Author Archive for InvestMacro – Page 297

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2019.01.22

Analytics by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.13603
  • Open: 1.13644
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.02
  • Day’s range: 1.13500 – 1.13636
  • 52 wk range: 1.1214 – 1.2557

EUR/USD overview

The Economic News Feed for 22.01.2019:

  • – Economic mood index ZEW (GER) – 12:00 (GMT+2:00);
  • – Secondary Real Estate Sales (US) – 17:00 (GMT+2:00).
EUR/USD

Indicator point to the power of the sellers, the price fixed below 50 MA and 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, which gives a weak signal to sell EUR/USD

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line which points to the bullish mood.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.13450, 1.13100
  • Resistance levels: 1.13750, 1.14100, 1.14500

If the price fixes below 1.13450 mark, consider selling EUR/USD. The movement will tend toward 1.13100-1.12900

Alternatively, the quotes can grow toward 1.14100-1.14300.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.28766
  • Open: 1.28911
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.30
  • Day’s range: 1.28832 – 1.28902
  • 52 wk range: 1.2438 – 1.4378

Yesterday GBP/USD was in a bullish mood. The GBP received support after Theresa May attempted to resolve the Brexit conundrum and asked the EU for more leniency. Right now the price is testing the key resistance at 1.29000, with the key support being 1.28600. You should open positions from these levels. The trading instrument has prospects for further growth.

At 11:30 (GMT +2:00) the UK will publish the Labour Market reports.

GBP/USD

The indicators do not provide precise signals, the price is testing 50 MA.

The MACD histogram is close to 0.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above %D line, which points to the bullish mood.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.28600, 1.28200, 1.27700
  • Resistance levels: 1.29000, 1.29400, 1.29800

If the price fixes above 1.29000, consider opening long positions. The price will move toward 1.29400-1.29600.

Alternatively the quotes can fall toward 1.28200-1.28000.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.32597
  • Open: 1.32903
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.15
  • Day’s range: 1.33267 – 1.33356
  • 52 wk range: 1.2248 – 1.3664

USD/CAD is in a bullish mood. Right now the key support and resistance levels are 1.33150 and 1.33400. You should open positions from these levels. The trading instrument has growth prospects. Keep an eye on the oil quotes dynamics.

The Economic News Feed for 22.01.2019 is calm.

USD/CAD

The price fixed above 50 MA and 200 MA which points to the power of the buyers.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone and above the signal line, which gives a strong signal to buy USD/CAD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought zone, the %K line is crossing the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.33150, 1.32800, 1.32500
  • Resistance levels: 1.33400, 1.33700

If the price fixes above 1.33400, expect further growth toward 1.33700-1.34000.

Alternatively, the quotes can fall toward 1.32800-1.32500.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 109.695
  • Open: 109.651
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.00
  • Day’s range: 109.417 – 109.478
  • 52 wk range: 104.56 – 114.56

USD/JPY has an ambiguous technical picture. The quotes are moving sideways. The investors are waiting for additional drivers. The key support and resistance levels are 109.300 and 109.600. You should open positions from these marks. Keep an eye on the US Treasury 10-year bonds yield.

The Economic News Feed for 22.01.2019 is calm.

USD/JPY

The price fixed between 50 MA and 200 MA which act as the dynamic support and resistance levels.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, which gives a weak signal to sell USD/JPY.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which points to a bullish mood.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 109.300, 109.000, 108.700
  • Resistance levels: 109.600, 109.900

If the price fixes below 109.300, expect the USD/JPY quotes to fall toward 109.000.

Alternatively, the quotes can grow toward 109.900-110.100.

Analytics by JustForex

The US Dollar Has Been Changing Slightly Against the Currency Majors

by JustForex

The US dollar did not change a lot against the basket of major currencies during yesterday’s trading session. Yesterday, the International Monetary Fund revised down the estimate for global GDP growth to 3.5% for 2019 from 3.7% forecasted earlier due to trade tensions, which persisted for most of 2018, as well as due to the weakening of the Eurozone figures. For 2020, the forecast counted to 3.6%. The US dollar index (#DX) has kept current levels (0.00).

The British pound slightly strengthened against the US dollar. Yesterday, British Prime Minister Theresa May attempted to resolve the situation with Brexit, proposing to ask the European Union to make new concessions on the Brexit issue. The Prime Minister believes that London should strive to achieve an agreement with Brussels. Some members of parliament stand for a second Brexit referendum. However, Theresa May does not support this idea and believes that the second referendum may damage the economy and society as a whole.

The “black gold” prices are falling. At the moment, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing the mark of $53.70 per barrel.

Market Indicators

Yesterday, the US stock market was closed due to the holiday.

The 10-year US government bonds yield is at the level of 2.74-2.75%.

The Economic Calendar for 22.01.2019:

– Reports on the UK labor market at 11:30 (GMT+2:00);
– German ZEW economic sentiment index at 12:00 (GMT+2:00);
– Existing home sales in the US at 17:00 (GMT+2:00);
– Consumer price index in New Zealand at 23:45 (GMT+2:00).

by JustForex

EURUSD: bulls trying to defend 1.1350

By Matthew Anthony, Alpari

Previous:

On Monday the 21st of January, trading on the EURUSD pair closed slightly up. The pair slid to 1.1357 during the European session, before partially recovering the day’s losses in the US session on account of the country’s national holiday. The bears have been dominating the market since breaking through 1.1514 on the 11th of January. Over the last few days, the bulls have failed to make their presence known during the rebounds.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

  • 12:30 UK: claimant count change (Dec), public sector net borrowing (Dec), ILO unemployment rate (Nov), average earnings (Nov).
  • 13:00 Germany: ZEW survey – economic sentiment (Jan).
  • 13:00 Eurozone: ZEW survey – economic sentiment (Jan).
  • 16:30 Canada: manufacturing shipments (Nov), wholesale sales (Nov).
  • 18:00 US: existing home sales (Dec).

EURUSDFig 1. EURUSD hourly chart.

Current situation:

In today’s Asian session, the euro has again turned south after the rebound to reach a session low of 1.1346. Thus doesn’t mean that the pair has found a level from which to rebound. Nevertheless, a rebound from 1.1346 would help the pair to recover to 1.1375.

The ECB meeting and US-China trade talks are the centre of attention among traders. They will also be keeping an eye on the headlines in the UK.

British Prime Minister Theresa May has not ruled out the possibility of exiting the EU without a deal. She has promised to be more flexible in discussing a withdrawal agreement, while rejecting the idea of a second referendum.

On the one hand, I’d like to see the euro drop to 1.13133, although the patterns and cycles point towards a reversal after the low is revisited, which has now happened. The pair is trading very close to the trend line, so I’d rather watch the market from the sidelines. The stochastic is down, which tells us that it’s about time for an upwards correction.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 21.01.2019 (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDRUB, GOLD, BRENT)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD has reached another downside target; right now, it is trading upwards. Possibly, the pair may be corrected to reach 1.1390. Later, the market may resume falling to break 1.1344 and then continue trading inside the downtrend with the target at 1.1305.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD has broken 1.2904 to the downside and may continue falling to reach 1.2809. Today, the pair may return to 1.2904 to test it from below and then form a new descending structure with the first target at 1.2809. After that, the instrument may start a new correctional growth towards 1.2900.

GBPUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF is still trading upwards; it keeps forming new consolidation ranges and breaking them to the upside. The next target is at 0.9973. After that, the instrument may be corrected towards 0.9922 and then continue trading inside the uptrend with the target at 1.0022.

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY is still moving downwards. Today, the pair may reach 110.35 and then start a new correction to return to 109.12. Later, the market may form one more ascending structure with the target at 110.60.

USDJPY
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is consolidating around 0.7163. Possibly, today the pair may break this level downwards to reach the target at 0.7107. After that, the instrument may resume growing towards 0.7160 and then form one more ascending structure to reach 0.7090.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB is still trading downwards. Today, the pair may reach 65.91 and then start a new correction towards 67.90. Later, the market may continue trading inside the downtrend to break 65.90. The short-term target is at 64.50.

USDRUB
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold has broken 1285.50 and may continue falling towards 1275.25. And that’s just a half of the third descending wave. The short-term downside target is at 1255.00.

GOLD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

BRENT

Brent is trading upwards. Possibly, the pair may reach 63.80. Later, the market may be corrected towards 57.00 and then continue trading inside the uptrend with the target at 64.00.

BRENT
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 21.01.2019 (GOLD, USDCHF)

Article By RoboForex.com

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, XAUUSD is still being corrected sideways; the closest target is the retracement of 23.6% at 1274.33. The next possible downside targets may be the retracements of 38.2 and 50.0% at 1259.40 and 1247.35 respectively. However, if the price breaks the high at 1298.74, the instrument may resume growing to reach its mid-term target at 1316.02 (the retracement of 76.0%).

GOLD1
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

In the H1 chart, the pair is breaking its consolidation range in the form of the Triangle downwards. The current descending impulse is heading towards the retracement of 23.6% at 1274.33.

GOLD2
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the correctional uptrend has already broken the retracement of 50.0% and right now is getting closer to the retracement of 61.8% at 0.9970. 61.8%. The next target may be the retracement of 76.0% at 1.0029. The key resistance level is the high at 1.0128; the support – 0.9716.

USDCHF1
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

In the H1 chart, the pair is trading upwards to reach the retracement of 61.8% at 0.9970. At the same time, there is a divergence on MACD, which may indicate a possible pullback after the price reaches its targets. The support is at 0.9922.

USDCHF2
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Take calculative steps to become a profitable trader

At the beginning of your trading career, the business will be very much interesting to you. The money will help you to be captivated by the marketplace of Forex. But from the start of trading into a marketplace, there will not be any good smiles in your face. Too much excitement makes traders blind. Many traders fall for too much of greed that they forget about some of the necessary things. Their planning for the traders never includes the process of risks management, position sizing etc. Even the traders who are willing to improve get mislead sometime. Some of them may have good setups with the position sizing, the profit targets and the risks per trades. Without proper knowledge about improvement into the Forex trading business, many traders cannot handle it properly. Today we are going to talk on that and try to make the most out of your trading business. After reading this article, your focus will be much more on improving your trading.

Never try to increase the risks

When traders get a sense of improvement into their trading edges, the first thing they lay their hand on is the risks per trade. This is a common behavior of many traders. But it is not actually legit to make some proper income from the trading process. To make profits from trades, there will be two things needed, one will be the lot size which is defined by the risks. The other one would be the pips. If the traders can manage the proper combination of both, there will not be too many risks per trade and the profits can bring good smiles to your face. All you will have to do is increase the timeframe for trading instead of the risks.

Focus on long term goals

Do you really want to succeed in the Forex market? If so, you must learn to trade the market just like the professional Singaporean traders? Making money in the retail trading business is a very challenging task. Many people often say CFD trading is only for the big players in the market. But this statement is not true. If you can develop a balanced trading system, just by using the leverage trading accounts of Saxo, you can easily make a decent profit. Forget about short term gain and set long term goals. Think like a businessman to beat the market.

The market analysis needs to be precise

With big trades, the traders will have to also concentrate on the market analysis. When the trades will be big time-wise, the position sizing will also be big for trading. Therefore, the traders will have to find more proper signals for trading with. The proper concentration on the improvements of the market analysis, it is possible. You will have to learn using more tools and tricks. Remember, the charts will not help the traders with too much information. You will have to learn using the support and the resistance zones for proper position sizing. Then there is the Fibonacci tool for the traders which can help to estimate the future volatility of the markets by analyzing the past signals. Take everything into considerations and try to learn about proper market analysis. Then your business will be good with a proper income

Always follow a trading routine

As well as concentrating on the trading process, traders will also have to think about routines. More importantly, the traders will have to think about the right timeframes for trading. Remember, we talking about investing more into the timeframes of the trades rather than into the risks? It is true because the traders will be able to work with more pronounced key swings and trends. Therefore, the position sizing will be great for the traders to earn good profits.

By Taylor Wilman

 

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2019.01.21

Analytics by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.13912
  • Open: 1.13603
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.31
  • Day’s range: 1.13739 – 1.13865
  • 52 wk range: 1.1214 – 1.2557

On Friday EUR/USD was in a bearish mood. The USD strengthened against the EUR due to positive breakthrough in the US/China trading conflict. Right now the technical picture is ambiguous. You should open positions key levels are 1.13650-1.14000. Further descend is possible.

The Economic News Feed for 21.01.2019 is calm. The financial markets are closed due to Martin Luther King day.

EUR/USD

The indicators point to the power of the buyers, the price fixed below 50 MA and 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is close to 0.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line which points to the bearish mood..

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.13650, 1.13300
  • Resistance levels: 1.14000, 1.14400, 1.14750

If the price fixed below 1.13650 expect the quotes to fall toward 1.13300-1.130000.

Alternatively the quotes can grow toward 1.14400-1.14600.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.29845
  • Open: 1.28766
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.86
  • Day’s range: 1.28375 – 1.28488
  • 52 wk range: 1.2438 – 1.4378

On Friday GBP/USD was in an agressive sell-off due to the weak economic reports. The volume of the retail sales lowered by 0.9% in December while the experts predicted 0.8%. Previous data were also reviewed for the worse – from 1.4% to 1.3%. The basis retail sale index reached 2.6% instead of 3.9%. You should open positions from the key levels of 1.28300 and 1.28750. The trading instrument can descend further.

The Economic News Feed for 21.01.2019 is calm.

  • – Economic Event (GB) – 00:00 (GMT+2:00);
  • – Economic Event (GB) – 00:00 (GMT+2:00);
  • – Economic Event (GB) – 00:00 (GMT+2:00);
GBP/USD

The indicators do not provide precise signals, the price is testing 50 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone but above the signal line which gives a weak signal to sell GBP/USD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line which points to a bearish mood.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.28300, 1.27900, 1.27500
  • Resistance levels: 1.28750, 1.29200, 1.29700

If the price fixes below 1.28300, look for the market entry points to open short positions. The movement will tend toward 1.27900-1.27700.

Alternatively the quotes can grow toward 1.29200-1.29450.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.32740
  • Open: 1.32597
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.14
  • Day’s range: 1.32829 – 1.32890
  • 52 wk range: 1.2248 – 1.3664

USD/CAD is in a variety of trends. On Friday Canada published an economic report which said that the basis consumer price index in December lowered by 0.2%, as expected. Right now the key levels are 1.32650 and 1.33000. You should open positions from these levels.

The Economic News Feed for 21.01.2019 is calm.

USD/CAD

The price fixed above 50 MA and 200 MA which points to the power of the buyers.

The MACD histogram is close to 0. There are no signals at the moment.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which gives a weak signal to buy USD/CAD.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.32650, 1.32400, 1.32100
  • Resistance levels: 1.33000, 1.33250

If the price fixes above the round 1.33000 consider buying USD/CAD. The movement will tend toward 1.33250-1.33500

Alternatively the quotes can fall toward 1.32400-1.32200.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 109.212
  • Open: 109.695
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.49
  • Day’s range: 109.584 – 109.631
  • 52 wk range: 104.56 – 114.56

On Friday the USD/JPY was in a bullish mood. The quotes grew by 70 points. At the moment, the technical picture is ambiguous, the investors are waiting for additional drivers. The key levels are 109.450 and 109.750. A technical correction is possible soon.

The Economic News Feed for 21.01.2019 is calm.

USD/JPY

The price fixed above 50 MA and 200 MA which points to the power of the buyers.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone but below the signal line, which gives aweak signal to buy USD/JPY.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is crossing the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 109.450, 109.100, 108.750
  • Resistance levels: 109.750, 110.00

If the price fixes below 109.450, the quotes will correct toward 109.100-108.750.

Alternatively the quotes can grow toward 110.000.

Analytics by JustForex

USD Looks Stable

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex

Early in a new week of January, EURUSD reached stability close to 1.1380 after several days of sales. Despite a lot of risks, the USD is looking pretty stable.

Investors’ attention is still focused on the US Government Shutdown. Now it’s safe to say that the current shutdown is the longest in the American history – the government hasn’t been operating for more than 30 days. What does it mean? It means that a lot of public sector employees, from librarians to regular civil servants, do not get any wages, because they are on unpaid leave. However, it was impossible to keep their wages: the Congress still hasn’t decided on financing the American government. The key stumbling block in this case is the Mexican border issue and the US President Donald’ Trump’s intention to build a wall to decrease the number of immigrants.

The USA have a holiday today. There will be few macroeconomic reports from the USA this week, that’s why the Government Shutdown will continue being the “hottest potato” among market players.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank will have another meeting, but market expectation are quite low. The time for the benchmark rate revision hasn’t come yet, it is expected to remain unchanged for at least 6 more months.

Looking at the H1 chart of EURUSD, one can see that the current correction inside quite a narrow trading range is taking too much time already. The previous descending impulse tested the support line of the projected channel. The current support level is at 1.1355. After rebounding from the support, the price is trying to break the resistance line of the short-term descending channel. If the pair breaks the resistance line at 1.1392, the instrument may start a new uptrend towards 1.1435 or even 1.1475. However, if the price fails to break the resistance line, the pair may break the support level and fall up to 1.1300.

Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the authors’ particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

 

 

The US Dollar Index Has Updated Two-Week Highs

by JustForex

On Friday, the US dollar strengthened against a basket of major currencies amid optimism in trade relations between the US and China. As it is known, both countries want to reach a compromise in trade issues. On January 30-31, Vice Premier Liu He should visit Washington. The US dollar index (#DX) updated the two-week high and closed in the positive zone (+0.29). Today, the US financial markets are closed due to the Martin Luther King Day.

On Friday, the British pound weakened against the US dollar after the publication of weak economic reports. Thus, the volume of retail sales in the UK fell by 0.9% in December, while experts expected a decline of 0.8%. Previous data were also revised downward from 1.4% to 1.3%. The core retail sales index counted to 2.6% instead of 3.9%. Today, during the Asian trading session data on China’s GDP (y/y) were published, the figure counted to 6.4% in the fourth quarter, as investors forecasted. Industrial production rose to 5.7% in December instead of 5.3%.

The “black gold” prices are falling. At the moment, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing $53.85 per barrel.

Market Indicators

On Friday, the bullish sentiment was observed in the US stock market: #SPY (+1.33%), #DIA (+1.33%), #QQQ (+0.99%).

The 10-year US government bonds yield is at the level of 2.77-2.78%.

The Economic Calendar for 21.01.2019:

Today, the news feed is fairly calm. The US financial markets are closed due to the Martin Luther King Day.

by JustForex

EURUSD: pair closing in on the balance line

By Matthew Anthony, Alpari

Previous:

Last week, all the majors lost ground against the US dollar except for the pound. The biggest loser against the greenback was the Kiwi (-1.35%), followed by the Swiss franc (-1.17%), yen (-1.11%), euro (-0.93%), Aussie (-0.77%), and the Loonie (0.01%). The pound, on the other hand, posted a rise of 0.27%.

In Friday’s US session, the EURUSD pair dropped to 1.1353. The euro incurred losses across the board, with the EURGBP cross suffering the most. The euro also came under pressure from the US dollar after a strong report on US industrial production.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

  • 10:00 Germany: PPI (Dec).
  • 14:00 Germany: German Buba monthly report.
  • Martin Luther King Jr. Day.

Tỷ giá EURUSD, khung thời gian 1H. Nguồn: TradingViewFig 1. EURUSD hourly chart.

Current situation:

I was right not to pay attention to the triple bullish divergence. From the upper line of the channel, the euro slumped to 1.1353. The single currency then recovered from the 157th degree by 22 degrees. This level is doing well at keeping the pair within the current trend. Given that the balance line runs through 1.1386, and the trend line through 1.1390, we could see the pair overreaching. It’s currently rising despite a lack of trading volume, so I’m expecting a drop to 1.1356. I’m counting on seeing the formation of a double base.

The pair may not end up declining. China has offered to help close the US’ trade deficit with them by increasing imports to the tune of 1 trillion USD. The optimism surrounding these trade negotiations between the US and China is good for risky assets, which is bolstering the euro. From a technical standpoint, the euro looks ready for a decline. Market participants are waiting for a trigger to start selling.