InvestMacro

By Orbex

Need For Trade Talks Resolution Still Growing

The pressure for an end to the US-China trade war which has been raging now for just shy of two years continues to build.

The latest CPB World Trade Monitor data showed that global trade contracted 1.3% in September. This fell into negative territory from the prior reading of 0.5% in August.

The release from the CPB comes on the back of a series of downward revisions to global growth forecasts from the IMF this year. The group now expects global growth to hit its lowest levels since the financial crisis. A plethora of central banks has shared this view over recent months. And many of them are also revising growth forecasts lower.

Signing Date Still Due

The US and China had been scheduled to sign off on the phase-one trade deal at the APEC meeting in Chile. However, the meeting was canceled amidst the outbreak of protests and disorder in Chile.

With no new signing date agreed, the markets began to show concern as talks appeared to lose momentum. Speaking last week, Trump was keen to reassure markets that a deal was still coming. However, his tone and comments once again prompted uncertainty.

High-Level Talks Continue

This week, however, risk appetite lifted in response to reports that high-level officials from both sides engaged in telephone calls to keep negotiations moving.

The Chinese Commerce Ministry noted on Tuesday that Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer spoke on the phone.

They discussed “core concerns” and “reached a consensus on how to resolve these issues”. The calls reportedly ended with the two key negotiators committing to keep in close contact and keep talks moving forward.

“Core Issues”

One of these “core issues” is China’s demand that all existing trade tariffs be removed.

This was a major obstacle to talks earlier in the year. And, with the US still adamant that it won’t roll-back tariffs, it is hard to see how this will be resolved. However, for now, both sides appear confident that a deal is coming.

Last week, President Xi Jinping of China told a US business delegation in China that Beijing is committed to working “for a phase one agreement on the basis of mutual respect and equality”

Global Manufacturing Remains Weak

The recent spate of weakness in global manufacturing PMIs has also shone a light on the increasing need for an end to the trade standoff.

With manufacturing readings in the US, UK and the eurozone sitting in contractionary territory (by most counts), the impact of the trade war is clearly visible.

The next round of Chinese manufacturing data is due this month. And, after the last reading showed factory activity falling for a fifth straight month, any further weakness will add weight to the pressure on China to sign a deal.

Technical Perspective

The rally in USDCNH over the last month is starting to show signs of topping out. Price has recently continued higher within the local bull channel. However, the RSI indicator has been moving lower, highlighting bearish divergence. Price has now started to stall and although the channel low is holding, for now, there is a risk of a break lower. This puts focus on the longer-term structural support and major psychological level of 7.0000.

By Orbex

By IFCMarkets

The next round of US-China trade talks is expected

Representatives of the United States and China held talks regarding the conclusion of the first phase of a trade deal. Will the NZDJPY rise?

Such a movement is observed in case of the strengthening of the New Zealand dollar and weakening of the Japanese yen. China is the most important trading partner of New Zealand. In case of successful completion of a trade dispute with the US, its economy may get an extra boost for development, which will increase the demand for New Zealand raw materials and goods. In turn, the Japanese currency is a “safe-haven asset.” Demand for it decreases in case of a reduction in global foreign trade risks and conclusion of an interim agreement between China and the US. At the end of last week, the Chinese leadership invited U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to negotiate in Beijing. Retail sales for October will be released in Japan on November 28, and unemployment and industrial production data for October and inflation in Tokyo will come out on November 29. These indicators may affect the exchange rate of the yen. The New Zealand trade balance for October will be released on November 27, and the economic review of the National Bank of New Zealand will come out on November 28.

On the daily timeframe, NZDJPY: D1 breached up the resistance line of the downtrend and moved into an uptrend. A number of technical analysis indicators formed buy signals. The further price growth is possible in case of positive news about US-China trade talks.

• The Parabolic indicator gives a bullish signal.
• The Bollinger bands have narrowed, which indicates low volatility. Both Bollinger bands are titled up.
• The RSI indicator is above 50. It has formed a positive divergence.
• The MACD indicator gives a bullish signal.

The bullish momentum may develop in case NZDJPY exceeds the 4 last fractal highs and the upper Bollinger band at 70.1. This level may serve as an entry point. The initial stop loss may be placed below the October low, the Parabolic signal and the lower Bollinger band at 66.6. After opening the pending order, we shall move the stop to the next fractal low following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the potential profit/loss to the breakeven point. More risk-averse traders may switch to the 4-hour chart after the trade and place there a stop loss moving it in the direction of the trade. If the price meets the stop level (66.6) without reaching the order (70.1), we recommend closing the position: the market sustains internal changes that were not taken into account.

Summary of technical analysis

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After finishing the correction at 1.1024 and then falling towards 1.1014, EURUSD is consolidating inside Triangle pattern. If later the price breaks this range to the upside at 1.1024, the market may continue the correction towards 1.1035; if to the downside at 1.1007 – resume trading inside the downtrend with the target at 1.0984.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD has broken 1.2874 to the downside; right now, it is consolidating around 1.2854. The main scenario implies that the price may continue trading inside the downtrend to reach 1.2798 and then start another correction to return to 1.2854. After that, the instrument may form a new descending structure with the short-term target at 1.2780.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF is still consolidating around 0.9974 without any particular direction. Possibly, today the pair may expand the range towards 0.9987 and then fall to return to 0.9974. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may form one more ascending structure towards 0.9999; if to the downside – start a new correction with the target at 0.9932.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY has almost reached its correctional target. Today, the pair may continue growing towards 109.16 and then start a new decline to reach 109.01, thus forming another consolidation range. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may form the third descending wave with the short-term target at 108.60.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD has returned to 0.6791; right now, it is consolidating around this level. Possibly, today the pair may form a new descending structure to reach 0.6763. Later, the market may continue trading upwards with the target at 0.6791.

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB is still consolidating around 64.04. Possibly, the pair may expand the range both ways towards 63.88 and 64.17 respectively. After that, the instrument may break it to the downside and fall with the target at 63.61.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

USDCAD has broken 1.3290 downwards. Possibly, the pair may continue falling with the short-term target at 1.3265. Later, the market may start a new correction to return to 1.3290.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

After completing another descending structure at 1450.35, Gold has returned to 1461.50; right now, it is moving downwards again. Possibly, the pair may reach 1446.84 and then return to 1461.50. Later, the market may start another decline with the target at 1444.00.

BRENT

Brent has broken 63.72. Possibly, the pair may grow to break 64.18 and then continue trading upwards to reach 64.50. After that, the instrument may start a new correction to return to 63.72 and then form one more ascending structure with the target at 65.60.

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

BTCUSD is consolidating around 7081.00. Today, the pair may start another decline towards 6930.00 and then continue trading upwards to return to 7081.00. Later, the market may form a new descending structure with the short-term target at 6864.00.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

By Orbex

Top trade negotiators of China and the United States apparently held a phone conference on Tuesday. Both parties said that there is an increase in the chances of the “phase one deal” being reached.

A spokesperson from China said that both sides reached a consensus to properly resolve the trade-related issues.

Consumer Sentiment in Germany Improves for December: Gfk

The German institute Gfk, on Tuesday, said that the consumer sentiment in Germany improved for December. The index picked up to 9.6 points from November. The data revealed that economic and income expectations rose significantly for the month ahead.

Compared to the same period last year, consumer sentiment was still lower. This was attributed to the global economic slowdown and trade conflicts, including Brexit.

Support Holds Firm for EURUSD

The currency pair posted a modest rebound near the support area of the 1.1000 region. However, there is no upside momentum building up.

The Stochastics indicate weakness, with the indicator strongly in the oversold levels. In the near term, EURUSD will need to rise above 1.1030 to confirm further upside.

Sterling Falls as Labor Party Narrows Lead in Opinion Polls

The pound sterling fell on Tuesday after the latest opinion polls saw the trailing Labor party catching up. The opposition party narrowed the lead from 18 points to 11. The UK is set for an election on December 12th.

The Conservative party remains the favorite, with PM Boris Johnson set to go ahead with the Brexit deal if he achieves a majority in the UK parliament.

GBPUSD Slips Off Support Once Again

The currency pair broke past the support area of 1.2865 on Tuesday. However, the declines are continuing to consolidate near this price point. Therefore, there is a risk of a move back to the upside. Unless GBPUSD clears the previously established lows at 1.2825, we expect price action to remain near 1.2865.

Gold Prices Subdued Despite Drop in US Consumer Confidence

The latest consumer confidence report from the Conference Board showed a decline in the index. The CB Consumer confidence index fell to 125.5 in November, down from October’s 125.90.

The decline marks a fourth consecutive fall in the index. Yet, gold prices did not react much to the news. The risk-on sentiment seems to be keeping the price of the safe haven in check.

XAUUSD Attempting a Feeble Rebound

The precious metal was rather subdued on Tuesday. Price action is looking to bounce back higher. But the price level near 1462 is likely to act as resistance.

If the price gains are capped here, we could expect a move toward the lower support at 1445 in the near term. But keep an eye on the Stochastics indicator which is just rising up from the oversold levels. This could indicate a possible move back above the 1462 handle.

By Orbex

By George Prior

The price of Bitcoin has dropped in recent weeks, but cryptocurrencies are redefining and reshaping the financial system and their influence is growing. Denying this puts you on the wrong side of history.

This is the unequivocal message from the founder and CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organizations.

Nigel Green, chief executive of deVere Group, is speaking out as the price of Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market cap, has fallen 6 per cent since the beginning of the month, prompting many critics to launch tirades against digital money.

Indeed, on Tuesday NYU Economist Nouriel Roubini declared there to be a ‘total crypto-apocalypse.’

Mr Green comments: “Many crypto critics are becoming radicalized in their attacks.

“The reality is that there are peaks and troughs in all financial markets, the cryptocurrency market is not – and should not be – any different.

“Yet each time there is a dip in the market or a bout of volatility in cryptocurrencies, the crypto haters declare that digital currencies are finished – only for them to subsequently experience a rally.

“The same people do not make such extreme and unfounded statements with most other financial markets. I would suggest that most people saying these things do not understand the crypto sector as it is relatively young and/or have vested interests in older, traditional ones.”

He continues: “However, whether they like it or not, dyed-in-the-wool financial traditionalists need to accept that cryptocurrencies are here to stay.

“The world has changed in three significant ways that support the rise of cryptocurrencies.

“First, technological advancement. We are adopting more and more technology into our lives.  And the rate at which we’re doing so is increasing rapidly.

“Second, political shifts. There is an appetite, a huge and growing one, for currencies that are not controlled by central banks and governments.  Supporters believe that these digital currencies are part of the antidote to what they see as the ills caused by the traditional system.

“And third, globalization.  We’re all becoming increasingly interdependent and internationally-minded, and this, when harnessed properly, is an immensely positive force for trade, commerce and prosperity across the world.”

The deVere CEO concludes: “Temporary market dips or bouts of volatility can have negative outcomes, but to believe they are necessarily and entirely negative is misguided.

“In the crypto market, as in all financial markets, movements of this nature create important buying opportunities and can be capitalised upon by investors for their long-term financial gain.  Using them effectively can be a very rewarding strategy.

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement

By Orbex

Powell Positive on US Economy

The US dollar was higher over the last 24 hours. This is despite a weaker than expected CB consumer confidence number (125.5 vs 126.9 expected) in response to comments from Fed chair Powell.

Speaking figuratively, Powell noted that the US economy glass is “more than half full.” He stated that rates are at the appropriate level, provided that incoming data remains consistent with “generally good” conditions. USD index broke above 98.30 briefly but has since reversed.

EUR Drifting Lower

EURUSD has been lower today on the back of a stronger US dollar. In the midst of a quiet week for eurozone data, more optimistic comments from the Fed Chairman are leading EUR lower. The market still anticipates further easing from the ECB over coming months in line with continued data weakness. This should see EURUSD continue lower. EURUSD trades 1.1007 last, back below the 1.1024 level.

Elections Uncertainty Weighs on GBP

GBPUSD continues to hover within the recent consolidation between 1.2782 and 1.2974. The market has lost its directional bias over recent weeks as the uncertainty of the upcoming UK elections continues to cap flows. A Conservative party win remains the consensus forecast, which will keep focus on Johnsons deal being passed ahead of the January 31^st, 2020 deadline. GBPUSD trades 1.2851 last.

Risk Markets Rally

Risk assets continue higher into the middle of the week as optimism around a US-China trade deal keeps risk appetite buoyant. Both the US and China continue to reassure markets that a deal is coming. For now, traders are happy to go along with it.

Trump spoke yesterday to say that the US and China are very nearly done on the deal and continued to placate President Xi by praising his handling of the Hong Kong protests. Over the last 24 hours, SPX500 has broken into yet further record highs, trading 3148.18 last.

Risk On Sees Safe Havens Lower

Safe havens have both been lower today, in light of the rally in equities. The move higher in USD has also weighed on both gold and JPY which are trading lower today. USDJPY trades 109.16 last, with price moving back towards the week’s highs. XAUUSD trades 1458.95 last, hovering just above the November lows at 1445.19.

Crude Rises on Trade Deal Optimism

Oil prices have been higher today, shrugging off the report from the API yesterday which showed a further build in US crude stores. Speaking yesterday, Trump said that the US & China are in the “final throes” of a trade deal. The news has boosted risk appetite and lifted oil prices today.

Traders now wait on the headline EIA report later today. However, in light of the focus on the trade deal, it might not have as much impact as usual on price action. Crude trades 58.39 last, moving back towards the 60 level.

CAD Climbs On Oil Rally

USDCAD has been moving lower today. Despite the strength in USD, it seems that optimism over a trade deal and higher oil prices are helping boost CAD here. USDCAD trades 1.3268 last, moving back down into the middle of the 1.3207 – 1.33 range.

Trade Deal Hopes Boost AUD

AUDUSD has been well supported today also in response to better headlines about trade talks. The market had been concerned over the last couple of weeks that progress was stalling. In light of Trump’s comments yesterday, traders are now hopeful, keeping risk assets well supported. AUDUSD trades .6783 last.

By Orbex

Article By RoboForex.com

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.10129
• Open: 1.10157
• % chg. over the last day: +0.08
• Day’s range: 1.10029 – 1.10141
• 52 wk range: 1.0884 – 1.1623

The EUR/USD currency pair is still consolidating. There is no defined trend. The local support and resistance levels are 1.10000 and 1.10250, respectively. Investors continue to monitor the settlement of the trade conflict between Washington and Beijing. Donald Trump said yesterday that the parties are in the final stage of concluding the first stage of a trade agreement. Today, the US will release important economic statistics. We recommend opening positions from key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 27.11.2019:

• – Durable Goods Orders (US) – 15:30 (GMT+2:00);
• – GDP Report (US) – 15:30 (GMT+2:00);
• – Incomplete Real Estate Sales (US) – 17:00 (GMT+2:00);
• – Beige Book (US) – 21:00 (GMT+2:00);

The price fixed below 50 MA and 100 MA, which signals the power of the sellers.

The MACD histogram has gone down, which gives a signal to sell EUR/USD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is near the oversold zone, the %K line crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.10000, 1.09850
• Resistance levels: 1.10250, 1.10500, 1.10800

If the price consolidates below the round level of 1.10000, expect the quotes to fall toward 1.09700-1.09600.

Alternatively, the quotes can grow toward 1.10400-1.10600.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.28982
• Open: 1.28542
• % chg. over the last day: -0.30
• Day’s range: 1.28332 – 1.28464
• 52 wk range: 1.1959 – 1.3385

The GBP / USD currency pair again went down. Sterling reached key extremes. Currently, local support levels are: 1.28300 and 1.28600, respectively. Demand for the US dollar is recovering amid news of a possible trade deal between the US and China. Investors are awaiting new information regarding the Brexit process. Today we recommend paying attention to economic data from the USA. Open positions from key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 27.11.2019 is calm.

Indicators point to the power of sellers: the price is trading below 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone and below the signal line, which gives a strong signal to sell GBP/USD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line crosses the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.28300, 1.28000, 1.27700
• Resistance levels: 1.28600, 1.28950, 1.29250

If the price consolidates below 1.28300, expect further drop toward 1.28000-1.27700.

Alternatively, the quotes can grow toward 1.28850-1.29000.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.32954
• Open: 1.32712
• % chg. over the last day: -0.21
• Day’s range: 1.32709 – 1.32774
• 52 wk range: 1.2727 – 1.3664

During yesterday’s trades, the USD/CAD currency pair kept key extremes and started to decline. At the moment, the quotes are testing the support level of 1.32600. 1.32850 is the nearest resistance. We do not exclude a further decline in the trading instrument. We expect the release of important statistics. Open positions from key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 27.11.2019 is calm.

The price fixed below 100 MA, which signals the strength of sellers.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone and continues to decline, which gives a strong signal to sell USD/CAD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which also indicates a bearish sentiment.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.32600, 1.32350, 1.32150
• Resistance levels: 1.32850, 1.33000, 1.33250

If the price consolidates below 1.32600, expect the quotes to drop toward 1.32400-1.32200.

Alternatively, the quotes could grow toward 1.33000-1.33200.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 108.923
• Open: 109.034
• % chg. over the last day: +0.17
• Day’s range: 109.153 – 109.194
• 52 wk range: 104.97 – 114.56

The USD/JPY currency pair remains bullish. The trading tool has updated local highs once more. At the moment, the quotes are testing resistance at 109.200. Round level 109.00 is the immediate support. Demand for safe haven currencies remains at a rather low level against the backdrop of the prospects for resolving the trade conflict between the US and China. We recommend that you pay attention to the dynamics of yield on US government bonds. Open positions from key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 27.11.2019 is calm.

Indicators point to the power of buyers: the price has fixed above 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, above the signal line, which gives a strong signal to buy USD / JPY.

The Stochastic Oscillator is near the overbought zone, the %K line crosses the %D line. There are no signals.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 109.000, 108.850, 108.700
• Resistance levels: 109.200, 109.500

If the price consolidates above 109.200, expect the quotes to rise toward 109.400-109.600.

Alternatively, the quotes could fall below 109.000 and eventually reach 108.850-108.700.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

By Orbex

With the US markets heading into the Thanksgiving holiday tomorrow, there is a flurry of activity on the cards today. The economic data stands out, with the final estimates on the third-quarter GDP expected.

Besides the GDP report, we are also awaiting the durable goods order figures.

And in addition to these two main releases, a number of secondary data will also be coming out. Therefore, we are in for a busy afternoon when the US markets open!

GDP on Track to Miss Trump’s Target Growth Rate

According to economists, expectations are for the third-quarter GDP for the period ending September 2019 to remain at 1.9%. This will be an unchanged print from the second estimates.

The growth rate of 1.9% in the third quarter marks one of the slowest paces of growth in recent times.

The slowdown is attributed to a number of reasons including cyclical changes to the economic cycle. However, worsening the conditions was trade uncertainty.

The exception is that if the GDP surprises to the upside, there could be a bit of a reaction. However, it is unlikely to see growth rising above 2.5% for the moment.

Economists and monetary policy members have been widely anticipating the slowdown in the economy.

Therefore, it wasn’t much of a surprise to many. The Federal Reserve also responded by cutting interest rates three times during the course of the year.

However, it now expects that the current low rates to be enough to revive the economy in the near term.

This comes as the Washington administration predicts a 3.2% growth rate in 2019. The administration was also pinning hopes that US economic growth would remain above 3% for the next five years.

The United States and China have been locked in a trade war with each other. This has led to deteriorating sentiment in the markets and it has hit global trade as well. From a trader’s perspective, today’s GDP report is unlikely to have much of an impact.

US Durable Goods Orders to Remain Mixed

Growth in the third quarter was hit by other reasons as well. The large strikes at General Motors which saw tens of thousands of workers staying off work during the two weeks in September had a major impact.

Besides this, Boeing’s grounding of 737 jets also significantly contributed to lower growth figures.

Durable goods orders for October are forecast to show a 0.5% decline. This comes on the back of a 1.2% decline in September. Core durable goods orders, however, could rise by 0.2% on the month. This marks a modest improvement compared to the 0.4% decline earlier.

While there is an expectation for a modest improvement in the figures, the overall demand for long-lasting goods remains subdued. The expectations for an increase in the core durable goods orders come thanks to the prediction of increased demand from military aircraft.

The rebound in durable goods also comes as firms prepare for the holiday season ahead. This could give a temporary boost to the headline figure. Yet, still, the overall picture remains consistent with that of a weak growth patch in the final quarter of the year.

By Orbex

by JustForex

The US dollar is being traded without significant changes against a basket of currencies. Yesterday, the dollar index (#DX) closed in the negative zone (-0.07%). Investors also expect important US economic statistics to be released today.

Persisting optimism regarding the early resolution of the US-China trade conflict supports the US dollar. Donald Trump said the night before that Washington was in the final stages of work on a trade agreement with China, after a telephone conversation between representatives of both countries on Tuesday.

At the same time, the US President drew attention to the fact that the United States intended to support the protesters in Hong Kong, and it could strain relations with China. It should be also recalled that Washington will impose additional duties on Chinese imports on December 15, if both sides do not reach an agreement by this time.

The “black gold” prices show positive dynamics. Currently, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing the $58.55 mark per barrel. At 17:30 (GMT+2:00), US crude oil inventories will be published.

Market Indicators

Yesterday, there was the bullish sentiment in the US stock market: #SPY (+0.23%), #DIA (+0.20%), #QQQ (+0.19%).

The 10-year US government bonds yield has decreased slightly. At the moment, the indicator is at the level of 1.74-1.75%.

• – Core durable goods orders in the US at 15:30 (GMT+2:00);
• – US GDP data at 15:30 (GMT+2:00);
• – Pending home sales in the US at 17:00 (GMT+2:00);
• – Fed’s Beige Book at 21:00 (GMT+2:00).

by JustForex