Australian Data Continues to Disappoint

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Piling atop recent articles on Australia’s shrinking housing sector, today’s publication of Australian retail sales and its national trade balance show a broadening contraction striking several sectors of Australia’s economy. The retail sales figure, perhaps most shocking, witnessed contraction in June.

Expectations for the retail sales report was for a modest growth of 0.4% from last month’s contraction of 0.6%. The actual report of 0.1% shrinkage has led many investors to pull away from the Australian dollar (AUD) in recent trading. The nation’s trade balance also revealed sluggish growth of only A$2.05B as opposed to the expected A$2.22B, down from last month’s A$2.70B.

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US Job Cuts Hit 16-Month Peak

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Though Automatic Data Processing, Inc.’s (ADP) employment change figures gave cause for optimism today, the Challenger Job Cuts report furrowed some eyebrows. A near-60% increase in reported job cuts, year-on-year, was published earlier today by Challenger, Gray and Christmas, Inc., hitting a 16-month peak.

The report supports the dismal outlook shared by many investors on Wall Street that the US economy is once more approaching recession. The Dow Jones has been trading consecutively lower these past few days and risk appetite appears to be waning. Moreover, yesterday’s consumer spending reports revealed a decline in American consumption. All of which point to an economic downturn in the months ahead.

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Euro Higher on Economic Data and SNB Intervention

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The euro was stronger across the board as a combination of strong retail sales numbers and SNB intervention to ease the CHF has helped boost the EUR.

A recovery was seen in the euro this morning after strong retail sales of 0.9% on expectations of 0.5%. The May numbers were revised lower to -1.3% from -1.1% but the contraction failed to overshadow the positive headline number. Pressure remains in the euro zone with Italian and Spanish CDS trading at inflated levels along with increased yields in the nations’ 10-year bonds trading at 6.28% a 6.16% respectively. However yields have fallen from these highs since the SNB intervention. Bond vigilantes will likely continue to prey on Italy and Spain as the EU summit from July 21st has essentially failed restore investor confidence in the two nations’ sovereign debt. This will likely continue to weigh on the euro intermittently but at present dollar weakness looks to continue. EUR/USD resistance is found at 1.4440 with support at 1.4280 and 1.4120.

The move to weaken the CHF by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has provided a shot of adrenaline to deflated markets after yesterday’s equity selling. The SNB cut its Libor target to 0.00-0.25% from 0.00-0.75%. Previous 3-month rates were already below this target so the announcement may be more symbolic. Additional measures were taken to weaken the CHF by increasing liquidity supplies to Swiss banks. Nevertheless the impact was felt in the forex trading markets with the EUR/CHF and the USD/CHF rising from their lows. But given the risk off environment the pause in the appreciation of the CHF may only prove to be temporary as there is currently a lack of safe-have assets available. The euro is facing a sovereign debt crisis while the US economy continues to underperform. This leaves the Japanese yen as a possible currency but the risk is increasing for the Japanese Ministry of Finance to step in to ease the JPY. Thus the relief the CHF has been dealt today may prove to be temporary until the next flare up in global risk metrics.

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China Central Bank Halts Foreign Yuan Borrowing

The People’s Bank of China announced a ban on mainland-based companies directly borrowing renminbi-denominated loans from foreign banks.  The Bank noted that the measure is “in line with the current macroeconomic controls and a prudent monetary policy”, particularly given that such lending circumvents the benchmark interest rate that the central bank sets.  The Bank would continue to allow foreign yuan borrowing for financing import-export trade.


Meanwhile on monetary policy the PBOC has said that it will continue its prudent monetary policy for the rest of the year given that “Domestic inflation expectations remain on the high side”.  The People’s Bank of China last increased the interest rate by 25 basis points in July this year.  The Bank also raised the reserve requirements by 50 basis points in June this year to 21.5%.  China reported inflation of 6.4% in June, up from 5.5% in May, and above the government’s target of 4%.  Forecasts for July inflation are for around 6.2-6.4%, many analysts see inflation peaking in June/July.

www.CentralBankNews.info

Swiss National Bank Announces Actions Against Strong Swiss franc

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) announced a set of measures designed to stem a sharp acceleration in the Swiss franc (CHF).  The Bank announced: “Effective immediately, the SNB is aiming for a three-month Libor as close to zero as possible, narrowing the target range for the three-month Libor from 0.00–0.75% to 0.00–0.25%”.  The Bank will also “significantly increase the supply of liquidity to the Swiss franc money market over the next few days” and will no longer renew repos and SNB Bills that fall due.  The SNB will be watching the foreign exchange market closely and “will take further measures against the stength of the Swiss franc if necessary”.


On the currency, the Bank noted that it “considers the Swiss franc to be massively overvalued at present. This  current strength of the Swiss franc is threatening the development of the economy and increasing the downside risks to price stability in Switzerland”.  The Swiss franc has gained in recent times due to the US debt ceiling drama, as well as the ongoing sovereign debt crisis in Europe, the CHF is considered by many as a safe-haven currency and tends to rise in times of crisis and uncertainty.

At its most recent monetary policy meeting in June this year the Swiss National Bank maintained its main interest rate at 0.25%.  The Bank is forecasting inflation of 0.9% during 2011, while 2012 inflation is expected at 1% and 1.7% in 2013. The CHF last traded in the high 0.77’s against the USD, with the USDCHF exchange rate rising to 0.777 from about 0.763 prior to the announcement.


SNB Acts and CHF Tumbles

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Early this morning the Swiss National Bank said the CHF is “massively overvalued at present,” and began flooding the market with liquidity to get the 3-month Libor rate as close to zero as possible. The CHF weakened sharply versus both the USD and the EUR. Yesterday the agreement to raise the debt ceiling was met by markets with a fall out in global equities with the major bourses down over 2% and the safe-haven currencies JPY and USD bid.

Today’s Key Economic Events:

GBP – Services PMI – 08:30 GMT
Expectations: 53.3. Previous: 53.9.
Monday’s manufacturing PMI was below the 50 boom/bust level while yesterday’s construction PMI fared slightly better. A weak reading today will likely have the GBP/USD testing the 1.6260 support level with scope towards 1.6210 at the 38% retracement from the mid to late July move. Resistance comes in at 1.6325.

USD – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change – 12:15 GMT
Expectations: 101K. Previous: 157K.
Last month the ADP report came in above market expectations and caused economists to up their forecasts for Friday’s non-farm jobs report, only to have the jobs report grossly underperform market expectations. Traders should be wary of using the ADP report as a proxy for Friday’s headline jobs report. However, today’s ADP numbers if stronger would likely increase market sentiment and help the recovery in equities and higher yielding assets. EUR/USD initial resistance comes in at 1.4280 followed by 1.4450. Support is found at 1.4125. EUR/CHF resistance is located at 1.1200 followed by 1.1400.

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Parker Sees U.S. Under Negative Credit Watch by November

Aug. 2 (Bloomberg) — Bob Parker, senior adviser at Credit Suisse Asset Management, discusses the outlook for a U.S. credit-rating downgrade. Parker, speaking with Francine Lacqua on Bloomberg Television’s “On the Move,” also talks about gold prices, currency markets and the risk of a global double-dip recession.

Bank of Uganda Raises Interest Rate 100bps to 14.00%

The Bank of Uganda raised its new monetary policy interest rate (the central bank rate) by 100 basis points to 14.00% from 13.00% previously.  Bank of Uganda Governor, Emmanuel Tumusiime Mutebile, said the move was “intended to reduce the growth of bank credit in the economy, which expanded very rapidly in the 2010-11 fiscal year, and to provide some support for the nominal exchange rate, which affects domestic prices of imported goods,”.  The Bank added: “If the upside risks to inflation increase in the coming months, monetary policy will be tightened further,”.

Previously the Ugandan central bank set the central bank rate at 13.00% at its June meeting.  The Bank only recently began using the 7-day interbank rate to influence inflation, also commencing official targeting inflation; the Bank has an inflation target of 7%.  Uganda reported annual headline inflation of 18.7% in June this year, up from 16% in May, and 14.1% in April, while core inflation was 15.6% in July, 11.3% in May and 9.7% in April.  The government of Uganda is forecasting 6.6% GDP growth for the current fiscal year.

The Inside Scoop on Mutual Fund Rip Offs

By Ulli G. Niemann

The bear market that showed up at the end of 2000 has every brokerage house-as well as the entire mutual fund industry-scrambling to find creative ways to boost both their image and bottom line. Unfortunately, this is often at the investors’ expense.

Fund managers are ever on the lookout for ways to spin the stats to hide lousy track records and to find ways to obscure fees. To add insult to (financial) injury, investors end up being penalized for selling. So what’s an investor to do? In this case, knowledge is power. Here are some of the ways mutual fund investors are being taken advantage of:

  • Performance is always an issue for any investor. Formerly great funds, which I’ve used myself during the 90s, are the junkyard dogs of this century. Janus Fund comes to mind and is one of many that buy-and-hold investors got stuck with. It’s down 59%, since we acted on our Sell signal on 10/13/2000.
  • Most of the funds today have 12b-1 fees place, and some go as high as 1% of a fund’s assets per year. Between fees, commissions and management charges, the mutual fund industry is always getting paid, even if you, the investor, are losing money. For example, if you had bought SunAmerica 2-1/2 years ago, you would have paid the above fees at 2.35% per year. And, if you finally decided your investment wasn’t going anywhere, you would have been stuck with a 5% deferred sales charge.
  • If you hold a fund less than 180 days, plan on being hit with a redemption fee. It’s almost standard. What’s the deal? Brokers only get paid while you hold their fund. So, if you’re going to sell, they get a last whack. It’s a great deterrent for selling, too. Can this be avoided? Not completely, but if you have your money managed by an investment advisor, the holding period is reduced to 90 days.
  • Then there’s the deceptive no-load rip-off involving B-shares. Sure investors don’t pay anything up front for these, but you’ll pay hefty surrender fees when you sell. Plus, they carry higher management fees.

Keep in mind that mutual fund companies have market share in mind, not your best interest. If you think that might not be true, consider the skyrocket growth rate for pure technology funds. But look at them now: they’ve crashed & burned and no buy & holder has come out with a win.

Then there’s the sad story of incompetence in the mutual fund industry. There are hordes of inexperienced financial planners (commissioned salesmen) just waiting to sell you load funds (A and B shares), or to recommend an asset allocation approach with no real plan or strategy that will serve you in a bear market.

Of course, there’s always the option of having a perfectly balanced portfolio designed. Such was the case when a prospective client phoned me in 1999 during the height of the technology boom. He felt left out because everybody was making money in one of history’s great bull markets, but his portfolio was so well balanced that he was neither making nor losing anything. He would have been better off in a money market account.

To me, the term balanced portfolio translates into this: I have no clue what I’m doing, where the major trend is, what I should be buying or whether I should be in the market in the first place. I’m hedging so much that one investment goes up and another goes down.

Balance is one thing and safety is really quite another. And mutual funds do not automatically mean either safety or balance. The key is always information-knowing how to get reliable info and what it means once you have it.

This is not for everyone. If you have money to invest and you don’t have the time or the inclination to do the homework, then your smartest move is to find someone you trust. That would be someone with a track record you can verify, and someone who is not going to make money off your investment every time you buy or sell something.

People like this do exist, and the good news is you only need to do your homework once. That’s when you check them out. From then on, you can relax knowing you’re just not likely to fall prey to any of the rip-offs that are out there.

© Ulli G. Niemann


Ulli Niemann is an investment advisor and has been writing about objective, methodical approaches to investing for over 10 years. He eluded the bear market of 2000 and has helped countless people make better investment decisions. To find out more about his approach and his FREE Newsletter, please visit: www.successful-investment.com.

John Taylor Says Dollar to Remain Reserve Currency

Aug. 2 (Bloomberg) — John Taylor, founder and chief executive officer of FX Concepts, discusses the prospects for the dollar to remain the world’s reserve currency, the outlook for the euro and his investment strategy. Taylor speaks with Betty Liu and Dominic Chu on Bloomberg Television’s “In the Loop.” (Source: Bloomberg)