InvestMacro

By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

S&P500 Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large speculators lowered their net positions in the S&P500 futures markets last week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Monday due to the Thanksgiving’s Day holiday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of S&P500 futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -2,330 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday November 21st. This was a weekly decrease of -2,172 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -158 net contracts.

Speculative bets now have fallen for three out of the last four weeks and into the most bearish position since September 12th.

S&P500 Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 9,347 contracts on the week. This was a weekly rise of 4,026 contracts from the total net of 5,321 contracts reported the previous week.

SPY ETF:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the SPY ETF, which tracks the price of S&P500 Index, closed at approximately $259.99 which was a rise of $2.26 from the previous close of $257.73, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Silver Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large metals speculators decreased their net positions in the Silver futures markets last week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Monday due to the Thanksgiving’s Day holiday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Silver futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 67,641 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday November 21st. This was a weekly decrease of -1,532 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,173 net contracts.

Speculative positions fell after two weeks of gains but bullish bets remain above the +60,000 contract level for a sixth straight week.

Silver Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -80,436 contracts on the week. This was a weekly boost of 12 contracts from the total net of -80,448 contracts reported the previous week.

SLV ETF:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the SLV ishares ETF, which tracks the price of silver, closed at approximately $16.01 which was a decline of $-0.07 from the previous close of $16.08, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Copper Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large metals speculators slightly increased their bullish net positions in the Copper futures markets last week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Monday due to the Thanksgiving’s Day holiday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Copper futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 40,613 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday November 21st. This was a weekly boost of 899 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,714 net contracts.

Speculative positions had fallen the previous three weeks to the lowest level in six weeks before last week’s turnaround.

Copper Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -45,913 contracts on the week. This was a weekly decline of -269 contracts from the total net of -45,644 contracts reported the previous week.

JJC ETF:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the JJC iPath Bloomber Copper ETN, which tracks the price of copper, closed at approximately $35.71 which was a boost of $0.88 from the previous close of $34.83, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

By Gabriel Ojimadu, Alpari

Trading opportunities on the currency pair: The mid-term target is still 141.06. The intermediate targets are 136 and 139. After a rebound from the 131.40 – 131.80 support zone, the euro is expected to rise against the yen to 134.50. This will not happen if the weekly candlestick closes below 129.50.

Background

The previous idea on this currency pair was published on the 6^th of November after Shinzo Abe’s convincing election victory in Japan. At press time, the price was trading around 132.61. The pair has been caught in a sideways trend for the last few weeks. Given that the central bank left their monetary policy unchanged at the last meeting, my mid-term forecast shows a breakout of the resistance at 134.50, followed by further growth to 141.06 (high from June 2015) in the 1-1 channel. The intermediate targets are 136 and 139.

Current situation

On Monday the 20^th of November, the euro dropped to 131.17. The euro lost ground against the yen after coalition talks in Germany collapsed. By Wednesday, market participants had stopped worrying about the future of the German government as they shifted their focus to US and German data.

You can find the weekly chart with a forecast in the previous review. In this review, I want to look at the EURJPY pair on the 4-hour timeframe. The euro rose significantly against all the majors on Friday, rising 0.8% against the yen to reach 133.24. This growth was catalysed by the US dollar’s decline, weak US data, reduced trading activity due to the US national holiday, and a decline in US bond yields.

The 131.40 – 131.80 range acted as a support. The euro rebounded from this zone and is currently trading around the 133.03 resistance. The coalition talks in Germany are now of secondary importance as in such a thin market, traders have worked up an appetite for more risky assets.

The trend line runs through 134.50 and 133.89 levels. Buyers are currently 50 pips away from it. If we don’t see any renewed pressure on the euro on Monday and buyers break through the trend line, quotes will rise further to 134.50. The immediate target on the weekly timeframe is 136.00.

Fig 1. EURJPY 4-hour timeframe. Source: TradingView

By Veselin Petkov, Alpari

By Gabriel Ojimadu, Alpari

Trading opportunities on the currency pair: 147.81 level has been broken. The next mid-term target is 161.60. On the 4-hour chart, the price is expected to break out of the downwards channel with a target of 150.50. If Brexit talks go well, we can entertain a rise in quotes to around 151.00 – 152.00. The price won’t grow to 161.60 if the weekly candlestick closes below the TR3 line (143.97 at the last bar).

Background

The previous idea on the GBPJPY currency pair was published on the 14^th of August. At press time, the British pound was trading at 142.02 against the yen. Moving from the trend line, the pound was expected to rise with an initial target of 147.81 by the 20^th of September (see chart below). Despite the false breakout of the trend line, buyers managed to bring the price up to this level by the 7^th of September. The technical picture changed slightly after the false breakout.

Fig1. Weekly chart.

Growth petered out at around 152, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci level from the downwards movement from 195.86 to 124.79. Since breaking 147.82, the next target is 161.60. The TR3 trend line has undergone a correction through 139.31 level and the support currently runs through 144.

Fig 2. 4-hour chart.

The pair has been trading inside the downwards channel since the 2^nd of November. On Friday, the pound rose to the upper boundary of the channel as the US dollar declined and traders’ appetite for risk increased.

Considering that the price has rebounded from the support zone of 147.64/80 (see weekly chart), I’m expecting the price to exit the channel, breaking 149.50 and continuing to 150.50. If Brexit talks go smoothly, we could see quotes rise to 151.00 – 152.00.

Article By RoboForex.com

XAU USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see at the H4 chart, the XAU/USD pair is still forming a mid-term correction with the targets at the retracements of 50.0% and 61.8% at 1308.60 and 1320.20 respectively. If the price breaks 1320.20 and fixes above it, the instrument may start forming a new mid-term rising impulse.

At the H1 chart, the pair is forming a new ascending impulse with the closest targets inside the post-correctional extension area between the retracements of 138.2% and 161.8% at 1269.65 and 1299.78 respectively.

USD CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

At the H4 chart, the descending correction continues and has already reached 38.2%. The next targets of this correction are the retracements of 50.0% and 61.8% at 0.9730 and 0.9657 respectively.

At the H1 chart, the pair is forming the descending impulse along with the convergence, which means that after reaching the local target at 0.9730, the price may start a new pullback towards the retracement of 50.0% at 0.9837.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

The EUR/USD pair has reached the first target and expanded the consolidation range upwards. Possibly, today the price may fall with the target at 1.1833 and then form another ascending structure towards 1.1953. After that, the instrument may start another consolidation range near the highs.

GBP USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

The GBP/USD pair is still consolidating near the highs. If later the instrument breaks this range to the downside, the market may continue the correction towards 1.3198; if to the upside – grow to reach 1.3446.

USD CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

The USD/CHF pair is consolidating near the lows. We think, the price may break this range upwards to reach 0.9873 and then form another descending structure towards 0.9830. Later, in our opinion, the market may continue growing with the target at 0.9945.

USD JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

The USD/JPY pair has finished the ascending impulse towards 111.32. Possibly, today the price may form anther impulse to reach 111.84, break it, and then grow with the target at 112.31.

AUD USD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

The AUD/USD pair has reached 0.7596. We think, today the price may grow towards 0.7663 and then fall to return to 0.7596.

USD RUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

The USD/RUB pair is consolidating below 58.58. If later the instrument breaks this range to the downside, the market may continue falling inside the downtrend towards 56.55; if to the upside – grow to reach the target at 59.50.

XAU USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is falling towards 1284 and may later move upwards to reach 1290, thus forming another consolidation range. If later the instrument breaks this range to the upside, the market may continue growing towards 1311; if to the downside – fall to reach 1271.

BRENT

Brent is trading to expand the range towards 64.00. After that, the instrument may fall to reach 63.20 and then continue growing towards the local predicted target at 64.85.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

By Gabriel Ojimadu, Alpari

By GrowthAces.com

EUR/USD continues its rise on reduced political uncertainty in Germany

Macroeconomic overview:

• German Ifo institute said its business climate index rose to 117.5 from an upwardly revised reading of 116.8 in October. The reading was higher than market forecast of 116.6. A business expectations reading surged to 111.0 from 109.2.
• The upbeat data was followed by positive political developments after German Chancellor Angela Merkel – whose chances for a fourth term were plunged into doubt a week ago when three-way coalition talks with the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) and Greens collapsed – was handed a political lifeline by the Social Democrats (SPD).
• That helped ease worries about political instability in the country as Leaders Merkel’s conservative party agreed on Sunday to pursue a “grand coalition” with the SPD.
• In contrast, the dollar lacked momentum of its own as persistently low inflation is seen as undermining the case for the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes. Investors are looking to the Congressional hearing on Fed Chair nominee Jerome Powell on Tuesday. President Donald Trump’s tax reform plan is also in focus. Trump is due to meet Senate Republicans on Tuesday to discuss the party’s efforts to pass tax reform legislation.
• The EUR/USD remains one of the outperformers, now trading above 1.1900 and not too far away from this year’s high at 1.2092. We expect the bias to remain to the upside, with EUR/USD gravitating towards 1.20 (or above) as we head towards year-end.

Technical analysis and trading signals:

• The EUR/USD rallied to a new trend high today. Friday’s close above the cloud was bullish but market could be overstretched. We are looking to take profit at 1.1960.
• The medium-term outlook remains bullish. Our next strategy will be to use corrective action as opportunities to join the bull trend.

USD/JPY hit by comments from BoJ

Macroeconomic overview:

• Bank of Japan board member Hitoshi Suzuki said there is room to debate a fine-tuning of the central bank’s yield curve control policy. Suzuki also said also that the BOJ could slow its purchases of exchange-traded funds (ETF) or change the way it buys them in the future.
• The remarks by Suzuki are the strongest signal to date that the BOJ could move up its interest rate targets before 2% inflation is achieved, to ease the hit to bank margins from years of ultra-low borrowing costs. Suzuki said the BOJ’s negative rate policy is having a “significant” impact on financial institutions’ profits.
• The USD/JPY continues to be under selling pressure, now trading at the edge of 111.00. Aside from dollar weakness, the pair was hit overnight by BoJ member Hitoshi Suzuki’s comments. While inflation is nowhere close to the 2% target, the fact of the matter is that it has improved considerably over the course of 2017. For a forward-looking central bank, this ought to be taken into consideration. We maintain the view that next year the odds are for the BoJ to adjust (or drop) its yield-curve management control program and we still think that there is scope for depreciation in USD/JPY from here.

Technical analysis and trading signals:

• The USD/JPY risk is for an eventual breakdown below 111.03, 50% retrace of 107.33  to 114.73 (September to November) rise, which will unmask 110.16, 61.8% of the  same gain. Spot remains stuck below the 200-DMA, which is currently at 111.71, the underlying trajectory remains on the downside.
• We remain short at 113.10 for 110.30.

TRADING STRATEGIES SUMMARY:

FOREX – MAJOR PAIRS:

FOREX – MAJOR CROSSES:

PRECIOUS METALS:

How to read these tables?

1. Support/Resistance – three closest important support/resistance levels
2. Position/Trading Idea:
BUY/SELL – It means we are looking to open LONG/SHORT position at the Entry Price. If the order is filled we will set the suggested Target and Stop-loss level.
LONG/SHORT – It means we have already taken this position at the Entry Price and expect the rate to go up/down to the Target level.
3. Stop-Loss/Profit Locked In – Sometimes we move the stop-loss level above (in case of LONG) or below (in case of SHORT) the Entry price. This means that we have locked in profit on this position.
4. Risk Factor – green “*” means high level of confidence (low level of uncertainty), grey “**” means medium level of confidence, red “***” means low level of confidence (high level of uncertainty)
5. Position Size (forex)– position size suggested for a USD 10,000 trading account in mini lots. You can calculate your position size as follows: (your account size in USD / USD 10,000) * (our position size). You should always round the result down. For example, if the result was 2.671, your position size should be 2 mini lots. This would be a great tool for your risk management!
Position size (precious metals) – position size suggested for a USD 10,000 trading account in units. You can calculate your position size as follows: (your account size in USD / USD 10,000) * (our position size).
6. Profit/Loss on recently closed position (forex) – is the amount of pips we have earned/lost on recently closed position. The amount in USD is calculated on the assumption of suggested position size for USD 10,000 trading account.
Profit/Loss on recently closed position (precious metals) – is profit/loss we have earned/lost per unit on recently closed position. The amount in USD is calculated on the assumption of suggested position size for USD 10,000 trading account.

VIP Traders Club members should expect to receive forex and precious metals trading signals updates at least twice a day. We will send you:

1. Buy and sell forex, precious metals signals (entry level, target, stop-loss)
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4. Forecasts of most important macroeconomic indicators prepared by our economists and econometricians.

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By GrowthAces.com – Daily Forex Trading Strategies