InvestMacro

Analytics by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.17297
• Open: 1.16417
• % chg. over the last day: -0.72
• Day’s range: 1.16424 – 1.16572
• 52 wk range: 1.0571 – 1.2557

Yesterday, there were aggressive sales on the EUR/USD currency pair. The ECB left the key interest rate unchanged at 0.00%, which hit the euro. Quotes fell by more than 80 points. At the moment, the technical pattern is ambiguous. The key support and resistance levels are 1.16350 and 1.16650, respectively. We recommend opening positions from these marks.

• – Data on the US GDP at 14:45 (GMT+3:00).

Indicators point to the power of sellers: the price has fixed below 50 MA and 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is located in the negative zone, but above the signal line, which gives a weak signal to sell EUR/USD.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line crossed the %D line. There are no accurate signals.

• Support levels: 1.16350, 1.16000, 1.15700
• Resistance levels: 1.16650, 1.17000, 1.17400

If the price fixes below 1.16350, we recommend considering sales of EUR/USD. The movement is tending to 1.16000-1.15700.

Alternative option. If the price fixes above the resistance level of 1.16650, the EUR/USD quotes are expected to rise. The movement is tending potentially to 1.17000-1.17200.

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.31887
• Open: 1.31075
• % chg. over the last day: -0.61
• Day’s range: 1.31013 – 1.31102
• 52 wk range: 1.2361 – 1.4345

Yesterday, the bearish sentiment was observed on the GBP/USD currency pair. The decrease in quotes was more than 80 points. At the moment, the technical pattern is ambiguous. Investors expect additional drivers. Local support and resistance levels are 1.30900 and 1.31300, respectively. The positions should be opened from these marks. The trading instrument has the potential for further reduce.

Today, the publication of important news from the UK is not expected.

Indicators do not send accurate signals: the price is testing 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, but above the signal line, which gives a weak signal to sell GBP/USD.

Stochastic Oscillator is located in the neutral zone, the %K line crossed the %D line. There are no accurate signals.

• Support levels: 1.30900, 1.30500, 1.30100
• Resistance levels: 1.31300, 1.31700, 1.32100

If the price fixes above 1.31300, the GBP/USD currency pair is expected to correct. The movement is tending to 1.31700-1.31900.

Alternative option. If the price fixes below the support of 1.30900, we recommend considering sales of GBP/USD. The movement is tending to 1.30500-1.30300.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.30451
• Open: 1.30708
• % chg. over the last day: +0.18
• Day’s range: 1.30706 – 1.30784
• 52 wk range: 1.2059 – 1.3795

Yesterday, the bullish sentiment was observed on the USD/CAD currency pair. The growth of quotes was restrained due to a weak report on core durable goods orders in the US. The indicator counted to 0.4% in June, while investors expected a value of 0.5%. At the moment, the trading instrument is moving in the range of 1.30450-1.30800. Positions should be opened from the key support and resistance levels.

The news feed on the economy of Canada is calm.

Indicators point to the power of sellers: the price has fixed below 50 MA and 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is near the 0 mark. There are no signals.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is crossing the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

• Support levels: 1.30450, 1.30000
• Resistance levels: 1.30800, 1.31200, 1.31600

If the price fixes below the support level of 1.30450, we recommend considering sales of USD/CAD. The movement is tending to 1.30000-1.29800.

If the price fixes above the 1.30800 mark, it is necessary to look for entry points to the market to open long positions. The target movement level is 1.31200-1.31400.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 110.974
• Open: 111.219
• % chg. over the last day: +0.17
• Day`s range: 110.940 – 110.054
• 52 wk range: 104.56 – 114.74

Yesterday, there was the bullish sentiment on the USD/JPY currency pair. At the moment, the technical pattern is ambiguous. Investors expect additional drivers. The key support and resistance are 110.900 and 111.200, respectively. The positions should be opened from these marks.

The news feed on the economy of Japan is calm.

Indicators do not send accurate signals: the price is testing 50 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, but below the signal line, which gives a weak signal to buy USD/JPY.

Stochastic Oscillator is located in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which indicates the growth of quotes.

• Support levels: 110.900, 110.600
• Resistance levels: 111.200, 111.600, 112.000

If the price fixes below the already “mirror” support of 110.900, the USD/JPY currency pair is expected to decline. The movement is tending to 110.600-110.300.

Alternative option. If the price fixes above 111.200, it is necessary to consider purchases of USD/JPY. The movement is tending to 111.600-111.800.

Analytics by JustForex

by JustForex

The US currency strengthened against the basket of major currencies after negotiations between President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker and the US President Donald Trump. As it became known, the US and the European Union agreed to abolish trade duties for each other in order to avoid a trade war. The US dollar index (#DX) started rising and closed in the positive zone (+0.47%).

Nevertheless, the growth of the US dollar was restrained due to a weak report on core durable goods orders. The indicator counted to 0.4% in June, while investors expected a value of 0.5%. The euro was under pressure after it became known that the interest rate remained unchanged at the level of 0.00%. The ECB President Mario Draghi said that the Eurozone economy needs financial stimulation. The ECB representatives intend to leave the interest rate unchanged until the end of the summer of 2019.

The “black gold” prices are consolidating. At the moment, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing a mark of $69.45 per barrel.

Market Indicators

Yesterday, there was a variety of trends in the US stock market: #SPY (-0.24%), #DIA (+0.43%), #QQQ (-1.52%).

At the moment, the 10-year US government bonds yield is at the level of 2.96-2.97%.

– Data on the US GDP at 14:45 (GMT+3:00).

by JustForex

By Veselin Petkov, Alpari

By Gong Yingchun – China.org.cn, July 26, 2018

Global economic and policy strategist, Dan Steinbock, expressed his concerns over the escalating U.S.-China trade tensions in a written interview with China.org.cn, saying that trade tariffs will harm the U.S. economy more than China.

In mid-June, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 25-percent tariff on US$50 billion of goods imported from China, and China responded with the equivalent duties on the same value of U.S. exports to China.

Steinbock, who has served as research director at the India, China and America Institute (US) and guest fellow at Shanghai Institutes of International Studies (China), argues that the current tariffs on the US$50 billion of goods that the U.S. and China have mutually imposed will not dramatically affect the economy of either country in the short-term.

“In the U.S., the first-year impact could penalize 0.1 to 0.2 percent of U.S. GDP,” Steinbock said.

However, over the long-term, he said that these tariffs will harm the U.S. economy more than that of China.

In 2017, U.S. exports of goods to China hit US$130 billion, and China’s exports of goods to the U.S. was approximately US$506 billion, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

Therefore, the US$50 billion of goods targeted by the tariffs is approximately 38 percent of U.S. exports to China last year, but only 10 percent of Chinese exports to the U.S, according to Steinbock.

From this perspective, he contends that the U.S. is therefore “more exposed.” “These tariffs will harm America twice as much as China. If the tariff war escalates, the damage will increase proportionally,” he said.

Trump announced last Friday that he was ready to impose tariffs on all US$500 billion of imported goods from China. “A tenfold tariff escalation could multiply the adverse impact on the U.S. economy tenfold, which, in turn, could unsettle key stock indexes on Wall Street, disrupt the strengthening U.S. dollar, and undermine the Federal Reserve’s tightening policies, as the Fed itself has indicated,” Steinbock said.

He stated that the Trump administration’s new trade policy is “based on dated ideas and flawed economics,” adding that the net effect of the “America First” doctrine in the international economy will have negative consequences for China, the U.S., EU, Mexico and Canada.

“It is even worse for America, especially when the U.S. sovereign debt exceeds US$21 trillion (106 percent of U.S. GDP), budget deficits are increasing, and fiscal expansion requires even more debt. Such economic policies rely on economic support by multilateral trading partners that Trump’s tariff wars are alienating,”Steinbock explained.

“Of course, Trump can subsidize U.S. farmers, for instance. But to do so he needs even more debt and what about other industries in the U.S. that also rely on exports to China. There are no winners in trade wars,” he said.

He pointed out that damage control is becoming more challenging as Trump’s trade actions are also targeting Mexico, Canada, EU, possibly even Japan and South Korea.

“The first effect is increasing economic uncertainty,” he said.

He also emphasized China’s vital role in global economic growth.

“While global governance mechanisms remain U.S.-centered, China is actually now driving the global economy along with Brazil, Russia, and India,” he said, adding that unilateral U.S. trade actions against these countries are undermining growth prospects.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned in its latest World Economic Outlook that rising trade tensions could negatively impact the prospects for global growth.

“The IMF revised down the outlook for Europe, Japan and the U.K., as well as for India and Brazil. If Trump’s stance prevails, that’s just the beginning, over time the impact will be global and negative,” he said.

Responding to the current increasing trade tensions, China has reiterated that the country will stick to its reform and opening-up policy and work together with countries across the world to defend the principles of free trade and the multilateral trading system.

“China has sought to take into account both Chinese and global interests. That’s the right approach,” Steinbock said.

Follow China.org.cn on Twitter and Facebook to join the conversation.
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Provided by Dr. Steinbock at DifferenceGroup.net

By Veselin Petkov, Alpari

Article By RoboForex.com

USD/CHF

On H4, the USD/CHF is trading within a consolidation range between 3/8 and 5/8. Here we can expect the price to fall to the support at 3/8.

On H1, the charts show the same Murrey levels as on H4, and the likelihood of the price going down to 3/8 is confirmed here.

In case VoltyChannel lower line is broken out on M15, the price will be likely to go further down.

Gold

Once 3/8 gets broken out on H4, the price may rise further to reach the resistance at 5/8.

On H1, the price may fall to the support at 0/8. So long as the price is below 3/8 level, this forecast is the primary one.

On M15, the breakout of the lower line of VoltyChannel will increase the possibility of further price drop.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD

EUR/USD has broken out 1.1717 upwards and is now under pressure. Practically, in the market there still is a possibility of a correction to 1.1800.Today, we expect a new consolidation range with the growth to 1.757 and then with the fall to 1.1717. After that, it may rise 1.1800. Here there will be no more potential for correction. Then there is a downtrend to 1.1400.

GBPUSD

GBP/USD has reached its upmove target.Today, it may fall to 1.3075 and then rise to 1.3140. After this the new consolidation range may be expected. In case of a breakout downwards the price may reach 1.28888. In case a breakout upwards occurs, the price is likely to go up to 1.3230.

USDCHF

USD/CHF continues to strengthen. In case a breakout downwards occurs at 0.9900, the price is likely to go down to 0.9870. If the price goes up, the growth to 0.9990 may follow.

USDJPY

USD/JPY has broken out 110.95 downwards and continues to go down with the target at 110.30. After reaching this target we can expect the correction towards 111.73.

AUDUSD

AUD/USD has broken out 0.7430 upwards. We can expect it to grow up to 0.7472. Here there will be no more potential for growth. Later, it may fall to 0.7285. This is a strategic target.

USDRUB

USD/RUB price is falling to 62.49. After that, it may rise to 63.10, but later it is likely to fall to 61.61. With further breakout, the price may head lower to 60.16. This is a local target.

GOLD

The gold has broken out the consolidation range upwards. We can expect it to grow up to 1239. After that, it may fall to 1225. Once the this level is broken out top down, 1.206 may be reached.

BRENT

Brent oil has broken out 74 upwards. We can expect it to grow up to 75, but later it is likely to fall to 73. Practically, for now, the price is within the consolidation range at minimums. A further drop down to 71 cannot be excluded. All the downward waves are an alternative scenario involving correction. The main scenario is that there is going to be an uptrend towards 82.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Analytics by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.16805
• Open: 1.17297
• % chg. over the last day: +0.44
• Day’s range: 1.17206 – 1.17342
• 52 wk range: 1.0571 – 1.2557

Yesterday, the bullish sentiment was observed on the EUR/USD currency pair after the publication of a weak report on new home sales in the US. In June, sales fell to 631K, while experts expected 669K. At the moment, the technical pattern is ambiguous. The key support and resistance levels are: 1.17150 and 1.17450, respectively. We recommend opening positions from these marks. The further growth of the trading instrument is not excluded.

• – A decision on the interest rate by ECB at 14:45 (GMT+3:00);
• – Core durable goods orders in the US at 15:30 (GMT+3:00).

Indicators point to thw power of buyers: the price has fixed above 50 MA and 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is located in the positive zone, but below the signal line, which gives a weak signal to buy EUR/USD.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line has crossed the %D line. There are no accurate signals.

• Support levels: 1.17150, 1.16850, 1.16500
• Resistance levels: 1.17450, 1.17800

If the price fixes below 1.17150, we recommend considering sales of EUR/USD. The movement is tending to 1.16850-1.16500.

Alternative option. If the price fixes above the resistance level of 1.17450, the EUR/USD quotes are expected to grow. The movement is tending to 1.17800-1.18000.

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.31421
• Open: 1.31887
• % chg. over the last day: +0.41
• Day’s range: 1.31847 – 1.31981
• 52 wk range: 1.2361 – 1.4345

Yesterday, the bullish sentiment was observed on the GBP/USD currency pair. At the moment, the technical pattern is ambiguous. Investors expect additional drivers. The key support and resistance levels are: 1.31700 and 1.32200, respectively. The positions must be opened from these marks. In the near future, a technical correction is not ruled out.

The news feed on the UK economy is calm.

Indicators point to the power of buyers: the price has fixed above 50 MA and 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, but below the signal line, which gives a weak signal to buy GBP/USD.

Stochastic Oscillator is located in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which also sends a signal to sell GBP/USD.

• Support levels: 1.31700, 1.31200, 1.30700
• Resistance levels: 1.32200, 1.32600, 1.33000

If the price fixes above 1.32200, further growth of GBP/USD is expected. The movement is tending to 1.32600-1.32800.

Alternative option. If the price fixes below support 1.31700, the correction of the GBP/USD quotes is expected. The movement is tending to 1.31200-1.31000.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.31542
• Open: 1.30451
• % chg. over the last day: -0.87
• Day’s range: 1.30352 – 1.30454
• 52 wk range: 1.2059 – 1.3795

Yesterday, aggressive sales were observed on the USD/CAD currency pair. The decrease in quotations was almost 100 points. At the moment, the trading instrument is in a sideways trend. Local support and resistance levels are: 1.30250 and 1.30550, respectively. The positions must be opened from these marks. The trading instrument is tending to reduce.

Publication of important news from Canada is not expected.

Indicators point to the power of sellers: the price has fixed below 50 MA and 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, but above the signal line, which gives a weak signal to sell USD/CAD.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which gives a signal to sell USD/CAD.

• Support levels: 1.30250, 1.29800
• Resistance levels: 1.30550, 1.31000, 1.31400

If the price fixes below the support level of 1.30250, further reduction of the currency pair is expected. The movement is tending to 1.29800-1.29600.

If the price fixes above 1.30550, one should look for entry points to the market to open long positions. The target movement level is 1.31000-1.31200.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 111.141
• Open: 110.974
• % chg. over the last day: -0.31
• Day`s range: 110.651 – 110.732
• 52 wk range: 104.56 – 114.74

During yesterday’s trading the bearish sentiment prevailed on the USD/JPY currency pair. The quotes fell by more than 70 points. At the moment, the key levels of support and resistance are: 110.600 and 110.900, respectively. The positions must be opened from these marks. We recommend you to pay attention to the yield of US 10-year government bonds.

The news feed on Japan’s economy is calm.

Indicators point to the power sellers: the price has fixed below 50 MA and 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, but above the signal line, which gives a weak signal to sell USD/JPY.

Stochastic Oscillator is located in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which indicates the growth of quotations.

• Support levels: 110.600, 110.300
• Resistance levels: 110.900, 111.300, 111.800

If the price fixes below the 110.600 level, the USD/JPY currency pair is expected to decline. The movement is tending to 110.300-110.000.

Alternative option. If the price fixes above the 110.900 mark, you should consider buying USD/JPY. The movement is tending to 111.300-111.500.

Analytics by JustForex

By JustForex

The US dollar weakened yesterday against the basket of major currencies after the release of a report on new home sales in the US. In June, sales fell to 631K, while experts expected 669K. The US dollar index (#DX) closed in the negative zone (-0.43%). Also yesterday, negotiations between President of the European Commission Junker and US President Trump were held, at which officials had to discuss trade duties. Investors expect the results of negotiations.

Yesterday, the IFO business climate index of Germany was also published, which counted to 101.7 and was above the forecasted value of 101.6. Today, participants in financial markets took a wait-and-see attitude before the ECB decision on the interest rate. It is expected that the interest rate will remain unchanged.

The “black gold” prices are rising amid a reduction in crude oil inventories. At the moment, futures for WTI crude oil are testing a mark of $69.45 per barrel.

Market Indicators

Yesterday, the bullish sentiment was observed in the US stock market: #SPY (+0.85%), #DIA (+0.72%), #QQQ (+1.40%).

At the moment, the yield of 10-year US government bonds is at the level of 2.95-2.96%.

– A decision on the interest rate by ECB at 14:45 (GMT+3:00);

– Core durable goods orders in the US at 15:30 (GMT+3:00).

By JustForex

By Veselin Petkov, Alpari