InvestMacro

By CountingPips.com

Here is a short summary and this week’s links (below) to the latest Commitment of Traders changes.

• This week’s COT results showed that Speculators cut back on bullish bets of the US dollar last week for the second straight week and under the $15 billion dollar level for first time in five weeks.

• WTI Crude speculators raised bullish bets for the first time since their record high bullish position on February 21st.

• The 10-year note speculators reduced their bearish bets for the fifth straight week and to the lowest bearish level since November.

• Gold speculators increased their bullish bets higher for a 3rd week while Silver bets jumped for a second week to the largest bullish position in 30 years.

• Copper, meanwhile, saw speculative bets lower for the 8th out of the last 9 weeks.

• S&P500 speculators cut back on their bullish bets in S&P500 futures following seven straight weeks of gains.

Currency Speculators reduced US Dollar bullish positions for 2nd week

US Dollar net speculator positions leveled at $14.67 billion last week

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators cut back on their bullish bets for the US dollar last week… See full article

WTI Crude Oil Speculators raised bullish net positions for 1st time in 6 weeks

The non-commercial contracts of WTI crude futures rose to a net position of 408,382 contracts, according to data from last week. This was a boost of 10,302 contracts from the previous week’s total… See full article

Gold Speculators boosted bullish net positions higher for 3rd week

The large speculator contracts of gold futures advanced to a total net position of 155,436 contracts. This was a weekly gain of 17,616 contracts from the previous week… See full article

10 Year Treasury Note Speculators reduced bearish net positions for 5th week

The large speculator contracts of 10-year treasury note futures totaled a net position of -55,766 contracts. This was a weekly change of 13,653 contracts from the previous week… See full article

Large S&P500 Speculators pared bullish net positions for 1st time in 8 weeks

The large speculator contracts of S&P 500 futures fell to a total net position of 7,382 contracts. This was a decline of -4,988 contracts from the reported data of the previous week… See full article

Silver Speculators sharply raised net positions for 2nd week

The non-commercial contracts of silver futures totaled a net position of 101,382 contracts, according to data from last week. This was a weekly rise of 10,694 contracts from the previous totals… See full article

Copper Speculators trim bullish net positions for 8th out of last 9 weeks

The large speculator contracts of copper futures totaled a net position of 26,868 contracts, a weekly drop of -2,997 contracts from the data of the previous week… See full article

Article by CountingPips.com

The Commitment of Traders report data is published in raw form every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows the futures positions of market participants as of the previous Tuesday (data is reported 3 days behind).

To learn more about this data please visit the CFTC website at http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm

By CountingPips.com – Get our weekly COT Reports by Email

US Dollar net speculator positions leveled at $14.67 billion last week

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators cut back on their bullish bets for the US dollar last week.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $14.67 billion as of Tuesday April 4th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly decline of $-0.60 billion from the $15.27 billion total long position that was registered the previous week, according to the Reuters calculation (totals of the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc).

The second straight weekly decline in the aggregate dollar speculative positions pushed overall bullish bets to the lowest level since February 28th and under the $15 billion threshold for the first time in five weeks.

Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:

The major currencies that improved against the US dollar last week were the British pound sterling (4,402 weekly change in contracts), Japanese yen (7,381 contracts) and the Swiss franc (2,567 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined last week versus the dollar were the euro (-3,482 weekly change in contracts),  Canadian dollar (-2,008 contracts), Australian dollar (-3,545 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-2,095 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-4,951 contracts).

Table of Weekly Commercial Traders and Speculators Levels & Changes:

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

 

Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

British Pound Sterling:

Japanese Yen:

Swiss Franc:

Canadian Dollar:

Australian Dollar:

New Zealand Dollar:

Mexican Peso:

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

Article by CountingPips.com

By CountingPips.com – Get our weekly COT Reports by Email

10 Year Treasury Note Non-Commercial Positions:

Large speculators decreased their bearish net positions in the 10-year treasury note futures markets last week for the fifth consecutive week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-year treasury note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -55,766 contracts in the data reported through April 4th. This was a weekly change of 13,653 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -69,419 net contracts.

Speculators have reduced their net short position by over 350,000 contracts after registering a record high bearish position on February 28th and now have the smallest bearish position since November 1st.

10 Year Treasury Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, categorized by the CFTC as hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 242,840 contracts last week. This is a weekly decline of -20,826 contracts from the total net of 263,666 contracts reported the previous week.

IEF 7-10 Year Bond ETF:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) closed at approximately $105.80 which was a rise of $0.42 from the previous close of $105.38, according to ETF market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the previous Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article by CountingPips.com

By CountingPips.com – Get our weekly COT Reports by Email

WTI Crude Oil Non-Commercial Positions:

Large speculators and traders increased their net positions in the WTI crude oil futures markets last week following five straight weeks of declines, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial contracts of WTI crude futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 408,382 contracts in the data reported through April 4th. This was a weekly gain of 10,302 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 398,080 net contracts.

The latest data was the first time speculators have increased their weekly net positions since the record high long position registered on February 21st when speculators were net long by +556,607 contracts.

WTI Crude Oil Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, categorized by the CFTC as hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -405,772 contracts last week. This is a weekly change of 4,317 contracts from the total net of -410,089 contracts reported the previous week.

USO Crude Oil ETF:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the USO Crude Oil ETF, which tracks the price of WTI crude oil, closed at approximately $10.71 which was a rise of $0.56 from the previous close of $10.15, according to ETF market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the previous Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article by CountingPips.com

By CountingPips.com – Get our weekly COT Reports by Email

Gold Non-Commercial Positions:

Large speculators and traders sharply increased their net positions in the gold futures markets last week for a third consecutive week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Comex gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 155,436 contracts in the data reported through April 4th. This was a weekly gain of 17,616 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 137,820 net contracts.

Last week’s gain was the third straight week with a rise of over +10,000 bullish bets and has brought the overall net bullish level to its highest standing since November 22nd when net positions equaled +167,085 contracts.

Gold Commercial Positions:

Meanwhile, the commercial traders position, categorized by the CFTC as hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -171,016 contracts last week. This is a weekly change of -18,902 contracts from the total net of -152,114 contracts reported the previous week.

Gold ETF:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the GLD ETF, which tracks the price of gold, closed at approximately $119.62 which was a rise of $0.58 from the previous close of $119.04, according to ETF financial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the previous Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article by CountingPips.com

By CountingPips.com – Get our weekly COT Reports by Email

Silver Non-Commercial Positions:

Large speculators sharply increased their net positions in the silver futures markets last week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Comex silver futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 101,382 contracts in the data reported through April 4th. This was a weekly gain of 10,694 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 90,688 net contracts.

Last week was the second straight week of gains over +10,000 net contracts and has brought the overall net bullish position to its highest level in over 30 years, according to our data going back to 1986.

Silver Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, categorized by the CFTC as hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -112,346 contracts last week. This is a weekly change of -10,579 contracts from the total net of -101,767 contracts reported the previous week.

Silver ETF:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the SLV ishares ETF, which tracks the price of silver, closed at approximately $17.33 which was a rise of $0.15 from the previous close of $17.18, according to ETF financial market data.

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article by CountingPips.com

By CountingPips.com – Get our weekly COT Reports by Email

Copper Non-Commercial Positions:

Large speculators and traders cut back on their bullish net positions in the copper futures markets last week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of copper futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 26,868 contracts in the data reported through April 4th. This was a weekly decline of -2,997 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,865 net contracts.

Copper speculators had strongly added (+8,195 net contracts) positions two weeks ago following seven straight weeks of declines before the decline in the latest weekly data. Net positions of speculators have now fallen eight out of the last nine weeks.

Copper Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, categorized by the CFTC as hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -29,883 contracts last week. This is a weekly change of -240 contracts from the total net of -29,643 contracts reported the previous week.

Copper ETN:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the JJC iPath Bloomber Copper ETN, which tracks the price of copper, closed at approximately $29.94 which was a small dip of $-0.60 from the previous close of $30.54, according to financial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the previous Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article by CountingPips.com

By CountingPips.com – Get our weekly COT Reports by Email

S&P500 Non-Commercial Positions:

Large speculators and traders reduced their bullish net positions in the S&P500 stock futures markets last week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of S&P500 futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 7,382 contracts in the data reported through April 4th. This was a weekly decline of -4,988 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,370 net contracts.

Large speculative positions had been on a seven week roll that had pushed bullish net positions to the highest level since mid-December before last week’s shortfall.  Last week’s decline (-4,988 contracts) marks the largest one week fall since December 20th when net positions dropped by -9,065 contracts.

S&P500 Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, categorized by the CFTC as hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -18,859 contracts last week. This is a weekly change of 5,222 contracts from the total net of -24,081 contracts reported the previous week.

S&P500 Stock Market Index:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the S&P500 index closed at approximately 2360.15 which was a gain of 1.58 from the previous close of 2358.57, according to market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the previous Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article by CountingPips.com

You can learn a LOT about stocks from these 2 factors

By Elliott Wave International

In this new interview, Brian Whitmer, the editor of our European Financial Forecast and contributor to the European section of Global Market Perspective, highlights the precarious position of European stock markets.

By Jason Hamlin, GoldStockBull.com

U.S. Navy warships fired 50+ Tomahawk missiles at a Syrian military base a few hours ago. It was the first direct American assault on the Syrian government and Donald Trump’s most dramatic military order since becoming president. This attack was in response to the chemical attack in Syria that killed over 70 people, including up to 30 children. The attack has been blamed on the Syrian regime, but little evidence has been supplied thus far.

The surprise strike marked a striking reversal for Trump, who warned as a candidate against the U.S. getting pulled into the Syrian civil war, now in its seventh year. Unfortunately, he was right then as a reality TV star/businessman and wrong now as President.

I always ask “cui bono?” during times like this and have little trust in the mainstream media. It really makes no sense for Assad to drop chemical weapons on his own people and draw the ire of the world, just as he was winning the war in his country and the U.S. was backing off their insistence on regime change. Of course, I don’t know for sure what happened, but something does not seem quite right about the narrative. Hopefully we get more details in the hours ahead and there is a clearer picture of what evidence compelled Trump to order the attack.

Was Trump fooled into believing that Assad would drop chemical weapons on his own people? He would be risking his power, life and legacy at a moment when he has everything to lose and nothing to gain from such an attack. This is the same old playbook they tried once before. It failed when alternative media revealed it was actually the Western-backed, anti-Assad rebels that used chemical weapons on innocents in Syria, not Assad. And here we are again, with the same line.

The bigger picture here is that the Russian and Iranian militaries are both operating alongside the Syrian military. If the U.S. deliberately or accidentally attacks the Russian military, things could escalate very quickly. A war between two nuclear superpowers does not benefit anyone. Let’s pray that the conflict remains contained to a few surgical strikes against Syria and not full-scale war with Russia.

Rand Paul who has been vocally against any strikes, opined on twitter:

I think it is worth considering that Trump knew Assad did not use chemical weapons, but wanted to impress Chinese President Xi Jinping, currently staying with Trump at his Mar a Lago resort. It also takes pressure off Trump’s various media scandals, real or fabricated, and unites the nation behind the President in a time of war. If he made sure to clear it with Russia and strike what has been described as a shell of a miliary base, with little to no causalities, it actually may benefit Trump. It should certainly quieten down the Democrats’ Russian narrative for a while. But we are going deep down the rabbit hole of possiblities.

At roughly $1.5 million per Tomahawk missile, Trump was sending a $100 million message to Assad via taxpayer money.  The mainstream media will have a hard time trying to figure out whether to cheer this act of war as usual, or criticize it since they hate Trump so much. What did it actually accomplish?

Gold and silver have spiked higher following the news, with gold up $14 (1%) and silver up 15 cents (0.8%) so far tonight.

S&P futures tanked on the news, erasing previous gains.

I think we are likely to see follow-through buying of gold as western markets open in the morning. Since this attack has the potential to escalate, I think the push higher in precious metals may just be getting started.  Money often flows into safe haven assets such as gold during times of political uncertainty. The Gold Stock Bull Portfolio is already positioned to profit from this move higher in gold, but we are likely to increase exposure tomorrow and pick up a few of the junior miners that we have been highlighting for subscribers. You can become a premium member by clicking here.

Article by By Jason Hamlin, GoldStockBull.com