tomorrow’s Asia trading session as well.  Investors are expecting Japan’s trade surplus to rise to 0.66 trillion yen.  Considering the BoJ has expressed enthusiasm in Japan’s manufacturing sector, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a sizable surplus fueled by demand from China.

Technically speaking, the USD/JPY faces technical barriers in the form multiple downtrend lines along with intraday, 4/14, and 4/7 highs.  As for the downside, the USD/JPY has multiple uptrend lines serving as technical cushions along with intraday, 3/29, and 4/19 lows.  Additionally, the psychological 92 level could continue to serve as a psychological cushion should it be tested.

Present Price: 93.27
Resistances: 93.38, 93.51, 93.64, 93.75, 93.94, 94.06
Supports: 93.13, 93.03, 92.91, 92.81, 92.71, 92.57
Psychological: .92, .93, April highs and lows

(click chart to enlarge)

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regarded neither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Fast Brokers – The Cable is creeping higher as most of the risk trade retreats as the Pound enjoys a relative strength stemming from another encouraging CCC release.  The CCC printed well below expectations and last month’s release was revised lower, a positive development regarding a turnaround in UK unemployment.  On an interesting note, despite another huge drop in the CCC the headline unemployment rate popped two basis points to 8%.  Additionally, average earnings came in two basis points below analyst expectations.  Hence, today’s employment picture isn’t all rosy.  Meanwhile, strength in the Pound is being subdued by weakness in the risk trading.  Greek bonds hit 8% and fear is rising that the SEC could go after more financial houses other than Goldman.  The uncertainty is outweighing positive earnings from Apple and Morgan Stanley while keeping U.S. equities at bay.    Hence, the Cable could have a tough time topping previous April highs today.  The UK will keep the data train rolling tomorrow by releasing retail sales and public sector net borrowing.  Additionally, the EU will print its closely watched Flash PMI data set followed by PPI, unemployment claims, and existing home sales figures from the U.S.  Furthermore, psychological forces are swirling around the globe and have the potential to flare and overtake any fundamental developments.  Either way, activity could pick up tomorrow due to the amount of data hitting the street.

Technically speaking, the Cable has managed to avoid a retest of previous April lows thus far and has intraday lows along with its psychological 1.52 and 1.53 levels serving as technical cushions for the time being.  As for the topside, the Cable faces multiple downtrend lines along with intraday, 4/12, and 4/15 highs.  Additionally, the 1.54 and 1.55 levels could serve as a psychological barriers over the near-term.

Present Price: 1.5399
Resistances: 1.5404, 1.5419, 1.5435, 1.5453, 1.5469, 1.5486
Supports: 1.5386, 1.5371, 1.5354, 1.5341, 1.5325, 1.5310
Psychological: 1.55, 1.54, 1.53, 1.52, April highs and lows

(click chart to enlarge)

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regarded neither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.