InvestMacro

By Orbex

Dollar Steady

The US dollar has started the week on a slightly softer note with the USD index trading in the red over the European morning on Monday. News over the weekend of potential US capital limits on Chinese companies is the first headline of the week. However, the US administration denied the rumors and market impact has been fairly limited at this point. USD index trades 98.78 last.

EUR Lower Amidst Data Woes

EURUSD has started the week a little lower despite a softer US dollar. Last week a range of weaker-than-expected data sets weighed heavily on EUR. This week, further Eurozone data sets, as well as Eurozone CPI, will be watched. Any downside surprises will keep EUR pressured over the week. EURUSD trades 1.0932 last, sitting just above the 1.0914 support for now.

GBP Boosted By Better Growth

GBPUSD has been stronger so far today with price trading 1.2326 last, though still sitting below the 1.2382 level for now. Data released by Office for National Statistics this morning showed that the economy expanded by 0.6% in January-March, an increase from the prior 0.5%. The move was largely attributed to stockpiling ahead of Brexit. However, the data also showed that the economy contracted 0.2% over Q2 presenting recession risks should Q3 be shown to have contracted also.

Quiet Start For Risk Markets

Risk assets have had a muted start to the week. News of the potential US capital restrictions on Chinese companies, as well as news of President Trump’s potential impeachment, has capped upside for now. Reduced US rate cut expectations have also stalled the rally in equities. However, for now, SPX500 remains above the 2940.33 level, keeping the prospect of further upside alive.

Gold Goes Lower

Safe havens have had a mixed start to the week with JPY slightly higher against USD while gold is firmly under pressure once again. XAUUSD trades 1486.57 last as the diminished forecasts for further US rate cuts this year has taken the shine out of the gold trade. USDJPY trades 107.92 last with price hovering below the recent September highs around 108.47.

Crude Slides Further

Oil prices have been lower again at the start of the week as ongoing concerns over the demand outlook continue to bunt upside. The EIA reported a further build in US crude stores last week along with rising US crude production. Indeed, even better manufacturing data out of China overnight has failed to stoke any buying in crude which currently trades 55.43.

CAD Under Pressure

USDCAD has been higher today. Weakness in crude prices is keeping CAD capped though a softer dollar means that no real momentum has been seen. USDCAD trades 1.3241 last with price recovering from last week’s approach to the 1.3207 level.

AUD Weak Ahead of RBA

AUDUSD is weaker today. The market is widely expecting the RBA to announce a further rate cut at this month’s meeting this week. The bank remained on hold over the last month though recent comments from Governor Lowe have boosted expectations for a further cut. Given the reduced US rate cut expectations, such a move could be firmly bearish for AUDUSD which currently trades .6752.

By Orbex

By IFCMarkets

Getting ready to publication of USDA review

Getting ready for the publication of the U.S. Grain Review Department of Agriculture (USDA). Will the wheat quotations grow?

The data will be released on Monday, September 30, 2019 at 16-00 GMT. According to a consensus forecast of analysts, in a USDA survey, US wheat inventories will amount to 2.318 billion bushels, which is 3% lower than last year. USDA is expected to estimate production of American wheat in the 2019/20 agricultural season at 1.968 billion bushels. This is 0.6% less than the August forecast. This fall, wheat harvesting may be delayed due to rainy weather in western Canada and the United States. Grain prices on the Euronext European Exchange reached a 6-week maximum level due to the active purchases by countries such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia amid a weak euro. Australia previously cut its wheat crop forecast by 10% due to drought.

On the daily timeframe Wheat: D1 is in uptrend. Various technical analysis indicators have generated signals to increase. Further growth of quotations is possible in case of an increase in global demand amid a decline in inventories of producing countries.

• The Parabolic indicator demonstrates a signal to increase.
• The Bolinger bands narrowed, indicating low volatility. Both Bollinger Lines Slope Up.
• The RSI indicator is above the mark of 50. No divergence observed.
• MACD indicator gives a bullish signal.

The bullish momentum may develop if Wheat exceeds its last upper fractal and 200-day moving average line: 493. This level can be used as an entry point. The initial stop lose may be placed below the last 3 lower fractals, the Parabolic signal and the lower Bollinger line: 450. After opening the pending order, the stop shall be moved following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal minimum. Thus, we are changing the potential profit/loss to the breakeven point. More risk-averse traders may switch to the 4-hour chart after the trade and place a stop loss moving it in the direction of the trade. If the price meets the stop level (450) without reaching the order (493), we recommend to cancel the order: the market sustains internal changes that were not taken into account.

Technical Analysis Summary

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets

By Orbex

Reports emerged on late Friday that the US was considering blocking investments in China. The deliberations which are not yet finalized are aimed at restricting US investments in China’s markets.

A lack of regulatory oversight was cited as one of the reasons for considering this move. The report comes as US-China trade talks will be resuming from October 10^th.

Eurozone Economic Sentiment Falls to 4-year Low

Economic sentiment in the eurozone fell to the lowest levels since September 2015.

Data from the European Commission released on Friday showed that the economic sentiment index fell to 101.7 from 103.1 in August. This was lower than the estimates of a decline to 103.0.

The commission said that the declines were because of deteriorating confidence in the industry.

EURUSD to Bounce Off the Support Area

The currency pair closed on Friday with some modest gains. Price action looks to have stalled near the support area of 1.0944 – 1.0925. However, price needs to follow through with some gains to the upside to confirm the reversal. If the bullish momentum picks up, the currency pair could attempt rising to 1.1091.

UK Government Plans to Present a New Brexit Deal

The British government plans to present a detailed proposal this week to break the Brexit deadlock, on the back of a Tory party conference.

Expectations are for the new plan to set out a solution on the Irish backstop which has become the main point of disagreement.

GBPUSD Likely to Break the Support

The currency pair remains bearish as it broke past the initial support area of 1.2370. This comes following the downside breakout from the rising wedge pattern.

The bearish momentum, however, pushed GBPUSD down to the next support area of 1.2291. If this support breaks, then we expect to see sharper declines. The next main support is seen at 1.2082.

Oil Prices Resume Slide as Tensions Ease

Crude oil prices resumed their declines after the tensions in the Middle East showed signs of easing. Saudi Arabia declared a partial cease-fire in Yemen, a move that could potentially soften the tensions in the region.

WTI Crude Oil Declines to Test the 54.42 Support

Price action in crude oil has been somewhat volatile. Various attempts to extend lower were met with strong price rejection. However, the overall trend in crude oil remains to the downside.

Amid a lack of the bearish momentum, price action could remain somewhat range-bound before falling lower. The support area of 54.42 will also mark the gap being filled.

By Orbex

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After breaking 1.0926 upwards, EURUSD has completed the ascending correction at 1.0955. According to the main scenario, today the price is expected to continue falling towards 1.0916. Later, the market may start another growth to reach 1.0930 and then resume trading downwards with the target at 1.0905. if the pair reaches 1.0950 and breaks it, the instrument may continue the correction towards 1.0966 (an alternative scenario).

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

After rebounding from 1.2320 downwards, GBPUSD is falling to reach 1.2261. After that, the instrument may start a new correction towards 1.2320 and then resume trading downwards with the target at 1.2242.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF is consolidating around 0.9955; right now, it is forming one more ascending structure to reach this level. Possibly, the pair may start a new decline towards 0.9898 to continue the correction (an alternative scenario). According to the main scenario, the price is expected to continue trading inside the uptrend with the target at 0.9966.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY has returned to 107.82. Possibly, today the pair may grow to break 108.02 and then continue trading upwards to reach 108.23. After that, the instrument may start a new correction with the target at 107.80.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is consolidating above 0.6747. Possibly, the pair may break this level to the downside and then continue falling to reach 0.6737 at least. Later, the market may form one more ascending structure with the target at 0.6777.

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB continues consolidating above 64.05. Possibly, the pair may grow to reach 64.55 and then start another decline to break 63.88. Later, the market may continue trading inside the downtrend with the target at 63.30.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

After completing the descending wave at 1.32220, USDCAD has formed another ascending impulse towards 1.3260; right now, it is correcting towards 1.3228. After that, the instrument may grow to break 1.3249 and then continue trading upwards with the first target at 1.3267.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is falling with the target at 1484.55. After that, the instrument may start a new growth with the target at 1493.77 and then continue trading downwards to reach 1472.00.

BRENT

Brent has completed the ascending impulse at 62.66 along with the correction towards 61.30; right now, it is moving towards 64.55. Later, the market may form a new descending structure to reach 62.60 and then continue trading upwards with the first target at 67.77.

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

BTCUSD continues falling towards 7790.00. Today, the pair may reach this level and then start a new growth to reach 8046.00. After that, the instrument may fall to reach 7510.00 or even continue the downtrend towards 7373.00.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex

The British Pound is still very sensitive to any news somehow relating to the Brexit.

The European Union insists on more detailed and legally correct negotiations of the Irish border issue and says that it should be done very quickly. The EU is “firmly united”, as the major European negotiator Michel Barnier said last Friday, and has to protect its own interests.

At the same time, the Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union Stephen Barclay believes that there are a lot of things to negotiate ahead. In his opinion, the deal is possible in case both parties have goodwill to clinch it, but policymakers still have too many issues to discuss.

The United Kingdom is set to exit the European Union in a month, on October 31st, but no documents have been ready so far. The longer the story, the more critical and bleaker the British political turmoil and economic outlook.

In the H4 chart, GBPUSD is moving downwards; this movement may be considered as the third wave inside the downtrend. Today, the pair may reach 1.2260 and then start one more ascending structure towards 1.2320. Later, the market may fall to reach 1.2242 and then start a new correction with the target at 1.2360. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator: its signal line is moving below 0. However, the line may move upwards, thus confirming the correction. After the correction, the downtrend may resume.

As we can see in the H1 chart, GBPUSD is falling with the target at 1.2261. After reaching it, the pair may correct towards 1.2318. Later, the market may resume trading downwards to reach 1.2241 and then start another correction towards 1.2370. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by Stochastic Oscillator: its signal line is moving above 50 and getting closer to the “overbought area”. In the future, the indicator is expected to rebound from 80 and resume falling to reach 20.

Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the authors’ particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By Orbex

It is going to be a busy week as investors look to a new month.

Two key events will stand out: the RBA’s interest rate decision and the economic data from the United States.

We are also expecting monthly PMI reports across various developed economies. These will show us how the global manufacturing and services sectors are doing.

With concerns of a slowdown, the data over the week will give preliminary insights into some of the key economies. This, in turn, will no doubt become the driving factor for monetary policy decisions.

Here’s a brief look at the key economic events coming up for the week ahead.

USD Looks to a Busy Week Ahead

The central bank has cut rates twice already this year. Investors are penciling in a < 2% GDP growth rate for the three months ending September.

As a result, the data this week will give a preliminary view of the US economy.

ISM’s Manufacturing & Services Activity to Slow

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will be releasing its monthly manufacturing and non-manufacturing index. Economists expect to see a slower pace of activity on both counts.

The ISM manufacturing PMI fell below the 50-index last month in August. However, for September, economists are optimistic that activity will pick up and rebound.

The consensus estimates point to manufacturing activity rising to 50.4, after falling to 49.1 in August. But is this the start of a pickup in activity or just a small rebound?

The services sector activity on the other is expected to ease from 56.4 in August to 55.1 in September. This marks a slowdown even in the services sector which has managed to buck the trend so far.

Payrolls Report Could Give More Insights.. or Maybe Not!

The US payrolls data comes with the ADP’s private payrolls report on Wednesday. Private hiring is forecast to show 140k in September, following 195k headline print in August.

Friday’s payrolls report will, of course, steal the limelight. The US unemployment rate is set to hold steady at 3.7%. The monthly payrolls are forecast to rise by 140k, slightly higher from August’s 130k.

Wage growth is forecast to slow to a pace of 0.3% after rising 0.4% the month before.

RBA to Cut Rates

A busy week from Australia will see various economic reports as well as the monetary policy meeting from the RBA. The central bank will be following its peers into maintaining a dovish monetary policy cycle.

Economic Data to Take a Backseat

On the economic front, this week will see the building approvals data coming out on Tuesday. Forecasts point to a 2.1% increase in building approvals. This follows a massive 9.1% decline earlier.

Later in the week, the retail sales report is due on Friday. Australia’s retail sales are forecast to rise by 0.5% on the month. This marks a modest pickup after retail sales fell 0.1% earlier.

RBA set to Continue With its Easing Bias

The RBA is due to meet on Tuesday and is set to cut the cash rate from the current 1.00% to 0.75%.

This marks a rate cut that would push Australia’s interest rates to new historic lows. Recent declines in the labor market and sluggish inflation growth continue to plague policymakers.

UK PMI’s to Continue Easing

For the UK markets, it will be an interesting week. The Brexit deadline of October 31^st looms even closer. With still no deal in sight, investors will be looking to see how the economy has fared.

IHS Markit will be releasing the monthly PMI reports for the UK.  The manufacturing, construction and services PMI numbers will remain subdued.

The report will highlight the toll that the Brexit uncertainty is taking on UK businesses.

By Orbex

Article By RoboForex.com

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after finishing the correctional uptrend at 61.8% fibo, XAUUSD is forming another descending wave. If the price breaks the low at 1483.49, the mid-term descending tendency may continue to reach 50.0%, 61.8%, and 76.0% fibo at 1478.85, 1460.25, and 1438.10 respectively. The key resistance is at 1557.00.

In the H1 chart, there was a convergence on MACD when the price reached the low, which may indicate a local pullback. After the pair breaks the local low, the short-term target will be the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 1463.60 and 1451.50 respectively.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the pair is about to complete the correctional uptrend and may start a new descending wave towards 50.0%, 61.8%б and 76.0% fibo at 0.9821, 0.9783, and 0.9737 respectively. However, if the instrument breaks the high at 0.9983, it may continue growing to reach the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 0.9980 and 1.0010 respectively.

In the H1 chart, the divergence made the pair complete the ascending wave and start a new decline, which has already reached 50.0% fibo at 0.9897. In the future, the price may continue falling towards 61.8% and 76.0% fibo at 0.9884 and 0.9869 respectively, and the low at 0.9844. The resistance is at 0.9949.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.09202
• Open: 1.09406
• % chg. over the last day: +0.16
• Day’s range: 1.09302 – 1.09462
• 52 wk range: 1.0905 – 1.1652

The US dollar continues to hold positions relative to a basket of world currencies. Global political uncertainty and concerns over the expansion of the trade war between Washington and Beijing remain in the spotlight for investors. Currently, EUR/USD quotes are consolidating. In the near future, a technical correction of the EUR/USD currency pair is not ruled out. The key trading range is 1.09100-1.09450. We recommend opening positions from these marks.

At 10:55 (GMT+3:00) expect a labor report from Germany.

Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price crossed 50 MA.

The MACD histogram is located near the 0 .

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which indicates a possible correction of EUR/USD quotes.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.09100, 1.08700
• Resistance levels: 1.09450, 1.09650, 1.09900

If the price consolidates below 1.09100, expect the quotes to fall toward 1.08800-1.08600.

Alternatively, EUR/USD could rise toward 1.09700-1.09900.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.23188
• Open: 1.22865
• % chg. over the last day: -0.28
• Day’s range: 1.22758 – 1.22995
• 52 wk range: 1.1995 – 1.3385

The GBP/USD currency pair continues to consolidate after a sharp decline last week. The technical picture is ambiguous. The pound is still under pressure due to the possible consequences of the hard Brexit. At the moment, the local support and resistance levels are: 1.22750 and 1.23250, respectively. We are expecting important statistics from the UK. We recommend opening positions from key levels.

At 11:30 (GMT+3:00), UK will publish a GDP report.

Indicators signal the strength of sellers: the price has fixed below 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, but above the signal line, which gives a weak signal to sell GBP/USD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which indicates bullish sentiment.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.22750, 1.22400
• Resistance levels: 1.23250, 1.23750, 1.24150

If the price consolidates below 1.22750, expect a further fall toward 1.22400-1.22200.

Alternatively, the quotes could grow toward 1.23700-1.23900.

Registration

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.32649
• Open: 1.32362
• % chg. over the last day: -0.17
• Day’s range: 1.32302 – 1.32470
• 52 wk range: 1.2727 – 1.3664

CAD is still in lateral movement. There is no defined trend. At the moment, the following local support and resistance levels can be distinguished: 1.32300 and 1.32550, respectively. The USD/CAD currency pair has a downside potential. We recommend paying attention to the dynamics of oil quotes. Positions must be opened from key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 30.09.2019 is calm.

Indicators do not give accurate signals.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone and below the signal line, which indicates the development of a bearish sentiment.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which also gives a signal to sell USD/CAD.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.32300, 1.32100, 1.31800
• Resistance levels: 1.32550, 1.32800, 1.33000

If the price consolidates below 1.32300, expect the quotes to fall toward 1.32000-1.31800.

Alternatively, the quotes could grow toward 1.32700-1.32900.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 107.827
• Open: 107.965
• % chg. over the last day: +0.10
• Day’s range: 107.752 – 108.012
• 52 wk range: 104.97 – 114.56

The technical picture on the USD/JPY currency pair is still ambiguous. The trading instrument is in lateral movement. Demand for safe haven currencies remains at a fairly high level. At the moment, the local support and resistance levels are: 107.650 and 108.000, respectively. Investors expect additional drivers. We recommend that you pay attention to the dynamics of yield on US government bonds. Positions must be opened from key levels.

Mixed economic releases from Japan were published during the Asian trading session.

Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price crossed 50 MA.

The MACD histogram is near 0.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which indicates a bearish sentiment.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 107.650, 107.350, 107.000
• Resistance levels: 108.000, 108.250, 108.450

If the price consolidates below 107.650, expect the quotes to fall toward 107.350-107.200.

Alternatively, the quotes could grow toward 108.300-108.450.

by JustForex

by JustForex

The greenback continues to hold positions against currency majors. The dollar index (#DX) approached annual highs. Global political uncertainty and the trade conflict between Washington and Beijing are still in the focus of attention. The British pound is under pressure due to the possible consequences of the “hard” Brexit. The Bank of England representative, Michael Saunders, who is committed to tightening monetary policy, said that continuous uncertainty in the country’s economy would lead to the interest rate decline.

The New Zealand dollar continued to lose ground against the US currency amid weak data on business confidence in New Zealand. Germany published rather optimistic statistics on the labor market for September. The Office for National Statistics reported that the country’s GDP growth counted to 1.3% (YoY) in the second quarter compared to market expectations of 1.2%. The unemployment rate in the Eurozone fell from 7.5% to 7.4%.

Oil quotes continue to show negative dynamics. At the moment, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing the $55.25 mark per barrel.

Market Indicators

On Friday, there was the bearish sentiment in the US stock markets: #SPY (-0.54%), #DIA (-0.33%), #QQQ (-1.24%).

The 10-year US government bonds yield has moved away from local highs. At the moment, the indicator is at the level of 1.69-1.70%.

• At 16:45 (GMT+3:00) we expect Chicago PMI.

by JustForex

By CentralBankNews.info

The Philippine central bank lowered its reserve requirement for banks by another 100 basis points to boost liquidity in domestic markets and credit activity, the day after cutting its benchmark interest rate for the third time this year.

In a statement from Sept. 27, Bangko Sentral Ng Pilipinas (BSP) said the new reserve requirement for universal and commercial banks would be lowered to 15 percent as of the first week of November.

Between May and July this year BSP also lowered its reserve requirement in three stages by 200 basis points and the bank’s governor, Benjamin Diokno, has said he aims to lower the rate to a single digit by 2023.
For thrift banks the reserve requirement will be lowered to 5.0 percent from 6.0 percent and for rural banks to 3.0 percent from 4.0 percent.

In addition to boosting liquidity in the domestic markets, BSP said the cut in the reserve requirement was in line with its agenda to reform the financial sector and make it more efficient by lowering the costs of financial intermediation.

On Sept. 26 BSP cut its policy rates, including the overnight reserve repurchase rate (RRP) by 25 basis points to 4.0 percent, to reinforce market confidence amid a benign outlook for inflation.

BSP also lowered its forecast for inflation to average 2.5 percent this year, down from the August forecast of 2.6 percent, in the lower end of the bank’s inflation target range of 3.0 percent, plus/minus 1 percentage point.

Inflation in the Philippines has been trending downward since hitting a 10-year high of 6.7 percent in September and October last year in response to new taxes and higher food prices, and fell to 1.7 percent in August from 2.4 percent in July.

The economy of the Philippines slowed to an annual rate of 5.5 percent in the second quarter from 5.6 percent in the first quarter, partly due to a delay in passing a 2019 national budget that includes funds for President Rodrigo Duterte’s ambitious “Build, Build, Build” infrastructure program.

www.CentralBankNews.info