Stemming from the stream of negative US economic data this week economists have scaled back their forecasts’ for today’s non-farm employment change. Market sentiment has once again shifted against the dollar buta surprisingly positive jobs report may catch many USD shorts off guard.
Today’s Economic Data Releases
GBP – Services PMI – 08:00 GMT
Expectations: 54.4. Previous: 54.3
Sterling surged yesterday after better than expected construction PMI numbers but the gains were scaled back later in the New York trading session. While today’s services data may have a short term impact on the pound, the kicker will be this afternoon’s jobs report. Cable has support at 1.6300 and break here could spur declines to the trend line off of the May 2010 low at 1.6140. Resistance is found at the 1.6515-50 resistance zone.
USD – Non-Farm Employment Change – 12:30 GMT
Expectations: 194K. Previous: 244K.
While consensus estimates are for roughly 194K new jobs to have been added to the US economy in the month of May, economists have largely adjusted their forecasts lower following Wednesday’s disappointing ADP jobs report. Market sentiment has once again shifted against the dollar and a surprisingly positive jobs report may catch many USD shorts off guard. Therefore, a pullback in the EUR/USD would not be too farfetched. For the EUR/USD, a move above 1.4570 would set the stage for gains to the May high but a retreat below 1.4350 would shift momentum to the downside.
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