InvestMacro

By TheTechnicalTraders – We have been writing about the strong potential for a deeper market rotation in the US and global markets for well over 60+ days.  In fact, our researchers predicted an August 2019 breakdown date based on Super-Cycle patterns that, eventually, pushed into 2020 as the US/China trade negotiations and other global news kept global markets in a low volatility bullish trend throughout the end of 2019.

We’ve highlighted some of our research posts over the past 30+ days to help illustrate the technical and price patterns that our research team has identified and shared.

December 20, 2019: WHO SAID TRADERS AND INVESTOR ARE EMOTIONAL RIGHT NOW?

December 16, 2019: CURRENT EQUITIES RALLY SIMILARITIES TO 1999

December 2, 2019: NEW PREDICTED TRENDS FOR SPX, GOLD, OIL NAT GAS

Technical Analysis is based on the premise that price reflects all news and expectations the instant that news or data is known.  A common term in Technical Analysis is “Bias”.  This is when the price trend is substantially more Bullish or Bearish by nature or expectation.  Bias occurs when investing conditions mostly eliminate risk (for the Bullish side) and opportunity (for the Bearish side).  When traders feel they can enter trades without any real risks (trading Long) or when they feel there is no opportunity for the markets to rally (trading Short), then a BIAS exists in the markets.

When the global markets rotate and volatility extends to much higher levels, the markets change from a “Biased Trend” to what Technical Analysts call “True Price Exploration”.  When this happens, price begins to operate under the price principles of Gann, Fibonacci and Elliot Wave theories where price attempts to rotate to new lows or highs in an attempt to “seek out” clear support and resistance levels before establishing a new longer-term “Biased trend”.

We believe the global markets are about to enter a very volatile period of sector rotation.  Certain sectors may see a much deeper price exploration than others.  For example, consumer product manufacturers focused on US and European markets may see very limited risks compared to the Industrial Supply sector where a global economic slowdown could really hurt their future expectations.

These two Market Sector Maps (source www.Finviz.com) highlight the change in the direction and scope of these changes over the past week and the past 30 days.

This first Sector Map is a 1 Week Sector Map

This second Sector Map is a 1 Month Sector Map

Pay very close attention to the sectors that were moderately or strongly weak in the 1-month chart and continue to weaken in the 1-week chart (Financial, Property, Telecommunications, Telecom Services, Healthcare, Biotech, Basic Materials, Industrial Goods, Lodging, Resorts, Travel, Hospitality, Food, Packaging, Textile.  The list is rather impressive and it suggests this Coronavirus has somewhat panicked the markets and consumers.  Yes, many of these consumers will continue to go out for food, entertainment, and other essentials – but what if 15% to 25% of them cut back on these activities and decide to stay home more often and watch movies or play games?

I remember in 1990 when Desert Storm started.  Just before this war started, the US economy was clicking right along.  I remember that within 10 days of the war starting, things started to change on the roadways and markets.  I also noticed a change in consumer spending with a friend’s computer gaming distribution company.  All of a sudden, consumers slowed their external purchasing activities and focused more on protectionist activities.  We believe this same type of event is going to quickly unfold within the US and other nations as this Corona Virus extends over the next 30+ days.

This is why I believe the volatility of price and market sector rotation will continue for at least 60+ days as the globe attempts to contain and eliminate the risks associated with this virus.  We understand the risks in the US and Canada are very small at the moment, but that has not stopped shoppers from emptying the shelves at the local hardware and pharmacy stores for “surgical masks” and supplies.  Trust us, people are already well into the protectionist-mode and are preparing for what may happen over the next 30+ days.

This creates an opportunity for technical investors and traders.  This potential for deeper price rotations and extended opportunities resulting from an end of bias volatile price exploration allows us to target very quick and exciting trades.

In part II of this research post, we’ll highlight three specific sectors we believe are poised for great trade setups as a result of the volatility and rotation in the global markets.  Join us in our quest to create incredible profits from these bigger trends – visit TheTechnicalTraders.com today.

Chris Vermeulen

Article By RoboForex.com

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is trading at 0.6759; the instrument is moving inside Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a sideways tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 0.6785 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.6595. Another signal to confirm further descending movement is the price’s rebounding from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the scenario that implies further decline may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.6815. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.6895. After breaking the cloud’s downside border and fixing below 0.6695, the price may resume moving downwards.

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

NZDUSD is trading at 0.6472; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 0.6495 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.6335. Another signal to confirm further descending movement is the price’s rebounding from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the scenario that implies further decline may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.6565. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.6655.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

USDCAD is trading at 1.3281; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 1.3210 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1.3425. Another signal to confirm further ascending movement is the price’s rebounding from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the scenario that implies further growth may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1.3145. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1.3075.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

By George Prior

Global financial markets are shrugging off uncertainty regarding the serious and ongoing international issue of the coronavirus outbreak – but beware of a bubble, warns the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organizations.

The warning from the chief executive and founder of deVere Group, Nigel Green, comes as U.S. stocks closed on Wednesday at record highs, and as the FTSE 100 and European stocks staged a comeback after taking their cues from Asian markets.

The markets’ reaction is in response to claims by China that they are progressing towards a coronavirus vaccine and to the plans by the country’s central bank to support the vulnerable economy by pumping in liquidity.

Mr Green says: “A serious and ongoing issue, such as coronavirus, and the major uncertainty it causes, would typically send global financial markets in to a tailspin.

“Whilst the coronavirus remains the number one threat to financial markets currently, they seem to be buoyed on Chinese state media reports of a breakthrough in attempts to find a cure to the current strain.

“However, these claims have been largely dismissed by the World Health Organization, confirmed cases and the death toll are rising, and countries across the world are ramping up precautions and preparations for coronavirus.”

He continues: “With this in mind, the question is posed: Is this a simple knee-jerk reaction from the market on some positive news? Or is there a classic bubble situation developing in some financial markets?

“It would seem investors are showing signs of displacement- when they become enamored with a new invention, technology or, in this case, a cure – which can lead to a boom and euphoria, when asset prices skyrocket. These are all stages of a classic bubble situation.”

Mr Green adds: “Investors should monitor the situation carefully.  The true economic fallout of the coronavirus outbreak will not be known for some time.

“However, we do know that it is going to have a serious, negative and far-reaching impact on China’s economy, which is already severely burdened by the prolonged trade dispute with the U.S.

“Of course, this multifaceted, downside trajectory of the world’s second-largest economy can be expected to have adverse knock-on effects for the fragile and largely interdependent global economy. Indeed, it could stall it.”

The deVere CEO concludes: “Knee-jerk reaction or growing bubble? Time will tell.

“But despite the alleged progress on coronavirus and despite the stimulus announced by China’s central bank, China’s already fragile economy, and the flimsy phase-one U.S.-trade deal could create the perfect storm to trigger a significant economic global slowdown.

“This would suggest that investors should now take steps to mitigate risks to their wealth.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement

Article By RoboForex.com

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the ascending tendency continues. By now, XAUUSD has completed several reversal patterns, such as Hammer, near the channel’s downside border. At the moment, the pair is reversing. The upside target may be at 1585.00. However, one shouldn’t ignore another scenario, according to which the instrument may resume falling towards 1540.00.

NZDUSD, “New Zealand vs. US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the pair is still moving near the support level, where it has formed several reversal patterns, including Hammer. At the moment, NZDUSD is expected to reverse; the closest upside target may be at 0.6530. At the same time, one shouldn’t exclude an opposite scenario, according to which the instrument may fall to reach 0.6425 and continue forming the descending channel.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.10421
• Open: 1.09985
• % chg. over the last day: -0.39
• Day’s range: 1.09942 – 1.10015
• 52 wk range: 1.0879 – 1.1572

Greenbeck continued its growth against its main competitors. Yesterday the fall of EUR/USD quotes exceeded 45 points. The trading instrument reached key lows. The American currency was supported by the positive economic releases. According to ADP report, in January the number of employed in the non-agricultural sector of the country grew by 291K versus market expectations at 156K. ISM Non-Farm Supply Managers Index accelerated from 54.9 to 55.5. Currently, EUR/USD quotes are consolidated in the range 1.09900-1.10100. Positions should be opened from key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 06.02.2020:

• – Initial Jobless Claims (US) – 15:30 (GMT+2:00);

Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price has fixed below 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, but above the signal line, which gives a weak sell signal for EUR/USD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which indicates a bullish mood.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.09900, 1.09500
• Resistance levels: 1.10100, 1.10300, 1.10500

If the price fixes below 1.09900, further decline of EUR/USD quotes is expected to 1.09600-1.09400.

Alternatively, the quotes could grow to 1.10300-1.10500.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.30316
• Open: 1.29994
• % chg. over the last day: -0.18
• Day’s range: 1.29717 – 1.30014
• 52 wk range: 1.1959 – 1.3516

The technical picture on the GBP/USD currency pair is ambiguous. Sterling is being traded in a flat. There is no defined trend. At the moment the following key support and resistance levels can be identified: 1.29550 and 1.30100, respectively. Demand for the US dollar remains at a high level. GBP/USD quotes can move further down. We recommend opening positions from key levels.

Today the publication of important economic releases from the UK is not planned.

The price is fixed below 50 MA and 100 MA, which signals the strength of the sellers.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, which indicates bearish sentiments.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which gives a signal to buy GBP/USD.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.29550, 1.29000
• Resistance levels: 1.30100, 1.30450, 1.30700

If the price fixes below 1.29550, expect quotes to fall toward 1.29000.

Alternativel, the quotes could rise toward 1.30500-1.30800.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.32765
• Open: 1.32821
• % chg. over the last day: +0.09
• Day’s range: 1.32800 – 1.32886
• 52 wk range: 1.2949 – 1.3566

USD/CAD quotes continue to consolidate after prolonged growth. There is no defined trend. The CAD is testing local support and resistance levels at 1.32650 and 1.33000, respectively. Technical correction is not ruled out in the nearest future. We recommend you to pay attention to the black gold price dynamics. Positions should be opened from key levels.

The news background on Canadian economy is calm.

Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price has crossed 50 MA.

MACD histogram is near the 0 mark.

The Stochastic Oscillator is located in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which indicates a bearish mood.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.32650, 1.32450, 1.32200
• Resistance levels: 1.33000, 1.33400

If the price fixes above 1.33000, further growth of USD/CAD quotes is expected to reach 1.33300-1.33500.

Alternatively, the quotes could descend to 1.32300-1.32100. .

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 109.515
• Open: 109.817
• % chg. over the last day: +0.27
• Day’s range: 109.697 – 109.981
• 52 wk range: 104.45 – 113.53

The USD/JPY currency pair continues to show a stable upward trend. The trading instrument reached the key extremums. At the moment, the safe haven currency is consolidating. Local support and resistance levels are acting 109.700 and 110.000, respectively. We do not rule out further growth of USD/JPY quotes. We recommend you to pay attention to the dynamics of the US government securities yield. Positions should be opened from key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 06.02.2020 is calm.

The indicators signal the strength of buyers: the price has fixed above 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, but below the signal line, which gives a weak signal to buy USD/JPY.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which indicates a bearish sentiment.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 109.700, 109.550, 109.300
• Resistance levels: 110.00, 110.250

If the price fixes above 110.000, expect the quotes to rise toward 110.250-110.400.

Alternatively, the quotes could descend toward 109.500-109.300.

by JustForex

by JustForex

The US dollar continues to grow against a basket of major currencies. Yesterday, the dollar index (#DX) closed in the green zone (+0.33%). Suddenly, China unexpectedly announced that it would halve duties on certain types of US imports. Investors hope that the global economy will be able to avoid the serious shock of an outbreak of coronavirus. According to data from China, the fee reduction will take effect on February 14th. The country is counting on cooperation with the United States in order to level all tariff increases in the future. Positive economic releases supported US currency. According to ADP, the number of people employed in the nonfarm sector of the country grew by 291K in January compared with market expectations of 156K. ISM non-manufacturing PMI accelerated from 54.9 to 55.5.

Yesterday, the US Senate acquitted President Donald Trump on both counts of impeachment. Now Trump can fully concentrate on the election race. Democrats, in turn, are not happy with the Senate decision. They called the Senate hearing fraud and cover-up.

According to recent data, the death toll from the virus has grown to 563 people, and the total number of infected has exceeded 28,000. The spread of the virus led to the isolation of entire Chinese cities, the closure of factories and interruptions in air traffic. US and Chinese doctors have set a goal to get a vaccine for testing in humans over the next few months, but many believe that this won’t happen so soon.

The “black gold” prices continue to rise. Currently, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing the $51.35 mark per barrel.

Market Indicators

Yesterday, there was the bullish sentiment in the US stock market: #SPY (+1.15%), #DIA (+1.67%), #QQQ (+0.33%).

The 10-year US government bonds yield rose again. At the moment, the indicator is at the level of 1.65-1.66%.

• – Initial jobless claims in the US at 15:30 (GMT+2:00).

by JustForex

By Alpari.com

By Alpari.com

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After forming another consolidation range above 1.1045, EURUSD has broken it to the downside. Possibly, the pair may form a new descending structure towards 1.1030 and then start another growth to reach 1.1065.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

After breaking 1.2980 to the downside and reaching 1.2940, GBPUSD has formed a new ascending impulse towards 1.3045; right now, it is consolidating above 1.3000. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may resume moving downwards to reach 1.2960; if to the upside – start a new growth towards 1.3090.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

After forming another consolidation range around 0.9666, USDCHF has broken it upwards. Today, the pair may continue growing to reach 0.9705 and then resume trading inside the downtrend with the target at 0.9666.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

After reaching 108.90 and forming one more consolidation range, USDJPY has broken it upwards. Possibly, today the pair may grow to reach 109.57. After that, the instrument may form a new descending structure to test 108.90 from above.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is consolidating above 0.6730. Today, the pair may grow to reach 0.6755 and resume trading downwards with the target at 0.6730. After that, the instrument may start a new growth towards 0.6780.

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB is moving downwards. Possibly, today the pair may reach 62.80 and then form one more ascending structure towards 63.34. Later, the market may resume falling with the target at 62.60.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

USDCAD is consolidating above 1.3267. Possibly, the pair may expand the range up to 1.3309. After that, the instrument may start a new decline with the target at 1.3216.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is moving downwards. Today, the pair may consolidate around 1558.90. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may reach 1538.45 and then start another correction to reach 1558.95. After that, the instrument may form a new descending structure with the target at 1524.50.

BRENT

Brent is consolidating around 54.50. Possibly, the pair may expand the range down to 53.60 and then resume growing to return to 54.50. Later, the market may form a new descending impulse to update 53.20 and then start another growth with the first target at 56.75.

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

BTCUSD is consolidating around 9300.00; right now, it is falling to reach 9000.00 and may later grow to return to 9300.00, thus forming a new consolidation range. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may resume moving upwards to reach 10044.00; if to the downside – start a new correction towards 8500.00.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, GBPUSD is still forming expanding Triangle pattern, which means that the pair may continue falling to reach the low at 1.2904. If the price breaks this level, the instrument may continue its decline towards 50.0% and 61.8% fibo at 1.2856 and 1.2700 respectively.

The H1 chart shows a slight pullback after a quick decline. Judging by MACD dynamics, after completing the pullback the pair may resume moving downwards to reach 50.0% fibo (1.2855).

EURJPY, “Euro vs. Japanese Yen”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after falling and reaching 38.2%, EURJPY has started a new pullback to the upside. Possibly, the pair may break the resistance at 23.6% fibo (121.21) and then continue growing towards the high at 122.87 or even mid-term 61.8% fibo at 123.05. However, this scenario won’t be valid as long as the price hasn’t broken the resistance. In this case, the instrument is expected to continue its decline towards 50.0% and 61.8% fibo at 119.36 and 118.55 respectively.

The H1 chart shows a new pullback to the upside, which has already reached 38.2% fibo. The next targets may be 50.0% and 61.8% fibo at 121.32 and 121.68 respectively. The support is the low at 119.77. If the price breaks it, the mid-term decline will continue.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.