Author Archive for InvestMacro – Page 410

Investors await Draghi’s speech a week before ECB meeting

By Orbex

Looking ahead, the economic calendar for the day will see the release of the services PMI data from the Eurozoneand the UK. The services PMI in the UK is forecast to rise to 52.9, marking a slight increase from 52.8 registered in April.

The ECB President, Mario Draghi is expected to speak later in the day. His comments come just a week before the ECB’s meeting. In the U.S. trading session, the ISM’s non-manufacturing PMI data is expected to show an increase to 57.9, marking an increase from 56.8 seen in April.

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EURUSD intra-day analysis

eurusd intraday analysis

EURUSD (1.1692): The EURUSD currency pair was seen posting some gains on the day despite the gains being limited. With the U.S. dollar taking a backseat, the common currency managed to test intraday highs near the resistance level of 1.1730. The gradual consolidation is expected to see the EURUSD maintain the range within 1.1730 and 1.1610 levels. A breakout from this level, preferably to the upside could potentially send the currency pair to test the next main resistance at 1.1840. To the downside, the support at 1.1610 – 1.1577 could stall the declines.

USDJPY intra-day analysis

usdjpy intraday analysis

USDJPY (109.87): The USDJPY currency pair managed to breakout from the resistance level after brief consolidation and pushed modestly higher on the day. The upside is now expected to see the USDJPY aiming for 110.62 level of resistance. However, there is a risk that the currency pair could slip below the support at 109.57 – 109.43. In this event, USDJPY could be seen pushing lower to 108.90 where a retest of support is still pending.

XAUUSD intra-day analysis

xauusd intraday analysis

XAUUSD (1292.08): Gold prices continued to drift lower with the precious metal seen testing the lows of around 1292. We expect to see further declines in the near term as gold prices could likely ease back to the 1282 level of support. Establishing support here could signal a bottom being formed with further gains likely to come to the upside. A breakout of the resistance level near 1304 – 1301 is essential for gold prices to test the next main resistance at 1325.

 

 

 

EURUSD: euro trying to rebound from the trend line

By Gabriel Ojimadu, Alpari

Previous:

On Monday the 4th of June, trading on the euro closed up. Australian data brought with it a wave of bullish optimism. American traders then tamed the bulls to bring the rate back down from 1.1744 to 1.1677 (-67 pips). The US dollar shot up on the back of a rise in US10Y bond yields.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

  • 10:15 Spain: Markit services PMI (May).
  • 10:45 Italy: Markit services PMI (May).
  • 10:50 France: Markit services PMI (May).
  • 10:55 Germany: Markit services PMI (May).
  • 11:00 Eurozone: Markit services PMI (May).
  • 11:30 UK: Markit services PMI (May).
  • 12:00 Eurozone: retail sales (Apr).
  • 15:30 Canada: labour productivity (Q1).
  • 16:45 USA: Markit services PMI (May).
  • 17:00 USA: ISM non-manufacturing PMI (May).
  • 23:30 USA: API weekly crude oil stock.

Fig 1. EURUSD hourly chart. Source: TradingView

The market moved according to its own plan on Monday. I was expecting trading to be flat at around 1.1680 until Tuesday. The rate shot upwards instead, although trading did close around the balance line below 1.17.

The return of the exchange rate to the balance line on the hourly timeframe confirmed the breakout of the trend line as false. On the current hour, the trend line runs through 1.1731.

I’ve detailed two different outcomes on today’s chart because, owing to the uncertainty surrounding the euro crosses, I couldn’t settle on just one.

1) From a technical point of view, this is the ideal place for buying euros. The pair is trading around the trend line, which is drawn through the lows of 1.1519 and 1.1618. The stochastic, which is down, has reversed upwards. Everything here looks excellent in theory.

2) Euro to rise after a drop to 1.1663. There are a few reasons for this; the euro crosses are declining, the dollar is rising in Asia, and an intraday reversal model formed on Monday.

Because of this, the downside risk of breaking through the trend line and dropping to 1.1663 has increased. It could even drop as far as 1.1636. Here, we need to keep an eye on the general sentiment among traders as well as at the dynamics of US bond yields.

Mario Draghi was supposed to give a speech today, but I read that it’s been cancelled. I’d just like to remind you that his speeches have a marked impact on markets in the press conferences that follow ECB meetings.

DAX30 Flat Top Ascending Triangle

By Admiral Markets

EURUSD - 05.06.2018

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5SE Add-on

EUR/USD movement is very important for the understanding of Dax and its unhedged exporters that benefit from a strong USD. Asian Equities rose slightly today, but the Dax 30 still has a resistance to break. The flat top ascending triangle is generally a bullish pattern and only the break of 12819 or 4h close above it, should provide a bullish continuation move. From the POC zone – 12745-12775, the price could bounce towards 12819. Breakout targets 12882 and 12917. Only a strong close above will target 13018 – Weekly H4 level.

W L3 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Support)

W H3 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Resistance)

W H4 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strong Weekly Resistance)

D H4 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Resistance)

D L3 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Support)

D L4 – Daily H4 Camarilla (Very Strong Daily Support)

POC – Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)

Best wishes,

Nenad

Follow Admiral Markets on Facebook – @AdmiralMarkets on Twitter – for the latest market updates.

This material does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice, investment recommendations, an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments. Please note that such trading analysis is not a reliable indicator for any current or future performance, as circumstances may change over time. Before making any investment decisions, you should seek advice from independent financial advisors to ensure you understand the risks

.

Article by Admiral Markets

Source: DAX30 Flat Top Ascending Triangle


Admiral Markets is a leading online provider, offering trading with Forex and CFDs on stocks, indices, precious metals and energy.

 

Technology leads US stocks advance

By IFCMarkets

Nasdaq closes at record

US markets extended gains Monday led by technology shares. The S&P 500 gained 0.5% to 2746.87 with seven of its 11 sectors finishing higher. Dow Jones industrial advanced 0.7% to 24813.69. The Nasdaq composite index climbed 0.7% to record high 7606.464. The dollar weakened: live dollar index data show the ICE US Dollar index, a measure of the dollar’s strength against a basket of six rival currencies, slid 0.2% to 94.004 but is rising currently. Stock index futures point to higher openings today.

Market sentiment remained upbeat after positive May jobs report Friday which showed unemployment fell to 18-month low of 3.8%. Treasury yields rose. Traders of fed funds futures are pricing in a 93.8% probability of a rate hike at June 12-13 Fed meeting as the increase in average hourly earnings at 2.7% over a year ago was better than an expected 2.6% steady gain. There will be no Federal Reserve speeches as the central bank is in its so-called blackout period ahead of its June meeting. Economic data were weak: factory orders fell by above expected 0.8% in April due to a decline in commercial aircraft.

FTSE 100 leads European indices gains

European stock indices extended gains on Monday. The British Pound turned lower against the dollar while euro climbed, with the two currencies moving in opposite directions of their yesterday moves currently. The Stoxx Europe 600 index gained 0.3%. The DAX 30 added 0.2% to 12749.45 and France’s CAC 40 ended 0.4% higher. UK’s FTSE 100 rallied 0.9% to 7768.22. Indices opened flat to 0.3% lower today.

Societe Generale shares rose 0.7% after a Financial Times report that the French bank was in early stage talks with the Italian lender UniCredit about a possible merger. Economic data were weak: producer prices in euro-zone remained steady when 0.3% gain was expected, and Sentix’s investor confidence index for the euro economy came in at 9.3, down from 19.2 in May, marking a fifth straight decline.

Asian indices mixed

Asian stock indices are mixed today against the background of a breakdown of US-China trade talks over the weekend with no agreement. Nikkei rose 0.3% to 22539.54 as yen slide against the dollar slowed. Chinese stocks are rising as Caixin China reported its services purchasing managers’ index remained unchanged at 52.9 in May: the Shanghai Composite Index is up 0.8% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is 0.3% higher. Australia’s All Ordinaries Index however is down 0.5% despite the Australian dollar’s turn lower against the US dollar.

HK50

Brent up

Brent futures prices are higher today. Prices fell Monday on concerns that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries could lift its crude output curbs at the meeting later this month. August Brent crude settled 2% lower at $75.29 a bar.

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets

Note:
This overview has an informative and tutorial character and is published for free. All the data, included in the overview, are received from public sources, recognized as more or less reliable. Moreover, there is no guarantee that the indicated information is full and precise. Overviews are not updated. The whole information in each overview, including opinion, indicators, charts and anything else, is provided only for familiarization purposes and is not financial advice or а recommendation. The whole text and its any part, as well as the charts cannot be considered as an offer to make a deal with any asset. IFC Markets and its employees under any circumstances are not liable for any action taken by someone else during or after reading the overview.

AUD in focus ahead of RBA minutes

Article by ForexTime

The Australian dollar has been the star of the show today as retail sales data m/m beat expectations coming in at 0.4% (0.3% exp), showcasing that the Australian economy is indeed growing and better than expected. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will be keeping a close eye on market movements and is likely to be more hawkish given the data we’ve had recently. So expectations will be high for tomorrows rate rise talk and the wording that will be used by the RBA. Potentially we could see some talk of a rate rise, but the reality is that it’s likely sometime off given the commodity woes the Australian economy has had previously.

As a result the AUDUSD has been very strong on the charts and is likely to keep performing strongly against most major pairs. Resistance however has been very strong at 0.7661 and slowed down any further rises for the pair after today’s large jump. The next level can be found at 0.7751 and is likely to be a hard level to breakthrough given the 200 day moving average is around there as well, and technical bulls will be weary of such a level. Support levels can also be found at 0.7588 and 0.7527, but for now it looks like the bearish run may have been broken and the bulls are back in control. All in all, the focus will be on the RBA meeting tomorrow so I would expect some large movements from the AUDUSD and these levels will be key for traders.

One of other key movers today has been the Euro, and the Italy effect. The current new government is looking to pass a number of new measures to help stimulate the economy, one of them being a flat tax for corporations which will put pressure on its fiscal position and other potential changes for families. These are likely to get the bears stirred back up in the market as  traders are keen to take advantage of the changes and in fighting from the Euro-zone. Certainly this is a new time for Italy, but changes in politics is nothing new there. The real test will be how the economy performs with these measures and so far markets are not impressed at all.

The EURUSD on the charts so far has been boosted by weaker US data which came out a short time ago and the bullish movements we saw previously were weaker off the back of the data. Looking at the chart it’s clear to see that resistance at 1.1719 and the 20 day moving average are likely to stop bullish movements. If we saw a bullish extension movement then 1.1824 is likely to be the focus for traders. Bearish movements are likely to find support at 1.1622 and 1.1535 in the long run. For now the Bears have paused, but with Italy throwing curveballs the Euro is likely to take a hit in the short to medium term.

Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Money Metals Is the Best Place to Sell Your Metal

By Money Metals News Service

We don’t talk about it much, but Money Metals Exchange is literally the best in the nation when it comes to buying precious metals from clients who need to sell. We’ll explain why that is in just a moment. First, however, it’s important to explain why we don’t promote it, despite having several competitive advantages.

We just don’t think most people should be selling metals, at least not now.

Buy, Hold, Sell

In fact, holding a position in physical bullion is, we believe, more important than ever. Our position on that hasn’t changed, even though the sideways action in the metals markets in recent years has sometimes been frustrating and difficult to watch.

The dollar’s future is more bleak than ever. The U.S. borrows too much, spends too much, and promises too much.

A national bankruptcy is coming and it will destroy confidence, the ephemeral foundation underpinning the Federal Reserve Note dollar.

We believe this is a truth which cannot be avoided, and no amount of price rigging or central economic planning can change it.

That said, it has always been a priority for us to make an honest and fair two-way market for our clients. We’re committed to supporting them whether they need to buy OR sell.

And there are, of course, plenty of good reasons to sell metal. Sometimes folks simply need cash for some other purpose – and gold and silver are highly liquid assets. Or maybe they simply disagree with our take on where the precious metals markets are headed.

So Money Metals has been steadily building tools to make it even easier for sellers as well.

Our “Sell to Us” Pricing Is the Best in America, Fully Transparent, and with No Minimums

For starters, anyone can easily find exactly what our bid price is online, day or night. We publish a “sell to us” price for virtually all of our products – even as our competitors don’t. To see our “sell to us” price, just find the coin, round, or bar in question at MoneyMetals.com and look below the product photo.

These offer prices happen to be some of the highest in the nation, which is why we are especially proud to publish them live – and shame our competitors in doing so.

And unlike other dealers, there is no minimum quantity requirement, and it does not matter where the metal was originally purchased. Anyone can get the published “sell to us” price, even if they have only a few ounces of silver to sell.

You Can Sell to Us Instantly Online or By Phone

But our competitive advantages don’t stop there. Your sell price can be locked in a matter of seconds, either online (24/7) or by phone. Checkout online is easy. The process is very similar to buying an item at MoneyMetals.com – meaning straightforward and simple.

Or give us a call at 1-800-800-1865 to lock pricing with one of our knowledgeable specialists. Either way, clients will get immediate confirmation by email, including shipping instructions.

Every confirmation includes a link to a quick video with tips on how to package and ship the metals securely.

Money in the Mail

Clients get their choice of how they will be paid. They can select payment by check or by electronic credit to a checking or savings account via direct deposit.

Or they may even choose to receive payment in Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum, Litecoin and Dash. Money Metals Exchange is the Crypto/Metals HQ in the United States.

For those who want to swap gold and silver for the most popular cryptocurrencies, or vice versa, there is nowhere better. Not even close.

We make all payments promptly following receipt of the metals. Customers can lock pricing today and have funds in 3-4 days, even sooner if your metals shipment to us is expedited.

The services above are why Money Metals Exchange is the best and most convenient place to sell your precious metals. No one else offers the tools for sellers that we do, and that is not hyperbole. It’s a fact.


The Money Metals News Service provides market news and crisp commentary for investors following the precious metals markets.

Kazakhstan cuts rate 25 bps but signals easing pause

By CentralBankNews.info
      Kazakhstan’s central bank lowered its base rate by another 25 basis points to 9.0 percent, as it signaled in April, but said monetary conditions were now at a neutral level and the risks that will limit the rate of decline in inflation this year and next year would restrain further rate cuts this year.
      It is the fourth consecutive rate cut by the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) and the rate has now been cut by a total of 125 basis points this year. Since May 2016, when the central bank embarked on an easing cycle, the base rate has been lowered by 800 points.
      Today’s rate cut was in response to the continued decline in inflation and inflation expectations as well as favorable trends in world oil markets, NBK Governor Daniyar Akishev told a televised press conference.
      Kazakhstan’s inflation rate eased to 6.2 percent in May from 6.5 percent in April, within the central bank’s target range of 5-7 percent, and against the backdrop of a weakening of the tenge’s exchange rate and a decline in inflation expectations 12-months ahead to 6.0 percent.
      Akishev said the latest estimates show that inflation will remain within the target corridor this year and in 2019 and reach the medium-term inflation target of 4.0 percent by end-2020.
      The main factor that will limit the decrease in inflation is the expected rise in world food prices, imported inflation from trading partners and growth in consumer and investment demand.
      The normalization of U.S. monetary policy is also posing a risk of an outflow of capital from emerging markets, Akishev added.
      The tenge was hit in early April by a fall in Russia’s ruble on new U.S. sanctions but has stabilized since then. Russia is Kazakhstan’s largest trading partner.
      The tenge was trading at 330.9 to the dollar today, up 0.6 percent this year.
      The central bank said its international reserves amounted to US$90.4 billion, up 1.4 percent.

        www.CentralBankNews.info

       
     
   

CORN: Technical Analysis – Trade wars increase market risks

By IFCMarkets

Trade wars increase market risks

China sells corn from its state reserves. Will Corn prices continue to fall?

According to the Chinese National Grain Trade Center, 1.33 million tonnes of corn from state reserves were sold at the auction on Friday at the price of 1422 yuan ($ 221.7) per ton. This is about a third of the proposed volume. Last week, corn fell by 2.5%, which was the largest weekly price decrease over the past 10 months. An important reason was the risk of the resumption of global trade wars. The US is going to raise duties on imports of steel and aluminum from Mexico, the European Union and Canada. Meanwhile, Mexico is the main buyer of US corn and may, in response, increase duties on its imports from the US. This increases the risk of demand reduction.

Corn

On the daily timeframe, Corn: D1 breached down the support line of the uptrend. The further price decrease is possible in case of a reduction in purchases of US corn by Mexico and in case of the further sales of Chinese state reserves.

  • The Parabolic indicator gives a bearish signal.
  • The Bollinger bands have narrowed, which indicates low volatility. They are titled downward.
  • The RSI indicator is below 50. It has formed a negative divergence.
  • The MACD indicator gives a bearish signal.

The bearish momentum may develop in case Corn falls below its last fractal low at 395. This level may serve as an entry point. The initial stop loss may be placed above the last fractal high, the 2-year high, the upper Bollinger band and the Parabolic signal at 415. After opening the pending order, we shall move the stop to the next fractal high following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the potential profit/loss to the breakeven point. More risk-averse traders may switch to the 4-hour chart after the trade and place there a stop loss moving it in the direction of the trade. If the price meets the stop level at 415 without reaching the order at 395, we recommend to close the position: the market sustains internal changes that were not taken into account.

Summary of technical analysis

PositionSell
Sell stopBelow 395
Stop lossAbove 415

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets

Dollar strengthening accelerates after Fed minutes

By IFCMarkets

US dollar net short bets fell markedly to $5.44 billion from $7.95 billion against the major currencies during the previous week, according to the report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) covering data up to May 29 released on Friday June 1. The dollar strengthening accelerated as Fed minutes showed support for June rate hike though policy makers favored a gradual pace of interest rate increases.

 

CFTC Sentiment vs Exchange Rate

May 29 2018BiasEx RateTrendPosition $ mlnWeekly Change
CADbearishpositive-1206839
AUDbearishpositive-1743-145
EURbullishpositive13422-2733
GBPbullishpositive785307
CHFbearishpositive-5480-780
JPYbearishnegative-343-760
Total5435

 

commitment of traders net long short
commitment of traders weekly change
market sentiment ratio long short positions

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets

Note:
This overview has an informative and tutorial character and is published for free. All the data, included in the overview, are received from public sources, recognized as more or less reliable. Moreover, there is no guarantee that the indicated information is full and precise. Overviews are not updated. The whole information in each overview, including opinion, indicators, charts and anything else, is provided only for familiarization purposes and is not financial advice or а recommendation. The whole text and its any part, as well as the charts cannot be considered as an offer to make a deal with any asset. IFC Markets and its employees under any circumstances are not liable for any action taken by someone else during or after reading the overview.

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 04.06.2018 (GOLD, USDCHF)

Article By RoboForex.com

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, XAUUSD is being corrected and has already reached the retracement of 23.6%. The next targets of this correction may be the retracements of 38.2% and 50.0% at 1313.80 and 1323.70 respectively. The support level is the low at 1282.09.

GOLD1
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

In the H1 chart, the pair has been corrected by 61.8% and right now is forming a new ascending impulse to reach the high at 1307.77. The support level is the retracement of 76.0%.

GOLD2
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

 

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

As we can see in the H4 chart, USDCHF is still being corrected to the downside; it has already reached the retracement of 38.2% and right now is trading towards the retracements of 50.0% and 61.8% at 0.9796 and 0.9735 respectively. At the same time, one can see the convergence is being formed, which indicates that the correction may be over soon.

USDCHF1
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

In the H1 chart, the pair is moving downwards to reach the retracement of 50.0% at 0.9796.

USDCHF2
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.