Author Archive for InvestMacro – Page 417

WTI Crude Oil Speculators reduced bullish bets for 5th straight week

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WTI Crude Oil Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large energy speculators lowered their bullish net positions once again in the WTI Crude Oil futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of WTI Crude Oil futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 633,386 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday May 22nd. This was a weekly fall of -11,058 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 644,444 net contracts.

Speculative positions have fallen for five consecutive weeks and by a total of -94,745 net contracts over that time-frame. The current speculative standing is at the lowest bullish level since January 2nd when net positions totaled +624,213 contracts

WTI Crude Oil Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -665,502 contracts on the week. This was a weekly uptick of 8,873 contracts from the total net of -674,375 contracts reported the previous week.

USO:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the USO Crude Oil ETF, which tracks the price of WTI crude oil, closed at approximately $14.56 which was an increase of $0.16 from the previous close of $14.4, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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10-Year Note Speculators pared their bearish net positions for 4th week

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10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators cut back on their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -358,627 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday May 22nd. This was a weekly rise of 23,295 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -381,922 net contracts.

Speculative bearish positions have fallen for four consecutive weeks and by a total of +103,506 net contracts after touching a record high bearish position on April 24th.  The overall bearish net position is at the least bearish standing since April 10th when net positions totaled -330,635 contracts.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 630,213 contracts on the week. This was a weekly gain of 13,230 contracts from the total net of 616,983 contracts reported the previous week.

IEF ETF:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) closed at approximately $100.78 which was an uptick of $0.15 from the previous close of $100.63, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Bitcoin Speculators cut back on their bearish net positions this week

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Bitcoin Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large cryptocurrency speculators reduced their bearish net positions in the Bitcoin futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Bitcoin futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -1,659 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday May 22nd. This was a weekly increase of 215 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,874 net contracts.

Speculative bearish positions had increased for the previous two weeks before this week’s edge down lower.

Small traders, meanwhile, trimmed their existing bullish positions this week by an equally offsetting -215 contracts to the current level of 1,659 net contracts.

Bitcoin Futures COT Data: Speculators vs Small Traders

The Bitcoin futures data is in its twenty-third week since the beginning of the cryptocurrency futures data releases on December 19th. The data includes trader classifications of only speculators and small traders and without commercial traders (typically business hedgers or producers of a commodity).

Speculators have remained on bearish side since the beginning of the bitcoin data releases while the small traders continue to be on the bullish side of this market.

Bitcoin per USD:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Bitcoin Cryptocurrency Futures closed at approximately $8071.03 which was a drop of $-425.15 from the previous close of $8496.18, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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S&P500 Mini Speculators reduced bullish net positions for 2nd time in 3 weeks

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S&P500 Mini Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large stock market speculators lowered their bullish net positions in the S&P500 Mini futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of S&P500 Mini futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 185,244 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday May 22nd. This was a weekly decrease of -13,561 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 198,805 net contracts.

Speculative positions remain in a very bullish level although positions have declined for two out of the past three weeks and for six out of the past ten weeks.

Right now, this market is being supported by the speculators as well as strongly by the small traders who have increased their bullish bets for ten straight weeks to a total of +346,174 net contracts. On the bearish side, commercials have upped their bearish position to the highest level (-531,418 contracts) in two decades.

S&P500 Mini Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -531,418 contracts on the week. This was a weekly decline of -20,045 contracts from the total net of -511,373 contracts reported the previous week.

The commercials bearish positions have gained for eight out of the past nine weeks and are now at the highest bearish standing since at least 1997.

SPY ETF:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the SPY ETF, which tracks the price of S&P500 Index, closed at approximately $272.61 which was an uptick of $1.51 from the previous close of $271.1, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Gold Speculators drop bullish bets for 2nd week, 4 out of last 5 weeks

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Gold Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators continued to decrease their bullish net positions in the Gold futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 90,957 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday May 22nd. This was a weekly fall of -1,486 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 92,443 net contracts.

Speculators have been paring their gold bets rather sharply over the past few months. Gold bets have now declined for four out of the past five weeks and for seven out of the past ten weeks. The total decline over the past ten weeks has been by -76,991 contracts and has brought spec positions to a new lowest level since July 25th 2017.

Gold Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -115,575 contracts on the week. This was a weekly advance of 2,514 contracts from the total net of -118,089 contracts reported the previous week.

GLD ETF:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the GLD ETF, which tracks the price of gold, closed at approximately $122.41 which was a shortfall of $-0.07 from the previous close of $122.48, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Eurodollar Speculators cut back on their bearish net positions for 2nd week

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Eurodollar Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large speculators reduced their bearish net positions in the Eurodollar futures (not euro currency) markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Eurodollar futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -3,781,320 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday May 22nd. This was a weekly lift of 21,808 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,803,128 net contracts.

Speculative bearish positions in the Eurodollar futures market have declined for two weeks and are now at the least bearish level since February 20th.

Eurodollar Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 4,500,947 contracts on the week. This was a weekly fall of -27,689 contracts from the total net of 4,528,636 contracts reported the previous week.

ED Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Eurodollar Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $96.94 which was an uptick of $0.005 from the previous close of $96.935, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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VIX Speculators continued to raise their bearish net positions this week

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VIX Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large volatility speculators continued to increase their bearish net positions in the VIX futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of VIX futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -25,556 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday May 22nd. This was a weekly decrease of -21,824 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,732 net contracts.

Speculative positions had reached a record high bullish position on April 10th with a total of +92,913 contracts. Since then, speculators have cut their positions for six straight weeks and by a total of -118,469 contracts to the current bearish level.

VIX Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 28,441 contracts on the week. This was a weekly uptick of 19,927 contracts from the total net of 8,514 contracts reported the previous week.

VIX:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the VIX, which tracks the volatility of the S&P500, closed at approximately $13.22 which was a decrease of $-1.41 from the previous close of $14.63, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Silver Speculators sharply boosted their bullish net positions this week

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Silver Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators sharply lifted their bullish net positions in the Silver futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Silver futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 15,225 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday May 22nd. This was a weekly increase of 14,567 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 658 net contracts.

Speculative bets in favor of silver have risen for three straight weeks and positions are at the highest level since February 2nd when net positions totaled +16,540 contracts. Silver bets are now in positive territory after being in an overall short position for seven out of the previous eight weeks.

Silver Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -31,423 contracts on the week. This was a weekly loss of -13,357 contracts from the total net of -18,066 contracts reported the previous week.

SLV ETF:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the SLV ishares ETF, which tracks the price of silver, closed at approximately $15.58 which was a rise of $0.25 from the previous close of $15.33, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Copper Speculators increased their bullish net positions for 2nd week

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Copper Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large metals speculators advanced their bullish net positions in the Copper futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Copper futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 39,012 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday May 22nd. This was a weekly boost of 2,657 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,355 net contracts.

Speculative positions have gained for the past two weeks following two weeks of losses. The overall net bullish position remains just a bit under the +40,000 contract level for a fourth straight week.

Copper Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -43,749 contracts on the week. This was a weekly decrease of -2,472 contracts from the total net of -41,277 contracts reported the previous week.

Copper Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Copper Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $313.20 which was an uptick of $7.60 from the previous close of $305.60, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Indonesia to hold unscheduled meeting, rupiah rises

By CentralBankNews.info
      Indonesia’s central bank will hold “an additional” monthly meeting of its governors on May 30, igniting speculation that it will raise its key interest rates for the second time this month.
       Bank Indonesia (BI) said in a brief statement on Friday the additional meeting of its board of governors (RDG) would not replace the regular monthly meeting, which is scheduled for June 28.
       “This additional monthly RDG will discuss current economic and monetary conditions and future prospects,” BI said.
       On May 17 BI raised its benchmark BI 7-day reverse repo rate by 25 basis points to 4.50 percent its first rate hike since November 2014, “amid the escalating risks in the global financial market and global liquidity downturn.” BI’s other key rates, the deposit and lending facility rates, were also raised by 25 points.
       BI added on that day that it was “ready to implement stronger measures to maintain macroeconomic stability” and the governor subsequently said he was prepared to raise rates further.
        Since that board meeting, Perry Wariyo has taken over as governor after Agus Martowardojo’s 5-year term expired.
       At the press conference in connection with his inauguration on May 24, Wariyo said his priority in the short term was to stabilize the rupiah through interest rates, adding he intended to be more pre-emptive in monetary settings.
       So far BI’s main instruments in curbing the rupiah’s decline has been raising interest rates combined with the sales of U.S. dollars and the purchase of government bonds from foreign sellers.
       Last week BI also conducted three foreign exchange swap auctions to ensure enough rupiah liquidity following the rate hike and currency market interventions, up from two the previous week and one each week in April.
       Immediately following last weeks’ rate hike, the rupiah continued to slide to hit 14,210 on Thursday to the dollar, down 4.5 percent since the start of the year.
       But news on Friday of the unscheduled board meeting led to a bounce in the rupiah, which rose to 14,037 per dollar late that day, down 3.3 percent this year.
       Indonesia’s economy has slowed in the last two quarters, with annual growth in the second quarter of 5.06 percent. In its last statement, BI forecast growth this year of 5.1-5.5 percent and in his press conference Warjiyo forecast growth of 5.2 percent.
       He also forecast inflation near the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3.5 percent, plus/minus 1 percentage point.
       In April Indonesia’s inflation rate was steady from March at 3.4 percent.

       www.CentralBankNews.info