By GCI Fx Research
€
The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4205 level and was capped around the $1.4350 level. Data released in the U.S. today saw July headline durable goods orders print at 4.9%, up from a revised -1.3% in June, while the ex-transportation component was up +0.8%, below forecasts and below the strong June revision of +2.5%. Additionally, MBA mortgage applications expanded 7.5%, up from the previous reading of 5.6%. Moreover, July new home sales were up an annualized 433,000, exceeding forecasts and the positive June revision of 395,000. This 9.6% m/m increase in housing data is consistent with other numbers released recently including yesterday’s Case-Shiller data and evidence an improvement in the long-beleaguered sector. Collectively, recent economic data have evidenced a U.S. economy that appears to have bottomed out. Nonetheless, there is now some talk that the global economy may have come too far, too fast and resulted in overvalued equities markets. The euro has been highly correlated with equities prices and a move lower in share prices could put the common currency on the backfoot. In eurozone news, the German Ifo’s August business climate index rallied to 90.5, its highest level since September 2008. Data released in the eurozone yesterday saw German second quarter gross domestic product growth expand 0.3%, confirming the provisional estimate from 13 August. ECB policymakers this week have been quite cautious in their assessments of the economy, noting it is unlikely they’ll move to unwind their monetary stimuli anytime soon. ECB rate-setters will next convene on 3 September and are unlikely to change monetary policy at that time. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3900 figure.
¥/ CNY
The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥94.55 level and was supported around the ¥93.85 level. The yen was otherwise stronger across the board as risk appetite weakened on ongoing concerns that some asset prices are overvalued. The big news in the market today was a report that China may move to curb some industrial overcapacity in industries such as steel and cement that has been precipitated by this year’s record credit expansion. Any indication that China may seem to reduce economic growth and contain its liberal credit policies could result in yen appreciation on the premise that the resulting impact on global growth will slow. All eyes will watch this weekend’s general election in Japan with the Democratic Party of Japan poised to dislodge the Aso government and long-incumbent Liberal Democratic Party from power. The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 1.36% to close at ¥10,639.71. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥104.15 level. The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥133.90 level and was capped around the ¥135.10 level. The British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around the ¥152.20 level while the Swiss franc moved lower vis-à-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¥87.95 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar lost ground vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8266 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.8267. Chinese Premier Wen this week said the markets need to avoid being “blindly optimistic” about the global economic recovery and added China must maintain its “moderately loose” monetary policy and “active” fiscal policy. PBoC has reported it will ensure “reasonable and ample” liquidity.
Daily Market Commentary provided by GCI Financial Ltd.
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