Greece remains the key question going forward though towards the end of last week the debt crisis was beginning to weaken its impact on the FX markets and the euro.
Talks between the EU and the IMF were continuing as scheduled and should end within the next few days. The German newspaper Der Spiegel reported the EU may withhold a 50B euro package for Greece should the indebted nation fail to reach its proposed austerity measures.
While the question over Greece remains unanswered, markets may have come to the conclusion that new funds will be provided to the indebted nation and Greece will eventually undertake a restructuring of its sovereign debt. Should the Greek situation be put on the back burner, this may allow for the euro to rally in the near term as the underlying fundamentals between the euro and the dollar have not changed over the month of May when the EUR/USD declined 3.5%. EU interest rates are still expected to rise while the Fed continues its QEII program into June. A close above the 50-day moving average at 1.4350 would put the bulls back in the driver’s seat with a target at the May high of 1.4940.
The dollar is on its back foot again versus the G10 currencies following a week of disappointing data releases. Lower than forecasted durable goods orders, disappointing GDP, and a steep decline in pending home sales on Friday all point to a US economy that is not firing on all cylinders. Given the downturn in US data releases, the dollar could continue to be sold versus the G10 currencies in the near term.
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