Month: December 2013

By CountingPips.com

The latest data for the weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large futures traders and speculators cut back slightly on their bullish bets of the US dollar last week for a second consecutive week.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large International Monetary Market speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $19.10 billion as of Tuesday December 10th, according to data calculations from Reuters. This was a weekly change of -$0.75 billion from the total $19.85 billion position that was recorded on December 3rd, according to the data from Reuters which is calculated by the total of US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

US dollar bullish positions have fallen for two weeks after five straight weeks of rising levels.

Individual Currencies – Large Speculators Positions in Futures:

The non-commercial net positions for each of the individual currencies directly against the US dollar saw weekly increases for the euro, British pound sterling, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican peso while there were weekly declines for the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar. See charts & data below.

Individual Currency Charts:

EuroFX:

Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: EuroFX

British Pound Sterling:

Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: Pound Sterling

Japanese Yen:

Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: Yen

Swiss Franc:

Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: Franc

Canadian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: CAD

Australian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: AUD

New Zealand Dollar:

Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: NZD

Mexican Peso:

Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: MXN

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.)

See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

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Weekly CFTC Net Speculator Report

10 Year Treasuries: Large trader and futures market speculators decreased their overall bearish positions in the 10-year treasury note futures after adding to bearish bets the previous week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of the 10-year treasury notes, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -150,029 contracts in the data reported for December 10th. This was a change of +17,331 contracts from the previous week’s total of -167,360 net contracts that was registered on December 3rd. The December 10th level marks the lowest bearish position since October 29th when bearish contracts were at a total of -125,670.

Over the same time-frame, the yield on the 10-Year treasury note increased from 2.79 on Tuesday December 3rd to a yield of 2.81 on Tuesday December 10th, according to US Treasury data.

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article by CountingPips.com – Forex Trading News & Analysis

By CountingPips.com

Weekly CFTC Net Speculator Report

VIX: Large traders and speculators continued to add to their bearish positions in the VIX futures market on December 10th for the sixth consecutive week, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data released on Friday. The VIX non-commercial contracts, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -73,332 contracts in the data reported for December 10th. This was a change of -11,282 contracts from the previous week’s total of -62,050 net contracts on December 3rd. Over the same time-frame, the VIX index score fell from 14.55 on Tuesday December 3rd to 13.91 on Tuesday December 10th, according to the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index. See chart and data below.

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article by CountingPips.com – Forex News & Analysis

2013.12.13 13:30 6:30AM ET | USDCHF Currency Pair

Here are the Pivot Points Levels with Support (S) and Resistance (R) for the USDCHF currency pair today. Price action is currently trading over the daily pivot point at the 0.89051 price level, according to data at 6:30 AM ET. The USDCHF high for the day has been 0.89166 while the low of day reached to 0.88804. The pair earlier today opened the Asian trading session slightly above the daily pivot and has trended higher over the course of the day after finding buying support at the pivot point.

Daily Pivot Point: 0.88822
— S1 – 0.88561
— S2 – 0.88210
— S3 – 0.87949
— R1 – 0.89173
— R2 – 0.89434
— R3 – 0.89785

Weekly Pivot Points: USDCHF

Prices are currently trading below the weekly pivot point after opening the trading week below the weekly pivot. The USDCHF has been mostly on an overall bearish trend this week although further bullish action today may change the overall weekly result.

Weekly Pivot Point: 0.89775
— S1 – 0.88458
— S2 – 0.87783
— S3 – 0.86466
— R1 – 0.90450
— R2 – 0.91767
— R3 – 0.92442

By CountingPips.com – Forex Trading Apps & Currency Trade Tools

Disclaimer: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and volatility and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. All information and opinions contained do not constitute investment advice and accuracy of prices, charts, calculations cannot be guaranteed.

2013.12.13 | NZDUSD Market Analysis

NZDUSD Trends & Major Market Levels

The NZDUSD currency pair has been falling in forex market trading today with the NZDUSD registering a high of 0.82524 and reaching to a low of 0.81781 on the day. Trends data shows the pair is crossing over into a short-term downtrend with prices trading under the 21-period linear moving average. Over the longer term trend, the pair continues to be in an uptrend as seen on the daily chart by the 90-day Linear Regression Channels below while our medium term trend over past 30-60 days shows a downtrend. The New Zealand dollar’s recent upward momentum was stopped at above the 0.8300 level and brought the pair back down to 0.8200 area. Look for further fall to 0.8100 if 0.8200 level fails to hold with the  major lower level of 0.8000 looming below (this level has not been reached since September 2013).

NZDUSD Trends Data: Linear Regression Indicator

10-day current trend is BULLISH / Trend strength of 103.5 pips
30-day current trend is BEARISH / Trend strength of -93.6 pips
60-day current trend is BEARISH / Trend strength of -135.5 pips
90-day current trend is BULLISH / Trend strength of 371.2 pips
180-day current trend is BULLISH / Trend strength of 37.8 pips

Fibonacci Retracement Levels: Past 100 Days

— 0.000 – 0.85410
— 0.236 – 0.83464
— 0.382 – 0.82260
— 0.500 – 0.81286
— 0.618 – 0.80313
— 0.764 – 0.79109
— 1.000 – 0.77163

By CountingPips.com – Forex Trading Apps & Currency Trade Tools

Disclaimer: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and volatility and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. All information and opinions contained do not constitute investment advice and accuracy of prices, charts, calculations cannot be guaranteed.

2013.12.13 13:30 6:30AM ET | EURUSD Currency Pair

Here are the Pivot Points Levels with Support (S) and Resistance (R) for the EURUSD currency pair today. Price action is currently trading below the daily pivot point at the 1.37268 price level, according to data at 6:30 AM ET. The EURUSD high for the day has been 1.37684 while the low of day reached to 1.37084. The pair earlier today opened the Asian trading session below the daily pivot, found resistance near the daily pivot area and then fell sharply lower to trading at the S1 support level area.

Daily Pivot Point: 1.37638
— S1 – 1.37250
— S2 – 1.36980
— S3 – 1.36592
— R1 – 1.37908
— R2 – 1.38296
— R3 – 1.38566

Weekly Pivot Points: EURUSD

Prices remain trading higher than the weekly pivot point after opening the trading week above the weekly pivot. The EURUSD has been on an overall bullish trend this week but will need to get some more bullish action to stave off a declining week in this last trading day of the week.

Weekly Pivot Point: 1.36440
— S1 – 1.35825
— S2 – 1.34623
— S3 – 1.34008
— R1 – 1.37642
— R2 – 1.38257
— R3 – 1.39459

By CountingPips.com – Forex Trading Apps & Currency Trade Tools

Disclaimer: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and volatility and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. All information and opinions contained do not constitute investment advice and accuracy of prices, charts, calculations cannot be guaranteed.

2013.12.13 13:30 6:30AM ET | GBPUSD Currency Pair

Here are the Pivot Points Levels with Support (S) and Resistance (R) for the GBPUSD currency pair today. Price action is currently trading sharply under the daily pivot point at the 1.62802 price level, according to data at 6:30 AM ET. The GBPUSD high for the day has been 1.63591 while the low of day reached to 1.62772. The pair earlier today opened the Asian trading session slightly below the daily pivot and has traded lower to under the S1 support level as the day has progressed.

Daily Pivot Point: 1.63617
— S1 – 1.63063
— S2 – 1.62644
— S3 – 1.62090
— R1 – 1.64036
— R2 – 1.64590
— R3 – 1.65009

Weekly Pivot Points: GBPUSD

Prices are currently trading under the weekly pivot point after opening the trading week slightly below the weekly pivot. The GBPUSD had been on an overall bullish trend early in the week but lost its steam and turned bearish as the week went on.

Weekly Pivot Point: 1.63586
— S1 – 1.62758
— S2 – 1.62068
— S3 – 1.61240
— R1 – 1.64276
— R2 – 1.65104
— R3 – 1.65794

By CountingPips.com – Forex Trading Apps & Currency Trade Tools

Disclaimer: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and volatility and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. All information and opinions contained do not constitute investment advice and accuracy of prices, charts, calculations cannot be guaranteed.

2013.12.13 13:30 6:30AM ET | USDJPY Currency Pair

Here are the Pivot Points Levels with Support (S) and Resistance (R) for the USDJPY currency pair today. Price action is currently trading well over the daily pivot point at the 103.678 price level, according to data at 6:30 AM ET. The USDJPY high for the day has been 103.914 while the low of day reached to 103.344. The pair earlier today opened the Asian trading session above the daily pivot and has trended higher over the course of the day to trade to the R1 resistance level.

Daily Pivot Point: 103.053
— S1 – 102.685
— S2 – 102.010
— S3 – 101.642
— R1 – 103.728
— R2 – 104.096
— R3 – 104.771

Weekly Pivot Points: USDJPY

Prices are currently trading over the weekly pivot point and above the weekly R1 resistance level. The USDJPY has been on an overall bullish trend this week after opening the trading week above the weekly pivot. The pair fell below the 102.50 level support earlier in the week only to find strong buying support and higher levels.

Weekly Pivot Point: 102.624
— S1 – 101.879
— S2 – 100.869
— S3 – 100.124
— R1 – 103.634
— R2 – 104.379
— R3 – 105.389

By CountingPips.com – Forex Trading Apps & Currency Trade Tools

Disclaimer: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and volatility and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. All information and opinions contained do not constitute investment advice and accuracy of prices, charts, calculations cannot be guaranteed.

Sanctions have evolved since they were deployed in the 1980s to pressure South Africa. Today’s sanctions, particularly the sophisticated ability of the U.S. to unplug a target from the global finance system, are more likely to actually work. David Wessel reports. Photo: Getty.

2013.12.12 | AUDUSD Market Analysis

AUDUSD Trends & Major Market Levels

The AUDUSD currency pair has been rising slightly in forex market trading today with the AUDUSD registering a high of 0.9080 and reaching to a low of 0.9009. The AUDUSD bulls were rejected yesterday in their attempt to capitalize on the early week momentum and bring the Aussie higher to test the 0.9200 level. Heavy selling pressure brought the Aussie back down under the 0.9050 level despite the better than expected job growth numbers from Australia.

Trends data shows the pair is currently back in a short-term downtrend with prices trading under the 21-period linear moving average. Over the longer term trend, the pair continues to be in an uptrend as seen on the daily chart by the 90-day Linear Regression Channels below, although the trend has weakened considerably over the past month.

AUDUSD Trends Data: Linear Regression Indicator

10-day current trend is BEARISH / Trend strength of -33.3 pips
30-day current trend is BEARISH / Trend strength of -515.7 pips
60-day current trend is BEARISH / Trend strength of -405.2 pips
90-day current trend is BULLISH / Trend strength of 152.4 pips
180-day current trend is BEARISH / Trend strength of -916.8 pips

Fibonacci Retracement Levels: Past 100 Days

— 0.000 – 0.88468
— 0.236 – 0.90616
— 0.382 – 0.91944
— 0.500 – 0.93018
— 0.618 – 0.94092
— 0.764 – 0.95420
— 1.000 – 0.97568

By CountingPips.com – Forex Trading Apps & Currency Trade Tools

Disclaimer: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and volatility and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. All information and opinions contained do not constitute investment advice and accuracy of prices, charts, calculations cannot be guaranteed.