InvestMacro

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is forming another descending structure towards 1.1309. Possibly, the pair may continue forming the third descending wave to reach 1.1280 and then resume growing with the target at 1.1310. Later, the market may continue trading inside the downtrend towards 1.1300.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is forming a new descending structure towards 1.3000. After that, the pair may start a new growth to reach 1.306 and then resume falling with the short-term target at 1.2963.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF is forming a new ascending impulse towards 1.0030. Later, the price may start another decline to reach 1.0010 and then resume trading upwards with the first target at 1.0043.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY is forming another descending structure with the target at 110.53. Later, the market may resume trading upwards to reach 110.73 and then start a new decline to break 110.53. After that, the instrument may continue moving downwards with the short-term target at 110.27.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is forming the descending impulse towards 0.7051. After that, the instrument may move upwards with the target at 0.7109 and then resume trading inside the downtrend to reach 0.7030.

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB is consolidating above 65.38. According to the main scenario, the pair may fall to reach the target at 64.50. An alternative scenario implies that the price may be corrected towards 66.20 first and then resume falling with the above-mentioned target.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold has returned to 1324.50; right now, it is consolidating. Possibly, the pair may form one more descending structure to reach 1316.80. If the price breaks 1328.00 upwards, the instrument may start a new correction with the target at 1335.50.

BRENT

Brent is consolidating above 66.66. According to the main scenario, the pair may continue growing with the target at 68.45. However, if the price continues falling and breaks 65.70, the instrument may be corrected towards 60.65.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, BTCUSD is forming a new ascending correction inside the mid-term downtrend; it has tested the retracement of 23.6% at 3990.00 once again. After breaking this level, the instrument may BTCUSD may continue growing towards the retracement of 38.2% at 4525.00. The key support is the low at 3121.90.

In the H1 chart, the divergence mad the pair reverse and start a new pullback. The correctional targets are the retracements of 38.2, 50.0%, and 61.8% at 3813.00, 37609.00, and 3705.00 respectively.

ETHUSD, “Ethereum vs. US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the uptrend slowed down at the retracement of 76.0%. After completing the correction, ETHUSD may start a new rising impulse to reach the high at 160.44. The support level is the retracement of 50.0% at 130.20.

The H1 chart shows more detailed structure of the current correction. The targets of the correction are the retracements of 38.2% and 50.0% at 136.30 and 132.25 respectively.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Analytics by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.13362
• Open: 1.13330
• % chg. over the last day: +0.02
• Day’s range: 1.13301 – 1.13492
• 52 wk range: 1.1214 – 1.2557

USD index (#DX) keeps recovering. The investors are waiting for additional drivers. Yesterday the US published ambigous economic reports. At the same time, the American currency was supported by the growth of the 10-year government bonds yield to the weekly maximum. The negotations between the Washington and Beijing remain in the spotlight. Keep an eye on this issue and open positions from the key levels of 1.13250-1.13500.

The Economic News Feed for 22.02.2019:

• – IFO Business Index (GER) – 11:00 (GMT+2:00);
• – Consumer Price Index (EU) – 12:00 (GMT+2:00);
• – Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Report (US) – 18:00 (GMT+2:00);

Indincators do not provide precise data, the price has crossed 50 MA.

The MACD histogram is close to 0.

The Stochastic Oscillator is near the overbought zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which gives a weak signal to buy EUR/USD.

• Support levels: 1.13250, 1.13000, 1.12800
• Resistance levels: 1.13500, 1.13700, 1.14000

If the price fixes above 1.13500, expect the quotes to grow toward 1.13700-1.14000.

Alternatively, the quotes can fall toward 1.13000-1.12800.

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.30503
• Open: 1.30251
• % chg. over the last day: -0.08
• Day’s range: 1.30244 – 1.30513
• 52 wk range: 1.2438 – 1.4378

GBP/USD keeps being traded in a flat. There is no single defined trend. The ambiguousness around Brexit remains, which puts addtional pressure on the GBP. Keep an eye on the relevant data on this subject. The local support and resistance levels are 1.30250 and 1.30750. You should open positions from these levels.

The Economic News Feed for 22.02.2019 is calm.

The indicators do not provide precise signals, the price has crossed 50 MA.

The MACD histogram is close to 0.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is crossing the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

• Support levels: 1.30250, 1.29800, 1.29400
• Resistance levels: 1.30750, 1.31150, 1.31500

If the price fixes above 1.30750, expect the quotes to grow toward 1.31150-1.31400.

Alternatively, the quotes can correct toward 1.29800-1.28600.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.31752
• Open: 1.32252
• % chg. over the last day: +0.38
• Day’s range: 1.32160 – 1.32419
• 52 wk range: 1.2248 – 1.3664

Yesterday USD/CAD quotes retreated from the local minimums. The CAD is consolidating around 1.32100-1.32400 with an ambiguous technical picture. The investors are waiting for the retail sales report from Canada. Keep an eye on the oil quotes dynamics. You should open positions from the key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 22.02.2019:

• – Retail Sales Report (CAD) – 15:30 (GMT+2:00);

The indicators do not provide precise signals, the price fixed between 50 MA and 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone but below the signal line, which gives a weak signal to buy USD/CAD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which points to a bearish mood.

• Support levels: 1.2248 – 1.3664
• Resistance levels: 1.32400, 1.32600, 1.32800

If the price fixes below 1.32100, look for the market entry points to open short positions. The movement will tend toward 1.31800-1.31600.

Alternatively, the quotes can grow toward 1.32600-1.32800.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 110.828
• Open: 110.689
• % chg. over the last day: -0.14
• Day’s range: 110.620 – 110.808
• 52 wk range: 104.56 – 114.56

The safe haven currency keeps trading in a long flat. The technical picture is ambiguous. The USD/JPY quotes are testing the local support and resistance levels at 110.650 and 110.900. Keep an eye on the US Treasury bonds yield. The financial market participants are waiting for news on the US/China trading negotiations.

In January, Japanese national basis index of consumer prices confirmed the forecasts and reached 0.8%.

The indicators do not provide precise data, the price has crossed 50 MA and 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is close to 0.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is crossing the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

• Support levels: 110.650, 110.450, 110.250
• Resistance levels: 110.900, 111.100, 111.500

If the price fixes below the support level of 110.650, expect the quotes to rise toward 110.400-110.200.

Alternatively, the quotes can grow toward 111.100-111.400.

Analytics by JustForex

by JustForex

The US dollar is moving without a clear dynamic against the basket of major currencies. Yesterday, the dollar index (#DX) closed the trading session with a slight increase (+0.18%). The United States has published ambiguous statistics. Core durable goods orders rose by 0.1% in December instead of 0.2%. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index declined significantly in February and counted to -4.1, while investors expected growth to 15.6. Existing home sales counted to 4.94M in January and were worse than market expectations at the level of 5.01M. At the same time, the American currency was supported by the growth in the US government bonds yield to a weekly maximum.

The ECB monetary policy meeting account did not have a significant impact on the euro. Regulator considers the possibility of launching the next round of targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO) for Eurozone banks. This means a likely increase in stimulation in the Eurozone. The regulator wants to sum whether the slowdown in economic growth in the Eurozone is enough to require the launch of a new round of TLTRO.

The British pound is being traded near monthly highs against the US dollar. Yesterday, European Commission President, Jean-Claude Juncker, said that he was not optimistic about the negotiations with the UK about avoiding the “tough” Brexit. It also became known that the country would not have time before March 29, the date of Brexit, to conclude new agreements on the conditions of cooperation with many countries outside the EU, which would significantly complicate Britain’s trade relations with partners.

The “black gold” prices became stable. At the moment, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing the mark of $57.10 per barrel. At 20:00 (GMT+2:00), a report on the US Baker Hughes total rig count will be published.

Market Indicators

Yesterday, the bearish sentiment was observed in the US stock market: #SPY (-0.36%), #DIA (-0.37%), #QQQ (-0.37%).

The 10-year US government bonds yield has been growing. Currently, the indicator is at the level of 2.68-2.69%.

– German IFO business climate index at 11:00 (GMT+2:00);
– Consumer price index in the Eurozone at 12:00 (GMT+2:00);
– Statistics on retail sales in Canada at 15:30 (GMT+2:00);
– Fed monetary policy report at 18:00 (GMT+2:00).

We also recommend paying attention to the speech by the ECB President.

by JustForex

By Vadim Iossub, Alpari

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

This Part II of our research post regarding the future potential of any very deep market correction and/or a potential new-age market rally based on our presumption that the global market dynamics have changed dramatically over the past 20+ years.  Are the market gurus correct in thinking the next big move will be to the downside?  Or are they missing key aspects of the global market dynamics that point to a massive upside rally that is setting up for the future.  Today, we continue to explore some of the key elements that we believe present a total scope of the potential for the global markets.

In Part I of this article, we highlighted how globalization changed the planet and increased inter-dependence across the globe for economies and governments.  The point we wanted to make from the first segment was to highlight the fact that the current world economies are vastly different than the global economy prior to 1980 or 1970.  Over the past 20+ years, the world’s economies have become more and more connected and interdependent on one another.  Additionally, global investors and financial institutions have become heavily interconnected and reliant on the global market economies of the world.  The reality is, the world is vastly different than it was 40+ years ago in terms of finance, banking, and investment objectives.

Today lets focus on the world’s central banks and their partners – the global banking/finance enterprises.  Something very interesting has taken place over the past 20 years.  The world’s central banks have avoided crisis and controversy by pouring over $20 Trillion

The wealth and capital that has been created over the past 50 years have acted in multiple means to drive social, economic and human improvement over time.  Please take a moment to consider in 1970, the total World Per Capita GDP was $802.123.  In 2017 the total World Per Capita GDP was $10,721.609 – this represents a massive 1337% increase over the past 50 years or a total of 26% annually over this span of time.

As the total global debt rose, the amount of capital that entered the markets also rose.  At a time when the capital investment was somewhat isolated (in the 1970s), a boom of globalization and cross-nation industrialization/manufacturing created a massive amount of wealth and opportunity for people around the globe.  This resulted in a massive 26% average annual increase in global GDP since 1970.

Additionally, the US has been a major driving force in the creation of this new wealth and prosperity.  Throughout the late 1980s and 1990s, an incredible new technology launched globalization across almost all nations and increased the ability for all nations to enact new enterprises and commerce in a way that was never even imagined before – the Internet.  We will show charts that support our points that Per Capita output rose dramatically throughout this time frame with very little central bank support.

(Source : https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?end=2017&start=1970)

Consider this very important fact regarding the incredible growth of global GDP; after the year 2000, total global capitalization more than DOUBLED over the past 19 years.  Yes, that is correct, the amount of capital within the world right now is more than double the total global capitalization that was accumulated over the past 250+ years.  The world entered a period where the September 11 attack on the US disrupted the global markets with such force, that a massive amount of capital was deployed to offset the global risks.  Again, the 2008-09 global credit crisis created another massive risk event where even more capital was deployed throughout the planet to support the global banking markets and to support institutional infrastructure that allows for continued global growth.

Now, let’s compare this GDP growth to the actual US Federal Reserve total debt.  We find it interesting that massive amounts of recent debt have yet to really create any recent massive increases in GDP output.  We believe this is a result of a “restructuring” process throughout the global economy following the 2009 through 2014 global market recovery process.  In other words, the total global economies have yet to begin firing on all cylinders again and, after a sufficient period of “restructuring”, we believe the global economies will begin to re-sync with renewed optimism and opportunity.  Think of this “re-syncing event” as a global revaluation event where proper levels of valuations are attained before a new increase in global GDP output will resume.

The timing of the past 40+ years may have played an important role in providing for the recent GDP increases as well as the global credit market events that have resulted in massive central bank intervention.  Our theory is that after the US Fed interest rate peak, near 1982, the continued globalization process (outsourcing of the US economy to other sources throughout the planet) resulted in a “reversion process” within the US that allowed for massive growth in foreign markets while revaluing the US markets to suitable levels and allowing for a transition process to take place across the globe.

This transition process is now mostly complete and the recent 2009~2014 credit crisis that recapitalized the planet with capital/cash has currently primed the global economic engine for a spark.  The only thing we’re waiting on right now is for the global markets to settle the “revaluation phase” and latch onto some new technology or infrastructure project that will launch a new economic boom cycle.  Within the past 20+ years, the US Fed has pumped nearly $16 Trillion dollars into the global economy (+300% compared to 1999 levels) and the Global GDP output levels have risen from roughly 5.5k to 10.9k (+200% compared to 1999 levels).  Comparatively, from 1970 to 1999, the US Fed had pumped over $6 trillion into the global economy (over 450% from 1970 levels) and GDP rose from 0.8K to $5.5k over that same time (+680%).  If our analysis is correct, global GDP should begin to increase dramatically and should target levels well above $15~18k within a 10~20 year span.

Let that sink in for a bit as we prepare for Part III of this research post.

If you want to join a group of professional traders, researchers, and friends, then visit TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades.  Take a look at some of our recent winners to see how we help people, just like you, create success.  We believe 2019 and 2020 will be incredible years for skilled traders and we are executing at the highest level we can to assist our members.  In fact, we are about to launch our newest technology solution to better assist our members in creating future success.  Isn’t it time you invested in your future success by joining a team of professionals dedicated to giving you an advantage in the markets every day?

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.
TheTechnicalTraders.com

Article By RoboForex.com

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, XAUUSD has once again broken the resistance level and formed several Shooting Star and Hanging Man reversal patterns. Judging by the previous movements, it may be assumed that after finishing the correction the instrument may continue its ascending movement.

NZDUSD, “New Zealand vs. US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, NZDUSD is still trading close to the resistance level and forming Hanging Man, Doji, and Harami reversal patterns. Judging by the previous movements, it may be assumed that the instrument may complete another correction and then continue its growth.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is trading at 0.7093; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the upside border of the cloud at 0.7120 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.7005. Another signal to confirm further descending movement is the price’s rebounding from the resistance level. However, the scenario that Implies further decline may be cancelled if the price breaks the upside border of the cloud and fixes above 0.7155. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.7235.

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

NZDUSD is trading at 0.6810; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the downside border of the cloud at 0.6805 and then resume moving upwards to reach 0.6915. Another signal to confirm further ascending movement is the price’s rebounding from the support level. However, the scenario that Implies further growth may be cancelled if the price breaks the downside border of the cloud and fixes below 0.6790. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 0.6685.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

USDCAD is trading at 1.3200; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the downside border of the cloud at 1.3225 and then resume moving downwards to reach 1.3050. Another signal to confirm further descending movement is the price’s rebounding from the resistance level. However, the scenario that implies further decline may be cancelled if the price breaks the upside border of the cloud and fixes above 1.3275. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1.3365. After breaking the channel’s downside border and fixing below 1.3145, the price may continue moving downwards.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Analytics by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.13398
• Open: 1.13362
• % chg. over the last day: -0.03
• Day’s range: 1.13205 – 1.13631
• 52 wk range: 1.1214 – 1.2557

Yesterday the major currencies were calm. The FOMC Minutes did not affect the USD. The Federal Reserve officials mentioned that the US economy and the Labour Market remain stable. At the same time, the regulator plans to track the growing risks in the world economy more carefully, and is not going to hurry with raising the key interest rates this year. The trading instrument is testing 1.13600-1.13700. 1.13300 acts as the key support. You should open positions from these levels.

The Economic News Feed for 21.02.2019:

• – Array of Reports on Business Activity (EU) – 11:00 (GMT+2:00);
• – Bank of Europe Meeting on Monetary Policy (EU) – 14:30 (GMT+2:00);
• – Durable Goods Sales Report (US) – 15:30 (GMT+2:00);
• – Philadelfia’s Federal Reserve’s PMI (US) – 15:30 (GMT+2:00);
• – Secondary Real-Estate Sales (US) – 17:00 (GMT+2:00);

The indicators do not provide precise signals, the price crossed 50 MA.

The MACD histogram is close to 0.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is crossing the %D line. There are no signals.

• Support levels: 1.13300, 1.13000, 1.12800
• Resistance levels: 1.13700, 1.14000, 1.14400

If the price crosses above 1.13700, expect the quotes to grow toward 1.14000-1.14200.

Alternatively, the quotes can descend toward the round 1.13000.

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.30605
• Open: 1.30503
• % chg. over the last day: -0.15
• Day’s range: 1.30261 – 1.30876
• 52 wk range: 1.2438 – 1.4378

GBP/USD is stabilizing after a sharp growth. The trading instrument is consolidating. The GBP/USD quotes are testing the key support and resistance levels: 1.30250 and 1.30850. The financial market participants are watching the Brexit situation. Theresa May declared that the Brexit negotiations are so far successful. The pound can recover further. You should open positions from the key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 21.02.2019 is calm.

The indicators point to the power of the buyer: the price fixed above 50 MA and 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, which recommends buying GBP/USD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line which points to bullish mood.

• Support levels: 1.30250, 1.29800, 1.29400
• Resistance levels: 1.30850, 1.31150, 1.31500

If the price fixes above 1.30850, the quotes are expected to grow toward 1.31250-1.31400.

Alternatively, the quotes can descend toward 1.29800-1.28600.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.32117
• Open: 1.31752
• % chg. over the last day: -0.27
• Day’s range: 1.31635 – 1.32065
• 52 wk range: 1.2248 – 1.3664

USD/CAD is showing an ambiguous technical picure. Right now the CAD is in a flat. USD/CAD is testing the key support and resistance levels: 1.31800 and 1.32100. The trading instrument has a tendency to descend. An additional support is provided by the positive oil quotes dynamics. You should keep an eye on the US economic reports. You should open positions from the key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 21.02.2019:

• – Official Statement by the Head of Bank of Canada (CAD) – 19:35 (GMT+2:00);

The indicators do not provide precise signals, the price is testing 50 MA, which acts as a strong dynamic resistance.

The MACD histogram is close to 0.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is crossing the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

• Support levels: 1.31800, 1.31500
• Resistance levels: 1.32100, 1.32300, 1.32600

If the price fixes below the 1.31800 support level, you should expect a further descend of the USD/CAD quotes. The movement will tend toward 1.31500-1.31300.

Alternatively, the quotes can grow toward 1.32300-1.32500.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 110.607
• Open: 110.828
• % chg. over the last day: +0.12
• Day’s range: 110.591 – 110.861
• 52 wk range: 104.56 – 114.56

The safe haven currency is stable. The USD/JPY quotes are consolidating at 110.650-110.900. The financial market participants are waiting for additional drivers. The US economic reports are in the spotlight. Keep an eye on the relevant data regarding the US/China negotiations and open positions from the key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 21.02.2019 is calm.

The indicators do not provide precise data, the price has crossed 50 MA and 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is close to 0.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which points to a bearish mood.

• Support levels: 110.650, 110.450, 110.250
• Resistance levels: 110.900, 111.100, 111.500

If the price fixes below 110.650, expect the quotes to fall toward 110.400-110.200.

Alternatively, the quotes can fall toward 111.100-111.400.

Analytics by JustForex

by JustForex

The US dollar is strengthening against a basket of major currencies amid news from the United States and China. It is reported that the negotiators of the United States and China in Washington are developing several memorandums of intentions, which will form the basis of a large-scale trade agreement. These memorandums cover areas including agriculture, non-tariff barriers, services, technology transfer, and intellectual property. The enforcement mechanism is still unclear, but most likely, tariffs will be imposed if conditions are not met.

In addition, financial market participants assess the FOMC meeting minutes. Fed officials expect to end the reduction of assets on the Central Bank’s balance sheet this year, but do not rule out the fact that the increase in the key interest rate can be continued. The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Mary Daly, said that the US Central Bank probably would not hasten to increase rates until inflation strengthened. The dollar index (#DX) closed in the red (-0.06%) yesterday.

The British pound strengthened against the US dollar after a meeting between the British Prime Minister, Theresa May, and European Commission President, Jean-Claude Juncker. Officials met to agree on a soft Brexit finally. In general, the negotiations were successful and the officials agreed to seek an optimal solution for the exit, which would suit both parties.

The “black gold” prices are rising against the optimism in trade negotiations between the US and China. At the moment, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing the mark of $57.25 per barrel. At 18:00 (GMT+2:00), a report on crude oil inventories will be published in the US.

Market Indicators

Yesterday, there was a variety of trends in the US stock market: #SPY (+0.20%), #DIA (+0.27%), #QQQ (-0.02%).

The 10-year US government bonds yield is at 2.64-2.65%.

– German manufacturing PMI at 10:30 (GMT+2:00);
– Publication of the ECB monetary policy meeting account at 14:30 (GMT+2:00);
– Core durable goods orders in the US at 15:30 (GMT+2:00);
– Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index at 15:30 (GMT+2:00);
– Existing home sales in the US at 17:00 (GMT+2:00).

We also recommend paying attention to the speech by the Bank of Canada Governor.

by JustForex