InvestMacro

By Alpari.com

By Alpari.com

In a direct response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the pound to euro exchange rate plummeted. It fell dramatically yesterday, with some fearing the euro could overtake sterling.

The fluctuations are driven by headlines as well as the decisions of governments and central banks. The volatility is not just found in the foreign exchange market, it is also found in markets across the world.

Boris Johnson’s announcements regarding travel restrictions has had a significant impact on all areas of the economy. How long it takes the Prime Minister and other world leaders to lift the ban on non-essential travel will directly influence FX markets. Yesterday, the US government agreed on a $2 trillion stimulus package that is hoped to reduce some of the market volatility and see the stock markets climb back up.

Greg Baggio, Head of Performance at WeSwap commented on how COVID-19 has affected the FX market:

“Across all markets, we’ve seen extreme volatility levels and the FX market is no different. Currency movements are not only driven by headlines on COVID-19’s progress, but also by the various governments and central banks’ decisions on interest rates and cash injections to support their economies. The ultimate question the markets are asking is ‘how strong is a country going to come out of the crisis and will they be able to attract investment again?

In addition, some currencies like the US dollar are considered a safe-haven when everything else goes awry and the dollar’s strength has been detrimental to the pound in the last 2 weeks, dropping from highs of 1.32 down to around 1.15. Although we’ve finally seen some relief as the stock markets bounced back yesterday following the US Government’s agreement of a $2 trillion stimulus package.”

By Luke Jefferies

By Alpari.com

By Alpari.com

by JustForex

The US dollar fell again relative to a basket of major currencies. The dollar index (#DX) closed in the negative zone (-1.22%). In addition to coronavirus, the US dollar is under pressure due to weak economic data. So, yesterday a report on core durable goods orders was published, according to which the number of orders decreased by 0.6% in February, while investors expected a decrease by 0.4%. Today, experts expect the release of a report on the initial jobless claims, and forecast that the number of unemployed has increased by more than 3.5 times due to quarantine in the United States. The US Senate supported the $2 trillion bill, which aims to mitigate the economic consequences of the coronavirus pandemic.

The British pound is still under pressure due to concerns that the UK is not ready to cope with the coronavirus spread. The day before London reported that the total number of coronavirus cases in the country rose to 9,529 on Wednesday, while a day earlier it was 8,077. Today, investors have taken a wait-and-see attitude before the Bank of England interest rate decision.

The “black gold” prices are consolidating. At the moment, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing the $23.85 mark per barrel. At 16:30 (GMT+2:00), US crude oil inventories will be published.

Market indicators

Yesterday, there was a variety of trends in the US stock market: #SPY (+1.50%), #DIA (+2.62%), #QQQ (-0.74%).

The 10-year US government bonds yield fell again. At the moment, the indicator is at the level of 0.81-0.82%.

• – Retail sales in the UK at 09:00 (GMT+2:00);
• – Bank of England interest rate decision at 14:00 (GMT+2:00);
• – US GDP data at 14:30 (GMT+2:00);
• – Initial jobless claims in the US at 14:30 (GMT+2:00).

by JustForex

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs. US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the pair continues the correction within the descending tendency; by now, EURUSD has formed several reversal candlestick patterns, such as Hammer, not far from the support level. At the moment, EURUSD is reversing. We may assume that later the price may correct to reach 1.1050. However, one shouldn’t exclude a possibility that the price may continue falling towards 1.0550 without testing 1.1050.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen”

As we can see in the H4 chart, USDJPY is still recovering after the fall. Right now, the pair continues testing the resistance level, where it has formed several reversal patterns, such as Doji, Hanging Man, and Long-Legged Doji. Possibly, the price may reverse and reach 108.00. The current situation implies that after finishing the correction the price may grow towards the target at 113.60.

EURGBP, “Euro vs. Great Britain Pound”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after finishing the correction within the rising tendency and then testing the support level, EURGBP has formed an Engulfing reversal pattern there. At the moment, the pair is reversing. We may assume that later the market may start a new growth towards 0.9490 and continue the ascending tendency. However, one shouldn’t exclude an opposite scenario, which implies that the instrument may continue falling with the target at 0.9055.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is trading at 1.0907; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 1.0865 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1.1065. Another signal to confirm further ascending movement is the price’s rebounding from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the scenario that implies further growth may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1.0750. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1.0685.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF is trading at 0.9745; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 0.9720 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1.0025. Another signal to confirm further ascending movement is the price’s rebounding from the downside border of a Wolfe Wave pattern. However, the scenario that implies further growth may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 0.9545. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 0.9465. After breaking the trendline and fixing above 0.9835, the price may resume moving upwards.

USDTRY, “US Dollar vs New Turkish Lira”

USDTRY is trading at 6.4593; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 6.3955 and then resume moving upwards to reach 6.6455. Another signal to confirm further ascending movement is the price’s rebounding from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the scenario that implies further growth may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 6.3000. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 6.2000.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.07851
• Open: 1.08831
• % chg. over the last day: +0.86
• Day’s range: 1.08701 – 1.09399
• 52 wk range: 1.0777 – 1.1494

The EUR/USD currency pair went up after a long consolidation. The trading tool has updated local highs. At the moment, EUR/USD quotes are consolidating in the range of 1.08800-1.09550. The technical pattern signals a further recovery of the EUR. The US Senate supported the $2 trillion bill, which aims to help the unemployed and industries affected by the epidemic of the COVID-19 virus. Today, investors will evaluate the data on the number of initial jobless claims in the United States. According to forecasts, the indicator grew by more than 3.5 times. We recommend opening positions from key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 26.03.2020:

• – GDP Report (US) – 14:30 (GMT+3:00);
• – Initial Jobless Claims (US) – 14:30 (GMT+3:00);

Indicators signal the power of buyers: the price has fixed above 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, indicating a bullish sentiment.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.08800, 1.08150, 1.07500
• Resistance levels: 1.09550, 1.10600

If the price consolidates above 1.09550, expect further correction to 1.10000-1.10500.

Alternatively, the quotes could descend toward 1.08200-1.07800.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.17432
• Open: 1.18744
• % chg. over the last day: +1.09
• Day’s range: 1.17755 – 1.19609
• 52 wk range: 1.1466 – 1.3516

An ambiguous technical picture has developed on the GBP/USD currency pair. The Pound is currently consolidating. The local support and resistance levels are 1.17800 and 1.19750, respectively. Investors took a wait and see attitude before the meeting of the Bank of England. We recommend you to pay attention to the comments and rhetoric of the representatives of the regulator. Open positions from the key levels.

UK National Statistics Service released weak UK retail sales data for February. At 14:00 (GMT + 2: 00) the Bank of England will announce its decision regarding the key interest rate.

Indicators signal the power of buyers: the price has fixed above 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, indicating a bullish sentiment.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.17800, 1.16500, 1.14500
• Resistance levels: 1.19750, 1.21350, 1.22800

If the price consolidates above 1.19750, GBP/USD is expected to rise to 1.21000-1.21500.

Alternatively, the quotes could descend toward 1.16500-1.16000.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.45076
• Open: 1.44658
• % chg. over the last day: -0.25
• Day’s range: 1.42955 – 1.44830
• 52 wk range: 1.2949 – 1.4668

The USD/CAD currency pair went down. The trading tool has updated local lows. CAD is currently testing a round level of 1.43000. 1.44500 is the nearest resistance. The technical picture signals a further correction of the USD/CAD quotes. We recommend you to pay attention to the dynamics of black gold prices. Open positions from key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 26.03.2020 is pretty calm.

Indicators signal the power of sellers: the price has fixed below 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone and continues to decline, indicating a bearish mood.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone, the% K line crossed the% D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.43000, 1.41500, 1.40000
• Resistance levels: 1.44500, 1.45550, 1.46600

If the price consolidates below 1.43000, expect further correct toward 1.42000-1.41000.

Alternatively, the quotes could grow toward 1.45000-1.46000.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 111.222
• Open: 111.328
• % chg. over the last day: +0.05
• Day’s range: 110.752 – 111.568
• 52 wk range: 101.19 – 112.41

The USD/JPY currency pair is still in a flat. There is no defined trend. Participants in financial markets expect additional drivers. At the moment, the following local support and resistance levels can be distinguished: 110.200 and 111.600, respectively. In the near future, technical correction of the trading instrument is not ruled out. We recommend you to pay attention to the dynamics of yield on US government bonds. Open positions from key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 26.03.2020 is calm.

Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price is consolidating near 50 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, indicating a bullish sentiment.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the% K line crossed the% D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 110.200, 109.300, 108.500.
• Resistance levels: 111.600, 112.000

If the price consolidates below 110.200, expect a correction toward 109.300-108.500.

Alternatively, the quotes could grow toward 112.000-112.500.

by JustForex

By TheTechnicalTraders 

– In this last segment of our multi-part research article, we want to highlight our expectations of the Covid-19 virus event and how the next 6+ months of global market activity may play out.  We’ve covered some of the data points we believe are important and we’ve touched on the collateral damage that may be unknown at this time.  Today, we’ll try to put the bigger picture together for investors to help you understand what we believe may be the 12+ month outcome.

As the global central banks and US Fed attempt to come to the rescue, the reality is that monetary policy works better when consumers are able to actually go out and engage in spending and economic activity.  If the Covid-19 virus event contracts global consumer activity, as it has recently, for an extended period of time (4 to 6+ months), then we have a real issue with how QE efforts and consumer activity translate into any real recovery attempt.

The real risks to the global markets is an extended risk that the Covid-19 virus creates a contracting economic environment for many months/quarters and potentially fosters an environment where extensive collateral damage to corporations, consumer activity, credit/debt markets, and other massive financial risks boil over.

Before you continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals 
before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

News is already starting to hit that QE is not helping the deteriorating situation in the Mortgage banking business.  Remember, this is the same segment of the financial industry that started the 2007-08 credit crisis event.  News that mortgage lenders and bankers are already starting to experience margin-calls and have attempted to contract their exposure to the risks in the markets (a bit late) are concerning.  This is a pretty big collateral damage risk for the global markets.

Additionally, as we expected, applications for new mortgages have collapsed to their lowest level since 2009.  Until consumers feel confident in their ability to get out, engage in real economic growth and take on home loans they know are relatively secure in their ability to repay – there is going to be a continued market contraction.  The next phase of this contraction is a price reduction, forced selling/foreclosures and a glut of assets waiting for a bottom.

“Home-purchase applications dropped by 14.6% while

refinancing applications plummeted 33.8%… “

I think the most important aspect of this global virus event is to remember that we will survive it (in some form) and we will live to rebuild after this event completes.  Yet, the reality is that we were not prepared for this event to happen and we don’t know the total scope of this Covid-19 virus event.  We simply don’t know how long it will take to remove the threat of the virus and for societies to reengage in normal economic activity – and that is the key to starting a real recovery.

Hong Kong has recently reported a “third wave” of Covid-19 infections.  I believe we should attempt to learn from places like Hong Kong, where news is moderately accurate and reported via social media and other resources.  If we want to learn what to expect in the US and how the process of containing this virus may play out, we need to start learning from other nations that are ahead of us in the curve.

It appears that any attempt to resume somewhat normal economic activities while the virus is still active spouts a new wave of infections.  This would suggest that the only way to attempt to reengage in any somewhat normal economic activity would be when a vaccine or true medical cure is in place to allow nations to attempt to eradicate the virus as these waves continue. (Source: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/third-wave-hong-kong-thought-it-had-a-handle-on-coronavirus-it-doesnt-2020-03-23 )

The price collapse in 2008-09 represented a -56% decline from top to bottom.  Currently, the S&P has fallen by just over 35%.  We don’t believe the bottom in the US stock market has setup just yet and we do believe there is a greater downside price risk ahead.  We don’t believe the housing market will be able to sustain any of the current price levels for much longer.  We believe the collateral damage of this event is just starting to be known and we believe a greater economic contraction is unfolding not only in the US but throughout the globe.

Skilled traders need to understand the total scope of this event.  We’ve attempted to highlight this risk in this article and in our “Crunching Numbers” research article (PART III).  An economic contraction, like the Covid-19 virus event, could contract global GDP by as much as 8 to 15% over an extended 16 to 36+ month span of time.  Are we concerned about the Real Estate market?  You Bet!  Are we concerned about global markets?  You Bet!  Are we prepared for this as traders? You Bet!  Are the central banks global nations prepared for this? We certainly hope so.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for short-term swing traders.

Visit my ETF Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen

TheTechnicalTraders.com

March, 25^th – Belize City, Belize – RoboForex, an international forex broker, improves the bonus program conditions for its clients and partners. The improvements affected most of the Company’s bonus programs offered to clients, such as “Classic Bonus”, “Profit Share Bonus”, “Cashback”, and “VIP client”. In addition to that, the Company has changed the conditions of affiliate commission payouts.

The maximum amount of the Classic bonus has been increased up to 120% of the deposited sum, while in the case of the Profit Share bonus this number is 60% now. Apart from this, both programs no longer apply any restrictions on the minimum deposited amount and their trading volume requirements for withdrawing the bonus have been reduced twice.

Conditions for receiving Cashback on Prime accounts have also changed. From now on, the Cashback amount is multi-level, 5%, 7%, and 10%, and depends on the client’s trading volume.

It’s easier now to become a VIP client. Requirements for the minimum amount of funds on the client’s accounts to get access to the VIP program have been decreased to 3,000 USD.

Also, partners of RoboForex may find improvements in the Company’s Loyalty interesting. The minimum amount of affiliate commission is now 10% of the client’s trading volume and paid after the volume reaches 500 USD.

Denis Golomedov, Chief Marketing Officer at RoboForex, is commenting on these innovations: “We’ve introduced several improvements in payment and settlement procedures within frameworks of our bonus and loyalty programs. These changes will allow our clients and partners to increase their potential earnings. By doing this, we want to support them in the time of global economic instability which we’re experiencing these days. As I said on numerous occasions before, we consistently improve our trading conditions, enhance the Company’s products and services in order to create a more comfortable environment for our clients, because our top priority is providing them with quality services and satisfying their interests.”

About RoboForex

RoboForex is a company, which delivers brokerage services on a world-wide basis. The company provides traders, who work on financial markets, with access to its proprietary trading platforms. RoboForex Ltd has the brokerage license IFSC/60/271/TS. More detailed information about the Company’s products and activities can be found on the official website at www.roboforex.com

By George Prior

Coronavirus – not Brexit, nor the 2008 financial crash – is likely to deliver the biggest hammer blow to the British pound, warns the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory and services organizations.

The stark warning from deVere Group’s chief executive and founder, Nigel Green, came as sterling fell to its lowest level on record against the currencies of Britain’s major trading partners on Tuesday.

The exchange rate, measured against a basket of currencies corresponding to the UK’s trade flows, fell to a low of 72.9, according to the Bank of England. It was slightly up on Wednesday to 74.4.

Mr Green notes: “These are unprecedented times. The pound is weaker now than at any point during the Brexit process, the 2008 financial crash, or 1992’s Black Wednesday when speculators forced the government’s hand in pulling the pound from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism.”

This is happening for three main reasons, says the deVere CEO.

“First, the coronavirus pandemic has triggered a flight-to-safety.  As is typical in times of economic turbulence, the U.S. dollar attracts more buyers, in turn pulling down the price of sterling.

“Second, investors are seeking liquidity and the most liquid assets of all are U.S. Treasuries, which explains why dollars are always in demand.

“Third, before the pandemic, many investors had piled into sterling anticipating more gains following a decisive general election outcome.”

The beleaguered pound will impact in numerous ways.

“The significant drop in the value of the pound will contribute to reducing people’s purchasing power and a drop in UK living standards. Weaker sterling means imports are more expensive, with rising prices being passed on to consumers.

“The fall in the pound is good for exports some claim, but it must be remembered that around 50 per cent of UK exports rely on imported components. These will become more expensive as the pound falls in value.

“A low pound is, of course, bad news for British expats who receive income or pensions in sterling.

“In addition, the UK’s financial services sector – which contributes 6 per cent of GDP – will suffer from another knock to the pound. It will be hit because it is built on foreign investment that puts its faith in a strong pound.”

Nigel Green concludes: “Coronavirus – not Brexit, nor the 2008 financial crash – is likely to deliver the biggest hammer blow to the British pound as the world moves into unchartered and uncertain waters.

“As such, we can expect to see an increase in domestic and international investors in UK assets considering the international options available to them in order to build and safeguard their wealth.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.