Month: January 2010

By Yan Petters – Starting on yesterday, the CAD/CHF pair seems to be very stabile, perhaps too stabile. The pair, which was on a straight uptrend, appears to linger around the 1.0000 level. However, several indications claim that turmoil could be impending.

• The chart below is the CAD/CHF 4-hour chart.
• The technical indicators used are the Bollinger Bands, the Slow Stochastic, the MACD/OaMA and the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
• The Slow Stochastic is crossing, very close to the 50 line. This indicates that the market is accepting the current price.
• The MACD also looks to show a cross, and in a midpoint location as well.
• The RSI shows same indications as it’s been ranging near the 60 line for a while now.
• In addition, the doji formation of the last candle-stick suggests that the market is about to shake. Usually when a dojy takes place, it is followed by a sharp movement.
• A potential time-frame for the turmoil is at 15:30 GMT. Make sure you don’t miss the opportunity, should it take place.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Source: ForexYard

On tap today is the ever-important US Non-Farm Employment Change (NFP) report due at 13:30 GMT. This is one of the most important economic events on the calendar and is always released on the first Friday of a new month. Should the NFP report provide positive results, there is a good chance the USD may indeed go bullish and break through a number of significant barriers.

Economic News

USD – Dollar Range-Trading in Anticipation of Non-Farm Payrolls

This entire week we’ve witnessed the USD fluctuate in a steady range against most of its rivals. The EURUSD pair has hit peaks around 1.4475, with troughs as low as 1.4270. The GBPUSD pair has seen similar behavior, but within a moderately sloped bearish channel, and trading at 1.5933 as of this morning. The USDJPY has seen a steady bullish channel, but doubts remain over how much stronger the USD will get versus many of these currencies.

On tap today is the ever-important US Non-Farm Employment Change (NFP) report due at 13:30 GMT. This is one of the most important economic events on the calendar and is always released on the first Friday of a new month. Being the first month of a new year makes this release even more significant due to the psychological importance of this time of year for many investors.

Should the NFP report provide positive results, there is a good chance the USD may indeed go bullish and break through a number of significant barriers. However, if the report shows that unemployment in the US has gotten worse, we may see some minor downward corrections in the greenback. Downward targets for a negative report include possibly breaking the 1.4460 barrier on the EURUSD, and the potential exists for the GBPUSD to break out of its bearish channel in the short-term.

EUR – EUR Patiently Awaits US Employment Reports

The EUR should be in the backseat of today’s market with the vastly important employment reports coming out of the United States and Canada. Nevertheless, the EUR is going to be on the receiving end of these reports, whether positive or otherwise. With the recent range-trading activity of the USD pairs and crosses, the EUR seems to be awaiting the results of today’s releases as well since no clear direction currently exists.

Against the greenback, the EUR has dropped from yesterday’s high of 1.4446 to as low as 1.4315 in today’s early morning hours. Against the British Pound, the 16-nation currency has flattened out somewhat and currently sits near 89.80 pence. The EUR does, however, continue to remain inside its bullish channel versus the Japanese yen, with a price currently sitting just over 133.50.

While the American NFP report is definitely the largest event of the day, the EUR may also see some early price action with the release of a number of British reports concerning producer prices and consumer inflation levels, as well as the general unemployment rate in the Euro-Zone. The opening of these markets, as well as these somewhat less valuable releases, we should see some pricing-in of the day’s levels, but the real market movement will come directly after the release of US Non-Farm Employment Change.

JPY – Yen Bearish after Finance Minister Comments

The Japanese Yen appears to be remaining within its bearish channels against most of its currency rivals. Japan typically desires a weaker currency as this helps boost its exports, but the strength the JPY has gained over the past year has put much financial strain on the island economy. Comments made by Japanese Finance Minister Naoto Kan also caused many speculators to short the yen after he declared a desire for a weaker JPY, and expressed a willingness to work with the Bank of Japan to achieve a more suitable exchange rate.

Rebuking his finance minister after such comments, Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama stressed that government ministers should not comment on the foreign exchange market, and that stable currency values are strongly desired by Japan. For today, however, the market is likely to receive the most movement following the release of US Non-Farm Payroll data at 13:30 GMT, but traders should be aware of the negative speculative sentiment surrounding the Japanese currency as this will have an impact on its value as the week comes to a close.

Crude Oil – Oil Price back Under $83 a Barrel

Despite the strong and steady uptrend in the value of Crude Oil, the price of this valuable commodity appeared to show a sign of weakening in yesterday’s trading. After spiking above $83 a barrel on Wednesday evening, the price proceeded to fall back below this price level and currently trades near $82.30 as of this morning. Crude oil market analysts have long been stating the lack of fundamental data behind oil’s recent climb, but prices continue to be propped up by speculation of a soon-to-be falling US Dollar.

Upon closer examination, on the other hand, the price of Crude Oil may have recently entered what technical analysts call a short-term consolidation trend. After rushing upwards above $83, the price then experienced tightening waves which seem to suggest that a violent price movement is on the way, and it wouldn’t be too far off to assume that this movement is going to happen around the release of the US Non-Farm Payroll data at 13:30 GMT. Since this will be the driver behind the value of the greenback, oil traders may be waiting to see what happens in forex before going further in commodities.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The daily chart is showing mixed signals with its RSI fluctuating at the neutral territory. However, there is a fresh bullish cross forming on the 4-hour chart’s Slow Stochastic indicating a bullish correction might take place in the nearest future. Going long might be a wise choice.

GBP/USD

The typical range trading on the hourly chart continues. The 4-hour chart RSI is floating in neutral territory. However, there is an impending bullish cross forming on the daily chart’s MACD indicating a bullish correction might take place in the nearest future. When the upwards breach occurs, going long with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.

USD/JPY

The price of this pair appears to be floating in the over-bought territory on the 4-hour chart’s RSI indicating a downward correction may be imminent. The downward direction on the weekly chart Slow Stochastic also supports this notion. Going short might be a wise choice.

USD/CHF

The pair has been range-trading for a while now, with no specific direction. The Daily chart’s Slow Stochastic providing us with mixed signals. The 4 hour charts do not provide a clear direction as well. Waiting for a clearer sign on the hourlies chart might be a good strategy today.

The Wild Card

Crude oil

Oil prices rose significantly in the last two weeks and peaked at $82.30 per barrel. However, daily charts’ RSI is floating in an overbought territory suggesting that a recent upwards trend is loosing steam and a bearish correction is impending. This might be a good opportunity for forex traders to enter the trend at a very early stage.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

FX Market Movers

The Dollar gained against most major currencies as US data surprised for the better. The London session was open with mixed data from Europe with German Retail Sales down -2.8% YoY Swiss CPI down -0.2% MoM and EU economic sentiment better than expected. Markets then shifted their attention to the BoE rate decision. The BoE main statements were in line with consensus with rates left on hold at 0.5% and the scale of bond purchases left unchanged at £200Bn.The Day was Concluded with the initial Jobless claims and continuing Jobless claims coming from the US. Both figures surprised for the better with initial Jobless claims at 434K against 446K expected and continuing Jobless claims falling to 4.8M.The better than expected data provided support for the US Dollar with the Dollar gaining 1% against the Euro and Sterling.

Gold was pushed south as better expected US initial Jobless claims moved gold buyers to the sidelines. The US monetary tightening is viewed by investors as closely linked to improved unemployment figures, Gold performance is inverted to monetary tightening and as investors expect an upbeat Nonfarm payrolls Gold bets were off .Gold revisiting the 1222$ level before closing above 1130$ an ounce

Oil on the other hand preformed well settling above the 80$ mark as colder than expected weather around the globe elevated outlook for the black gold and lifted demand.

The Day Ahead

The Day will be loaded with highly important economic data with unemployment at the centre. Starting  with the London session where investors will get the unemployment figures in Switzerland and the EU. In the UK investors will get the PPI figures with investors expecting more upbeat news from the kingdom as consensus bets indicate the UK recession ended in Q4.In 10:00 GMT the EU revised Q3 GDP is due with investors expecting a 0.4% gain QoQ. In the New York session the Canadian unemployment is due with investors expecting unemployment to stay on 8.5%.And then finally markets’ focus will move to the main curse of the day the US unemployment and Nonfarm payrolls figures. Investors’ pulls suggest market is expecting unemployment to crawl back above the 10% and Nonfarm payrolls to be flat MoM. Both indicators are expected to stir market sentiment with better than expected figures pushing the Dollar higher and Gold south while disappointing figures or even figures in line with consensus could lead the Dollar to give up some of its weekly gains as the currency failed to break range and slice through the thick bid zone.

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD, Daily

Bullish Scenario– A daily close above 1.447 would signal the pair is moving higher to regain Bearish momentum

Target -1.464

Bearish scenario– A break of 1.425- downwards would generate a strong bearish swing, targeting the 1.4 support and under.

Target A-1.4

Target B-1.38

Daily Forex Market Analysis provided by eToro

Disclaimer: Trading in the Foreign Exchange market might carry potential rewards, but also potential risks. You must be aware of the risks and are willing to accept them in order to trade in the foreign exchange market. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

© 2009 eToro Blog.

EURUSD stays in a rising price channel on 4-hour chart, and the price action in the channel is more likely consolidation of downtrend from 1.5144. Lengthier consolidation is still in favor and one more rise towards the upper border of the price channel is expected later today. Initial support is located at the bottom of the price channel and key support is now at 1.4257, a break below this level will indicate that the downtrend has resumed and another fall towards 1.4000 could be seen.

Daily Forex Analysis

By Fast Brokers – The USD/JPY is popping past previous January highs on the news that Finance Minister Fuji is resigning for health reasons.  Fuji’s replacement, Naoto Kan, has already established a more dovish monetary stance after expressing his preference for a weaker Yen.  Kan’s approach counteracts Fuji’s more neutral monetary stance, encouraging investors to sell-off the Yen, a positive development for the USD/JPY.  Meanwhile, the FX markets continue to exhibit strength in the Greenback, highlighted by weakness in the EUR/USD and Cable.  Hence, not only is the USD/JPY benefitting from Fuji’s resignation but also broad-based Dollar strength.   Investors are continuing to eye tomorrow’s U.S. economic data set.  The U.S. will print its headline Unemployment Rate and Employment Change data.  Since a turnaround in U.S. employment data triggered December’s Dollar rally, tomorrow’s data set could carry some added weight.  Therefore, more impressive U.S. employment data could benefit the USD/JPY once again.  On the other hand, disappointing data could stymie the USD/JPY’s current rally.

Technically speaking, the USD/JPY overcame some notable topside barriers during the month of December, most notably the psychological 90 level and a few heavily-weighted downtrend lines.  Speaking of downtrend lines, the USD/JPY just broke through what is now our 1st tier downtrend line.  Our 1st tier runs through August highs.  Therefore, should the USD/JPY create some topside separation we could potentially witness a run towards the 97.50 area.  Meanwhile, the USD/JPY faces multiple downtrend lines along with September highs and the psychological 95 zone.  As for the downside, the USD/JPY has multiple uptrend lines serving as technical cushions along with intraday and 1/05 lows.  Furthermore, the psychological 90 area could serve as a suitable cushion should it be tested.

Present Price: 93.17

Resistances: 93.21, 93.39, 93.60, 93.81, 94.08, 94.30

Supports: 92.94, 92.69, 92.46, 92.26, 92.07, 91.90

Psychological: 95, 90, January and September Highs

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Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Fast Brokers – Gold is topping out below $1150/oz after a solid run despite recent weakness in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD.  However, it seems gold’s usual negative correlation with the Dollar is coming back into play today.  Gold is edging lower as we witness broad-based strength in the Greenback in reaction to a monetary tightening in China combined with weak data from the EU.  Meanwhile, attention remains focused on tomorrow’s U.S. data set.  The U.S. will release its headline Unemployment Rate and Employment Change figures.  Seeing as a turnaround in U.S. employment triggered December’s Dollar rally, tomorrow’s employment data could stir up volatility in the FX markets should the numbers deviate from analyst expectations.  Stronger than expected U.S employment data could encourage investors to snap up the Dollar again, normally a negative catalyst for the gold. On the other hand, discouraging employment numbers could yield broad-based weakness in the Dollar, a negative development for gold.  Therefore, investors should keep an eye on the Dollar’s reaction to tomorrow’s economic data releases.

Technically speaking, gold has multiple uptrend lines serving as technical cushions along with 1/05, 12/30, and 12/22 lows.  On an encouraging note, gold has set consecutive higher lows after bottoming out in December, and we are currently unable to form a noteworthy downtrend line.  Therefore, gold could have some decent upward mobility should the Dollar weaken in reaction to upcoming U.S. data.  Meanwhile, our 1st tier uptrend line could prove to be an important trend line since it runs through 10/28 lows, or the $1025/oz level.  As for the topside, gold faces technical barriers in the form of 12/17 and 11/18 highs along with the psychological $1150/oz level.

Present Price: $1130.25/oz

Resistances:  $1132.99/oz, $1137.41/oz, $1141.33/oz, $1145.40/oz, $1149.29/oz, $1153.17/oz

Supports: $1128.09/oz, $1124.03/oz, $1119.82/oz, $1115.29/oz, $1110.43/oz, $1105.57/oz

Psychological: $1100/oz, $1150/oz, December highs and January lows

(click to enlarge)

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Fast Brokers – Yesterday’s UK Services PMI number printed in line and today’s Halifax PMI came in slightly above expectations, creating a positively mixed environment for the Pound.  The Pound has gained a little strength in reaction as the EUR/GBP starts to top out.  However, the Cable has given back most of January’s gains and is trying to stabilize above our 2nd tier uptrend line and 12/30 lows.  Despite today’s attempt to set a bottom, there remains a downward force bearing down on the Cable.  We witness similar behavior in the EUR/USD while the USD/JPY pops.  Hence, the FX theme seems to be one of broad-based Dollar strength.  However, the question is whether the Dollar is gaining its strength from an inclination to head for safety.  The improvement in Western economic data seems to be tapering off, placing more weight on tomorrow’s U.S data set.  The U.S. will release its headline Unemployment Rate and Employment Change figures and the data could prove to be a market mover.  Investors should keep in mind that December’s Dollar rally was trigger by a turnaround in U.S. employment data.  Hence, if tomorrow’s data prints better than expected we could witness another wave of Dollar buying, a negative development for the Cable.  On the other hand, disappointing employment numbers could add to speculation that the Fed will maintain a loose monetary policy for a while and allow the Cable to challenge some of our downtrend lines.  In addition to tomorrow’s U.S. data, the UK will release PPI.  The BoE kept its monetary policy unchanged as anticipated, indicating the central bank is keeping a close eye on inflation to determine whether to scale back some of its QE measures at its next meeting.  Hence, it will be interesting to see how tomorrow’s UK PPI turns out.

Technically speaking, the psychological 1.60 level is serving as a technical barrier once again along with our multiple downtrend lines and January highs.  As for the downside, our near-term technical cushions are wearing thing with our 1st and 2nd tier uptrend lines sitting nearby along with December ’09 lows.  December’s downturn was a key development for the Cable.  Hence, if our present technical cushions don’t hold the Cable may fall back towards September ’09 lows.

Present Price: 1.5930

Resistances: 1.5973, 1.5995, 1.6024, 1.6058, 1.6085, 1.6107

Supports: 1.5928, 1.5901, 1.5876, 1.5848, 1.5823, 1.5789

Psychological: 1.60, December highs and lows, September lows

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Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Fast Brokers – The EUR/USD is continuing its consolidative pattern despite sizable gains in gold.  We recognize similar behavior in the GBP/USD and the EUR/GBP is moving sideways.  Investors are digesting a wealth of news and data.  Yesterday’s U.S. ADP number and Services PMI both printed slightly below expectations while EU Industrial New Orders also disappointed.  Additionally, today the EU released a negative set of Retail Sales data.  Hence, the global economic recovery continues to materialize at a sluggish pace in the West.  As for the East, China raised new bond issues by 4 basis points and investors are taking this as a signal that China may be more conservative monetarily in 2010.  Additionally, Australia’s Retail Sales came in hotter than anticipated.  Therefore, the East continues to lead the global economic recovery.  However, the U.S. did print an encouraging weekly Unemployment Claims number today, and attention remains focused on Friday’s headline Unemployment Rate and Employment Change releases.  If tomorrow’s U.S. employment data impresses, we could see another leg down in the EUR/USD since this week’s EU data has been disappointing.  On the other hand, discouraging employment data could add more weight to recent Fed Minutes hinting that the central bank is considering expanding its asset purchase program to keep the U.S. housing market afloat, a positive development for the EUR/USD.  For the time being the theme continues to be Dollar strength.

Technically speaking, the EUR/USD still faces multiple downtrend lines along with the psychological 1.45 level, 1/05, 12/23, and 12/18 highs.  Hence, some challenging near-term topside technicals are in place due to the EUR/USD’s downturn in December.  As for the downside, the EUR/USD has technical cushions in the form of our 1st and 2nd tier uptrend lines along with intraday and 1/04 and 12/22 lows.  The EUR/USD is still trading well below our 3rd tier uptrend line that runs through July lows, meaning the currency pair could be in for more losses over the medium-term towards the psychological 1.40 should U.S. data continue to outperform.  On an encouraging note, the EUR/USD is setting higher lows, creating the possibility of a new base.

Present Price: 1.4343

Resistances: 1.4356, 1.4390, 1.4418, 1.4439, 1.4458, 1.4484

Supports: 1.4323, 1.4303, 1.4267, 1.4235, 1.4216

Psychological: 1.45, 1.40, December and September Lows

(click to enlarge)

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Russell Glaser – The price of spot crude oil continued to rise yesterday after the release of the weekly crude oil inventories report. A lower dollar and colder weather across the globe helped to support the rising price.

Yesterday, the Energy Information Agency released data showing U.S. crude oil inventories climbed over the previous week with a rise in imports. Inventories increased by 1.3M barrels last week versus a 1.6M barrel expectations from market analysts. One note that may have sparked the buying after the news release was the drop in refinery production. Refineries cut their production to 79.9% from last week’s numbers of 80.3%.

Spot crude oil prices are now trading higher at $82.70 after an opening price yesterday of $81.73. Prices reached a 15-month high at $83.47 after the data was released.

Supporting the rising crude oil price were a weakening dollar and harsh winter weather across the globe. The dollar traded lower against the euro and the pound after poor U.S. unemployment numbers and negative comments from the Federal Reserve.

It appears crude oil prices are not showing any signs of a weakening trend. Crude prices are climbing despite negative economic news. Perhaps we are seeing a rise in commodity prices before the global economy has actually put the economic recession behind them?

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Source: ForexYard

Today, traders should pay close attention to the release of the U.S. Unemployment Claims report. This indicator always produces extreme market volatility in the major currency pairs. Traders may find good opportunities to enter the market following this vital announcement at 13:30 GMT.

Economic News

USD – USD Down Following FOMC Meeting Minutes

The dollar fell against most of its major currency pairs yesterday after minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting suggested the possibility of more stimulus measures for the economy. By yesterday’s close, the dollar fell 0.4% against the EUR to 1.4417.

The dollar experienced similar behavior against the GBP and closed at 1.6015.
Over the past month, the dollar had risen on expectations an improving economy would prompt the Fed to hike interest rates sooner rather than later. Analysts said the minutes are likely to dampen speculation the central bank would tighten any time soon. In addition, the fall in the Dollar that has been treated as a lower risk, safe-haven investment, to growing optimism that the worst of the financial crisis has passed. This has caused investors to buy commodity-linked and higher-yielding currencies, which rallied earlier last week.

Looking ahead to today, there are few news releases coming out of the U.S. These include the Unemployment Claims and Natural Gas storage at 13.30 GMT and 15:30 GMT respectively. Better-than-expected results may help the Dollar recover some of yesterday’s losses against some of its crosses such as the EUR and GBP. On the other hand, if the results turn out to be lower than forecast, then the Dollar may record a fairly bearish session in today’s trading. Traders should pay close attention to the market as there is an opportunity for traders to capitalize on the fluctuations which are likely to follow these releases.

EUR – EUR Rallies against Dollar and Yen

The EUR experienced a bullish trading session yesterday, as it appreciated against most of its major currency pairs. The 16-nation currency extended gains versus the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, to trade above $1.4417 amid a broad sell off in the greenback. . The EUR experienced similar behavior against the JPY as the pair rose from 132.30 to 13310 by days end.

The EUR was affected by the global stock market rally and the bearish Dollar. The U.S. stock market rally led investors to buy-back into the EUR, as they looked for returns on buying commodity-linked and higher-yielding currencies in Wednesday’s trading.
As the global economy stabilizes, currency traders have started to focus more on fundamentals such as economic growth and short-term interest rates. That shift, just getting underway, could take the shine off the soaring EUR in coming months.

Looking ahead to today, the most important economic indicator scheduled to be released from Euro-Zone is German Factory Orders at 11:00 GMT. Analysts are forecasting this figure to increase from its previous reading. Traders will be paying close attention to today’s announcement as a better than expected result may continue to boost the EUR in today’s trading.

JPY – Yen Free Fall Continues

The yen fell against against most of its major currency pairs yesterday as signs of a global economic rebound eroded demand for the Japanese currency as a haven and Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii resigned.

The yen came under pressure after news of Japanese Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii’s resignation. His departure could add to challenges for the Japanese government as it wrestles with deflation, a fragile economy and huge public debt.

Most analysts expect little impact on Japan’s currency policy, which is controlled by the finance ministry. But some say Deputy Prime Minister Naoto Kan, who will succeed Fujii, may be less tolerant of letting the yen rise and putting at risk a fragile export-led recovery.

Crude oil – Crude oil Rises on Weak Dollar

Crude Oil prices experienced another day of appreciation as the oft-traded commodity rose above $83 during yesterday trading session. The data released Wednesday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed a reversal in the recent trend of falling oil and fuel inventories. While total oil and refined product stockpiles fell slightly, two of the most closely watched categories bucked the trend.

Oil and other commodities denominated in dollars for global trading tend to rise when the U.S. currency falls as they become cheaper for holders of other currencies. A move away from dollar-based pricing of the world’s leading commodity could further weaken the greenback.

Don’t forget that you now have the option to trade mini lots of Gold and Crude Oil with a Standard trading account at ForexYard.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The bearish trend is losing its steam and the pair seems to consolidate around the 1.4390 level. The 4H chart’s RSI is already floating in the over-sold territory suggesting that the recent downward trend is losing steam and a bullish correction is impending. Going long with tight stops appears to be the preferable strategy.

GPB/USD

The bearish formation on the 4H chart remains intact; however the momentum seems to be fading. The hourly chart is also maintaining a slightly bearish configuration yet with no distinct conclusion. Traders are advised to hold for the break and then swing into it.

USD/JPY

The daily chart show fresh signs of a bullish move, suggesting that the downtrend has vanished. The hourly chart’s RSI also supports this notion indicating that the upwards momentum has more steam in it. Going long with tight stops might be the right strategy today.

USD/CHF

The pair has been range-trading for a while now, with no specific direction. The Daily chart’s RSI providing us with mixed signals. All oscillators on the 4-hour chart do not provide a clear direction as well. Waiting for a clearer sign on the hourlies might be a good strategy today.

The Wild Card

Platinum

The violent bullish surge continues with all oscillators showing the continuation of the trend. Fresh all time highs are being breached on a daily basis and Platinum is now floating at 1564.55. The RSI is showing that the bullish momentum is still quite bullish. Forex traders have a great chance of enjoying the additional momentum still left for the commodity.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.