InvestMacro

By CountingPips.com

Here are this week’s links to the latest Commitment of Traders data changes that were released on Friday.

• Currency Speculators reduced US Dollar Index bets for 1st time in 20 weeks
• WTI Crude Oil Speculators added to their bullish net positions for 2nd week
• 10-Year Note Speculators rebooted their bearish net positions
• Bitcoin Speculators edged their bearish net positions lower
• Gold Speculators pushed their bets more bearish this week
• S&P500 Mini Speculators lifted their bullish bets for 2nd week
• Eurodollar Speculators increased their bearish net positions for 2nd week
• VIX Speculators pushed their bearish net positions higher for 2nd week
• Silver Speculators sharply raised their bearish net positions
• Copper Speculators pushed bets back into an overall bearish position

Currency Speculators reduced US Dollar Index bets for 1st time in 20 weeks

US Dollar Index net speculator positions fell this week

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large speculators cut back on their bets for the US Dollar Index futures markets this week for the first time in twenty weeks. See full article

WTI Crude Oil Speculators added to their bullish net positions for 2nd week

The non-commercial contracts of WTI crude futures totaled a net position of 565,730 contracts, according to data from this week. This was a lift of 15,417 contracts from the previous weekly total. See full article

Gold Speculators pushed their bets more bearish this week

The large speculator contracts of gold futures totaled a net position of -13,497 contracts. This was a weekly decline of -10,434 contracts from the previous week. See full article

10-Year Note Speculators rebooted their bearish net positions this week

The large speculator contracts of 10-year treasury note futures totaled a net position of -682,757 contracts. This was a weekly reduction of -152,937 contracts from the previous week. See full article

S&P500 Mini Speculators lifted their bullish bets for 2nd week

The large speculator contracts of S&P 500 futures totaled a net position of 3,373 contracts. This was a rise of 1,982 contracts from the reported data of the previous week. See full article

Silver Speculators sharply raised their bearish net positions this week

The non-commercial contracts of silver futures totaled a net position of -28,974 contracts, according to data from this week. This was a weekly fall of -12,376 contracts from the previous totals. See full article

Copper Speculators pushed bets back into an overall bearish position

The large speculator contracts of copper futures totaled a net position of -5,977 contracts. This was a weekly shortfall of -6,268 contracts from the data of the previous week. See full article

Article by CountingPips.com

The Commitment of Traders report data is published in raw form every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows the futures positions of market participants as of the previous Tuesday (data is reported 3 days behind).

To learn more about this data please visit the CFTC website at http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm

Article By RoboForex.com

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, BTCUSD has quickly formed the descending impulse to correct the previous uptrend by 76.0%. The next possible downside target is the low at 5890.00.

In the H1 chart, after finishing the descending impulse, the pair started a new rising correction, which has already reached the retracement of 23.6% and may continue trading towards the retracements of 38.2% and 50.0% at 6692.00 and 6829.00 respectively. The support level is the low at 6250.00.

ETHUSD, “Ethereum vs. US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the downtrend continues. After breaking the support level at 250.59, ETHUSD has reached the post-correctional extension area between the retracements of 138.2% and 161.8% at 223.70 and 206.95 respectively. At the same time, one can see the convergence being formed.

In the H1 chart, the pair is being corrected upwards. After reaching the retracement of 23.6%, the instrument may continue trading to the upside. The possible targets may be the retracements of 38.2% and 50.0% at 240.50 and 250.59 respectively. The support level is the low at 206.95.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD has almost finished the correction. Possibly, today the pair may grow to reach 1.1638 and then form a new descending structure towards 1.1597. After that, the instrument may resume growing to reach 1.1666 and then continue falling with the target at 1.1515.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is consolidating. Possibly, the pair may grow to reach 1.2980 and then start another decline towards 1.2866. Later, the market may trade to reach 1.2920. However, if the price breaks the range to the downside, the instrument may resume falling inside the downtrend with the target at 1.2600.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF is still falling; it has almost completed the Double Bottom pattern. According to the main scenario, the pair is expected to form a reversal pattern near the current lows. The target is at 0.9777.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY is forming the third descending wave; it has broken 110.75 downwards and may continue falling with the short-term target at 109.77. After that, the instrument may resume growing to return to 110.75 and then start a new decline to reach the target at 109.55.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is still consolidating around 0.7180. If later the instrument breaks this range to the upside, the price may resume growing towards 0.7256; if to the downside – continue falling with the target at 0.7130.

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB has reached the short-term upside target. Today, the price may be corrected towards 68.27 and then form another ascending structure to reach 69.62. Later, the market may start another descending movement with the target at 68.00.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is falling towards 1194.50. After that, the instrument may form a new ascending structure to reach 1200.00 and then resume falling with the short-term target at 1190.00.

BRENT

Brent is moving downwards. Possibly, today the pair may reach 73.50 and then grow towards 77.45, thus forming another consolidation range. If later the instrument breaks this range to the upside, the price may resume trading inside the uptrend with the short-term target at 80.50.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Analytics by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.16300
• Open: 1.16212
• % chg. over the last day: -0.08
• Day’s range: 1.16137 – 1.16491
• 52 wk range: 1.0571 – 1.2557

The EUR/USD currency pair is consolidating. A unidirectional trend is not observed. The key range is 1.16100-1.16500. Financial market participants expect a report on the labor market in the United States. Preliminary data from ADP turned out to be rather weak. We recommend paying attention to the difference between the actual and forecasted values. Positions should be opened from the key levels.

• – GDP data in Eurozone at 12:00 (GMT+3:00);
• – Statistics on the US labor market at 15:30 (GMT+3:00).

Indicators do not send accurate signals: the price has crossed 50 MA and 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is near 0 mark.

Stochastic Oscillator is located near the overbought zone, the %K line has crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

• Support levels: 1.16100, 1.15700, 1.15350
• Resistance levels: 1.16500, 1.16900, 1.17150

If the price fixes below the local support of 1.16100, we recommend looking for entry points to the market to open short positions. The movement is tending to 1.15500-1.15250.

Alternative option. If the price fixes above 1.16500, the EUR/USD quotes are expected to rise. The movement is tending to 1.17000-1.17250.

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.29018
• Open: 1.29254
• % chg. over the last day: +0.16
• Day’s range: 1.29135 – 1.29479
• 52 wk range: 1.2361 – 1.4345

The GBP/USD currency pair continues to consolidate. Statistics on the US labor market is in the focus of attention. At the moment, the local support and resistance levels are 1.29100 and 1.29500, respectively. We recommend opening positions from these marks. Investors expect new information regarding Brexit negotiations.

The publication of important economic reports from the UK is not planned.

Indicators point to the power of buyers: the price has fixed above 50 MA and 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone and continues to rise, which signals the bullish sentiment.

Stochastic Oscillator is located in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which also signals to buy GBP/USD.

• Support levels: 1.29100, 1.28700, 1.28250
• Resistance levels: 1.29500, 1.29850, 1.30200

If the price fixes above 1.29500, further growth of the GBP/USD quotes is expected. The movement is tending to 1.30000-1.30200.

Alternative option. If the price fixes below the local support of 1.29100, we recommend considering sales of GBP/USD. The movement is tending to 1.28500-1.28250.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.31760
• Open: 1.31369
• % chg. over the last day: -0.15
• Day’s range: 1.31130 – 1.31660
• 52 wk range: 1.2059 – 1.3795

Yesterday, the USD/CAD quotes moved away from local highs. At the moment, the trading instrument is consolidating. Local support and resistance levels are 1.31150 and 1.31600, respectively. Investors expect statistics on the labor market in the US and Canada. Today, trading activity and volatility can significantly increase on the USD/CAD currency pair. We recommend opening positions from the key levels.

• – A report on the labor market at 15:30 (GMT+3:00);
• – The index of economic activity from Ivey at 17:00 (GMT+3:00).

Indicators do not send accurate signals: the price has fixed between 50 MA and 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone and below the signal line, which indicates the bearish sentiment.

Stochastic Oscillator is located in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which signals to buy USD/CAD.

• Support levels: 1.31150, 1.30600, 1.30250
• Resistance levels: 1.31600, 1.32000, 1.32500

If the price fixes below the local support of 1.31150, it is necessary to look for entry points to the market to open short positions. The movement is tending to 1.30600-1.30250.

Alternative option. If the price fixes above 1.31600, the USD/CAD quotes are expected to rise. The target level for profit-taking is 1.32000-1.32500.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 111.528
• Open: 110.740
• % chg. over the last day: -0.93
• Day’s range: 110.380 – 110.772
• 52 wk range: 104.56 – 114.74

The bearish sentiment prevails on the USD/JPY currency pair. During yesterday’s trading, the drop in quotes exceeded 100 points. Investors are still concerned about the trade conflict between the US and China, which supports the demand for safe assets. At the moment, the USD/JPY currency pair is consolidating in the range of 110.500-110.750. The positions should be opened from these marks. We recommend paying attention to the news feed on the US economy.

The publication of important statistics from Japan is not planned.

The price has fixed below 50 MA and 200 MA, which indicates the power of sellers.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, but above the signal line, which gives a weak signal to sell USD/JPY.

Stochastic Oscillator is located in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which indicates the USD/JPY quotes growth.

• Support levels: 110.500, 110.000
• Resistance levels: 110.750, 111.000, 111.200

If the price fixes below the support level of 110.500, the USD/JPY quotes are expected to fall further. The movement is tending to 110.000-109.750.

Alternative option. If the price fixes above the level of 110.750, it is necessary to consider purchases of USD/JPY. The movement is tending to 111.000-111.250.

Analytics by JustForex

by JustForex

Yesterday, trading on currency majors was quite active. At the same time, a unidirectional trend was not observed. The dollar index (#DX) closed the trading session with a slight decrease (-0.14%). Financial market participants are still concerned about the trade conflict between the US and China, which supports the demand for safe assets. At the moment, the main currency pairs are consolidating. We expect important economic reports.

Today, at 15:30 (GMT+3:00), the US will publish labor statistics for August. The preliminary report from ADP was rather weak. At the same time, the index of economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector of the country increased from 55.7 to 58.5. Experts expect a fairly optimistic report on the labor market. We recommend paying attention to the difference between the actual and forecasted values. It should be noted that this statistics may affect the Fed views on the further monetary policy tightening. At the moment, more than 95% of financial market participants expect that the central bank of the United States will increase the range of the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.00%-2.25% at the meeting on September 26.

The “black gold” prices are moderately rising. At the moment, futures for the WTI crude oil have approached a mark of $68.00 per barrel.

Market Indicators

Yesterday, the major US stock indices showed mixed dynamics: #SPY (-0.30%), #DIA (+0.14%), #QQQ (-0.89%).

At the moment, the 10-year US government bonds yield is at the level of 2.88-2.89%.

– A report on the US labor market at 15:30 (GMT+3:00);
– Statistics on the labor market in Canada at 15:30 (GMT+3:00);
– The index of economic activity in Canada from Ivey at 17:00 (GMT+3:00).

by JustForex

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

I have focused my attention on the recent price rotation in the Crude Oil market.  I believe the recent downside rotation in price, while technically still in a bullish trend, is an excellent opportunity for traders to identify entry positions for a potential price rally to levels near of above $70~71 ppb.

My proprietary price modeling systems and price cycle systems are clearly illustrating that Oil prices should find support, bottom and rotate higher within the next 5~7+ days.  I rely on these proprietary indicators and modeling systems to help understand when opportunities exist in the markets.  When I can determine that price is moving counter to a primary trend and creating what I call a “price anomaly”, where enhanced opportunity exists for a profitable outcome, I attempt to determine if this trigger warrants alerting our followers.  In this case, I believe the opportunity for upside price action following this price rotation is exceptional.

This first chart shows our proprietary price cycle modeling system at work and clearly shows the key Fibonacci support levels that I believe will act as a floor for the price of Oil.  I believe a bottom will form near $67 ppb and a new price rally will result in prices moving quickly back above $70 ppb.

This second chart shows the XLE price cycles on a Daily basis and I want to highlight the potential for a price move from near $73 to well above $76 (or higher) if our analysis is correct.  This reflects a +4~8% price move that I believe could happen within the next 5~10+ days.

The research here shows a long entry trade over the next 2~3 trading days is ideal and that this move will likely end before September 21 (if the market does not change its current cycle patterns).  Overall, this could be an opportunity for skilled traders and investors.

Often, followers and subscribers find my research of finding and alerting them to these types of opportunities.  Most of the time, these types of triggers are ones that members would have missed or ignored.  These proprietary price modeling tools provide us with a strong advantage over other traders. If you want to learn what it is like to have forward-looking prediction systems backing you up every day with Daily video analysis, detailed global market research, clear trading triggers/signals and more, then join me at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how I can help you.

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

By Gabriel Ojimadu, Alpari

By Amie Parnaby

It is a truth universally acknowledged in the trading world that for someone to come out on top, someone else has to lose. It’s a simple fact of maths, but one that few of us wish to dwell on.

In the established markets of Stocks, Forex and Index trading there are strict and reasonably fair rules, to which everyone (should) adhere. Everyone has access to the same data and winners are determined by their best extrapolation of that data.

However, cryptocurrency is still an infant in comparison to these old and established markets, and strict discipline and standards have not yet caught up with the increasing popularity. Players and markets don’t play by the rules of the old order, and so far regulation hasn’t caught up with them, yet.

Three major players will mess with your analysis and can seriously affect your cryptocurrency investment:

Whales

Essentially, those with so much investment in the crypto-pool that any significant movement makes big waves in the markets.

Most people have never actually had an encounter with a whale, but that doesn’t stop people labelling them the cause of all severe upheaval in the markets.

Unfortunately, given the comparatively small pool that crypto trading inhabits in the financial world, large-scale transactions can cause havoc with regular trading patterns which aren’t usually noticeable until after the fact.

Some tricks that whales have been known to use to manipulate the markets are:

Stop-loss hunting

Intentionally pushing down prices to trigger stop-loss orders. Whales have enough holdings to maintain a slew of sell orders which in turn drives prices down.

Once the price has dropped to a significant point (one where most traders will have sold to mitigate their losses), the whale then makes a complete 180-degree turn and buys up all of the sold coins at the lower price.

They then wait for the market to recover before selling the coins.

Spoofing

This is a common strategy used to manipulate the market. It means creating ‘spoof’ trades with every intention of cancelling them before they are filled.

By placing a substantially large buy order under a much smaller buy, order sends a bullish signal to the market and investors.

The ‘spoofer’ then cancels their entire order, but the bullish signal has already happened. As the price starts to rise the spoofing trader begins to sell his coins.

This also works when sending bearish signals and placing sell orders too.

Insider Traders

According to the SEC  insider trading is defined as “any securities transaction made when the person behind the trade is aware of non-public, material information.” So far the SEC hasn’t made any definitive decisions on any particular cryptocurrency, so it doesn’t apply in the cryptosphere. Most traditional markets with better-defined regulations have made insider trading illegal.

One incidence occurred when Coinbase tweeted that it was going to add Bitcoin Cash to the exchange, but before that information was made public, the price and trading volumes had a very suspicious surge.

Another incidence involved the South Korea Financial Supervisory Service, who knew that new cryptocurrency trading restrictions would come in to play but still made trades before the announcement. While it has been accepted that trading violations had occurred the response was unrepentant and stated that as there is no code of ethics and no specific regulation, then it’s very hard to issue a punishment.

Pump & Dump Executives (P&D)

Pump and Dump Execs are the top echelon of the P&D groups are market manipulators. Pumping takes a cheap asset, artificially inflates the price. Then, when the price begins to inflate rapidly, everyone who is a part of the Pump & Dump Group will sell at the inflated price, consequently creating a ‘dump’ as all of the group sells out at once.

P&D Execs find a coin that has a large social community, advertising ability a small order book and low trading volumes, between them these qualities make a coin easy to manipulate

The execs will start off by surreptitiously buying the asset while it’s cheap, being very careful to avoid creating bullish signals with their purchases. Once they have bought into the coin, they will spread the buy signal to their group members who will buy in and then start ‘shilling’ the coin it’s going to the moon because… (pick a reason that might sound feasible, the rumour of a coinbase add or partnership updates)

As the price rises with all of the additional input and increased trading volumes, the execs sell-out. Once they have got out, they spread the signal to their disciples who then also get out and the coin ‘dumps’. Quite often all the way down to its pre-pump level.

The slowest off the mark loses out.

There are a lot of these P&D groups

So it’s rigged?

Yes and no, at present with every government on the planet making different decisions on how to regulate cryptocurrency the rules are not yet in play so at present it’s every man for himself. The wheels of regulation turn slowly.

Technical analysis has always been the best way to look at crypto investing, but the traditional methods don’t work almost 50% of the time. One trick to making TA work for crypto investing is to learn the patterns inherent in the pump and dump schemes, spoofing and sudden turns when whales are stop-loss hunting. It is a learning process for everyone.

Eventually, the regulatory services will get their collective acts together, and practices such as insider trading will become less prevalent than they are now. Where trading violations happen, they can be punished.

The crypto market is the wild west and we young pioneers have to accept that law and order take time to take hold and establish themselves. All we can do is learn to spot the trends that accompany the nefarious trades.

About the Author:

Amie Parnaby is a professional writer and her experience spans a broad range of industries, from I.T. to training and optics to banking. Currently, Amie is the content writer for Terrexa – your entry point for crypto.

RoboForex, an international broker and a provider of online trading and investment services, announces the new investing products Crypto.TOP and Crypto.ALT indexes. RoboForex clients now have an opportunity to invest their funds into the cryptocurrency market by using advantages of index instruments.

A crypto index is a financial instrument, which is a basket of the most popular cryptocurrencies. Index instruments allow to diversify risks in some particular asset by distributing investments between other assets of the index. In addition to that, trading crypto indexes helps to lower entry threshold and decrease transaction costs in comparison with trading each instrument separately. Investments into Crypto.TOP and Crypto.ALT provide RoboForex clients with an opportunity to enter the cryptocurrency market without having to register any third-party wallets for keeping them. Apart from this, trading crypto indexes on RoboForex accounts will allow clients to avoid the need to risk their funds when dealing with unregulated cryptocurrency exchanges.

The Crypto.TOP index includes 3 of the most popular and actual instruments of the cryptocurrency market with the largest capitalization and highest liquidity. The Crypto.TOP index structure is a basket of virtual currencies in the following ratio: BTCUSD – 1, ETHUSD – 10, XRPUSD – 5000.

An alternative index called Crypto.ALT allows to expand your investment portfolio by adding 5 cryptocurrencies at once. Crypto.ALT contains some of the most significant assets of the digital market in the following ratio: ETHUSD – 0,5, BCHUSD – 0,3, XRPUSD – 400, LTCUSD – 2,5, DASHUSD – 0,75.

Denis Golomedov, CMO at RoboForex, is commenting this innovation: “Over the last 25 years, it has become possible to minimize costs for diversification in “traditional” asset classes thanks to ETFs. Our goal was to create something similar to ETFs for the cryptocurrency market, an available instrument for investments and diversification of investment portfolios of our clients. Moreover, crypto indexes help to solve a lot of problems relating to buying, storing, and providing safety of digital currencies.”

About RoboForex

RoboForex Ltd is a company, which delivers brokerage services on a world-wide basis. The company provides traders, who work on financial market, with access to its proprietary trading platforms. RoboForex Ltd has the brokerage license IFSC/60/271/TS/17 and is a member of The Financial Commission’s compensation fund. More detailed information about the Company’s activities and operations can be found on the official website at www.roboforex.com.

Admiral Markets AS has applied for a credit institution licence through the Estonian Financial Supervision Authority, which is currently processing the application.

Admiral Markets has made the application for a credit institution licence to support its core service offering – the provision of investment services.

The goals in obtaining the licence include offering payment services, deposit transactions by obtaining deposits from the public and loans issuance, in addition to current investment services. These services require a credit institution licence, hence the application for authorisation.

Thus, once the licence has been issued, Admiral Markets AS will be able to start offering financial services that are largely related to its current investment services.

“We are pleased to have taken this next step in offering our clients a superior investment experience,” says Sergei Bogatenkov, CEO of Admiral Markets AS. “As a multi-award winning broker, delivering a seamless trading experience is at the forefront of Admiral Markets’ business decisions. Should the Estonian Financial Supervision Authority approve this application, clients can expect us to further build upon our outstanding performance.”

Admiral Markets intends to provide the services under the licence in European Union countries.

Obtaining the credit institution licence will not affect the activity of Admiral Markets AS in offering investment and investment ancillary services.

The Estonian Financial Supervision Authority is not able to provide estimates about the time and anticipated results of the credit institution licence procedure.

About Admiral Markets

Admiral Markets is a leading online Forex and CFD trading provider. In addition to a wide range of financial instruments, Admiral Markets offers free educational materials, including analytics, webinars and seminars.