Author Archive for InvestMacro – Page 443

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 16.02.2018 (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDRUB, GOLD, BRENT)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD has formed another consolidation range and broken it upwards; right now, it is still moving upwards. Possibly, the price may reach 1.2562 and then fall towards the downside border of the range at 1.2457. If later the instrument breaks this level downwards, the market may start the first descending wave to reach 1.2337. However, if the instrument rebounds from 1.2500 and updates its highs, the market may grow with the target at 1.2630.

EURUSDRisk Warning: the results of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is still moving upwards. Possibly, the price may expand the range towards 1.4168 and then fall to reach 1.4022. If later the instrument breaks this level downwards, the market may resume trading to the downside to reach 1.3873. However, if the instrument breaks the high, the market may continue moving upwards with the target at 1.4246.

GBPUSDRisk Warning: the results of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF is moving downwards; it has expanded the range towards 0.9180 and then reached 0.9272. If later the instrument breaks this range to the downside, the market may continue falling to reach 0.9082; if to the upside – resume growing with the target at 0.9360.

USDCHFRisk Warning: the results of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY is moving downwards. Today, the price may extend the wave and reach 105.50 and then grow towards 106.84. If later the instrument breaks this range to the upside, the market may continue moving upwards to reach 108.20; if to the downside – resume trading to the downside with the target at 104.20.

USDJPYRisk Warning: the results of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is moving upwards; it has broken its consolidation channel to the upside and may grow to reach 0.8010. After that, the instrument may fall towards 0.7891 and then start another ascending structure with the target at 0.8050.

AUDUSDRisk Warning: the results of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future.

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB has reached the target of the first descending wave and formed another consolidation range. If later the instrument breaks this range to the upside, the market may start another correction to reach 57.80; if to the downside – continue trading downwards with the target at 55.61.

USDRUBRisk Warning: the results of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold has formed another consolidation channel and right now is trying to break it to the upside. If it succeeds, the price may grow towards 1366.00 and then fall to reach 1349.00. In case the latter level is broken, the instrument may continue falling with the target at 1322.00.

GOLDRisk Warning: the results of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future.

BRENT

Brent has almost finished the ascending structure with the target at 65.50. Today, the price may reach this level and then start another correction towards 63.60. Later, the market may resume growing to reach 67.45.

BRENTRisk Warning: the results of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future.

 

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Forex market review (16/02/18)

By Veselin Petkov, Alpari

 

Ahead of today’s European session, the euro is continuing on its upwards trajectory against the US dollar. At the time of writing, the EURUSD pair is trading at the 1.2547 mark. This marks a rise of 0.9 cents for the euro against the dollar over the last 24 hours.

In my opinion, the EURUSD pair’s rise has been caused by two major factors. First of all, it’s likely that the Eurozone’s economy will grow by 2% or more in 2018. Secondly, the US economy is unlikely to grow by more than 2%. Given this divergence in potential for economic growth, the euro seems to be on a stable upwards trajectory against the dollar.

Today, I’d advise paying attention to the data releases on the US housing market for January (new housing starts and building permits), which will be published at 16:30 (GMT+3). However, in my view, this is not a trendsetting indicator, although it has the potential to create some short-term volatility on the dollar.

EURUSD

Yesterday, the EURUSD successfully tested the double top level (1.2480 – 1.2520), which formed on the hourly timeframe at the beginning of February:

Considering that there aren’t any major events on the Forex calendar today, and there aren’t any particularly important statistics on the Eurozone or USA set to be published, it’s my view that, so long as nothing out of the ordinary happens, trading on the EURUSD pair will close somewhere around its current level, i.e. somewhere around the double top levels between 1.2480 and 1.2520.

Buy or Sell? This Insight May Help You Decide

It’s a tough decision. We’d like to help by showing you some unconventional market evidence.

By Elliott Wave International

By February of this year, investors had almost forgotten what stock market volatility looked like.

And then something unprecedented happened. On Monday, Feb. 5, the DJIA closed 1,175 points down, the biggest single-day drop in the index’s history. Since then, stocks have been going haywire.

Was this spike in volatility unpredictable? Hardly. Our December 2017 Financial Forecast warned:

The CBOE Volatility Index declined to 8.56 intraday on Nov. 24, the lowest level in its 30-year history… As we’ve noted, the most placid periods of stock market activity are invariably followed by episodes of extreme volatility…

Sentiment measures had also been sounding an alarm. Here’s just one chart, from our January 2018 Financial Forecast (Elliott wave-labeled version reserved for subscribers):

OptionMarketOptimism

The chart of the 13-day CBOE equity put/call ratio shows that it has declined to .55, with the volume of calls nearly double the volume of puts. Options traders have not been this optimistic in 3½ years. So, trader sentiment is consistent with the optimism of fund managers, hedge fund operators and even the “little guys.”

History shows that such optimistic extremes are contrarian indicators. Investors who heeded these warnings were not surprised by the volatility eruption — indeed, they expected it.

OK. So, what now? It this 10% drop in the Dow a buying opportunity — or the big reversal?

This is the big question, and the mainstream view is clearly leaning towards the bullish view:

  • 10 Blue-Chip Stocks to Put on Your “Buy the Dip” List — (Kiplinger, Feb. 2)
  • 3 Stocks to Buy When the Market Crashes — (The Motley Fool, Feb. 5)
  • Now is the time to buy equities… says CIO — (CNBC, Feb. 5)

Market optimists may turn out to be correct. Maybe it’s just a bump in the road.

Then again, maybe sentiment measures continue to tell another story.

EWI’s Robert Folsom just posted a special video titled “More Bullish Than Ever.”

Watch it.

Then, make up your own mind about the bullish or bearish prospects for the stock market.

The URGENCY of Up-to-Date Stock Market Sentiment

The February 2018 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast Short Term Update said this:

We know from our own experiences how tough a taskmaster Mr. Market is, which is why we constantly point out the importance of sentiment extremes in the context of a progressing Elliott wave structure.

With that in mind — our just-produced video delivers the sentiment readings that you need to know about NOW.

HINT: Near the video’s beginning, you’ll learn about a market-related event in January 2018 that is jaw-droppingly similar to a development that unfolded in February 2000 — yes, around the time of the historic stock market top of that year.

Watch this video now!

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Buy or Sell? This Insight May Help You Decide. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 09.02.2018 (BITCOIN, ETHEREUM)

Article By RoboForex.com

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the convergence made BTCUSD reverse and start a new ascending correction, which has already reached the retracement of 23.6%. In the short-term, the price may continue the correction towards the retracements of 38.2%, 50.0%, and 61.8% at 10270.00, 11620.00, and 12940.00 respectively. However, if the pair completes the correction soon and breaks the low at 5980.00, the instrument may continue falling to reach the post-correctional extension area between the retracements of 138.2% and 161.8% at 5000.00 and 4364.00 respectively.

BTCUSD1
Risk Warning: the results of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future.

In the H1 chart, the pair is trading upwards to reach 10270.00.

BTCUSD2Risk Warning: the results of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future.

ETHUSD, “Ethereum vs. US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, ETHUSD is forming a new ascending correction after the convergence. By now, the correction has already reached the retracement of 38.2%. The next targets may be the retracements of 50.0% and 61.8% at 914.00 and 998.00 respectively. However, after breaking the low at 570.00, the price may continue falling towards the post-correctional extension area between the retracements of 138.2% and 161.8% at 465.00 and 396.90 respectively.

ETHUSD1
Risk Warning: the results of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future.

In the H1 chart, the pair is trading towards 914.00 and 998.00.

ETHUSD2Risk Warning: the results of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future.

 

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 09.02.2018 (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDRUB, GOLD, BRENT)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD has reached the target of the third descending wave; right now, it is consolidating near the lows. Possibly, today the price may grow towards 1.2293, break it, and then continue the correction to reach 1.2340.

EURUSDRisk Warning: the results of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is still consolidating near the lows. Possibly, the price may continue the correction to reach 1.4077 and then fall towards 1.3811. Later, the market may resume moving upwards with the target at 1.4133.

GBPUSDRisk Warning: the results of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF is being corrected; it has already reached the predicted target. Today, the price may consolidate near the lows and reach 0.9335. After that, the instrument may continue moving upwards with the target at 0.9511.

USDCHFRisk Warning: the results of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY is moving downwards. Possibly, the price may reach 108.36 and then resume growing with the target at 110.60.

USDJPYRisk Warning: the results of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is also moving downwards. Today, the price may reach 0.7720 and then start another correction towards 0.7898. After that, the instrument may resume trading to the downside with the target at 0.7682.

AUDUSDRisk Warning: the results of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future.

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB has finished the correction. Possibly, today the price may start consolidating. If later the instrument breaks this range to the downside, the market may continue falling to reach 54.88; if to the upside – extend this structure towards 58.50.

USDRUBRisk Warning: the results of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is still consolidating near the lows. If later the instrument breaks this range to the downside, the market may continue falling to reach 1295; if to the upside – start another correction with the target at 1339.

GOLDRisk Warning: the results of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future.

BRENT

Brent continues falling. According to the main scenario, the price may consolidate near the lows. If later the instrument breaks this range to the upside, the market may start a new ascending wave towards 67.95.

BRENTRisk Warning: the results of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future.

 

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

EURUSD: buyers trying to induce a reversal

By Gabriel Ojimadu, Alpari

Previous:

On Thursday the 8th of February, trading on the euro closed slightly down. A low of 1.2212 was hit on the back of a sharp jump on the British pound and the collapse of the EURGBP cross following the conclusion of the Bank of England’s meeting.

When the cross pair reversed upwards, buyers hit a new session high. The rally failed to continue, however, as global stock markets came under pressure once again. Consequently, there was renewed demand for the safe haven assets: Swiss franc, yen, and gold. The euro eventually stabilised around the 1.2254 mark.

FOMC member William Dudley said yesterday that expectations of three interest rate hikes this year were justified. He added that these expectations were causing the corrective pressure currently weighing down the stock market. US stock traders started closing their long positions in anticipation of the Fed tightening monetary policy.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

  • 12:30 UK: industrial production (Dec), manufacturing production (Dec), trade balance (Dec).
  • 16:00 UK: NIESR GDP estimate (Jan).
  • 16:30 Canada: unemployment rate (Jan).
  • 21:00 USA: Baker Hughes US oil rig count.

Fig 1. EURUSD hourly chart. Source: TradingView

The crosses dragged the euro down to 1.2212 against the greenback, so my expectations of a rise did not come to pass. Still, the pair didn’t drop too far despite the sharp decline on the EURGBP cross. We eventually saw a reversal model form on the hourly timeframe. It looks a bit like a diamond formation, although I’m reluctant to call it that.

The direction in which the price exits this formation should determine the direction for the rest of the day. If the price exits upwards, we can start looking at 1.2313 at the 67th degree and the trend line projected from 1.2518. If the pair exits downwards, the first target for the bears will be 1.2212.

Technical factors and cycles on the hourly timeframe indicate a rising euro. Almost all of the euro crosses are trading up at the moment. The franc and the yen are correcting after yesterday’s movements, which could push the EURUSD and GBPUSD pairs up by 20 – 30 pips.

Invest by Watching News? Accept These Pitfalls

Many investors “operate under the assumption that events dictate market movements.” They don’t.

By Elliott Wave International

Is Your Portfolio Built on False Assumptions?
Download this Free 33-Page Report to Find Out.

Did you know that the vast majority of portfolios are built on false assumptions? These false assumptions — or Market Myths — have been passed down across generations. They are so baked into investor psyche that no one ever thinks to challenge them… but we do. Do earnings really drive stock prices? Can the FDIC actually protect you? Is portfolio diversification a smart move? Download Market Myths Exposed now and find out whether your portfolio is built on flawed foundations. We guarantee you’ll be shocked to find the truth.

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This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Invest by Watching News? Accept These Pitfalls. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 08.02.2018 (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDRUB, GOLD, BRENT)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD has reached the local target of the third descending wave. Possibly, today the price may consolidate near the lows. After breaking the range downwards, the instrument may start another correction to reach 1.2338 and then resume falling with the target at 1.2222.

EURUSD

Risk Warning: the results of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is still consolidating near the lows. If later the instrument breaks this range to the downside, the market may continue falling to reach 1.3800; if to the upside – resume moving upwards with the target at 1.4040.

GBPUSD

Risk Warning: the results of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF is consolidating at the top. Today, the price may fall towards 0.9400 and then continue moving upwards to reach the short-term target at 0.9465.

USDCHF

Risk Warning: the results of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY is consolidating; it has tried to break the upside border. Possibly, today the price may form another ascending structure towards 110.13. Later, the market may fall to reach 109.67 and then resume growing with the target at 110.60.

USDJPY

Risk Warning: the results of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD has reached the local target of the descending wave at 0.7815. Today, the price may grow towards 0.7895. After that, the instrument may resume trading to the downside with the target at 0.7712.

AUDUSD

Risk Warning: the results of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future.

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

Today’s trading session was opened with a gap up and, as a result, USDRUB has reached the target of the ascending wave. This wave may be considered as a correction. Possibly, the price may start another decline with the first target at 56.56.

USDRUB

Risk Warning: the results of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold has almost reached its downside target. Today, the price may start another correction with the target at 1339.00. Later, the market may resume falling towards 1293.00.

GOLD

Risk Warning: the results of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future.

BRENT

Brent has extended the descending wave and completed the third structure. The target is at 65.60. Possibly, today the price may start another correction towards 67.94 and then fall with the target at 64.82.

BRENT

Risk Warning: the results of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future.

 

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Murrey Math Lines 08.02.2018 (USDCHF, GOLD)

Article By RoboForex.com

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

As we can see in the H4 chart, USDCHF has broken the 5/8 level and left its consolidation range. However, the price is very likely to break the above-mentioned level again and return into the range. As a result, the instrument may start a new decline to reach the 4/8 level.

USDCHF1
Risk Warning: the results of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future.

In the H1 chart, the pair may break the 5/8 level and resume falling towards the first target at the 3/8 one. The main downside target is the support at the 0/8 level.

USDCHF2
Risk Warning: the results of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future.

In the M15 chart, the pair may break the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, continue moving downwards.

USDCHF3Risk Warning: the results of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the price is consolidating between the 3/8 and 5/8 levels. Later, XAUUSD is expected to rebound from the support at the 4/8 level and grow towards the resistance at the 5/8 one.

GOLD1
Risk Warning: the results of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future.

In the H1 chart, the price may break the 0/8 level and then resume growing to reach the resistance at the 2/8 one.

GOLD2Risk Warning: the results of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future.

 

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

EURUSD: euro slumps to reversal zone at 112 – 135 degrees

By Gabriel Ojimadu, Alpari

Previous:

On Wednesday the 7th of February, trading on the euro closed down. The EURUSD pair fell from 1.2405 to 1.2246 (-159 pips). The main driver behind the dollar’s surge was the rise in US bond yields coupled with the extension of US government funding until the 23rd of March. This downwards dynamic on the EURUSD was enough to sink the EURGBP cross as well.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

  • 10:00 Germany: trade balance (Dec).
  • 12:00 Eurozone: economic bulletin.
  • 15:00 UK: BoE interest rate decision, asset purchase facility, BoE quarterly inflation report.
  • 15:30 UK: BoE Governor Mark Carney’s speech.
  • 16:30 USA: initial jobless claims (2 Feb).

Fig 1. EURUSD hourly chart. Source: TradingView

My prediction of a reversal model failed. The news surrounding the dollar as well as a renewed decline on the euro crosses combined to block buyers from opening new long positions. The bears ended up pushing the price into the reversal zone between the 112th and 135th degrees. The euro’s decline subsided as it reached the D3 MA line.

Yesterday, sellers broke the 1.2295 support. The technical picture on the daily timeframe is looking bearish, but the 1-hour and 4-hour timeframes show the euro recovering by the end of the week.

Considering that yesterday’s drop came to around 150 pips, a good initial target for buyers would be to return to the trend line at 1.2358 (90 degrees). If the daily candlestick closes above 1.23, this would create a buy signal. If the hour closes below 1.2238, however, this will scupper any growth prospects.

I’m relying on my forecast to come good before the week is out.