By CountingPips.com
The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), showed that large futures speculators increased their short positions against the US dollar while raising bets for the euro for the first time in four weeks. Non-commercial futures positions, those taken by hedge funds and large speculators, were overall net short the US dollar by $15.73 billion against other major currencies as of May 31st. The data is a rise from the total short position of $13.02 billion on May 24th, according to the CFTC data and calculations by Reuters which calculates the dollar positions against the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.
This week’s notable changes were Canadian dollar positions increasing for the first time in six weeks while Japanese yen positions fell back over to the short side for the first time in close to a month.
EuroFx: Currency speculators increased their net long positions for the euro against the U.S. dollar after three consecutive weeks of decline. Euro futures positions rose to a total of 21,970 long contracts following a total of 19,129 long positions on May 24th.
The COT report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions as of the previous Tuesday. It can be a useful tool for traders to gauge investor sentiment and to look for potential changes in the direction of a currency or commodity. Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, where as a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar. The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.
GBP: British pound sterling positions were higher following four straight weeks of decreases. Pound contracts edged up to a total of 1,829 net short positions as of May 31st following a decline the week before to a total of 14,143 short contracts on May 24th. The May 24th data marked the British pound’s lowest speculative positions since September 2010 when short positions numbered 16,060.
JPY: The Japanese yen net contracts dipped lower for the second straight week and over to the short side after increasing for four consecutive weeks through May 17th. Yen positions decreased to a total of 1,648 net short contracts reported on May 31st following a total of 8,006 net long contracts on May 24th.
CHF: Swiss franc long positions increased higher after three consecutive weeks of decreases. Franc positions rose to a total of 21,119 net long contracts following a net of 14,725 long contracts on May 24th.
CAD: The Canadian dollar positions rose for the first time in six weeks to a total of 26,402 contracts as of May 31st. CAD net contracts had fallen to a total of 21,277 net long contracts on May 24th.
AUD: The Australian dollar long positions edged higher for a second consecutive week. AUD contracts increased to a total net amount of 60,015 long contracts as of May 31st. AUD positions had totaled 53,043 net long contracts on May 24th.
NZD: New Zealand dollar futures positions rose to the highest level since early December and increased for a second straight week. NZD contracts advanced to a total of 15,724 long positions as of May 31st from a total of 13,876 long contracts on May 24th.
MXN: Mexican peso long contracts were virtually unchanged as of the May 31st data release. MXN contracts dipped just slightly to 108,268 net long contracts as of May 31st from a total of 108,681 long contracts as of May 24th.
COT Data Summary as of May 31, 2011
Large Speculators Net Positions vs. the US Dollar
EUR: +21,970
GBP: -1,829
JPY: -1,648
CHF: +21,119
CAD: +26,402
AUD: +60,015
NZD: +15,724
MXN: +108,268
