InvestMacro

Analytics by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.17479
• Open: 1.17654
• % chg. over the last day: +0.13
• Day’s range: 1.17580 – 1.17683
• 52 wk range: 1.0571 – 1.2557

The technical pattern on the EUR/USD currency pair is ambiguous. The trading instrument is in a sideways trend. Investors took a wait-and-see attitude before the Fed’s decision on the interest rate. Local support and resistance levels are: 1.17500 and 1.17800, respectively. We recommend opening positions from the key levels.

• – New home sales in the US at 17:00 (GMT+3:00);
• – Fed interest rate decision at 21:00 (GMT+3:00).

Indicators do not send accurate signals. The price has crossed 50 MA.

The MACD histogram is near the 0 mark.

Stochastic Oscillator is located in the neutral zone, the %K line has crossed the %D line. There are no signals.

• Support levels: 1.17500, 1.17100, 1.16700
• Resistance levels: 1.17800, 1.18100

If the price fixes above the resistance level of 1.17800, the EUR/USD quotes are expected to rise. The movement is tending to 1.18250-1.18500.

An alternative may be the decrease of the EUR/USD currency pair to 1.17100-1.16700.

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.31191
• Open: 1.31778
• % chg. over the last day: +0.45
• Day’s range: 1.31682 – 1.31751
• 52 wk range: 1.2361 – 1.4345

Yesterday, the bullish sentiment was observed on the GBP/USD currency pair. The growth of quotes exceeded 60 points. At the moment, the technical pattern is ambiguous. Investors expect additional drivers. The key support and resistance levels are 1.31500 and 1.32000, respectively. We recommend opening positions from these marks.

The news feed on the UK economy is calm.

Indicators do not send accurate signals: 50 MA has crossed 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is located in the positive zone, but below the signal line, which gives a weak signal to buy GBP/USD.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line has crossed the %D line. There are no signals.

• Support levels: 1.31500, 1.31000, 1.30700
• Resistance levels: 1.32000, 1.32400, 1.32800

If the price fixes below 1.31500, the GBP/USD quotes are expected to decline. The movement is tending to 1.31000-1.30700.

Alternative option. If the price fixes above the round level of 1.32000, we recommend considering purchases of GBP/USD. The target movement level is 1.32400-1.32800.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.29544
• Open: 1.29498
• % chg. over the last day: +0.01
• Day’s range: 1.29507 – 1.29581
• 52 wk range: 1.2059 – 1.3795

The technical pattern on the USD/CAD currency pair is ambiguous. Quotes are in a sideways trend. Investors expect additional drivers. The key support and resistance levels are 1.29400 and 1.29650, respectively. The positions should be opened from these marks. We recommend paying attention to the US news feed.

The news feed on the economy of Canada is calm.

The price has fixed between 50 MA and 200 MA, which are strong dynamic support and resistance levels.

The MACD histogram is near the 0 mark.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which indicates the bullish sentiment.

• Support levels: 1.29400, 1.29100, 1.28800
• Resistance levels: 1.29650, 1.30000, 1.33000

If the price fixes below 1.29400, the USD/CAD quotes are expected to decline. The movement is tending to 1.29100-1.28800.

Alternative option. If the price fixes above the resistance of 1.29650, it is necessary to look for entry points to the market to open long positions. The target movement level is to 1.30000-1.30300.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 112.749
• Open: 112.970
• % chg. over the last day: +0.15
• Day’s range: 112.751 – 112.912
• 52 wk range: 104.56 – 114.74

There is a variety of trends on the USD/JPY currency pair. At the moment, local support and resistance levels are 112.700 and 113.000, respectively. Investors expect the Fed decision on a key interest rate. We recommend paying attention to the US government bonds yield. Positions should be opened from the key levels.

The publication of important economic reports from Japan is not planned.

Indicators do not send accurate signals: the price is testing 50 MA.

The MACD histogram approached the 0 mark. There are no signals at the moment.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is crossing the %D line. There are no accurate signals.

• Support levels: 112.700, 112.450, 112.100
• Resistance levels: 113.000, 113.500

If the price fixes above the round level of 113.000, the USD/JPY quotes are expected to rise. The movement is tending to 113.500-113.750.

An alternative may be the decrease of the USD/JPY currency pair to 112.450-112.100.

Analytics by JustForex

by JustForex

The US dollar fell slightly against the basket of major currencies before the Fed meeting. Today, at the end of the meeting, the regulator will publish a decision on the interest rate. Financial market participants expect that the Fed will raise the interest rate by 25 basis points up to 2-2.25% per annum. Also, investors expect any signs of a further increase in the rate. The US dollar index (#DX) closed in the negative zone (-0.07%).

Yesterday, CB consumer confidence index was also published in the US, which counted to 138.4 in September and was better than the forecasted value of 132.2. This is the maximum value for the last 18 years, which indicates the economic growth in the country. Today, we recommend paying attention to the US news feed.

The “black gold” prices are consolidating. At the moment, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing a mark of $72.15 per barrel. At 17:30 (GMT+3:00) a report on crude oil inventories will be published.

Market Indicators

Yesterday, there was a variety of trends in the US stock market: #SPY (-0.09%), #DIA (-0.26%), #QQQ (+0.14%).

At the moment, the 10-year US government bonds yield is at the level of 3.09-3.10%.

– New home sales in the US at 17:00 (GMT+3:00);
– Fed interest rate decision at 21:00 (GMT+3:00).

by JustForex

By Gabriel Ojimadu, Alpari

By OilPrice.com

An oil price spike is starting to look increasingly possible, with a rerun of 2008 not entirely out of the question, according to a new report.

The outages from Iran are worse than most analysts expected, and bottlenecks in the U.S. shale patch could prevent non-OPEC supply from plugging the gap. To top it off, new regulations from the International Maritime Organization set to take effect in 2020 could significantly tighten supplies.

Put it all together, and “the likelihood of an oil spike and crash scenario akin to the one observed in 2008 has increased,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch wrote in a note. BofAML has a price target for Brent at $95 per barrel by the end of the second quarter 2019. In 2008, Brent spiked to nearly $150 per barrel.

The supply picture is looking increasingly worrying, with Venezuela and Iran the two principal factors driving up oil prices in the fourth quarter. Notably, the bank increased its estimate of supply losses from Iran 1 million barrels per day (mb/d), up from 500,000 bpd previously.

U.S. shale can partially make up the difference, but the explosive growth from shale drillers is starting to slowdown, in part because of pipeline bottlenecks. BofAML sees U.S. supply growth of 1.4 mb/d in 2018 but only 1 mb/d of growth in 2019.

That means that there isn’t the same upward pressure on WTI as there is on Brent, largely because infrastructure bottlenecks in the shale patch keep supplies somewhat stuck within the United States. And it isn’t just in West Texas where the constraints are causing problems. “[B]ottlenecks in the Permian basin could well extend to other areas such as the Bakken or the Niobrara, and we do not even rule out temporary export capacity constraints in the Gulf Coast as domestic output overwhelms logistics,” BofAML said in a note.

Meanwhile, the demand side of the equation is not as clear. For now, demand still looks strong. The IEA puts demand growth for 2018 at 1.4 mb/d, and Bank of America Merrill Lynch agrees. But BofAML says three important demand-side factors to watch, which could undermine the high price scenario.

First, the dollar is strong, which would likely prevent a run up in prices in the same way as in 2008. Second, higher debt levels in emerging markets means that many countries are in a weaker spot than they were in 2008. Third, capital could continue to flee emerging markets because of rising interest rates from the Federal Reserve, U.S. corporate tax cuts and U.S. tariffs.

Why the focus on emerging markets? Beyond the possibility of contagion, emerging markets represent the bulk of oil demand growth, so any faltering would upset the global demand picture. The strong dollar, higher debt and capital flight means that “significant [emerging market] oil demand destruction could follow if Brent crude oil spikes above $120/bbl,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch said.

Nevertheless, there are some ingredients in place that could lead to dramatic price spikes, even if the corresponding demand destruction makes the spike only temporary. BofAML puts total global supply outages at around 3 mb/d, only a bit lower than the recent peak of about 3.75 mb/d in 2014. And that doesn’t take into account the unfolding losses from Iran. In other words, if Iran loses around 1 mb/d of supply due to U.S. sanctions, as looks increasingly likely, total global supply outages could balloon to their highest in about two decades, not seen since the roughly 5 mb/d of outages during the 1990-91 Persian Gulf War.

Finally, the 2020 IMO regulations will force marine fuels to lower sulfur content from 3.5 percent to 0.5 percent. This will lead to a sharp increase in demand for diesel and other low sulfur fuels as the deadline for implementation approaches. “[T]he transition to a lower sulfur fuel specification will not likely be smooth,” BofAML notes.

At a minimum, it appears that bearish sentiment from within the oil and gas industry has evaporated. Bloomberg notes that on the earnings calls of 22 major energy companies for the third quarter, not once was the phrase “lower for longer” mentioned, the first time since 2015 that was true. It wasn’t too long ago that blistering U.S. shale growth was thought to have permanently lowered the marginal price of production, which would lead to a period of lower oil prices for the foreseeable future.

That mantra seems to have been fleeting as a growing number of analysts see higher prices ahead with concerns about the possibility of triple-digits.

“The market does not have the supply response for a potential disappearance of 2 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter,” Mercuria Energy Group Ltd. co-founder Daniel Jaeggi said in a speech at the S&P Global Platts Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference, according to Bloomberg. “In my view, that makes it conceivable to see a price spike north of $100 a barrel.” Meanwhile, the co-head of oil trading at Trafigura, another top oil trader, said that $100 oil was possible by the end of the year.

One of the key factors that will determine whether this happens or not is how Saudi Arabia responds.

“Our plan is to meet demand,” said Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih. “The reason Saudi Arabia didn’t increase more is because all of our customers are receiving all of the barrels they want.” His comments came after the OPEC+, which ended with no plans to increase output.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Saudi Aramco has told its customers that might be running short on Arab light crude in October, and that in the long run, it won’t be able to meet demand if Iran is knocked offline. “[W]e are heading to a price spike, likely $90 to $100” an oil trader told the WSJ. “It’s not just Iran that will suffer. It’s going to have a boomerang effect with rising gasoline prices” in the U.S.

Worse, Saudi Arabia has officially said that it could cover for Iran’s losses, even if most of Iran’s production goes offline. In the past, Saudi officials have suggested that they could produce up to 12.0-12.5 mb/d if it the market needed it. But Saudi sources told the WSJ that producing “11 million is already a stretch, even for just a few months.” With output already up to about 10.4 mb/d, that leaves a significantly smaller pile of spare capacity than is commonly thought.

“It’s tearing higher,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank A/S, according to Bloomberg. “Technicals and fundamentals seem to be pointing in the right direction at the moment and that can be quite a potent cocktail.”

Link to original article: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/100-Oil-Is-A-Distinct-Possibility.html

By Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com

By George Prior

XRP, currently the third largest cryptocurrency after Bitcoin and Ethereum by market cap, is going to gather momentum and its price is likely to reach the key threshold of $1.00 by year-end.

The forecast from Nigel Green, founder and CEO of deVere Group, one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organizations, comes as last week XRP achieved a 100 per cent gain, with other major digital currencies also performing well.

Mr Green comments: “There’s been an immensely positive buzz regarding cryptocurrencies in the last few weeks – with the standout being XRP.

“I believe that whilst the crypto market, in general, will be primarily bullish between now and the end of the year, it will be XRP that will continue to gather the most momentum in this period.”

He continues: “XRP will go on to gain more traction than many of its rivals because of its unique features, technologies and problem-solving capabilities.

“Many of these unique characteristics enable it to help businesses, including real estate and tech firms, to save money and speed-up and add more security to transactions.

“This is also why hundreds of financial institutions across the world are already working with XRP – and this is a trend that is set to continue and grow.

“In addition, XRP has been cleverly positioning itself to become a leading international facilitator of global remittances and inflows.  This is a huge and growing market, especially in the emerging economies of Latin America, Asia and Africa.”

Mr Green goes on to add: “Cryptocurrencies are the future of money and, clearly, XRP is proving to be one of the most useful cryptocurrencies for businesses, organisations and individuals.

“The use of XRP is set to increase and naturally this will positively impact its price.  I think it is likely that we’ll see it hit the $1.00 price level before year-end. It could even be double this in 12 months’ time as XRP adoption and usage soars.”

The deVere CEO concludes: “XRP can be expected to become a major player in the world’s shift away from fiat money over the next few years.”

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Author: Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex

The most interesting events are now taking place in the commodity market. The Brent crude continues making new highs for over a few years and is still downtrending. On Tue Sep 25, Brent is trading around $81.89 and is unlikely to stop there.

The energy commodities hype has a few reasons, one of them being the weak US dollar, which is logical, as the crude is a dollar denominated asset which rises when the greenback falls, and vice versa. Another reason are the results of the OPEC+ meeting last weekend, where the members and non-members talked the possibility of rising the oil production by 500k barrels per day, or even more, although no decisions have been taken, as OPEC+ decided to postpone this discussing to the next meeting that will take place in November.

Another important thing are the OPEC+ comments on continuing oil production regulation in case the inventories are too high, which helped the bulls a lot.

The most popular question in the markets now is how much higher crude oil may climb, with some saying $85 or even $100 is possible before the end of the year. The point is however that Brent crude has already added 20% to its value since early 2018, and reaching $100 will require the black gold to add 25% more, which is way too much, especially given the continuous growth over the last few weeks.

Meanwhile, the new ascending impulse broke out the significant highs and is now heading towards the new ones. The current trend is somewhat stable, as the price is moving inside a uniform channel. The impulse is approaching the upper major channel boundary at $82.20. After testing the resistance area, the price may pull back to the 50.00% Fibo retracement at $80.20. A correctional downtrend is going to start while the short term ascending channel line gets broken out near $81.25. The correction targets are at $80.66 and $80.20, while afterwards the price may start rising towards new highs.

Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the authors’ particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Article By RoboForex.com

The Japanese yen is losing ground against the US dollar, now trading around 112.93. The BoJ meeting minutes came earlier today, with so,me interesting news in it. A few BoJ board members said focusing on extremely mild monetary policy ‘weak points’ was necessary. This is kind of surprise, as these drawbacks have been previously pointed out by many, but not by the central bank itself.

According to the minutes, the July meeting saw some members vote for keeping flexible control over the asset yields, as it may help the market in general in the long term. Many monetary politicians are meanwhile sure the BoJ should work more in order to achieve the inflation target at 2%.

Special attention was dedicated to the yield volatility, as it may fluctuate twice as more active compared to the standard range. This should be taking into account when regulating asset buyouts.

The BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda mentioned in his speech that working out a sustainable inflation trend requires more time than anticipated before. Nothing certain may be said about the QE right now, with the most important thing being keeping the rates low for a long. According to the BoJ governor, the inflation is rising, which is positive for the Japanese economy.

The yen, however, hardly reacts to any domestic news, as the market participants are busy chasing the risks.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD is trading at 0.7264, above the Ichimoku cloud, which means there’s an uptrend forming. We expect a test of the upper cloud boundary at 0.7225, and then a rise to 0.7320, which may be confirmed with the price bouncing off the support area. This rise may be prevented in case price breaks out the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud and closes below 0.7175, which will be a signal for a further fall to 0.7085 and below.

NZD/USD

The NZD/USD is trading at 0.6642, above the Ichimoku cloud, which means there’s an uptrend forming. We expect a test of the signal lines at 0.6635, and then a rise to 0.6725, which will be confirmed with the price bouncing off the ascending trend line. This rise may be prevented in case price breaks out the lower boundary and closes below 0.6590, which will be a signal for a further fall to 0.6525.

USD/CAD

The USD/CAD is trading at 1.2959, below the Ichimoku cloud, which means there’s a downtrend forming. We expect a test of the lower cloud boundary at 1.2975, and then a downward pullback to 1.2840. which will be confirmed with the price bouncing off the lower boundary of the descending channel. This fall may be prevented in case price breaks out the upper boundary and closes above 1.3030, which will be a signal for a further rise to 1.3155 and above.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Analytics by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.17401
• Open: 1.17479
• % chg. over the last day: +0.03
• Day’s range: 1.17308 – 1.17621
• 52 wk range: 1.0571 – 1.2557

There is an ambiguous technical pattern on the EUR/USD currency pair. The trading instrument is moving in the flat. A unidirectional trend is not observed. Local levels of support and resistance are 1.17400 and 1.17700, respectively. Demand for the euro is supported by the positive comments by the ECB head Draghi. The official expects the acceleration of inflation in the coming months. The EUR/USD quotes are tending to grow. We recommend opening positions from the key levels.

• At 17:00 (GMT+3:00) we expect the consumer confidence index in the US.

Indicators do not send accurate signals. The price has crossed 50 MA.

The MACD histogram is near the 0 mark.

Stochastic Oscillator is located in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which signals the purchase of EUR/USD.

• Support levels: 1.17400, 1.17100, 1.16700
• Resistance levels: 1.17700, 1.18000

If the price fixes above the resistance level of 1.17700, further growth of the EUR/USD quotes is expected. The movement is tending to 1.18000-1.18250.

An alternative may be the reduction of the EUR/USD currency pair to 1.17100-1.17000.

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.30749
• Open: 1.31191
• % chg. over the last day: +0.28
• Day’s range: 1.31014 – 1.31229
• 52 wk range: 1.2361 – 1.4345

Currently, GBP/USD is consolidating. The technical pattern is ambiguous. The key range is 1.31000-1.31350. The pound remains under pressure amid uncertainty over the Brexit. The GBP/USD quotes are tending to decline. We recommend opening positions from the key levels.

The news feed on the UK economy is calm.

Indicators do not send accurate signals: 50 MA has crossed 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is located near the 0 mark.

Stochastic Oscillator is moving from the oversold zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which indicates the growth of GBP/USD.

• Support levels: 1.31000, 1.30600, 1.30300
• Resistance levels: 1.31350, 1.31650, 1.32000

If the price falls below the round of 1.31000, GBP/USD is expected to fall. The movement is tending to 1.30600-1.30300.

An alternative may be the correction of the GBP/USD currency pair to the level of 1.31650-1.32000.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.29243
• Open: 1.29544
• % chg. over the last day: +0.27
• Day’s range: 1.29441 – 1.29661
• 52 wk range: 1.2059 – 1.3795

The USD/CAD currency pair has begun to recover after a significant fall in the past two weeks. At the moment, quotes are testing the local offer zone of 1.29600-1.29800. The mark of 1.29300 is already a “mirror” support. The trading instrument is tending to grow. Positions must be opened from the key levels. We recommend you to keep track of current information regarding the NAFTA negotiations.

The news feed on Canada’s economy is calm.

The price has fixed between 50 MA and 200 MA, which act as strong dynamic levels of support and resistance.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, but below the signal line, which gives a weak signal to buy USD/CAD.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below %D, which indicates the bearish sentiment.

• Support levels: 1.29300, 1.28900
• Resistance levels: 1.29600, 1.29800, 1.30150

If the price fixes above 1.29600, further growth of the USD/CAD quotes is expected. The movement is tending to 1.30000-1.30150.

Alternative option. If the price fixes below the “mirror” support of 1.29300, you need to look for entry points to the market to open short positions. The target level of movement is tending to 1.29000-1.28800.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 112.422
• Open: 112.749
• % chg. over the last day: +0.22
• Day’s range: 112.745 – 112.978
• 52 wk range: 104.56 – 114.74

USD/JPY continues to show positive dynamics. At the moment, the quotes are testing the offer zone of 112.850-113.000. The key support is 112.600. The trading instrument is tending to growth. We recommend paying attention to the yield of the US government bonds. Positions must be opened from the key levels.

Investors expect economic reports from the United States.

The price has fixed above 50 MA and 200 MA, which signals the power of buyers.

The MACD histogram is located in the positive zone and above the signal line, which gives a strong signal to buy USD/JPY.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which also indicates the growth of USD/JPY.

• Support levels: 112.600, 112.400, 112.100
• Resistance levels: 113.000, 113.500

If the price fixes above the round level of 113,000, further growth of USD/JPY is expected. The movement is tending to 113.400-113.600.

An alternative may be reduction of the USD/JPY currency pair to 112.600-112.400.

Analytics by JustForex

by JustForex

The US currency weakened slightly against the basket of major currencies. Yesterday it became known that China refused to negotiate with the US regarding trade tariffs. The visit by Vice-Premier of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China, Liu He, which should be held this week, was canceled. The trade war between the US and China is escalating. The US dollar index (#DX) closed in the negative zone (-0.02%).

Yesterday, the ECB President, Mario Draghi, gave a speech at the European Parliament Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs. The official assumes that the core inflation in the Eurozone would intensify in the near future due to the expected acceleration of wage growth. Draghi also noted the stable growth of the Eurozone economy and the stability of the labor market.

The British pound is still in the focus of investors’ attention. Most of the government officials of the British Prime Minister Theresa May supported the variant of a trade agreement with the European Union, similar to the existing agreement between the EU and Canada.

The “black gold” prices show positive dynamics. At the moment, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing a mark of $72.25 per barrel.

Market Indicators

Yesterday, there was a variety of trends in the US stock market: #SPY (-0.33%), #DIA (-0.64%), #QQQ (+0.10%).

At the moment, the 10-year US government bonds yield is at the level of 3.09-3.10%.

– Consumer confidence index in the US at 17:00 (GMT+3:00).

by JustForex