FX Market Movers
The Dollar gained against most major currencies as US data surprised for the better. The London session was open with mixed data from Europe with German Retail Sales down -2.8% YoY Swiss CPI down -0.2% MoM and EU economic sentiment better than expected. Markets then shifted their attention to the BoE rate decision. The BoE main statements were in line with consensus with rates left on hold at 0.5% and the scale of bond purchases left unchanged at £200Bn.The Day was Concluded with the initial Jobless claims and continuing Jobless claims coming from the US. Both figures surprised for the better with initial Jobless claims at 434K against 446K expected and continuing Jobless claims falling to 4.8M.The better than expected data provided support for the US Dollar with the Dollar gaining 1% against the Euro and Sterling.
Gold was pushed south as better expected US initial Jobless claims moved gold buyers to the sidelines. The US monetary tightening is viewed by investors as closely linked to improved unemployment figures, Gold performance is inverted to monetary tightening and as investors expect an upbeat Nonfarm payrolls Gold bets were off .Gold revisiting the 1222$ level before closing above 1130$ an ounce
Oil on the other hand preformed well settling above the 80$ mark as colder than expected weather around the globe elevated outlook for the black gold and lifted demand.
The Day Ahead
The Day will be loaded with highly important economic data with unemployment at the centre. Starting with the London session where investors will get the unemployment figures in Switzerland and the EU. In the UK investors will get the PPI figures with investors expecting more upbeat news from the kingdom as consensus bets indicate the UK recession ended in Q4.In 10:00 GMT the EU revised Q3 GDP is due with investors expecting a 0.4% gain QoQ. In the New York session the Canadian unemployment is due with investors expecting unemployment to stay on 8.5%.And then finally markets’ focus will move to the main curse of the day the US unemployment and Nonfarm payrolls figures. Investors’ pulls suggest market is expecting unemployment to crawl back above the 10% and Nonfarm payrolls to be flat MoM. Both indicators are expected to stir market sentiment with better than expected figures pushing the Dollar higher and Gold south while disappointing figures or even figures in line with consensus could lead the Dollar to give up some of its weekly gains as the currency failed to break range and slice through the thick bid zone.
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD, Daily
Bullish Scenario– A daily close above 1.447 would signal the pair is moving higher to regain Bearish momentum
Target -1.464
Bearish scenario– A break of 1.425- downwards would generate a strong bearish swing, targeting the 1.4 support and under.
Target A-1.4
Target B-1.38
Daily Forex Market Analysis provided by eToro
Disclaimer: Trading in the Foreign Exchange market might carry potential rewards, but also potential risks. You must be aware of the risks and are willing to accept them in order to trade in the foreign exchange market. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.
