InvestMacro

By Orbex

Gold prices consolidated into the close of last week with an ascending wedge pattern.

With price action below the 1655 handle, this suggests a possible pullback to the gains made in the past few days. But the bias remains mixed, however.

Only a close above 1655 will confirm further upside. Given the ascending wedge pattern, there is scope for a move back to the 1594 level of support.

But eventually, gold prices might have to slip back to the 1534 level to establish support more firmly.

By Orbex

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After finishing the ascending structure at 1.1146 and almost completing the third ascending wave, EURUSD is trading downwards. Possibly, the pair may start a new correction towards 1.0980, at least. Later, the market may form one more ascending structure with the target at 1.1236.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

After completing the ascending structure at 1.2470, GBPUSD is moving downwards. Today, the pair may correct towards 1.2185 and then form one more ascending structure with the target at 1.2650.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF has finished the descending wave at 0.9500; right now, it is growing to reach 0.9656, at least. Later, the market may resume trading downwards with the target at 0.9470.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY is still falling towards 106.80. Possibly, today the pair may reach this level and then start another correction towards 109.04. After that, the instrument may resume trading inside the downtrend with the target at 106.77.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD has reached its upside target at 0.6138; right now, it is forming a narrow consolidation range at the top of this wave. Possibly, the pair may grow towards 0.6220 and then resume trading downwards to reach 0.5822.

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB is still consolidating around 78.00; right now, it is growing towards 79.75. Possibly, the pair may reach this level and then resume trading downwards to break 77.10. Later, the market may continue falling with the target at 75.20.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

USDCAD continues falling. Today, the pair may correct to reach 1.4140. Later, the market may form a new descending structure with the target at 1.3755.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is falling towards 1597.50. Possibly, the pair may reach this level and then start another growth towards 1612.50. After that, the instrument may form a new descending structure with the first target at 1590.50.

BRENT

Brent is falling. Possibly, today the pair may reach 23.55 and then form one more ascending structure towards 25.25. Later, the market may fall to reach 23.23 and then resume trading upwards with the target at 25.95.

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

BTCUSD has broken 6150.00 to the downside. The main scenario implies that the instrument may correct towards 5300.00 and then start a new growth with the target at 7500.00.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.10279
• Open: 1.11161
• % chg. over the last day: +1.02
• Day’s range: 1.10608 – 1.11441
• 52 wk range: 1.0777 – 1.1494

The coronavirus pandemic continues to negatively impact the global economy. The U.S. president on Sunday extended the recommendation for self-isolation until the end of April. Earlier, Donald Trump signed a bill, granting financial support to the US economy in the amount of $2 trillion. Currently, the EUR/USD currency pair is consolidating in the range of 1.10400-1.11450. The trading instrument has the potential for further growth. We recommend opening positions from key levels.

At 17:00 (GMT+3:00) the US will publish an index of unfinished sales in the real estate market.

Indicators signal the power of buyers: the price has fixed above 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, indicating bullish sentiment.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line began to cross the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.10400, 1.09600, 1.08850
• Resistance levels: 1.11450, 1.12000

If the price consolidates above 1.11450, expect further growth to 1.12000.

Alternatively, the quotes could reduce toward 1.09700-1.09400.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.21546
• Open: 1.24262
• % chg. over the last day: +2.09
• Day’s range: 1.23176 – 1.24666
• 52 wk range: 1.1466 – 1.3516

On the GBP/USD currency pair, bullish sentiment still prevails. The pound reached key extremes. At the moment, GBP/USD quotes are testing the mirror support level of 1.23000. 1.24800 is the nearest resistance. Demand for USD remains at a fairly low level. We do not exclude further growth of the GBP/USD currency pair. Open positions from key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 30.03.2020 is calm.

Indicators signal the power of buyers: the price has fixed above 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, indicating a bullish sentiment.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.23000, 1.21450, 1.20150
• Resistance levels: 1.24800, 1.25500

If the price consolidates above 1.24800, expect further growth toward 1.25500-1.26000.

Alternatively, the quotes could descend toward 1.22000-1.21000.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.40446
• Open: 1.40170
• % chg. over the last day: +0.50
• Day’s range: 1.40076 – 1.40973
• 52 wk range: 1.2949 – 1.4668

The USD / CAD currency pair has stabilized. Looney is currently trading in a flat without a defined trend. The key support and resistance levels are: 1.39900 and 1.41450, respectively. Participants in financial markets expect additional drivers. We recommend you to pay attention to the dynamics of oil prices and open positions from key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 30.03.2020 is calm.

The indicators do not give accurate signals: the price crossed 50 MA.

The MACD histogram is near the 0 mark.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which gives a signal to buy USD/CAD.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.39900, 1.39250, 1.38700
• Resistance levels: 1.41450, 1.42750, 1.43750

If the price consolidates below 1.39900, expect further descend toward 1.39000-1.38000.

Alternatively, the quotes could grow toward 1.42400-1.43000.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 109.458
• Open: 107.644
• % chg. over the last day: -1.54
• Day’s range: 107.191 – 108.244
• 52 wk range: 101.19 – 112.41

USD/JPY quotes show a steady downtrend. The trading instrument has again set new local lows. At the moment, the USD/JPY currency pair is consolidating in the range 107.200-108.250. Demand for safe haven currencies has grown significantly. The yen can grow further against the greenback. We recommend you to pay attention to the dynamics of yield on US government bonds. Open positions from key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 30.03.2020 is calm.

Indicators signal the power of sellers: the price has fixed below 50 MA and 100 MA.

MACD is in the negative zone, indicating a bearish sentiment.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought zone, the% K line crossed the% D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 107.200, 106.000.
• Resistance levels: 108.250, 109.000, 110.000

If the price consolidates below 107.200, expect a drop toward 106.500-106.000.

Alternative ly, the quotes could grow toward 109.000-109.500.

by JustForex

By Hussein Sayed, Chief Market Strategist (Gulf & MENA), ForexTime

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

By Admiral Markets

Source: Economic Events March 30, 2020 – Admiral Markets’ Forex Calendar

After the DAX30 CFD failed to recapture 10,000 points over the last week, and had a relatively weak weekly close, it appears that both its biggest daily gain in points (+959.42), and the third biggest last Tuesday with 10.98%, has been nothing more than a bear market rally.

Bear market rallies everywhere have been just as sharp as what we saw over the last week. In US Equity markets, the Dow Jones extended its surge to 21% in three days by Thursday, bringing it back into bull market territory, but is only relevant from a “technical” standpoint.

Overall, we stay bearish with a potential trigger of a next leg down being potentially coming from the developments around the Coronavirus, particularly in the US, and if signs of an extended shutdown of the US economy intensify.

Technically, the main focus in the DAX30 CFD lies in the region around 9,150/200 points, where a sustainable break lower could trigger a next wave of selling down to 8,000 points and even lower in the days to come.

Above 9,150/200 points, another push up to and above 10,000 points stays on the table with a break above the pre-weekly highs around 10,150 points levelling the path to a deeper corrective move (still a bear market rally in the higher Daily time-frames) and bringing the mark around 11,000 points back into play.

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on DAX30 CFD Hourly chart (between March 11, 2020, to March 27, 2020). Accessed: March 27, 2020, at 10:00pm GMT

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on DAX30 CFD Daily chart (between December 7, 2018, to March 27, 2020). Accessed: March 27, 2020, at 10:00pm GMT – Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2015, the value of the DAX30 CFD increased by 9.56%, in 2016, it increased by 6.87%, in 2017, it increased by 12.51%, in 2018, it fell by 18.26%, in 2019, it increased by 26.44% meaning that after five years, it was up by 34.2%.

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Disclaimer: The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter “Analysis”) published on the website of Admiral Markets. Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:

1. This is a marketing communication. The analysis is published for informative purposes only and are in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
2. Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admiral Markets shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the Analysis.
3. Each of the Analysis is prepared by an independent analyst (Jens Klatt, Professional Trader and Analyst, hereinafter “Author”) based on the Author’s personal estimations.
4. To ensure that the interests of the clients would be protected and objectivity of the Analysis would not be damaged Admiral Markets has established relevant internal procedures for prevention and management of conflicts of interest.
5. Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the Analysis are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admiral Markets does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis. The presented figures refer that refer to any past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
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By Admiral Markets

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex

Crude Oil prices are falling on Monday. The most serious bearish attack took place early in the morning during the Asian trading session when WTI broke 20 USD for the first time since 2002. A barrel of Brent is now trading at 23.52 USD.

Four correctional waves couldn’t help Brent fix above 30 USD. Obviously, market players are not sure about the future outlook: starting from April 1st, oil-producing countries, members of the OPEC+, will not be bound by any agreement to limit the daily output, which means that by the middle of April cheap oil from Saudi Arabia may flood the market and make crude oil prices plummet much lower.

In addition to that, even if the capacity utilization rate of the Chinese industry reaches 98%, no one can be sure that the demand for energy commodities will be more or less stable. This is a fundamental factor that drags oil prices down.

In the H4 chart, after breaking 25.25 to the downside, Brent may continue falling to reach 22.00. Later, the market may start another growth to test 25.25 from below and then form a new descending structure towards 21.50. Later, the market may resume trading upwards with the first target at 30.00. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator: its signal line is moving below 0 inside the histogram area, thus indicating further decline on the price chart.

As we can see in the H1 chart, Brent has broken 24.00 downwards; right now, it is still falling with the short-term downside target at 23.23. After reaching this level, the pair may correct towards 25.25, at least, and then resume trading inside the downtrend to reach the target from the H1 chart at 22.00. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by Stochastic Oscillator: its signal line is moving below 50. Later, the line may fall to break 20 and then resume moving upwards, thus indicating a correction on the price chart.

Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the authors’ particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By CentralBankNews.info

Israel’s central bank, one of the few central banks to have kept interest rates steady this year, lowered its capital requirement for regulatory purposes by 1 percentage point “to ensure the banks’ ability to continue offering credit” during the coronavirus crises.
The Bank of Israel (BOI), which has kept its key rate steady since raising it in November 2018, said its banking supervision department lowered the requirement for large banks to maintain a minimum Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 9 percent from 10 percent and to 8 percent from 9 percent for midsized and small banks.
Israel’s banks entered the coronavirus crises in a strong position, BOI said, adding they have large capital surpluses, strong liquidity ratios and high-quality credit portfolios.

Given their central role in societies, banks have always been required to hold certain amounts of capital to absorb unexpected losses. Years ago, capital meant gold or silver but today it comprises a many forms of stock or equity invested by its owners and shareholders, government and private securities and loans that generate interest.
The requirements and methods of measuring capital has changed over the decades, with the most recent changes following the global financial crises. Banking regulators worldwide, grouped under the Basel Committee, tightened the requirements significantly to ensure banks would remain financially sound even during an economic or financial crises.
CET1 is the most basic form of liquid assets that a bank can hold, such cash and stock.
Another measure of reserve requirements is based on deposits at a bank. BOI has for many years set a 6 percent reserve requirement against demand deposits but the bank’s statement did not say whether this ratio was changed.
BOI said its decision to lower the capital requirement was in line with similar decisions in other countries and would be valid for six months and would be extended if necessary.
In response to the crises, central banks worldwide have been slashing both reserve requirements and countercyclical capital buffers.
The buffer was created after the global financial crises to ensure banks raise their capital during economic booms as an anti-cyclical measure so they can draw it down during a crises.
BOI said the today’s reduction of the capital requirement was based on the 2 percent capital buffer of each bank’s total risk assets, an excess demand that went beyond the Basel standards to protect the country’s banking system and the economy from unforeseen developments.
BOI also instructed boards at banks to “re-examine their dividend and share buyback policies,” in light of the material change in economic conditions, freeing up additional sources that can be used to provide credit and absorb losses, if necessary.
This is similar to a move by the Czech National Bank (CNB).
On March 16, when CNB cut its rate for the first of two times this month, it also cut the countercyclical capital buffer for its banks and said it expected banks to “refrain from a any dividend payouts or any other steps that might jeopardize individual bank’s resilience.”
BOI’s monetary policy committee is scheduled to meet on April 6. At its last meeting on Feb. 24, it maintained is key interest rate at 0.25 percent and confirmed its guidance that it expected to maintain the rate at this level for “a prolonged period.”
On March 15 the policy committee decided to carry out open market operations, offer repo transactions to financial institutions and purchase government bonds of various types and maturities “in necessary quantities” to ensure smooth functioning of the bond market.
On March 23 BOI then said it would purchase 50 billion shekel of government bonds in the secondary market to ease the volatility in bond yields from a lack of liquidity and lower the cost of longer-term credit for firms and households as a complement to its low interest rate policy.

www.CentralBankNews.info

By Orbex

EURAUD Struggles to Keep High Ground

The euro is facing strong headwinds as the block struggles to come up with a concerted rescue plan. Calls for joint bonds to finance coronavirus-related policies have met resistance from Berlin, which deems it too early to be effective.

This week’s German inflation, jobs, and manufacturing data may shed some light on the extent of the adversity. Negative readings could add pressure on the single currency, though there could be a silver lining in the form of an EU-wide package sooner than later.

The euro is making a pullback towards the 30-day moving average (1.7600), where trend-followers are likely to add positions.

GBPCAD Rallies Amid Improved Sentiment

The pound sterling extended its rally across the board after the Bank of England steadied the ship in its latest policy meeting. The central bank kept interest rates unchanged at 0.1% after two emergency cuts earlier this month.

This came as a sign that the situation might soon come under control. Markets also found relief in the government’s fiscal stimulus after Finance Minister Rishi Sunak threw a lifeline to hard-hit businesses. The pound now has to test the 61.8% (1.7500) Fibonacci retracement level from the March sell-off.

USDJPY Meets Tough Resistance

The US dollar came to a halt as the world’s largest economy became the epicenter of the global pandemic. Economic repercussions can already be felt across the country. Last week’s jobless claims surged to record 3.3 million and investors fret that the worst is yet to come.

In the meantime, central banks’ efforts to boost the supply of dollars have eased the liquidity squeeze. This means that the greenback could see more downside in the coming days. The pair stopped short of the key resistance of 112.00. The 50% (106.50) Fibonacci retracement level is the immediate support in sight.

NZDUSD recovers as markets stabilize

The New Zealand dollar rallies as investor appetite for ‘risk-on’ assets makes a comeback. Unswerving commitment from major central banks has helped lift liquidity and keep sentiment afloat.

With China gradually going back to work, there is some kind of consolation across developed markets. Nevertheless, grim economic news still lags behind and policies will need time to have effects on the real economy.

This makes one wonder how sustainable the latest rally can be. The kiwi could face increasing selling pressure and the bearish trend line (0.6200) is the major level to cap its advance.

By Orbex

By Han Tan, Market Analyst, ForexTime

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

By IFCMarkets

US stock market ended sharply lower on Friday despite approval by the House of Representatives of a second bailout package exceeding $2 trillion. The S&P 500 fell 3.4% to 2541.47, erasing most of previous week’s 15% loss as it booked a 10.3% weekly gain. Dow Jones industrial dropped 4.1% to 21636.78. The Nasdaq ended 3.8% lower at 7502.38. The dollar weakening slowed as consumer spending increased an expected 0.2% in February. The live dollar index data show the ICE US Dollar index, a measure of the dollar’s strength against a basket of six rival currencies, lost 1.1% to 98.29 but is higher currently. President Trump on Sunday extended the voluntary national social-distancing guidelines through April 30. Futures point to lower market openings today.

European stocks pulled back on Friday. EUR/USD reversed its climbing while GBP/USD added to its gains on Friday with both pairs lower currently. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index lost 3.2% led by autos and travel/leisure shares. The DAX 30 slid 3.7% to 9632.52 Friday. France’s CAC 40 dropped 4.2% and UK’s FTSE 100 tumbled 5.5% to 5510.33.

Asian stock indices are mostly lower today. Nikkei lost 1.6% to 19084.97 despite resumed yen slideing against the dollar. China’s markets are falling: the Shanghai Composite Index is down 0.9% while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is 1.5% lower. Australia’s All Ordinaries Index however jumped 7% as Australian dollar resumed its sliding against the greenback, and the government announced an additional A$1.1 billion ($680 million) will be spent on health and law services (besides earlier measures which equaled to about 10% of Australia’s annual gross domestic product) and decreed a moratorium on evictions of people from their rentals in the next six months.

Brent futures prices accelerated their plunge today following a 7.6% drop last week. Prices fell on Friday despite Baker Hughes report the number of active US rigs drilling for oil dropped by 40 to 624 last week. Brent for May settlement lost 5.4% to $24.93 a barrel Friday.

Gold prices are inching higher today. Prices rose on Friday as dollar weakening continued. Gold for April delivery gained 1.6% to $1625 on Friday.

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets

Note:
This overview has an informative and tutorial character and is published for free. All the data, included in the overview, are received from public sources, recognized as more or less reliable. Moreover, there is no guarantee that the indicated information is full and precise. Overviews are not updated. The whole information in each overview, including opinion, indicators, charts and anything else, is provided only for familiarization purposes and is not financial advice or а recommendation. The whole text and its any part, as well as the charts cannot be considered as an offer to make a deal with any asset. IFC Markets and its employees under any circumstances are not liable for any action taken by someone else during or after reading the overview.