By Fast Brokers – The EUR/USD is continuing its streak of unpredictable behavior. A day after the EUR/USD got back above 1.40 on increasing volume, the currency pair retreats on even larger volume the next session. We believe this pattern is a result of heightened investor anxiety, indicating the Dollar is at a critical point trend-wise. While the Dollar still has a tendency to depreciate due to negative psychological momentum in the market, the bulls aren’t ready to sacrifice the medium-term uptrend so easily, hence Tuesday’s considerable volume to the upside. We don’t expect volatility to cool today since the U.S. just released final GDP and weekly unemployment claims. Though final GDP came in two basis points above analyst expectations, unemployment claims posted a surprising increase today.
In addition to the negative unemployment claims number for America, the EU released a disappointing industrial new orders figure. The industrial orders number supports a fear that the data we saw improving over the past few months may retreat as national stimulus measures are blunted by a harsh global economic reality. Therefore, we’ll have to keep a close eye on upcoming economic data releases to see if they support this viewpoint.
U.S. equities are reacting negatively pre-market to the jobs data, meaning the EUR/USD could add onto today’s losses. The S&P futures continue to hover around 900, reflecting the indecisiveness of the greenback across the board. Even though present losses in the EUR/USD are discouraging, the currency pair remains above our 2nd tier uptrend line. The GBP/USD has been swinging between a trading range as well, indicating the Dollar is experiencing a battle between trends. Therefore, outlook is a bit tricky until investors commit to a trend. We will take a wait and see approach until the market makes a more concrete directional decision.
Present Price: 1.3909
Resistances: 1.3928, 1.3978, 1.4024, 1.4052, 1.4097
Supports: 1.3894, 1.3863, 1.3825, 1.3803, 1.3757
Psychological: 1.40, 1.35
Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.
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