InvestMacro

August 11, 2018 – By CountingPips.com – Get our weekly COT Reports by Email

US Dollar aggregate speculator positions rose to $22.02 billion this week

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators continued to boost their bets in favor of the US dollar this week while sharply cutting back on euro and British pound bets.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar aggregate net position totaling $22.02 billion as of Tuesday August 7th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly rise of $1.96 billion from the $20.06 billion total position that was registered the previous week, according to the Reuters calculation (totals of the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc).

The aggregate speculative position has now risen for seven out of the past eight weeks to the highest level since January 17th of 2107 when the aggregate measure totaled +$24.44 billion.

US Dollar Index Speculator Positions rise for 16th Straight Week

The latest data also showed that currency speculators continued to raise their bets in favor of the US Dollar Index futures for a sixteenth consecutive week.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 30,102 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday August 7th. This was a weekly gain of 1,646 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,456 net contracts.

The bullish improvement in the US Dollar Index positions dates back to April 24th (sixteen straight weeks) and the overall net standing is now at the best level since May 23rd of 2017 when bullish bets equaled 31,324 contracts.

Individual Currency Contracts Data this week

We saw two substantial changes (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the individual currency contract levels for the speculators category this week.

• Euro positions dropped this week by over -10,000 bets and fell for a second straight week. The overall net position is now at the lowest level since May 2nd 2017 when net positions totaled -1,653 contracts. The euro position has seen a rather swift decline after reaching a record high bullish position recently on April 17th (+151,476 contracts).
• British pound sterling positions declined by over -11,000 bets this week and have now dropped for three straight weeks (as well as seven out of the past eight weeks). The bearish net standing is at the highest bearish level since May 2nd of 2017 when the position totaled -81,364 contracts.

Overall, the non-commercial speculators bet in favor of the US Dollar Index (1,646 weekly change in contracts), Japanese yen (5,650 contracts), Canadian dollar (6,671 contracts) and the Mexican peso (6,745 contracts) this week.

The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week were the euro (-12,260 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (-11,466 contracts), Swiss franc (-1,686 contracts),  Australian dollar (-3,064 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (-847 contracts).

Table of Weekly Commercial Traders and Speculators Levels & Changes:

 

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

 

Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

British Pound Sterling:

Japanese Yen:

Swiss Franc:

Canadian Dollar:

Australian Dollar:

New Zealand Dollar:

Mexican Peso:

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

Article by CountingPips.com

Article By RoboForex.com

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is trading at 0.7301; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, which means that it may continue falling. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 0.7335 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.7230. Another signal to confirm further descending movement is the price’s rebounding from the resistance level. However, the scenario that Implies further decline may be cancelled if the price breaks the upside border of the cloud and fixes above 0.7415. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.7505.

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

NZDUSD is trading at 0.6579; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, which means that it may continue falling. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 0.6640 and then continue moving downwards to reach 0.6490. Another signal to confirm further descending movement is the price’s rebounding from the channel’s upside border. However, the scenario that implies further decline may be cancelled if the price breaks the upside border of the cloud and fixes above 0.6735. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.6850.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

USDCAD is trading at 1.3096; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, which means that it may continue growing. The markets could indicate that the price may test the upside border of the cloud at 1.3065 and then continue moving upwards to reach 1.3205. However, the scenario that implies further growth may be cancelled if the price breaks the downside border of the cloud and fixes below 1.2995. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1.2905.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is still moving downwards. Today, the price may reach 1.1515 and then form another consolidation range between 1.1560 and 1.1480. If later the pair breaks this range to the downside, the instrument may continue falling inside the downtrend with the target at 1.1414.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is also moving downwards and forming a downside continuation pattern around 1.2870. The instrument is expected to break the pattern to the downside and reach the target at 1.2727.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF is trading upwards to break 0.9980. Later, the market may continue growing with the short-term target at 1.0066.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY is moving downwards. Possibly, the pair may reach 110.63 and then grow towards 110.94. After that, the instrument may resume falling inside the downtrend with the first target at 110.30.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is also moving downwards. Possibly, today the pair may reach 0.7306 and then start another correction towards 0.7370. Later, the market may resume falling inside the downtrend with the target at 0.7288.

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

After a gap that took place during the trading session opening, USDRUB has completed another ascending wave. Today, the price may form the fifth descending structure to reach 50.50. The instrument is expected to form a new consolidation range with a reversal pattern near the current highs. The first target is at 63.40.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is moving downwards. Possibly, today the pair may break 1209.00. The main downside target is at 1200.00.

BRENT

Brent is still consolidating close to the downside border of the Triangle pattern. If later the instrument breaks this range to the downside, the price may fall to reach 70.90; if to the upside – resume trading upwards with the target at 73.90.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Analytics by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.16098
• Open: 1.15260
• % chg. over the last day: -0.75
• Day’s range: 1.14564 – 1.14719
• 52 wk range: 1.0571 – 1.2557

There are aggressive sales on the EUR/USD currency pair. During yesterday’s and today’s trading sessions, quotes have decreased by more than 150 points. At the moment, the key support and resistance levels are 1.14400 and 1.15000, respectively. We recommend opening positions from these marks. In the near future, technical correction is not ruled out.

• – Core consumer price index in the US at 15:30 (GMT+3:00).

Indicators point to the power of sellers: the price has fixed below 50 MA and 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is located in the negative zone and below the signal line, which gives a strong signal to sell EUR/USD.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is crossing the %D line. There are no accurate signals.

• Support levels: 1.14400, 1.14000
• Resistance levels: 1.15000, 1.15500, 1.16000

If the price fixes above the round level of 1.15000, the EUR/USD quotes are expected to correct. The movement is tending to 1.15500-1.15700.

Alternative option. If the price fixes below the support level of 1.14400, it is necessary to consider sales of EUR/USD. The movement is tending to 1.14000-1.13800.

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.28790
• Open: 1.28240
• % chg. over the last day: -0.41
• Day’s range: 1.27727 – 1.27921
• 52 wk range: 1.2361 – 1.4345

The bearish sentiment prevails on the GBP/USD currency pair. During yesterday’s and today’s trading sessions, quotes have decreased by more than 100 points. Financial market participants expect statistics on the UK GDP. At the moment, the local support and resistance levels are 1.27400 and 1.28000, respectively. In the near future, technical correction is not ruled out.

• – Data on the UK GDP at 11:30 (GMT+3:00);
• – Manufacturing production in the UK at 11:30 (GMT+3:00).

Indicators point to the power of sellers: the price has fixed below 50 MA and 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone and below the signal line, which gives a strong signal to sell GBP/USD.

Stochastic Oscillator is located in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which also indicates the bearish sentiment.

• Support levels: 1.27400, 1.27000
• Resistance levels: 1.28000, 1.28700, 1.29400

If the price fixes below the level of 1.27400, the GBP/USD quotes are expected to fall. The movement is tending to 1.27000-1.26800.

Alternative option. If the price fixes above the round level of 1.28000, correction movement is expected. The movement is tending to 1.28500-1.28700.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.30481
• Open: 1.30494
• % chg. over the last day: +0.18
• Day’s range: 1.30432 – 1.30496
• 52 wk range: 1.2059 – 1.3795

There is the bullish sentiment on the USD/CAD currency pair. During yesterday’s and today’s trading sessions, quotes have risen by more than 80 points. At the moment, the key support and resistance levels are 1.30700 and 1.31000, respectively. The trading instrument has the potential for further growth.

At 15:30 (GMT+3:00) a report on the labor market will be published in Canada.

Indicators point to the power of buyers: the price has fixed above 50 MA and 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone and above the signal line, which signals to buy USD/CAD.

Stochastic Oscillator is located in the neutral zone, the %K line is crossing the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

• Support levels: 1.30700, 1.30400, 1.30000
• Resistance levels: 1.31000, 1.31500

If the price fixes above the key resistance of 1.31000, the USD/CAD quotes are expected to grow. The target movement level is 1.31500-1.31700.

Alternative option. If the price fixes below 1.30700, it is necessary to consider sales of USD/CAD. The movement is tending to 1.30400-1.30200.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 110.967
• Open: 111.005
• % chg. over the last day: +0.10
• Day`s range: 110.616 – 111.011
• 52 wk range: 104.56 – 114.74

There is a variety of trends on the USD/JPY currency pair. At the moment, the trading instrument has started declining. The key support and resistance levels are 110.600 and 111.000, respectively. The positions should be opened from these marks. We recommend paying attention to the dynamics of the US government bonds yield.

Today, positive data on Japan GDP have been published.

The price has fixed below 50 MA and 200 MA, which indicates the power of sellers.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone and below the signal line, which gives a strong signal to sell USD/JPY.

Stochastic Oscillator is located in the neutral zone, the %K line is crossing the %D line. There are no accurate signals.

• Support levels: 110.600, 110.200
• Resistance levels: 111.000, 111.400, 111.800

If the price fixes below the level of 110.600, it is necessary to look for entry points to the market to open short positions. The movement is tending to 110.200-110.000.

An alternative is the USD/JPY quotes growth to 111.400-111.600.

Analytics by JustForex

by JustForex

The US dollar rose against the basket of major currencies during yesterday’s trading. The US dollar index (#DX) updated the weekly high and closed in the positive zone (+0.60%). Yesterday, the producer price index was published in the US, which counted to 0.0% in July and was worse than the forecasted value of 0.2%. However, this did not prevent the dollar from strengthening. Trade relations between the United States and its partners are still in the focus of attention. Today, the US dollar rally has continued.

During the Asian trading session, data on Japan GDP have been published. So, GDP growth counted to 0.5% in the second quarter and was better than the forecasted value of 0.3%. Financial market participants expect data on the UK GDP. We also recommend paying attention to economic statistics from the US and Canada.

The “black gold” prices are consolidating. At the moment, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing a mark of $66.60 per barrel.

Market Indicators

Yesterday, the bearish sentiment was observed in the US stock market: #SPY (-0.14%), #DIA (-0.18%), #QQQ (-0.06%).

At the moment, the 10-year US government bonds yield is at the level of 2.89%-2.90%.

– Data on the UK GDP at 11:30 (GMT+3:00);
– Manufacturing production in the UK at 11:30 (GMT+3:00);
– Core consumer price index in the US at 15:30 (GMT+3:00);
– Report on the labor market in Canada at 15:30 (GMT+3:00).

by JustForex

By Gabriel Ojimadu, Alpari

Article By RoboForex.com

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is trading at 0.7433; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, which means that it may continue growing. The markets could indicate that the price may test the upside border of the cloud at 0.7415 and then resume moving upwards to reach 0.7505. However, the scenario that Implies further growth may be cancelled if the price breaks the downside border of the cloud and fixes below 0.7375. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 0.7335. After breaking the upside border of the Triangle pattern and fixing above 0.7460, the price may continue moving upwards.

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

NZDUSD is trading at 0.6656; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, which means that it may continue falling. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 0.6705 and then continue moving downwards to reach 0.6590. Another signal to confirm further descending movement is the price’s rebounding from the resistance level. However, the scenario that implies further decline may be cancelled if the price breaks the upside border of the cloud and fixes above 0.6785. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.6850.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

USDCAD is trading at 1.3006; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, which means that it may continue falling. The markets could indicate that the price may test the downside border of the cloud at 1.3015 and then continue moving downwards to reach 1.2900. Another signal to confirm further descending movement is the price’s rebounding from the resistance. However, the scenario that implies further decline may be cancelled if the price breaks the upside border of the cloud and fixes above 1.3080. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1.3185.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

By First Macro Capital

Paul Farrugia, BCom. Paul is the President & CEO of First Macro Capital. He helps his readers identify mining stocks that you can hold for the long-term. He provides a checklist to find winning gold and silver mining producer stocks, including battery metals.

Article By RoboForex.com

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

In the H4 chart, USDCHF is trading above the 5/8 level and may continue growing to reach the resistance at the 8/8 one.

As we can see in the H1 chart, the pair may break the 2/8 level and then continue trading downwards to reach the support at the 0/8 one.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

In the H4 chart, XAUUSD may test the support at the 5/8 level, rebound from it, and then resume growing towards the resistance at the 7/8 one.

As we can see in the H1 chart, the price is trading below the 3/8 level and may continue falling towards the support at the 0/8one.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

By Gabriel Ojimadu, Alpari