By CountingPips.com
The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), showed that large futures speculators added to their overall long bets for the US dollar last week against the other major currencies while Euro short positions rose and ascended to a new record level as sentiment for the European common currency continues to deteriorate.
Non-commercial futures traders, usually hedge funds and large speculators, increased their total US dollar long positions to $20.35 billion on December 27th from a total long position of $17.63 billion on December 20th, according to the CFTC COT data and calculations by Reuters which calculates the dollar positions against the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.
EuroFX: Currency speculators added to their Euro short positions as of December 27th and pushed their short bets to a new record high surpassing the previous one registered on December 13th. Euro short positions decreased to a total of 127,879 net contracts from the previous week’s total of 113,697 net short contracts.
The COT report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions as of the previous Tuesday. It can be a useful tool for traders to gauge investor sentiment and to look for potential changes in the direction of a currency or commodity. Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, where as a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar. The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.
GBP: Bearish bets of the British pound sterling increased as of December 27th after declines for three consecutive weeks through December 20th. British pound positions saw a total of 29,172 short positions on December 27th following a total of 25,939 net short positions registered on December 20th.
JPY: The Japanese yen net long speculative contracts edged lower in fell for a fifth consecutive week as of December 27th. Yen long positions declined to a total of 20,585 net long contracts reported on December 27th following a total of 24,476 net long contracts that were reported on December 20th. Yen speculative positions are at their lowest level since July 5th when long positions registered 14,327 contracts.
CHF: Bets in favor of the Swiss franc decreased as of December 27th after seeing improvement for two consecutive weeks. Speculator positions for the Swiss currency futures fell to a total of 10,798 net short contracts on December 27th following a total of 3,136 net short contracts as of December 20th.
CAD: Canadian dollar positions improved to a total of 20,812 net short contracts as of December 27th following a total of 26,868 short contracts reported on December 20th. CAD speculators have continued to have a bearish position against the US dollar since September 6th when contracts were last bullish with a total of 2,081 long contracts.
AUD: The Australian dollar long positions rose as of December 27th after declining the previous week. Australian dollar positions increased to a total net amount of 32,637 long contracts on December 27th following a total of 25,742 net long contracts reported as of December 20th. The AUD speculative positions on December 13th had reached their highest level since September 13th when Australian dollar long positions totaled 36,934.
NZD: New Zealand dollar futures speculator positions edged slightly higher after last week’s fall to just about a neutral position against the US dollar. NZD contracts increased to a total of 1,405 net long contracts as of December 27th following a total of 612 net long contracts registered the previous week. NZD contract’s show a slightly bullish position against the USD and are up from the previous week’s standing which was the lowest position since March 29th when positions equaled 239 long contracts.
MXN: Mexican peso contracts declined against the US dollar as more speculative traders chose to short the Mexican currency. Peso short positions rose to a total of 25,685 net short speculative positions as of December 27th following a total of 18,802 short contracts that were reported on December 20th.
COT Currency Data Summary as of December 27, 2011
Large Speculators Net Positions vs. the US Dollar
EUR -127879
GBP -29172
JPY +22585
CHF -10798
CAD -21812
AUD +32637
NZD +1405
MXN -25685
Other COT Trading Resources:
Trading Forex Using the COT Report
