Speculators raise US Dollar Index bullish bets, add to EURO & GBP bearish bets

August 3rd – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

US Dollar Index Speculator Positions

Large currency speculators continued to add to their bullish net positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 30,283 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 30th. This was a weekly advance of 1,155 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,128 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position ascending by 7,087 contracts (to a weekly total of 49,305 contracts) and overshadowed the gross bearish position which saw a lift by 5,932 contracts for the week (to a total of 19,022 contracts).

Speculators raised their bullish bets for a fifth consecutive week and for the eighth time in the past eleven weeks. The current standing for USD Index speculators is back above the +30,000 net contract threshold and at the highest level since March 12th.


Individual Currencies Data this week:

In the other major currency contracts data, we saw two substantial changes (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the speculators category this week.

Euro speculator positions went sharply more bearish this week by over -14,000 net contracts. This is the second straight week of higher bearish bets. Euro positions had been improving recently – coming down from a total of -101,102 contracts on May 21st to a total of -31,351 contracts on July 16th. Since then, bearish bets have crept back up and above the -50,000 contract level.

British pound sterling bearish positions rose for a seventh straight week and for the tenth time out of the past eleven weeks. Speculator positions had been positive for a brief time on April 16th but have since deteriorated to over -90,000 net contracts. This current level is the most bearish since April 25th of 2017.

Overall, the major currencies that saw improving speculator positions this week were the US dollar index (1,155 weekly change in contracts), Japanese yen (5,159 contracts) and the Mexican peso (3,513 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week were the euro (-14,979 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (-11,567 contracts), Swiss franc (-1,295 contracts), Canadian dollar (-9,028 contracts), Australian dollar (-5,462 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (-94 contracts).


Current Strength of Each Currency compared to their 3-Year Range

See the table and individual currency charts below.


Table of Large Speculator Levels & Weekly Changes:

CurrencyNet Speculator PositionSpecs Weekly Change
USD Index30,2831,155
EuroFx-53,983-14,979
GBP-90,150-11,567
JPY-4,2185,159
CHF-14,488-1,295
CAD21,722-9,028
AUD-53,442-5,462
NZD-12,319-94
MXN128,2683,513

 

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

 


Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

The Euro large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -53,983 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -14,979 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,004 net contracts.


British Pound Sterling:

The large British pound sterling speculator level resulted in a net position of -90,150 contracts in the data reported this week. This was a weekly fall of -11,567 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,583 net contracts.


Japanese Yen:

Large Japanese yen speculators came in at a net position of -4,218 contracts in this week’s data. This was a weekly lift of 5,159 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,377 net contracts.


Swiss Franc:

The Swiss franc speculator standing this week was a net position of -14,488 contracts in the data through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,295 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,193 net contracts.


Canadian Dollar:

Canadian dollar speculators came in at a net position of 21,722 contracts this week. This was a decline of -9,028 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,750 net contracts.


Australian Dollar:

The large speculator positions in Australian dollar futures totaled a net position of -53,442 contracts this week in the data ending Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,462 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,980 net contracts.


New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand dollar speculative standing resulted in a net position of -12,319 contracts this week in the latest COT data. This was a weekly decline of -94 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,225 net contracts.


Mexican Peso:

Mexican peso speculators came in at a net position of 128,268 contracts this week. This was a weekly lift of 3,513 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 124,755 net contracts.


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

WTI Crude Oil Speculators trimmed their bullish bets for 2nd week

August 3rd – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

WTI Crude Oil Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large energy speculators cut back on their bullish net positions in the WTI Crude Oil futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of WTI Crude Oil futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 387,291 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 30th. This was a weekly decline of -10,560 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 397,851 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) rising by 2,298 contracts (to a weekly total of 540,238 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) rose by 12,858 contracts for the week (to a total of 152,947 contracts).

Speculators reduced their bullish positions for a second straight week and for the third time in the past four weeks. The current speculator sentiment remains overall bullish with a 3.5 to 1 long to short ratio while the net position is just below the average level (+401,853 contracts) for all of 2019.

WTI Crude Oil Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -387,067 contracts on the week. This was a weekly advance of 10,421 contracts from the total net of -397,488 contracts reported the previous week.

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the WTI Crude Oil Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $58.05 which was an increase of $1.28 from the previous close of $56.77, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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10-Year Note Speculators edged their bearish bets higher this week

August 3rd – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators continued to raise their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -383,842 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 30th. This was a weekly change of -3,673 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -380,169 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) increasing by 14,814 contracts (to a weekly total of 693,303 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) rose by 18,487 contracts for the week (to a total of 1,077,145 contracts).

Large speculators continued to raise their bearish bets for a third straight week and for the fifth time out of the past seven weeks.

The speculative position has remained overall bearish dating back to December of 2017, reaching an all-time record high bearish level on September 25th of 2018. Since then, speculative bearish positions have retreated but have continued to remain overall bearish. Usually reliable trend-followers, the speculators have been caught on the wrong side of this market this year as 10-year bonds have been strongly bid.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 311,918 contracts on the week. This was a weekly rise of 136 contracts from the total net of 311,782 contracts reported the previous week.

10-Year Note Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 10-Year Note Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $127.78 which was a shortfall of $-0.01 from the previous close of $127.79, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Gold Speculators pushed bullish bets higher for 8th time in 9 weeks

August 3rd – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Gold Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators once again lifted their bullish net positions in the Gold futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 254,388 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 30th. This was a weekly boost of 3,138 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 251,250 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) advancing by 333 contracts (to a weekly total of 312,214 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) fell by -2,805 contracts for the week (to a total of 57,826 contracts).

Large speculators have now raised their bullish bets for three straight weeks and for the eighth time out of the past nine weeks. This streak of bullishness has taken the gold speculator level from a total of +86,688 contracts on May 28th to a total of +254,388 contracts this week.

The current standing is now at the most bullish level since September 12th of 2017 and has been above the +200,000 net contract level for seven straight weeks after having spent the previous seventy-one weeks below this level.

Gold Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -287,967 contracts on the week. This was a weekly fall of -128 contracts from the total net of -287,839 contracts reported the previous week.

Gold Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Gold Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $1429.70 which was an advance of $8.00 from the previous close of $1421.70, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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VIX Speculators pushed their bearish bets higher for 7th time in 8 weeks

August 3rd – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

VIX Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large volatility speculators continued to raise their bearish net positions in the VIX futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of VIX futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -144,314 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 30th. This was a weekly change of -12,047 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -132,267 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) sinking by -3,324 contracts (to a weekly total of 116,711 contracts) and combined with the gross bearish position (shorts) which increased by 8,723 contracts for the week (to a total of 261,025 contracts).

Large speculators resumed their bearishness for the VIX this week following a brief cool off last week. The gain in bearish bets is the seventh time out of the past eight weeks and the twenty-third time out of the thirty weeks that data has been published in 2019.

This week’s total of -144,314 net contracts is the highest level since May 7th which was one week after bearish bets had hit a record high of -180,359 contracts on April 30th.

VIX Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 151,570 contracts on the week. This was a weekly increase of 4,436 contracts from the total net of 147,134 contracts reported the previous week.

VIX Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the VIX Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $15.07 which was a gain of $0.30 from the previous close of $14.77, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Silver Speculators boost bullish bets to highest since 2017

August 3rd – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Silver Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators once again increased their bullish net positions in the Silver futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Silver futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 64,297 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 30th. This was a weekly gain of 9,536 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,761 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) increasing by 1,153 contracts (to a weekly total of 111,282 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) dropped by -8,383 contracts for the week (to a total of 46,985 contracts).

Large speculators added to their rising bullish positions for a third straight week and for the seventh time out of the past nine weeks. The sentiment turnaround has been fast and furious for Silver as net positions have gone from a total of -22,409 net contracts on May 28th to a total of +64,297 net contracts this week.

The current level is now the most bullish standing for Silver bets since November 21st of 2017 when net positions totaled +67,641 contracts (a span of 88 weeks).

Silver Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -83,916 contracts on the week. This was a weekly decline of -7,778 contracts from the total net of -76,138 contracts reported the previous week.

Silver Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Silver Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $1655.80 which was an increase of $8.20 from the previous close of $1647.60, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Copper Speculators raised their bearish bets after 2-week pause

August 3rd – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Copper Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators resumed their bearish stance in the Copper futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Copper futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -28,755 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 30th. This was a weekly change of -4,706 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,049 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) increasing by 870 contracts (to a weekly total of 77,334 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) overshadowed the longs and rose by 5,576 contracts for the week (to a total of 106,089 contracts).

The past two weeks had provided a strong pullback (+15,938 contracts over that period) on bearishness before this week’s resumption back into higher bearish levels.

Large speculator bets have been on a strong bearish trend over the past few months with the net speculator positions going from +2,126 contracts on April 23rd to a total of -28,755 contracts this week. This included a streak of higher bearish bets in eleven out of twelve weeks (from April 23rd to July 9th) that pushed the speculator sentiment to the most bearish level since June of 2016.

Copper Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 24,737 contracts on the week. This was a weekly uptick of 4,535 contracts from the total net of 20,202 contracts reported the previous week.

Copper Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Copper Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $267.85 which was a shortfall of $-2.15 from the previous close of $270.0, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Market Reaction to Fed Cut Unexpected

Natural Gas, Bitcoin bucking today’s market trend

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

Led by Sales of HETLIOZ, Vanda Increases Quarterly Revenues by 25%

By The Life Science Report

Source: Streetwise Reports   08/01/2019

Shares of Vanda Pharmaceuticals traded nearly 30% higher after the company released Q2/19 earnings and positive sales trends for both HETLIOZ and Fanapt.

Biopharmaceutical maker Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. (VNDA:NASDAQ) yesterday announced financial and operational results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2019.

The company indicated in the report that total net product sales from HETLIOZ and Fanapt increased by 24% to $59.1 million in Q2/19 compared to $47.7 million in Q1/19 and were up 25% in the current quarter compared to $47.4 million in Q2/18. Net product sales for HETLIOZ increased by 31% to $37.8 million in Q2/19 versus $29.0 million in Q1/19 and were up 35% versus $28.0 million in Q2/18.

Net product sales for Fanapt were $21.2 million in the Q2/19, a 13% increase versus $18.8 million in Q1/19 and increased 10% over the $19.3 million for Q2/18. The firm reported that non-GAAP net income nearly doubled in the quarter to $15.0 million in Q2/19, or $0.28 per share, compared to a non-GAAP net income of $7.7 million, or $0.15 per share for Q2/18.

Vanda’s President and CEO Mihael H. Polymeropoulos, M.D. commented, “The exceptional commercial performance of HETLIOZ and Fanapt positions Vanda to continue on its path of growth and long term value creation…The recently announced positive results from the tradipitant motion sickness study further enhance the potentially broad therapeutic utility of tradipitant as a treatment option for the millions of patients with gastroparesis, motion sickness and atopic dermatitis.”

In the report the company also provided some full-year 2019 revenue guidance indicating it expects combined net product sales from both HETLIOZ and Fanapt in the range of $215 to $225 million. More specifically, it guided $137–143 million for HETLIOZ, and $78–82 million for Fanapt. The firm further raised its projected year-end cash position to greater than $275 million, up from prior guidance of $260 million.

Vanda provided key research and development highlights for Tradipitant, as well as both HETLIOZ and Fanapt. In July 2019, the company announced positive results from a Phase 2 clinical study (Motion Sifnos) of tradipitant in motion sickness, and further indicated that Vanda intends to initiate a Phase 3 program in motion sickness in 2019 with a plan to file for marketing authorization in 2020.

Vanda Pharmaceuticals describes itself as a biopharmaceutical company focused on the development and commercialization of therapies to address unmet medical needs. Its product portfolio includes HETLIOZ (tasimelteon) for treatment of non-24-hour sleep-wake disorder (Non-24) and Fanapt (iloperidone) used for the treatment of schizophrenia. The firm’s pipeline includes Tradipitant (VLY-686), a small molecule neurokinin-1 receptor antagonist that is in clinical development for the treatment of chronic pruritus in atopic dermatitis; Trichostatin A, a small molecule histone deacetylase (HDAC) inhibitor; and AQW051, which is a Phase 2 alpha-7 nicotinic acetylcholine receptor partial agonist with indications for the treatment of central nervous system disorders.

Vanda’s shares opened nearly 20% higher today at $15.50 (+$3.05, +19.68%) over the prior day’s closing price of $12.45. In early trading shares traded up higher than 36% in the range of $14.72 to $17.00, and closed at $15.79 (+3.34, +26.83%).

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Disclosure:
1) Stephen Hytha compiled this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an independent contractor. He or members of his household own securities of the following companies mentioned in the article: None. He or members of his household are paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None.
2) The following companies mentioned in this article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: None. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees.
3) Comments and opinions expressed are those of the specific experts and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
4) The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the interview or the decision to write an article until three business days after the publication of the interview or article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases.

( Companies Mentioned: VNDA:NASDAQ,
)

Oil & Gas Firm’s Q2/19 Results Drive Lower Target Price, Same Rating

The Energy Report

Source: Streetwise Reports   07/31/2019

The rationale and an explanation of the downgrade are discussed in a CIBC report.

In a July 29 research note, analyst Dave Popowich reported that CIBC reiterated its Outperformer rating on Vermilion Energy Corp. (VET:TSX) because it “consistently ranks among the highest netback producers in our coverage universe.”

However, CIBC’s “conviction has decreased somewhat following Q2/19 results,” added Popowich, and accordingly, the bank revised its estimates on Vermilion. For one, it reduced its cash flow per share forecast for 2019 by 3% to $5.85 and for 2020, by 6% to $5.52. Also, it projects year-end 2019 net debt at 2.2 times.

Those and other changes led CIBC to decrease its target price on Vermilion to $32.50 per share from CA$35. In comparison, it is currently trading at around $23.62 per share.

Of concern to CIBC is that Vermilion’s “rising financial leverage is increasingly becoming a key risk to the stock’s valuation,” Popowich pointed out, particularly since the company chose to spend capital rather than reduce debt in H2/19. Investors are questioning whether Vermilion will be able to sustain its capex requirements and its dividend.

Vermilion should be able to manage both, CIBC estimated based on its 2019 adjusted payout ratio calculation of 102%, recently up from 100%. However, “execution will be critical for Vermilion through year-end,” Popowich commented. If the company can “produce near the high end of its annual guidance range, it will be much better equipped to address questions about the sustainability of its business model.”

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Disclosure:
1) Doresa Banning compiled this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an independent contractor. She or members of her household own securities of the following companies mentioned in the article: None. She or members of her household are paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None.
2) The following companies mentioned in this article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: None. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees.
3) Comments and opinions expressed are those of the specific experts and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
4) The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the interview or the decision to write an article until three business days after the publication of the interview or article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases.

Disclosures from CIBC, Vermilion Energy Inc., July 29, 2019

Analyst Certification:
Each CIBC World Markets Corp./Inc. research analyst named on the front page of this research report, or at the beginning of any subsection hereof, hereby certifies that (i) the recommendations and opinions expressed herein accurately reflect such research analyst’s personal views about the company and securities that are the subject of this report and all other companies and securities mentioned in this report that are covered by such research analyst and (ii) no part of the research analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by such research analyst in this report.

Analysts employed outside the U.S. are not registered as research analysts with FINRA. These analysts may not be associated persons of CIBC World Markets Corp. and therefore may not be subject to FINRA Rule 2241 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

Potential Conflicts of Interest:
Equity research analysts employed by CIBC World Markets Corp./Inc. are compensated from revenues generated by various CIBC World Markets Corp./Inc. businesses, including the CIBC World Markets Investment Banking Department. Research analysts do not receive compensation based upon revenues from specific investment banking transactions. CIBC World Markets Corp./Inc. generally prohibits any research analyst and any member of his or her household from executing trades in the securities of a company that such research analyst covers. Additionally, CIBC World Markets Corp./Inc. generally prohibits any research analyst from serving as an officer, director or advisory board member of a company that such analyst covers.

In addition to 1% ownership positions in covered companies that are required to be specifically disclosed in this report, CIBC World Markets Corp./Inc. may have a long position of less than 1% or a short position or deal as principal in the securities discussed herein, related securities or in options, futures or other derivative instruments based thereon.

Recipients of this report are advised that any or all of the foregoing arrangements, as well as more specific disclosures set forth below, may at times give rise to potential conflicts of interest.

Important Disclosure Footnotes for Vermilion Energy Inc. (VET)

· CIBC World Markets Inc. expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Vermilion Energy Inc. in the next 3 months.

( Companies Mentioned: VET:TSX; VET:NYSE,
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