InvestMacro

USD: I remain net short through DXY. However, there are a few events in the short term that could see a short bounce.

First is the government shutdown; which is showing no real sign of it being resolved any time soon. However, the reason for highlighting it from an FX point of view is there are several pieces of economic data that haven’t been released due to the institutions that provided the data being closed.

Retail Sales, Housing data and some other specific economic monthly data are currently backing logged due to the shutdown. The USD thus is trading free of this information – going on passed government shutdown this data will be released and released relatively quickly once the government is back up and running – the USD will have reposition on this missing market data.

The second is news that China may purchase large amounts of US exports in an effort to shrink the trade balance a part of a possible US-China Trade deal.

While a significant increase in export demand is a for any currency a positive, a China trade increase presents other FX challenges specific to the USD:

1. Chinese imports from third countries in the main are priced in USD. Thus, to find a USD positive China would need to see “recycling” flows.

2. Also, an easing trade conflict would be a boost for global sentiment, which would be a downside weight on the USD as EM currencies would jump up.

Thus continue to expect USD downside on the ‘pausing’ Fed and a slower growth profile having peaked in 2018. Will be monitoring the outcomes of the US-China trade negotiations closely on a short term basis.

GBP: As expected the Withdrawal Agreement was emphatically defeated last week, and as expected a ‘no confidence’ motion also failed, net GBP positive. Next steps are clearly underway: cross-party talks have begun, and possible solutions are being mooted that would find a majority in Parliament. The consensus is growing that Brexit will take a softer position, like that of a Norwegian-style EU position.

The second vote on the Withdrawal Agreement is early this week. It is likely to fail again however, the base case is an exit and one that is likely to be EU focus. The view is the GBP will appreciate on a net base over the coming months.

By FPMarkets.com

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

Recently, we openly discussed the potential for global turmoil related to Europe, Asia, China, and South America. The issues before the globe are that the global economy may not be firing in sync and that there are credit and debt, as well as geopolitical, issues that persist. The interesting component of all of this is that the US stock market has staged a very impressive recovery over the past two weeks that have shocked even the best Wall Street analysts and researchers. While the US recovered from elections, the Fed, FANG price collapse and a Government Shutdown, the US stock markets appeared to be falling off a cliff. Then, almost exactly on Christmas Eve, the markets turned around – even in the midst of all of this uncertainty.

Now, nearly 3 weeks after Christmas, the US stock market appears to be shaking off the negativity and headed for higher price levels. China announced a plan to eliminate the trade barriers between the US by providing a 10-year plan to gradually eliminate any US trade deficit. Even though China has discussed this plan before, the US stock market ate it up like a starving man on a deserted island. The ES rallied over 3.35% this week. The NQ rallied over 3.0% and the YM rallied over 3.25% week.

SP500 Daily Chart

We are still expecting some decent price rotation over the next couple weeks, but the markets could continue to push higher attempting to reach our Upside Target Zone without any real break. Right now, it appears any decent earnings, even a “miss”, or any moderately good news is going to be eaten up by this market that just wants to rally.

ES Monthly Chart

This ES Monthly chart showing our TT Charger modeling system show the system never flipped into a bearish mode and that the Range Level on this chart is suggesting the markets could rally back to near all-time highs again. Of course, this could be many months into the future. Still, it appears the upside move is far from over as we expect a multi-month sideways/higher price as the market determines if we are still in a bull market or bear market.

NQ Monthly Chart

This NQ Monthly chart showing our TT Charger modeling system continues to suggest the bullish trend is intact and shows deeper support. This would indicate that the recent price rotation was now a severe risk in the technology sector and could have been a capital rotation/revaluation that was needed after such a massive upside price swing.

Either way, we need to understand the bias is neutral long term here. This is much like what we say in 2015 when the market was on the verge of a bear market, but Trump was elected and we had the presidential rally save the market until now.

What will save the market this time around? The US markets appear to still be bullish based on our longer-term modeling systems. Any real positive news (a deal with China, a Brexit deal, increased US economic output and/or any resolution to geopolitical issues) could be a catalyst for an explosive upside move.

Friday’s pop/rally proves this point clearly. Just the “hint” of some type of deal with China, even though it was nothing more than a whisper of some 10-year plan to gradually try to balance trade issues, resulted in a 1.25%+ upside move across the board. Imagine what could happen with some real positive news.

Pay attention to these markets moves.  2019 is poised to be a very exciting and profitable year for skilled traders and wise investors. Visit TheTechnicalTraders.com to get our daily and weekly analysis forecast complete with long term investing swing trading, and index day trade signals.

53 years experience in researching and trading makes analyzing the complex and ever-changing financial markets a natural process. We have a simple and highly effective way to provide our customers with the most convenient, accurate, and timely market forecasts available today. Our index, stock and ETF trading alerts are readily available through our exclusive membership service via email and SMS text. Our newsletter, Technical Trading Mastery book, and 3 Hour Trading Video Course are designed for both traders and investors. Also, some of our strategies have been fully automated for the ultimate trading experience.

Chris Vermeulen

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

For those that still believe the US markets are weak and poised for a total collapse, we want to bring something to your attention. Throughout weeks of uncertainty about China trade deals, the US government shutdown, continued Brexit issues and who knows what else… oh yeah US Q4 Earnings data, guess what has been taking place in some US sectors? That’s right, a rather solid price recovery.

Two of our favorite sectors to watch for signs of strength and weakness have been rocketing higher over the past few weeks after setting up a very deep price low near Christmas 2018. The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and the Financial Sector ETF (XLF). While the ES, NQ, and others are still waffling around trying to find the momentum to break out to the upside, pay attention to the other sectors that could be leading the way.

Weekly IWM (Russell 2000) Chart

This first Weekly IWM (Russell 2000) chart clearly shows the support zone that was set up in early 2018 after the February 2018 price collapse. Yes, the recent October 2018 price collapse drove price below that support level, but it appears this is a “wash-out” low price reversal where traders panicked on the news and other events. The fact that this recovery has taken place may cause some to consider this a “dead-cat-bounce”, but we’re not seeing that in our research. This could/should be the start of something that pushes prices sideways/higher for a few months, at which time we will need to see to these sectors and the rest of the markets are performing to determine if the overall market is still I a bull market or about to drop into its first bear market leg down.

Weekly XLF (Financial Sector) Chart

This next chart is a Weekly XLF (Financial Sector) ETF showing our Fibonacci price modeling system and a similar Support Zone. One thing that is rather interesting about these charts is that they are both moving substantially higher this week while recently breaking above our Fibonacci bullish trigger level (shown near the right side of the chart as a GREEN LINE). The XLF chart also shows that the current price is well above the BLUE and CYAN Fibonacci projected target levels. This indicates that price may be attempting to move back into the earlier Fibonacci price range (retracement range) to establish more rotation. This new price rotation will set up new Fibonacci modeling system trigger points and tell us where the next move is likely to target.

Yes, we do expect some downside rotation near current levels. We don’t expect this rotation to be very deep or concerning. Price must move in waves, up and down, to support future momentum higher or lower. Our Fibonacci modeling system is suggesting any current downside rotation will likely result in a new momentum move to the upside. Still, these sectors are on fire right now and we urge traders to be cautious of any longs because we are expecting some downside price rotation over the next week or two before the next rally.

Pay attention to these markets moves.  2019 is poised to be a very exciting and profitable year for skilled traders and wise investors. Visit TheTechnicalTraders.com to get our daily and weekly analysis forecast complete with long term investing swing trading, and index day trade signals.

53 years experience in researching and trading makes analyzing the complex and ever-changing financial markets a natural process. We have a simple and highly effective way to provide our customers with the most convenient, accurate, and timely market forecasts available today. Our index, stock and ETF trading alerts are readily available through our exclusive membership service via email and SMS text. Our newsletter, Technical Trading Mastery book, and 3 Hour Trading Video Course are designed for both traders and investors. Also, some of our strategies have been fully automated for the ultimate trading experience.

Chris Vermeulen

Our survey recorded a sharp pullback in positive investor sentiment and perceived management tone but outright bearish views remains muted

• Over half, or 52%, expect 4Q18 earnings to be In Line with consensus, though only 28% expect sequential improvement; nearly 60% anticipate FY 2019 guidance outlooks to be Weaker than 2018
• Sentiment reflects an overall cooling as those reporting a Bullish or Neutral to Bullish stance fell to 48% from 67% QoQ; 55% described management tone as Neutral to Bullish or Bullish, down from 84%
• Revenue growth is expected to Worsen, as is EPS growth to a lesser extent; notably, slightly more believe margins will remain intact than worsen given confidence in management’s ability to offset cost headwinds
• Nearly half of those surveyed expect Global PMI to Worsen over the next six months, with some of the most downbeat economic outlooks recorded since survey inception in Jun. 2015
• 44% report increasing cash holdings, with 75%+ placing More emphasis on balance sheet strength, operational excellence and scenario planning for a downturn as they assess investments

For a full copy of the report please click here

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is still consolidating and updating its lows. Possibly, today the pair may grow to test 1.1403 from below and then resume falling towards 1.1365. Later, the market may form one more ascending structure with the first target at 1.1414.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD has broken the range to the upside. Today, the pair may form a new descending structure to reach 1.2888 and then resume growing towards 1.3100 to complete this ascending wave. After that, the instrument may form a reversal pattern. The first downside target is at 1.2750.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF is still trading upwards; it keeps forming new consolidation ranges and breaking them to the upside. The next target is at 0.9973. After that, the instrument may be corrected towards 0.9888 and then continue trading inside the uptrend with the target at 1.0022.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY is trading to break 109.32. Today, the pair may reach 109.48 and then fall to return to 109.32. Later, the market may form one more ascending structure with the target at 110.13.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is still falling with the target at 0.7129. Possibly, today the pair may grow to reach 0.7222 and then form a new descending structure towards 0.7129. After that, the instrument may start a new growth to reach 0.7180.

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB has finished the ascending impulse; right now, it is consolidating around 66.51. Today, the pair may break the range to the upside and form one more ascending structure to reach 66.84. Later, the market may fall to return to 66.61 and then resume growing with the target at 67.25.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is still consolidating at the top around 1288.50 without any particular direction. Possibly, the pair may fall to reach 1282.20. Later, the market may form one more ascending structure with the target at 1297.61.

BRENT

Brent is trading upwards; it has broken 61.29 and may continue growing towards 62.38. Later, the market may form one more consolidation range near the highs. If the instrument breaks this range to the upside, the price may continue trading upwards with the target at 64.34; if to the downside – start a new correction towards 56.96.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the correctional downtrend continues. The next possible target is the retracement of 76.0% at 3389.00. The key target and the obstruction for the current descending movement is the low at 3121.90. The resistance level is at 3974.00. If BTCUSD breaks it, the instrument may expand its mid-term correction towards the retracement of 38.2% at 4428.00.

In the H1 chart, the pair is being corrected sideways and has already reached the towards the retracement of 38.2%. The next possible targets are the retracements of 50.0% and 61.8% at 3780.00 and 3857.00 respectively. The support level is the low at 3450.00.

ETHUSD, “Ethereum vs. US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after reaching the retracement of 50.0%, the descending correction has slowed down. The next possible targets are the retracements of 61.8% and 76.0% at 111.40 and 100.00 respectively. After breaking the local resistance 135.30, the price may continue the mid-term correctional uptrend towards the retracement of 61.8% at 168.60.

In the H1 chart, there was a convergence on MACD, making the pair reverse and start a new sideways correction, which has already reached the retracement of 38.2%. The next upside targets may be the retracements of 50.0% and 61.8% at 137.00 and 142.50 respectively. If the price breaks the local support at 113.50, the instrument may continue falling.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Analytics by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.13923
• Open: 1.13912
• % chg. over the last day: -0.07
• Day’s range: 1.13824 – 1.13985
• 52 wk range: 1.1214 – 1.2557

EUR/USD is still showing an ambiguous technical picture. The quotes are moving sideways. Yesterday the EU and the US published important economic reports. The consumer price index grew by 1.6%, as expected. The PMI by the Federal Reserve of Philadelphia grew to 17 in January, while the experts expected 9.7. The local support and resistance levels are 1.13850 and 1.14100. Positions should be opened from these levels.

The Economic News Feed for 18.01.2019:

• – Consumer Mood Index by the Michigan University (US) – 17:00 (GMT+2:00);

The indicators do not provide precise signals, the price is testing 50 MA.

The MACD histogram is close to 0.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is crossing the %D line. There are no precise signals.

• Support levels: 1.13850, 1.13500
• Resistance levels: 1.14100, 1.14500, 1.14850

If the price fixes above 1.14100 expect the quotes to grow toward 1.14500-1.14700.

Alternatively the quotes can fall toward 1.13500-1.13300.

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.28775
• Open: 1.29845
• % chg. over the last day: +0.78
• Day’s range: 1.29368 – 1.29473
• 52 wk range: 1.2438 – 1.4378

Yesterday the GBP/USD was in a bullish mood. The quotes grew by more than 100 points. Right now the quotes started to correct. The key levels are 1.29200 and 1.29700, you should open positions from these levels. The trading instrument has a tendency to descend.

The Economic News Feed for 18.01.2019:

• – Retail Sales Volume Report (UK) – 11:30 (GMT+2:00);

The price fixed above 50 and 200 MA which points to the power of the buyers.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone but below the signal line, which gives a weak signal to buy GBP/USD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which points toward a bearish mood.

• Support levels: 1.29200, 1.28700, 1.28200
• Resistance levels: 1.29700, 1.30100

If the price fixes above 1.29700 you should look for the market entry points to open long positions. The movement will tend toward 1.30100-1.30300.

Alternatively the quote can fall toward 1.28700-1.28500.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.32530
• Open: 1.32740
• % chg. over the last day: +0.20
• Day’s range: 1.32769 – 1.32880
• 52 wk range: 1.2248 – 1.3664

USD/CAD currently has a variety of trends. Investors are waiting for additional drivers. The key levels are 1.32500 and 1.32850. You should open positions from these levels. Keep in mind the US News Feed.

The Economic News Feed for 18.01.2019:

• – Basic Cusomer Price Index (CAD) – 15:30 (GMT+2:00);

The indicators do not provide precise signals, the price is testing 50 MA.

The MACD histogram is close to 0.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is crossing the %D line. There are no precise signals.

• Support levels: 1.32550, 1.32300, 1.32000
• Resistance levels: 1.32850, 1.33100, 1.33500

If the price fixes above 1.32850 expect the quotes to grow toward 1.33100-1.33300.

Alternatively the quotes can fall toward 1.32300-1.32000.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 109.102
• Open: 109.212
• % chg. over the last day: +0.05
• Day’s range: 109.462 – 109.596
• 52 wk range: 104.56 – 114.56

USD/JPY is in a bullish mood. During the last two days the quotes grew by 70 points. Right now the key levels are 109.350 and 109.650. You should open positions from these leves. A technical correction is possible soon.

The Economic News Feed for 18.01.2019 is calm.

The price fixes above 50 MA and 200 MA which points to the power of the buyers.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone above the signal line, which gives a strong signal to buy USD/JPY.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is crossing the %D line. There are no signals.

• Support levels: 109.350, 109.000, 108.650
• Resistance levels: 109.650, 110.00

If the price fixes below 109.350 expect the quotes to correct toward 109.000-108.650.

Alternatively the quotes can grow toward the round 110.000.

Analytics by JustForex

by JustForex

The US currency has been changing slightly against a basket of major currencies. Other majors also do not show active dynamics. The US dollar index (#DX) closed yesterday in the positive zone (+0.05). Yesterday, important economic data from the Eurozone and the US were published. Thus, the consumer price index in the Eurozone counted to 1.6% in December, as investors expected. The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index rose to 17.0 in January, although experts forecasted 9.7.

Investors’ attention is still focused on the US government shutdown. The US government has not worked for the 28th day. At the same time, there are no signals that the conflict between the US President Donald Trump and representatives of the Democratic Party in the US Congress regarding the construction of a wall on the border with Mexico will soon be settled.

The “black gold” prices demonstrate positive dynamics. At the moment, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing the mark of $52.60 per barrel. At 20:00 (GMT+2:00) a report on the US Baker Hughes oil rig count will be published.

Market Indicators

Yesterday, the bullish sentiment was observed in the US stock market: #SPY (+0.76%), #DIA (+0.80%), #QQQ (+0.79%).

The 10-year US government bonds yield is at the level of 2.74-2.75%.

– Retail sales in the UK at 11:30 (GMT+2:00);
– Core consumer price index in Canada at 15:30 (GMT+2:00);
– Michigan consumer expectations and sentiment at 17:00 (GMT+2:00).

by JustForex

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

Our Adaptive Fibonacci modeling system is suggesting Crude Oil may have already reached very strong resistance levels just above $50 ppb. It is our opinion that a failed rally above $55 ppb will result in another downward price move where prices could retest the $42 low – or lower.

You can see from this Daily Crude oil chart that price has formed a consolidated price channel between $50 and $53 ppb. This price channel aligns with a November 2018 price consolidation zone. It is our belief that any advance above $55~56 ppb, will result in a new upward price move to $64-65 ppb.

This Weekly crude oil chart highlights the Fibonacci projected price zones that represent the incredibly strong resistance level currently setup in Crude. The Weekly chart shows a zone between $50~56 as a critical resistance zone. One key element of Fibonacci price theory is that price must always attempt to seek out new highs or new lows as it rotates. Thus, if this current upside move fails to establish new highs above this resistance zone, then it must move lower to attempt to establish new lows. This means the $40 price target is a very viable immediate objective.

Global demand for oil, as well as global economic data, could be key to understand the future demand and price for oil. At this point, a new upper fractal top formation will generate new Fibonacci price targets to the downside. If our opinion proves to be correct, we will learn of these new price targets within a few weeks.

Want to learn how we called the move in Oil from $76 to $43? Visit TheTechnicalTraders.com to read all of our recent research posts. We help traders find and execute better trade by using our proprietary tools to keep them informed and to alert them to new trade opportunities. Visit TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can help you make 2019 a fantastic year.

Chris Vermeulen

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs. US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, EURUSD is testing the support level and forming Harami, Hammer, and Inverted Hammer reversal patterns. Judging by the previous movements, at the moment it may be assumed that after finishing the pullback the instrument may continue moving to the upside.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen”

As we can see in the H4 chart, USDJPY is still trading close to the resistance level and forming Shooting Star and Hanging Man reversal patterns. Judging by the previous movements, at the moment it may be assumed that after completing the correction the instrument may continue its descending tendency.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.