Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)

By GCI Fx Research

The euro weakened vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3860 level and was capped around the US$ 1.4020 level.   The common currency failed to keep pace with a strong showing from U.S. equity markets as the Dow registered a 200+ point gain through mid-day North American trading.  Data released in the U.S. today saw the March S&P/Case-Shiller home price index decline 18.7% while the May consumer confidence survey improved to 54.9 from a revised 40.8 in April.  The present sub-index and expected sub-index rallied nicely with the latter jumping to 72.3 from a revised 51.0 in March.  Traders are closely watching developments regarding the fate of General Motors, the U.S. automotive giant that is facing a series of deadlines this week.  In eurozone news, the EMU-16 current account balance improved for the fourth consecutive month in March, printing at -€6.5 billion from a revised February tally of -€7.8 billion.  Also, EMU-16 March industrial new orders were off 0.8% m/m and 26.9% y/y.  Additionally, German GDP was off 3.8% q/q in the first quarter and down 6.9% y/y.  Moreover, French April consumer spending was up +0.7% m/m and +0.6% y/y.  GfK reported the June German consumer confidence number stable at 2.5.  Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3435 level.

¥/ CNY

The yen appreciated marginally vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥94.50 level and was capped around the ¥95.15 level.  The yen was mixed across the board as traders reacted to a mixed bag of eurozone and U.S. economic data.  Data released in Japan overnight saw the April corporate service price index print at 92.7, off 0.2% m/m and 2.4% y/y.  Bank of Japan and the Cabinet Office both upgraded their assessments of the Japanese economy yesterday and the government expects positive economic growth in the April – June quarter.  The Nikkei 225 yesterday stock index lost 0.39% to close at ¥9,310.81.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥104.15 level.  The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥131.45 level and was capped around the ¥133.30 level.  The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¥151.50 level while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-à-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¥87.80 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar appreciated vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8355 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8255.

The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.5965 level and was supported around the $1.5775 level.  Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Sentance indicated he sees indications the worst of the economic downturn has passed and added he is “hopeful” the economy will improve later this year or in 2010.  Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.5315 level.  The euro lost ground vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids around the ₤0.8755 level and was capped around the ₤0.8805 level.

CHF

The Swiss franc depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the CHF 1.0925 level and was supported around the CHF 1.0810 level.  Data released in Switzerland today saw the Q1 employment level remain unchanged at 3.96 million.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.1165 level.  The euro lost ground vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested bids around the CHF 1.5125 level while the British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the Swiss franc and tested offers around the CHF 1.7295 level.

Daily Market Commentary provided by GCI Financial Ltd.

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